Derby County at Swansea City

Updated

Derby County

16.2%21.8%61.9%
WinDrawSwansea City Win
0.84Projected Goals 1.89
2Final Score 1

Swansea City

Last 5 Games

Derby County
Money Line
L 3-2 vs Watford+145
W 2-1 at Blackburn+320
W 1-2 vs Hull City+115
W 3-1 at Sheffield United+380
W 0-1 vs Queens Park Rangers+180
Swansea City
Money Line
L 0-3 at Bristol City+300
L 4-1 vs Ipswich Town+235
L 1-2 at Preston North End+245
T 1-1 at Charlton Athletic+275
W 1-2 vs Norwich City+130

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:5.4%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:4.7%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Derby County+250-+250+225+225+225+250+250.6
Swansea City+107-+118+123+123+123+123+140.6
Draw+215-+195+210+210+210+210+234.4
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Derby County+265---+205+275+275+250.6
Swansea City+115---+110+115+115+140.6
Draw+220---+205+215+215+234.4

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Swansea City: 40.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Derby County: 0.0%
Swansea City: 50.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Derby County: 10.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Derby County: 0.0%
Swansea City: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Derby County ML moved from +255 to +245
Swansea City ML moved from +124 to +118

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 20.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Swansea City: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Derby County: 0.0%
Swansea City: 50.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Derby County: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Derby County: 70.0%
Swansea City: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Derby County ML moved from +220 to +205
Swansea City ML moved from +125 to +115

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:4.2%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo2-128-o2-102o2-103o2-103o2-103o2-102o2+106
Underu2+108-u2-118u2-117u2-117u2-117u2-117u2-106
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o2+106
Under-----u2-106

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 20.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Over: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes48.3%
 
No51.7%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 06.52%
Exactly 224.31%
Exactly 415.09%
Exactly 63.75%
Exactly 80.50%
 
Exactly 117.81%
Exactly 322.12%
Exactly 58.24%
Exactly 71.46%
Exactly 90.15%
Exact Goals Scored - Derby County
Exactly 043.00%
Exactly 136.29%
Exactly 215.31%
Exactly 34.31%
Exactly 40.91%
Exactly 50.15%
Exact Goals Scored - Swansea City
Exactly 015.17%
Exactly 128.61%
Exactly 226.98%
Exactly 316.96%
Exactly 47.99%
Exactly 53.01%
Exactly 60.95%
Exactly 70.26%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 028.26%
Exactly 222.57%
Exactly 43.00%
Exactly 60.16%
 
Exactly 135.71%
Exactly 39.51%
Exactly 50.76%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Derby County
Exactly 067.66%
Exactly 126.43%
Exactly 25.16%
Exactly 30.67%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Swansea City
Exactly 041.77%
Exactly 136.47%
Exactly 215.92%
Exactly 34.63%
Exactly 41.01%
Exactly 50.18%

Alternate Props

Spread

Derby County
Wins by 2+ goals4.99%
Wins by 3+ goals1.16%
Wins by 4+ goals0.21%
Swansea City
Wins by 2+ goals36.79%
Wins by 3+ goals17.67%
Wins by 4+ goals6.98%
Wins by 5+ goals2.29%
Wins by 6+ goals0.61%
Wins by 7+ goals0.11%

Exact Winning Margin

Derby County
Swansea City
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Derby County
Wins by 1 goal11.22%
Wins by 2 goals3.83%
Wins by 3 goals0.95%
Wins by 4 goals0.18%
Swansea City
Wins by 1 goal25.06%
Wins by 2 goals19.12%
Wins by 3 goals10.70%
Wins by 4 goals4.69%
Wins by 5 goals1.68%
Wins by 6 goals0.50%
Wins by 7 goals0.11%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.593.48%6.52%
1.575.66%24.34%
2.551.36%48.64%
3.529.24%70.76%
4.514.15%85.85%
5.55.91%94.09%
6.52.17%97.83%

Total Goals Derby County Over/Under

OverUnder
0.557.00%43.00%
1.520.71%79.29%
2.55.39%94.61%
3.51.09%98.91%

Total Goals Swansea City Over/Under

OverUnder
0.584.83%15.17%
1.556.22%43.78%
2.529.24%70.76%
3.512.29%87.71%
4.54.29%95.71%
5.51.28%98.72%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.571.74%28.26%
1.536.03%63.97%
2.513.46%86.54%
3.53.96%96.04%

Score Props

Correct Score

Derby County
Swansea City
Score012345
0
6.52%
12.30%
11.60%
7.29%
3.44%
1.30%
1
5.51%
10.38%
9.79%
6.15%
2.90%
1.09%
2
2.32%
4.38%
4.13%
2.60%
1.22%
0.46%
3
0.65%
1.23%
1.16%
0.73%
0.34%
0.13%
4
0.14%
0.26%
0.25%
0.15%
0.07%
0.03%
Derby County
1-05.51%
2-02.32%
2-14.38%
3-00.65%
3-11.23%
3-21.16%
4-00.14%
4-10.26%
4-20.25%
4-30.15%
Draw
0-06.52%
1-110.38%
2-24.13%
3-30.73%
Swansea City
0-112.30%
0-211.60%
1-29.79%
0-37.29%
1-36.15%
2-32.60%
0-43.44%
1-42.90%
2-41.22%
3-40.34%
0-51.30%
1-51.09%
2-50.46%
3-50.13%

Correct Score - First Half

Derby County
Swansea City
Score012345
0
28.26%
24.67%
10.77%
3.13%
0.68%
0.12%
1
11.04%
9.64%
4.21%
1.22%
0.27%
0.05%
2
2.16%
1.88%
0.82%
0.24%
0.05%
0.01%
3
0.28%
0.25%
0.11%
0.03%
0.01%
0.00%
Derby County
1-011.04%
2-02.16%
2-11.88%
3-00.28%
3-10.25%
3-20.11%
Draw
0-028.26%
1-19.64%
2-20.82%
Swansea City
0-124.67%
0-210.77%
1-24.21%
0-33.13%
1-31.22%
2-30.24%
0-40.68%
1-40.27%
0-50.12%
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