MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 24, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Arizona Diamondbacks (12-13)
St. Louis Cardinals (10-14)
Jordan Montgomery
Kyle Gibson
51.7%
48.3%
-108
-101
-108
+105
-1½+155
+1½-165
-1½+150
+1½-155
4.60
4.42
9.02
o8-103
u8-110
o8+100
u8+100
All Bet Values Active
New York Mets (12-11)
San Francisco Giants (12-13)
Sean Manaea
Blake Snell
41.3%
58.7%
+114
-123
+117
-125
+1½-180
-1½+165
+1½-180
-1½+170
4.00
4.92
8.92
o7½-102
u7½-110
o7½+100
u8-110
Volatility Bet Value Active
Baltimore Orioles (15-8)
Los Angeles Angels (10-14)
Dean Kremer
Tyler Anderson
53.6%
46.4%
-124
+116
-123
+117
-1½+127
+1½-140
-1½+130
+1½-145
4.43
4.05
8.48
o9½+102
u9½-118
o9-110
u9+105
Boston Red Sox (13-11)
Cleveland Guardians (17-6)
Cooper Criswell
Carlos Carrasco
46.2%
53.8%
+125
-133
+126
-135
+1½-168
-1½+155
+1½-170
-1½+150
3.79
4.18
7.97
o7½-110
u8-118
o7½-110
u8-115
Philadelphia Phillies (15-9)
Cincinnati Reds (13-10)
Spencer Turnbull
Nick Lodolo
52.8%
47.2%
+103
-111
+102
-108


5.24
4.94
10.18
o8½-103
u8½-113
o8½-105
u8½+100
Milwaukee Brewers (14-8)
Pittsburgh Pirates (13-11)
Bryse Wilson
Josh Fleming
53.9%
46.1%
+104
-112
+105
-114
+1½-197
-1½+173
+1½-200
-1½+181
4.48
4.07
8.55
o8½-123
u8½+107
o9+100
u8½+105
Los Angeles Dodgers (14-11)
Washington Nationals (10-12)
Landon Knack
Jake Irvin
62.6%
37.4%
-169
+160
-175
+165
-1½-113
+1½-103
-1½-115
+1½+100
5.28
3.96
9.24
o9½-103
u9½-113
o9½-105
u9½-110
Detroit Tigers (14-10)
Tampa Bay Rays (12-13)
Jack Flaherty
Shawn Armstrong
48.2%
51.8%
+106
-110
+107
-114
+1½-210
-1½+185
+1½-210
-1½+184
3.96
4.15
8.11
o8-103
u8-110
o8-110
u8-110
Oakland Athletics (9-15)
New York Yankees (16-8)
Joe Boyle
Clarke Schmidt
33.4%
66.6%
+198
-205
+195
-205
+1½-108
-1½-108
+1½-110
-1½-105
3.30
5.02
8.32
o8½+100
u8½-113
o8½+100
u8½-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Miami Marlins (6-19)
Atlanta Braves (16-6)
Sixto Sánchez
Reynaldo López
31.8%
68.2%
+200
-213
+205
-220
+1½+107
-1½-118
+1½+110
-1½-123
3.71
5.58
9.29
o9-103
u9-113
o9-105
u9-110
Toronto Blue Jays (13-11)
Kansas City Royals (14-10)
Yariel Rodríguez
Alec Marsh
55.2%
44.8%
-116
+108
-115
+106
-1½+137
+1½-153
-1½+140
+1½-154
4.65
4.10
8.75
o9-103
u9-113
o9-105
u9-105
Chicago White Sox (3-20)
Minnesota Twins (9-13)
Garrett Crochet
Joe Ryan
32.1%
67.9%
+180
-186
+177
-190
+1½-133
-1½+117
+1½-130
-1½+125
3.09
4.93
8.02
o6½-115
u6½+102
o6½-120
u7-120
Volatility Bet Value Active
Houston Astros (7-17)
Chicago Cubs (14-9)
Spencer Arrighetti
Jameson Taillon
42.9%
57.1%
-101
-108
+100
-109
+1½-220
-1½+190
+1½-210
-1½+190
4.43
5.17
9.60
o8+102
u8-110
o8-105
u8-115
Seattle Mariners (12-11)
Texas Rangers (12-12)
Bryce Miller
Jon Gray
48.9%
51.1%
+107
-114
+107
-113
+1½-188
-1½+170
+1½-180
-1½+170
4.38
4.49
8.87
o9+100
u9-110
o9-105
u9-110
San Diego Padres (13-13)
Colorado Rockies (6-18)
Matt Waldron
Undecided Undecided
57.6%
42.4%




5.64
4.85
10.49


Games for Apr 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Baltimore Orioles
Los Angeles Angels
51.0%
49.0%
-103
-104
-103
-104

+1½-210
-1½+184
4
2
-0.69551-0.69551-0.67391
San Diego Padres
Colorado Rockies
64.7%
35.3%
-168
+158
-170
+159
-1½-118
+1½+105
-1½-115
+1½+104
3
1
-0.48138-0.47823-0.43473
Arizona Diamondbacks
St. Louis Cardinals
46.3%
53.7%
+100
-108
+101
-108


3
5
-0.67446-0.67201-0.62107
Chicago White Sox
Minnesota Twins
34.3%
65.7%
+185
-200
+181
-200
+1½-110
-1½-103
+1½-115
-1½-103
0
7
-0.42286-0.42776-0.42035
Toronto Blue Jays
Kansas City Royals
53.2%
46.8%
-118
+109
-115
+115
-1½+140
+1½-153
-1½+136
+1½-155
5
3
-0.63337-0.62571-0.63074
Miami Marlins
Atlanta Braves
34.7%
65.3%
+186
-200
+190
-198
+1½-103
-1½-110
+1½-103
-1½-110
0
3
-0.42166-0.41805-0.42641
Detroit Tigers
Tampa Bay Rays
55.4%
44.6%
-104
-105
-101
-103

-1½+163
+1½-175
7
1
-0.69549-0.69802-0.59135
Philadelphia Phillies
Cincinnati Reds
48.3%
51.7%
-107
+100
-105
-103
-1½+152
+1½-165
-1½+150
+1½-165
7
0
-0.67666-0.68844-0.72745
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
49.1%
50.9%
+133
-142
+135
-138
+1½-168
-1½+152
+1½-165
-1½+155
2
4
-0.54894-0.55036-0.67517
Oakland Athletics
New York Yankees
34.1%
65.9%
+215
-232
+215
-239
+1½+105
-1½-118
+1½+105
-1½-120
2
0
-1.16353-1.16964-1.07532
Seattle Mariners
Colorado Rockies
56.6%
43.4%
-113
+105
-113
+107
-1½+129
+1½-138
-1½+131
+1½-145
10
2
-0.65204-0.64741-0.56920
Texas Rangers
Atlanta Braves
38.7%
61.3%
+144
-153
+148
-156
+1½-138
-1½+122
+1½-135
-1½+122
6
4
-0.90646-0.92078-0.94822
Toronto Blue Jays
San Diego Padres
50.6%
49.4%
+101
-107
+106
-107
+1½-207
-1½+180
+1½-200
-1½+190
3
6
-0.67421-0.66223-0.70579
New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers
35.7%
64.3%
+220
-240
+223
-250
+1½+120
-1½-128
+1½+112
-1½-130
0
10
-0.36652-0.36008-0.44223
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants
49.6%
50.4%
+121
-130
+125
-128
+1½-143
-1½+156
+1½-170
-1½+159
5
3
-0.81054-0.81676-0.70076
Seattle Mariners
Colorado Rockies
65.1%
34.9%
-178
+168
-176
+172
-1½-118
+1½+105
-1½-122
+1½+105
1
2
-0.99916-1.00594-1.05185
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks157-8 (0.467)0-0.65498 
Sportsbooks157-8 (0.467)0-0.65683 
DRatings156-9 (0.400)0-0.67625
-0.02127
-0.01942

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.