Stoke City at Derby County

Updated

Stoke City

35.1%29.4%35.5%
Stoke City WinDrawDerby County Win
1.07Projected Goals 1.09
1Final Score 2

Derby County

Last 5 Games

Stoke City
Money Line
T 1-1 vs Barnsley-155
W 1-2 vs Huddersfield-105
L 0-3 at Fulham+380
W 0-1 vs Nottingham Forest-125
W 3-1 at Swansea City+150
Derby County
Money Line
T 0-0 at West Bromwich Albion+635
L 0-2 at Birmingham City+350
T 1-1 vs Nottingham Forest+135
T 0-0 vs Middlesbrough+190
W 1-0 at Hull City+295

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
2.4%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
5.1%
 Open LineBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Stoke City+135+117+119+122+120+119+122+128.4
Derby County+209+265+290+284+251+290+290+294.1
Draw+222+210+198+215+211+198+215+224.1
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Stoke City+150---+110+115+115+128.4
Derby County+200---+225+280+280+294.1
Draw+210---+190+210+210+224.1

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Stoke City: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 20.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Stoke City: 0.0%
Derby County: 40.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Stoke City: 0.0%
Derby County: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Stoke City ML moved from +120 to +112
Derby County ML moved from +275 to +265

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Stoke City: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 20.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Stoke City: 0.0%
Derby County: 40.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Stoke City: 0.0%
Derby County: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Stoke City ML moved from +130 to +115
No Steam Moves On Derby County ML

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
2.9%
 Open LineBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo2-125o2-110o2-109o2-105-o2-109o2-105o2+100
Underu2+105u2-110u2-111u2-107-u2-111u2-107u2+100
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o2+100
Under-----u2+100

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 20.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 20.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
The Under moved from u2½-136 to u2+118

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes43.7%
 
No56.3%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 011.50%
Exactly 226.90%
Exactly 410.49%
Exactly 61.64%
Exactly 80.14%
 
Exactly 124.87%
Exactly 319.39%
Exactly 54.54%
Exactly 70.51%
Exact Goals Scored - Stoke City
Exactly 034.14%
Exactly 136.69%
Exactly 219.71%
Exactly 37.06%
Exactly 41.90%
Exactly 50.41%
Exact Goals Scored - Derby County
Exactly 033.67%
Exactly 136.65%
Exactly 219.95%
Exactly 37.24%
Exactly 41.97%
Exactly 50.43%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 036.73%
Exactly 218.42%
Exactly 41.54%
 
Exactly 136.79%
Exactly 36.15%
Exactly 50.31%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Stoke City
Exactly 060.80%
Exactly 130.25%
Exactly 27.53%
Exactly 31.25%
Exactly 40.16%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Derby County
Exactly 060.41%
Exactly 130.45%
Exactly 27.67%
Exactly 31.29%
Exactly 40.16%

Alternate Props

Spread

Stoke City
Wins by 2+ goals13.71%
Wins by 3+ goals4.08%
Wins by 4+ goals0.93%
Wins by 5+ goals0.14%
Derby County
Wins by 2+ goals14.14%
Wins by 3+ goals4.26%
Wins by 4+ goals0.98%
Wins by 5+ goals0.15%

Exact Winning Margin

Stoke City
Derby County
5
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
Stoke City
Wins by 1 goal21.13%
Wins by 2 goals9.63%
Wins by 3 goals3.15%
Wins by 4 goals0.79%
Wins by 5 goals0.14%
Derby County
Wins by 1 goal21.41%
Wins by 2 goals9.89%
Wins by 3 goals3.28%
Wins by 4 goals0.83%
Wins by 5 goals0.15%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.588.50%11.50%
1.563.64%36.36%
2.536.74%63.26%
3.517.35%82.65%
4.56.86%93.14%
5.52.32%97.68%

Total Goals Stoke City Over/Under

OverUnder
0.565.86%34.14%
1.529.17%70.83%
2.59.45%90.55%
3.52.39%97.61%

Total Goals Derby County Over/Under

OverUnder
0.566.33%33.67%
1.529.68%70.32%
2.59.73%90.27%
3.52.49%97.51%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.563.27%36.73%
1.526.48%73.52%
2.58.06%91.94%
3.51.91%98.09%

Score Props

Correct Score

Stoke City
Derby County
Score012345
0
11.50%
12.51%
6.81%
2.47%
0.67%
0.15%
1
12.35%
13.45%
7.32%
2.66%
0.72%
0.16%
2
6.64%
7.23%
3.93%
1.43%
0.39%
0.08%
3
2.38%
2.59%
1.41%
0.51%
0.14%
0.03%
4
0.64%
0.70%
0.38%
0.14%
0.04%
0.01%
5
0.14%
0.15%
0.08%
0.03%
0.01%
0.00%
Stoke City
1-012.35%
2-06.64%
2-17.23%
3-02.38%
3-12.59%
3-21.41%
4-00.64%
4-10.70%
4-20.38%
4-30.14%
5-00.14%
5-10.15%
Draw
0-011.50%
1-113.45%
2-23.93%
3-30.51%
Derby County
0-112.51%
0-26.81%
1-27.32%
0-32.47%
1-32.66%
2-31.43%
0-40.67%
1-40.72%
2-40.39%
3-40.14%
0-50.15%
1-50.16%

Correct Score - First Half

Stoke City
Derby County
Score0123
0
36.73%
18.51%
4.67%
0.78%
1
18.27%
9.21%
2.32%
0.39%
2
4.55%
2.29%
0.58%
0.10%
3
0.75%
0.38%
0.10%
0.02%
Stoke City
1-018.27%
2-04.55%
2-12.29%
3-00.75%
3-10.38%
Draw
0-036.73%
1-19.21%
2-20.58%
Derby County
0-118.51%
0-24.67%
1-22.32%
0-30.78%
1-30.39%