Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 8, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Gil Vicente FC
Estrela 		46.2%
25.4%		28.3%
-122
+385
-125
+370
1.30
0.89		2.19
o2¼-108
u2¼-112

Porto
Benfica 		23.7%
51.5%		24.8%
+280
+120
+260
+115
1.01
1.62		2.63
o2¼-103
u2¼-115

Vitoria
Santa Clara 		34.8%
36.4%		28.8%
+216
+160
+195
+165
1.10
1.14		2.24
o2-120
u2+101

Games for Mar 7, 2026
Games for Mar 9, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Chaves
Moreirense		16.6%
60.6%		22.8%
+374
-110
+380
-125
0
1		-0.67262-0.63618-0.50025
Famalicao
SC Farense		29.7%
42.3%		27.9%
+161
+200
+160
+190
1
1		-1.17416-1.18215-1.27561
Portimonense
Estrela		26.4%
45.1%		28.5%
+297
+100
+295
-105
0
3		-0.73085-0.71808-0.79587
Boavista
Casa Pia AC		27.1%
45.5%		27.4%
+292
+110
+275
+105
0
0		-1.26549-1.27122-1.29448
Moreirense
Braga		9.7%
73.6%		16.7%
+585
-204
+610
-225
0
1		-0.43507-0.41703-0.30697
Gil Vicente FC
Benfica		4.0%
86.0%		9.9%
+1560
-620
+1600
-725
0
3		-0.18455-0.17678-0.15069
Estrela
Estoril		24.5%
48.3%		27.2%
+291
-105
+290
-105
0
1		-0.70725-0.71812-0.72703
SC Farense
Chaves		30.7%
39.8%		29.4%
+221
+139
+205
+135
1
1		-1.23701-1.25956-1.22441
Vitoria
FC Vizela		38.4%
32.5%		29.1%
-110
+331
-110
+300
1
0		-0.67382-0.69693-0.95779
Rio Ave
Porto		6.1%
80.2%		13.8%
+1375
-433
+1350
-500
0
0		-1.91828-1.95878-1.98319
Arouca
Portimonense		33.6%
35.0%		31.4%
+106
+285
+100
+275
2
1		-0.74541-0.74036-1.09181
Chaves
Braga		5.8%
81.9%		12.3%
+792
-294
+850
-330
1
1		-1.78094-1.77278-2.09289
Estoril
Rio Ave		20.8%
52.9%		26.3%
+246
+123
+235
+125
1
1		-1.25485-1.22806-1.33484
Casa Pia AC
Sporting CP		4.7%
84.2%		11.2%
+1908
-621
+1600
-630
0
8		-0.18478-0.19773-0.17218
Benfica
Estrela		77.7%
7.7%		14.6%
-376
+995
-415
+1050
4
1		-0.27502-0.26493-0.25193
FC Vizela
Arouca		24.3%
48.5%		27.2%
+350
-116
+340
-120
0
5		-0.64386-0.65541-0.72427
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks30-0-3 (0.500)0-1.37260 
Sportsbooks30-0-3 (0.500)0-1.36598 
DRatings30-0-3 (0.500)0-1.38811
-0.01551
-0.02214

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).