Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 8, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Gil Vicente FC
Estrela 		46.2%
25.4%		28.3%
-120
+370
-125
+370
1.30
0.89		2.19
o2¼-108
u2¼-111

Porto
Benfica 		23.7%
51.5%		24.8%
+270
+113
+260
+115
1.01
1.62		2.63
o2¼-103
u2¼-115

Vitoria
Santa Clara 		34.8%
36.4%		28.8%
+200
+156
+195
+165
1.10
1.14		2.24
o2-115
u2+100

Games for Mar 7, 2026
Games for Mar 9, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Famalicao
Arouca		22.0%
52.8%		25.2%
+235
+135
+215
+130
2
3		-0.87671-0.88242-0.63887
Sporting CP
Moreirense		67.8%
12.6%		19.6%
-273
+815
-330
+900
2
0		-0.34613-0.31278-0.38881
SC Farense
Braga		7.4%
77.8%		14.8%
+554
-209
+550
-230
1
2		-0.41346-0.41059-0.25158
Gil Vicente FC
Estoril		28.0%
43.3%		28.7%
+244
+125
+255
+115
3
1		-1.26016-1.31557-1.27332
FC Vizela
Benfica		4.1%
86.1%		9.8%
+1900
-567
+1450
-600
1
6		-0.17516-0.20360-0.14959
Arouca
Casa Pia AC		37.0%
33.0%		29.9%
+163
+198
+160
+195
0
1		-1.12760-1.13199-1.10866
Estrela
Porto		4.4%
84.8%		10.8%
+1400
-500
+1400
-550
0
2		-0.21342-0.21657-0.16484
Vitoria
Portimonense		47.2%
24.9%		27.9%
-105
+324
-120
+340
1
1		-1.31449-1.33018-1.27550
Boavista
Chaves		31.5%
39.7%		28.7%
+175
+186
+175
+180
1
2		-1.08506-1.07713-0.92334
Rio Ave
Famalicao		28.0%
44.4%		27.6%
+293
+118
+295
+110
1
2		-0.81146-0.79257-0.81198
FC Vizela
Gil Vicente FC		26.3%
46.0%		27.6%
+297
+105
+265
+105
1
0		-1.40072-1.34508-1.33401
Porto
Arouca		61.7%
15.8%		22.5%
-228
+740
-245
+675
2
3		-2.15477-2.09622-1.84700
Benfica
Vitoria		61.8%
16.6%		21.6%
-150
+445
-175
+460
2
2		-1.43612-1.49593-1.53271
Braga
Sporting CP		14.9%
64.7%		20.4%
+580
-205
+550
-220
0
5		-0.42659-0.42318-0.43521
Casa Pia AC
Rio Ave		20.2%
54.3%		25.5%
+265
+132
+290
+120
0
1		-0.85418-0.83718-0.61079
Estoril
Boavista		25.6%
47.0%		27.3%
+185
+157
+180
+155
1
2		-0.97998-0.98278-0.75424
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks30-0-3 (0.500)0-1.37260 
Sportsbooks30-0-3 (0.500)0-1.36598 
DRatings30-0-3 (0.500)0-1.38811
-0.01551
-0.02214

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).