Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 8, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Gil Vicente FC
Estrela 		46.2%
25.4%		28.3%
-122
+385
-125
+370
1.30
0.89		2.19
o2¼-108
u2¼-112

Porto
Benfica 		23.7%
51.5%		24.8%
+270
+125
+260
+115
1.01
1.62		2.63
o2¼-102
u2¼-115

Vitoria
Santa Clara 		34.8%
36.4%		28.8%
+216
+160
+195
+165
1.10
1.14		2.24
o2-112
u2-107

Games for Mar 7, 2026
Games for Mar 9, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Vitoria
Gil Vicente FC		38.9%
31.9%		29.2%
+128
+252
+120
+240
0
1		-1.27683-1.27418-1.14178
Porto
SC Farense		70.2%
10.9%		18.9%
-274
+823
-335
+925
3
1		-0.33694-0.30953-0.35376
Famalicao
Moreirense		24.1%
50.4%		25.5%
+220
+150
+220
+140
0
1		-0.94099-0.92591-0.68472
Portimonense
Boavista		24.8%
47.5%		27.7%
+320
-102
+295
+100
4
1		-1.46343-1.42412-1.39477
Estrela
Vitoria		13.1%
66.7%		20.2%
+510
-169
+510
-185
0
3		-0.50614-0.48203-0.40468
Rio Ave
Chaves		36.6%
33.1%		30.3%
+151
+206
+135
+215
0
0		-1.20234-1.22809-1.19409
Gil Vicente FC
Portimonense		28.4%
41.8%		29.8%
+189
+160
+180
+155
2
0		-1.09172-1.08063-1.25723
Moreirense
Porto		6.0%
80.8%		13.2%
+800
-269
+685
-275
0
5		-0.33941-0.36010-0.21322
SC Farense
Casa Pia AC		23.3%
49.9%		26.8%
+251
+125
+245
+120
3
1		-1.29197-1.28913-1.45848
Arouca
Estoril		29.9%
40.4%		29.7%
+182
+150
+185
+145
2
1		-1.07318-1.09506-1.20781
Boavista
Benfica		3.7%
87.3%		9.1%
+1814
-825
+1750
-850
0
2		-0.15907-0.16386-0.13628
Sporting CP
FC Vizela		70.8%
11.0%		18.2%
-308
+956
-350
+935
5
2		-0.30530-0.30445-0.34494
Braga
Famalicao		56.1%
20.7%		23.2%
-107
+301
-120
+320
2
1		-0.69231-0.65857-0.57723
Arouca
Vitoria		13.3%
65.6%		21.1%
+296
+101
+360
-120
1
2		-0.72188-0.65356-0.42106
Braga
Porto		16.9%
61.3%		21.8%
+329
-121
+330
-130
0
2		-0.63192-0.62023-0.48972
Rio Ave
Benfica		3.9%
86.2%		10.0%
+1283
-480
+1500
-625
1
4		-0.21159-0.19679-0.14891
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks30-0-3 (0.500)0-1.37260 
Sportsbooks30-0-3 (0.500)0-1.36598 
DRatings30-0-3 (0.500)0-1.38811
-0.01551
-0.02214

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).