Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 8, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Gil Vicente FC
Estrela 		46.2%
25.4%		28.3%
-120
+370
-125
+370
1.30
0.89		2.19
o2¼-108
u2¼-111

Porto
Benfica 		23.7%
51.5%		24.8%
+270
+113
+260
+115
1.01
1.62		2.63
o2¼-102
u2¼-117

Vitoria
Santa Clara 		34.8%
36.4%		28.8%
+200
+155
+195
+165
1.10
1.14		2.24
o2-115
u2+100

Games for Mar 7, 2026
Games for Mar 9, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Boavista
Famalicao		23.1%
52.1%		24.8%
+275
+120
+280
+110
1
1		-1.19630-1.21372-1.39412
Benfica
Porto		32.1%
40.3%		27.6%
+209
+138
+195
+140
0
5		-0.89617-0.92402-0.90867
SC Farense
Sporting CP		4.2%
85.0%		10.8%
+1914
-706
+2250
-1100
2
3		-0.16449-0.13592-0.16284
FC Vizela
Portimonense		30.7%
39.5%		29.8%
+199
+156
+190
+155
0
0		-1.21949-1.21147-1.21009
Gil Vicente FC
Casa Pia AC		31.3%
39.4%		29.3%
+196
+170
+195
+165
0
0		-1.15728-1.14709-1.22854
Estrela
Braga		6.9%
79.3%		13.8%
+750
-275
+800
-310
0
3		-0.34736-0.32903-0.23241
Vitoria
Estoril		44.6%
27.4%		28.0%
+145
+209
+125
+225
3
1		-0.92083-0.86034-0.80694
Rio Ave
Moreirense		25.6%
46.3%		28.1%
+239
+140
+260
+130
0
0		-1.16286-1.13206-1.27018
Arouca
Chaves		39.4%
30.9%		29.6%
+120
+237
+120
+235
5
1		-0.82244-0.83873-0.93019
Braga
Boavista		59.6%
18.0%		22.5%
-135
+397
-140
+375
4
0		-0.58589-0.58805-0.51777
Sporting CP
Rio Ave		67.2%
12.6%		20.3%
-416
+1450
-425
+1200
3
3		-1.87627-1.85745-1.59682
Portimonense
Benfica		3.4%
87.2%		9.3%
+2400
-927
+2175
-1100
0
4		-0.13918-0.13726-0.13673
Porto
Gil Vicente FC		68.1%
12.3%		19.6%
-209
+615
-225
+625
1
1		-1.55225-1.55519-1.62882
Estoril
FC Vizela		23.3%
50.2%		26.5%
+203
+148
+195
+140
3
3		-1.25285-1.27236-1.32837
Casa Pia AC
Vitoria		10.8%
70.7%		18.4%
+525
-156
+590
-190
2
0		-1.85489-1.98036-2.22470
Chaves
Estrela		22.4%
51.9%		25.7%
+326
-104
+330
-110
1
1		-1.27011-1.27300-1.35767
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks30-0-3 (0.500)0-1.37260 
Sportsbooks30-0-3 (0.500)0-1.36598 
DRatings30-0-3 (0.500)0-1.38811
-0.01551
-0.02214

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).