Stoke City at Derby County

Updated

Stoke City

31.5%28.8%39.7%
Stoke City WinDrawDerby County Win
1.03Projected Goals 1.19
0Final Score 2

Derby County

Last 5 Games

Stoke City
Money Line
W 0-2 vs Sheffield Wednesday-260
L 1-3 at Preston North End+180
W 1-3 vs Watford+180
T 3-3 vs Ipswich Town+425
L 0-2 at Swansea City+315
Derby County
Money Line
L 2-3 at Coventry City+440
W 0-1 vs Birmingham City+180
W 1-0 at Portsmouth+245
L 0-1 at Millwall+265
W 1-2 vs Sheffield Wednesday-410

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:3.0%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:4.8%
 Open Line3etBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Stoke City+285-+360+400+400+400+400+415.4
Derby County-114--149-135-135-135-135-125.9
Draw+240-+270+290+290+290+290+302.0
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Stoke City+305----+375+375+415.4
Derby County-110-----140-140-125.9
Draw+260----+290+290+302.0

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Stoke City: 40.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Stoke City: 50.0%
Derby County: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Stoke City: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Stoke City: 0.0%
Derby County: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Stoke City ML moved from +380 to +370
Derby County ML moved from -135 to -141

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Stoke City: 40.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Stoke City: 50.0%
Derby County: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Stoke City: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Stoke City: 0.0%
Derby County: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Stoke City ML
Derby County ML moved from -120 to -140

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:3.1%
 Open Line3etBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo2½+100-o2½-118o2¾+112o2¾+112o2¾+112o2½-118o2¾+121
Underu2½-120-u2½-102u2¾-132u2¾-132u2¾-132u2¾-132u2¾-121
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o2¾+121
Under-----u2¾-121

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 10.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Over: 10.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

The Over moved from o2¼-135 to o2¾+109
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes44.8%
 
No55.2%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 010.85%
Exactly 226.76%
Exactly 411.00%
Exactly 61.81%
Exactly 80.16%
 
Exactly 124.09%
Exactly 319.81%
Exactly 54.89%
Exactly 70.57%
Exact Goals Scored - Stoke City
Exactly 035.74%
Exactly 136.77%
Exactly 218.92%
Exactly 36.49%
Exactly 41.67%
Exactly 50.34%
Exact Goals Scored - Derby County
Exactly 030.35%
Exactly 136.19%
Exactly 221.58%
Exactly 38.58%
Exactly 42.56%
Exactly 50.61%
Exactly 60.12%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 035.76%
Exactly 218.91%
Exactly 41.67%
 
Exactly 136.77%
Exactly 36.48%
Exactly 50.34%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Stoke City
Exactly 062.10%
Exactly 129.58%
Exactly 27.05%
Exactly 31.12%
Exactly 40.13%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Derby County
Exactly 057.57%
Exactly 131.79%
Exactly 28.77%
Exactly 31.61%
Exactly 40.22%

Alternate Props

Spread

Stoke City
Wins by 2+ goals11.86%
Wins by 3+ goals3.38%
Wins by 4+ goals0.73%
Wins by 5+ goals0.10%
Derby County
Wins by 2+ goals16.99%
Wins by 3+ goals5.60%
Wins by 4+ goals1.47%
Wins by 5+ goals0.31%

Exact Winning Margin

Stoke City
Derby County
5
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
Stoke City
Wins by 1 goal19.56%
Wins by 2 goals8.48%
Wins by 3 goals2.65%
Wins by 4 goals0.63%
Wins by 5 goals0.10%
Derby County
Wins by 1 goal22.67%
Wins by 2 goals11.39%
Wins by 3 goals4.13%
Wins by 4 goals1.16%
Wins by 5 goals0.26%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.589.15%10.85%
1.565.06%34.94%
2.538.30%61.70%
3.518.49%81.51%
4.57.48%92.52%
5.52.59%97.41%

Total Goals Stoke City Over/Under

OverUnder
0.564.26%35.74%
1.527.49%72.51%
2.58.57%91.43%
3.52.08%97.92%

Total Goals Derby County Over/Under

OverUnder
0.569.65%30.35%
1.533.46%66.54%
2.511.89%88.11%
3.53.31%96.69%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.564.24%35.76%
1.527.47%72.53%
2.58.56%91.44%
3.52.08%97.92%

Score Props

Correct Score

Stoke City
Derby County
Score012345
0
10.85%
12.93%
7.71%
3.07%
0.91%
0.22%
1
11.16%
13.31%
7.93%
3.15%
0.94%
0.22%
2
5.74%
6.85%
4.08%
1.62%
0.48%
0.12%
3
1.97%
2.35%
1.40%
0.56%
0.17%
0.04%
4
0.51%
0.60%
0.36%
0.14%
0.04%
0.01%
5
0.10%
0.12%
0.07%
0.03%
0.01%
0.00%
Stoke City
1-011.16%
2-05.74%
2-16.85%
3-01.97%
3-12.35%
3-21.40%
4-00.51%
4-10.60%
4-20.36%
4-30.14%
5-00.10%
5-10.12%
Draw
0-010.85%
1-113.31%
2-24.08%
3-30.56%
Derby County
0-112.93%
0-27.71%
1-27.93%
0-33.07%
1-33.15%
2-31.62%
0-40.91%
1-40.94%
2-40.48%
3-40.17%
0-50.22%
1-50.22%
2-50.12%

Correct Score - First Half

Stoke City
Derby County
Score01234
0
35.76%
19.74%
5.45%
1.00%
0.14%
1
17.03%
9.40%
2.60%
0.48%
0.07%
2
4.06%
2.24%
0.62%
0.11%
0.02%
3
0.64%
0.36%
0.10%
0.02%
0.00%
Stoke City
1-017.03%
2-04.06%
2-12.24%
3-00.64%
3-10.36%
Draw
0-035.76%
1-19.40%
2-20.62%
Derby County
0-119.74%
0-25.45%
1-22.60%
0-31.00%
1-30.48%
2-30.11%
0-40.14%
Birmingham City at Ipswich Town
Sheffield Utd at Bristol City