MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 16, 2025

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Chicago White Sox (14-29)
Chicago Cubs (25-19)
Shane Smith
Cade Horton
25.0%
75.0%
+195
-218



3.35
5.96
9.31


Cleveland Guardians (25-18)
Cincinnati Reds (20-24)
Tanner Bibee
Brady Singer
53.5%
46.5%
-113
+103



4.24
3.87
8.11
o9-105
u9-115

Pittsburgh Pirates (15-29)
Philadelphia Phillies (25-18)
Andrew Heaney
Ranger Suárez
34.9%
65.1%
+189
-210



3.20
4.77
7.97
o8½-105
u8½-115

Washington Nationals (18-26)
Baltimore Orioles (15-26)
MacKenzie Gore
Cade Povich
46.8%
53.2%
-105
-105



4.19
4.52
8.71
o9-112
u9-108

New York Mets (28-16)
New York Yankees (25-18)
Tylor Megill
Carlos Rodon
43.9%
56.1%
+127
-140



3.73
4.36
8.09
o8½-125
u8½+105

Detroit Tigers (29-15)
Toronto Blue Jays (21-21)
Jack Flaherty
Bowden Francis
55.5%
44.5%
-129
+117



4.34
3.76
8.10
o8½+100
u8½-120

Tampa Bay Rays (19-23)
Miami Marlins (16-26)
Taj Bradley
UNDECIDED UNDECIDED
53.9%
46.1%




4.08
3.66
7.74


Atlanta Braves (21-22)
Boston Red Sox (22-23)
Chris Sale
Garrett Crochet
46.0%
54.0%
+114
-126



3.46
3.89
7.35
o8-105
u8-115

St. Louis Cardinals (24-20)
Kansas City Royals (25-20)
Andre Pallante
Cole Ragans
41.2%
58.8%
+138
-152



3.97
4.88
8.85
o8-125
u8+105

Houston Astros (22-20)
Texas Rangers (23-21)
Lance McCullers
Nathan Eovaldi
42.5%
57.5%
+154
-170



3.21
4.00
7.21
o8½+100
u8½-120

Minnesota Twins (23-20)
Milwaukee Brewers (21-23)
Joe Ryan
Chad Patrick
56.3%
43.7%
-106
-104



3.85
3.19
7.04
o8+105
u8-125

Colorado Rockies (7-36)
Arizona Diamondbacks (23-21)
UNDECIDED UNDECIDED
Corbin Burnes
25.6%
74.4%




2.73
5.28
8.01


Seattle Mariners (23-19)
San Diego Padres (27-15)
UNDECIDED UNDECIDED
Stephen Kolek
46.1%
53.9%




4.09
4.50
8.59


Los Angeles Angels (17-25)
Los Angeles Dodgers (28-15)
UNDECIDED UNDECIDED
UNDECIDED UNDECIDED
31.1%
68.9%




3.34
5.28
8.62


Oakland Athletics (22-21)
San Francisco Giants (25-19)
UNDECIDED UNDECIDED
Logan Webb
30.4%
69.6%




2.66
4.66
7.32


Games for May 17, 2025

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Tampa Bay Rays (19-23)
Toronto Blue Jays (21-21)
41.0%
59.0%
+154
-162
+156
-165
+1½-113
-1½+130
+1½-135
-1½+130
7.19
o8-108
u8-105
o8-115
u8+100
2nd
TOP
2
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Chicago White Sox
Cincinnati Reds
34.5%
65.5%
+210
-230
+210
-230
+1½+107
-1½-118
+1½+105
-1½-120
1
7
-0.38037-0.38037-0.42274
Minnesota Twins
Baltimore Orioles
47.3%
52.7%
+119
-126
+121
-126
+1½-173
-1½+160
+1½-170
-1½+160
4
0
-0.79795-0.80294-0.74798
Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves
35.2%
64.8%
+180
-190
+180
-190
+1½-113
-1½+100
+1½-110
-1½+100
2
5
-0.43510-0.43510-0.43408
Oakland Athletics
Los Angeles Dodgers
28.8%
71.2%
+253
-275
+254
-270
+1½+130
-1½-138
+1½+125
-1½-135
3
9
-0.32664-0.32723-0.33944
Los Angeles Angels
San Diego Padres
34.5%
65.5%
+172
-176
+167
-180
+1½-116
-1½+107
+1½-125
-1½+110
1
5
-0.45523-0.45907-0.42332
Kansas City Royals
Houston Astros
45.7%
54.3%
+122
-117
+113
-120
+1½-183
-1½+168
+1½-180
-1½+170
3
4
-0.60728-0.62096-0.60980
Colorado Rockies
Texas Rangers
32.1%
67.9%
+200
-210
+205
-220
+1½-103
-1½-110
+1½-105
-1½-110
3
8
-0.40015-0.38995-0.38781
Miami Marlins
Chicago Cubs
31.8%
68.2%
+187
-202
+191
-203
+1½-118
-1½+107
+1½-115
-1½+105
3
1
-1.07148-1.08167-1.14652
Pittsburgh Pirates
New York Mets
32.1%
67.9%
+225
-244
+233
-260
+1½+110
-1½-120
+1½+110
-1½-120
4
0
-1.19551-1.22523-1.13772
Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves
38.6%
61.4%
+168
-178
+163
-170
+1½-128
-1½+115
+1½-130
-1½+115
5
4
-0.99916-0.97678-0.95171
Chicago White Sox
Cincinnati Reds
33.1%
66.9%
+176
-186
+180
-190
+1½-110
-1½+100
+1½-113
-1½+100
4
2
-1.02781-1.04185-1.10512
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
41.8%
58.2%
+144
-150
+145
-155
+1½-153
-1½+143
+1½-150
-1½+140
1
3
-0.52062-0.51371-0.54120
Boston Red Sox
Detroit Tigers
34.9%
65.1%
+210
-225
+210
-230
+1½-108
-1½-105
+1½-110
-1½-107
5
6
-0.38251-0.38037-0.42975
St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies
43.5%
56.5%
+107
-115
+111
-117
+1½-178
-1½+165
+1½-175
-1½+175
14
7
-0.74537-0.75971-0.83172
New York Yankees
Seattle Mariners
50.2%
49.8%
-110
+104
-108
+105
-1½+152
+1½-168
-1½+155
+1½-162
3
2
-0.66054-0.66240-0.68826
Minnesota Twins
Baltimore Orioles
49.7%
50.3%
+134
-125
+129
-138
+1½-160
-1½+165
+1½-160
-1½+145
8
6
-0.83292-0.84492-0.69991
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks1710-7 (0.588)0-0.67670 
Sportsbooks1710-7 (0.588)0-0.68083 
DRatings179-8 (0.529)0-0.68779
-0.01109
-0.00696

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.