Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 8, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Gil Vicente FC
Estrela 		46.2%
25.4%		28.3%
-115
+370
-125
+370
1.30
0.89		2.19
o2¼-108
u2¼-111

Porto
Benfica 		23.7%
51.5%		24.8%
+270
+114
+260
+115
1.01
1.62		2.63
o2¼-102
u2¼-117

Vitoria
Santa Clara 		34.8%
36.4%		28.8%
+200
+165
+195
+165
1.10
1.14		2.24
o2-120
u2¼-138

Games for Mar 7, 2026
Games for Mar 9, 2026

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Casa Pia AC
Estoril 		17.4%
59.6%		22.9%
+355
-132
+355
-135
2.63
o2½-118
u2¾-123

1st H
16:00		0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Arouca
Rio Ave		27.7%
42.8%		29.5%
+192
+160
+190
+155
1
1		-1.21500-1.21147-1.22075
Sporting CP
Famalicao		71.1%
11.3%		17.6%
-304
+825
-350
+900
1
0		-0.31714-0.30171-0.34062
Chaves
FC Vizela		18.8%
57.2%		24.1%
+267
+110
+250
+115
1
0		-1.33720-1.30092-1.67371
Moreirense
Benfica		4.6%
84.7%		10.7%
+796
-286
+800
-325
0
3		-0.33363-0.31680-0.16623
Boavista
Arouca		19.2%
56.1%		24.6%
+398
-143
+400
-145
1
2		-0.56874-0.57481-0.57782
Casa Pia AC
Portimonense		31.1%
38.8%		30.1%
+197
+157
+190
+160
2
2		-1.21164-1.18215-1.20071
Rio Ave
Estrela		32.5%
37.4%		30.1%
+197
+160
+210
+150
2
2		-1.18104-1.16437-1.20184
Braga
Estoril		59.5%
17.7%		22.7%
-137
+376
-140
+350
1
0		-0.57905-0.58727-0.51879
Famalicao
Porto		5.3%
83.1%		11.5%
+1190
-400
+1300
-475
2
2		-1.88823-1.92189-2.16100
SC Farense
Vitoria		12.6%
66.9%		20.5%
+548
-176
+560
-200
1
1		-1.48466-1.50810-1.58309
Sporting CP
Gil Vicente FC		70.9%
10.8%		18.3%
-334
+1002
-380
+1000
4
0		-0.29383-0.28303-0.34414
Estoril
Casa Pia AC		29.0%
42.3%		28.7%
+164
+213
+165
+200
0
0		-1.12067-1.13029-1.24845
Vitoria
Porto		10.2%
72.2%		17.6%
+796
-275
+750
-300
2
1		-2.23073-2.19149-2.28573
Estrela
Moreirense		19.6%
56.0%		24.4%
+256
+121
+270
+110
2
2		-1.22755-1.24223-1.40993
Portimonense
Chaves		28.4%
42.4%		29.2%
+243
+125
+245
+120
3
2		-1.26734-1.28913-1.25769
Benfica
Sporting CP		29.4%
44.0%		26.6%
+253
+112
+240
+110
1
2		-0.78292-0.79264-0.82050
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.33734 
Sportsbooks20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.34378 
DRatings20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.34550
-0.00816
-0.00173

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).