Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 8, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Gil Vicente FC
Estrela 		46.2%
25.4%		28.3%
-118
+370
-125
+370
1.30
0.89		2.19
o2¼-108
u2¼-112

Porto
Benfica 		23.7%
51.5%		24.8%
+290
+106
+260
+115
1.01
1.62		2.63
o2-140
u2¼-122

Vitoria
Santa Clara 		34.8%
36.4%		28.8%
+216
+160
+195
+165
1.10
1.14		2.24
o2-112
u2-107

Games for Mar 7, 2026
Games for Mar 9, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Boavista
FC Vizela		23.6%
50.2%		26.1%
+320
+101
+285
+105
4
1		-1.46946-1.39740-1.44299
Estrela
Gil Vicente FC		22.4%
51.5%		26.0%
+274
+112
+260
+110
1
1		-1.25642-1.27072-1.34565
Moreirense
Estoril		26.9%
45.0%		28.1%
+221
+135
+195
+140
3
1		-1.19696-1.13038-1.31174
Sporting CP
Chaves		76.0%
8.3%		15.7%
-358
+1000
-425
+1050
3
0		-0.27839-0.26042-0.27421
Famalicao
Casa Pia AC		24.6%
49.8%		25.6%
+180
+184
+180
+175
2
0		-1.06097-1.08232-1.40096
SC Farense
Portimonense		26.0%
44.8%		29.2%
+176
+164
+165
+165
0
1		-1.00706-1.02223-0.80372
Casa Pia AC
Moreirense		25.4%
47.5%		27.0%
+444
-122
+500
-145
4
1		-1.71674-1.83898-1.37022
Chaves
Famalicao		20.0%
56.3%		23.6%
+477
-147
+445
-150
2
2		-1.35627-1.37070-1.44181
Portimonense
Rio Ave		23.9%
47.5%		28.5%
+415
-139
+375
-130
0
2		-0.57622-0.61906-0.74370
Vitoria
Braga		14.9%
64.4%		20.7%
+462
-158
+410
-160
1
1		-1.47042-1.47421-1.57644
Benfica
Arouca		77.0%
7.9%		15.2%
-215
+685
-240
+675
3
0		-0.40393-0.39707-0.26173
Gil Vicente FC
SC Farense		28.1%
42.8%		29.0%
+231
+125
+230
+125
0
1		-0.84269-0.86022-0.84751
FC Vizela
Estrela		30.1%
41.3%		28.6%
+154
+192
+155
+185
1
1		-1.23021-1.22816-1.25106
Porto
Boavista		70.7%
11.1%		18.2%
-230
+650
-250
+660
1
1		-1.60152-1.63799-1.70578
Estoril
Sporting CP		5.1%
82.9%		12.0%
+1111
-390
+1000
-440
1
5		-0.25246-0.25727-0.18698
Sporting CP
Portimonense		72.9%
9.4%		17.7%
-347
+950
-350
+850
2
1		-0.28427-0.29982-0.31571
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks30-0-3 (0.500)0-1.37260 
Sportsbooks30-0-3 (0.500)0-1.36598 
DRatings30-0-3 (0.500)0-1.38811
-0.01551
-0.02214

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).