German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 10, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
VfB Stuttgart
Augsburg 		31.5%
43.3%		25.2%
-108
+266

1.26
1.51		2.77
o3¼-112
u3½-127

Games for May 9, 2024
Games for May 11, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Mainz 05
FC Heidenheim 		42.5%
31.7%		25.8%
+146
+201
+145
+188
2.66
o2¾-101
u2¾-115
o2½-125
u2½+115
1st H
23:00		0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
FC Koln
Bayern Munich		4.4%
87.1%		8.6%
+1100
-414
+1050
-470
0
2		-0.23822-0.24044-0.13848
Wolfsburg
RB Leipzig		11.2%
72.5%		16.2%
+971
-281
+760
-305
0
3		-0.29351-0.32889-0.32125
Union Berlin
Augsburg		35.4%
37.7%		26.9%
+270
+112
+255
+110
0
2		-0.77714-0.78858-0.97647
Borussia Monchengladbach
Wolfsburg		36.3%
37.9%		25.8%
+279
-103
+265
-105
3
1		-1.35965-1.33964-1.01399
Augsburg
Hoffenheim		17.2%
63.4%		19.4%
+192
+130
+195
+120
1
3		-0.85386-0.83409-0.45567
VfB Stuttgart
Dortmund		8.5%
78.5%		13.0%
+250
+104
+245
+100
1
0		-1.26227-1.27447-2.46605
Bayern Munich
FC Heidenheim		83.6%
5.7%		10.7%
-264
+610
-280
+620
2
3		-1.98967-2.02110-2.86857
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Union Berlin		31.9%
42.1%		25.9%
-147
+460
-155
+460
1
0		-0.54547-0.52770-1.14225
Darmstadt 98
Mainz 05		17.5%
62.8%		19.7%
+675
-236
+670
-250
0
4		-0.38421-0.38161-0.46533
RB Leipzig
Freiburg		38.6%
35.0%		26.4%
-171
+475
-180
+445
4
1		-0.48204-0.48464-0.95280
VfL Bochum
FC Koln		17.6%
62.6%		19.7%
+218
+130
+205
+128
1
2		-0.85958-0.87120-0.46781
Werder Bremen
Eintracht Frankfurt		14.8%
67.5%		17.7%
+375
-123
+330
-125
1
1		-1.38890-1.38502-1.72952
Darmstadt 98
VfL Bochum		27.0%
49.3%		23.7%
+545
-202
+580
-210
2
2		-1.61687-1.56710-1.44041
FC Heidenheim
VfB Stuttgart		19.6%
59.0%		21.4%
+885
-335
+875
-370
3
3		-1.89699-1.89466-1.54169
FC Koln
Augsburg		32.3%
42.6%		25.1%
+427
-146
+422
-145
1
1		-1.47430-1.40964-1.38282
Dortmund
Bayern Munich		10.4%
75.2%		14.4%
+645
-268
+580
-280
2
0		-2.03042-1.96233-2.26780
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-1.16845 
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-1.18856 
DRatings21-1-0 (0.500)0-1.40316
-0.23471
-0.21460

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/28/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayer 04 Leverkusen (25-0-6, 81 pts)26.60.66.886.7100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Bayern Munich (22-6-3, 69 pts)23.96.53.675.30.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3VfB Stuttgart (20-7-4, 64 pts)20.88.44.867.30.0%97.8%2.2%0.0%0.0%
4RB Leipzig (19-7-5, 62 pts)20.57.75.867.30.0%97.2%2.8%0.0%0.0%
5Dortmund (16-6-9, 57 pts)17.46.89.961.90.0%5.0%95.0%0.0%0.0%
6Eintracht Frankfurt (11-8-12, 45 pts)11.89.412.848.30.0%0.0%86.7%0.0%0.0%
7Freiburg (11-13-7, 40 pts)12.413.87.845.00.0%0.0%11.3%0.0%0.0%
8Augsburg (10-12-9, 39 pts)10.813.39.942.30.0%0.0%0.8%0.0%0.0%
9Hoffenheim (11-14-6, 39 pts)11.815.56.742.20.0%0.0%0.9%0.0%0.0%
10FC Heidenheim (9-12-10, 37 pts)9.713.510.839.90.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
11Werder Bremen (10-14-7, 37 pts)10.815.37.840.30.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%
12Wolfsburg (9-15-7, 34 pts)9.816.47.837.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.8%0.0%
13Borussia Monchengladbach (7-13-11, 32 pts)8.313.911.936.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.0%0.0%
14Union Berlin (8-17-6, 30 pts)9.218.06.834.30.0%0.0%0.0%18.8%1.0%
15VfL Bochum (6-13-12, 30 pts)6.814.412.833.30.0%0.0%0.0%38.5%1.3%
16Mainz 05 (5-13-13, 28 pts)6.314.013.832.60.0%0.0%0.0%37.1%2.4%
17FC Koln (4-16-11, 23 pts)5.017.211.826.80.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%95.3%
18Darmstadt 98 (3-20-8, 17 pts)3.821.38.920.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.