MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for July 27, 2021

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
Line
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Washington Nationals (45-54)
Philadelphia Phillies (50-49)
Erick Fedde
Matt Moore
46.8%
53.2%
+112
-120
+114
-119
4.32
4.66
8.98
o9½-122
u10½+105
o10½-120
u11-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Milwaukee Brewers (58-42)
Pittsburgh Pirates (38-61)
Brett Anderson
Luis Oviedo
53.2%
46.8%
-140
+140
-147
+140
4.41
4.08
8.49
o8½-115
u9+100
o9-120
u9+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Miami Marlins (43-57)
Baltimore Orioles (34-64)
Sandy Alcantara
Spenser Watkins
58.0%
42.0%
-125
+115
-125
+119
4.79
3.95
8.74
o9-110
u9½-112
o9-110
u9-105
Volatility Bet Value Active
Atlanta Braves (49-51)
New York Mets (53-45)
Charlie Morton
Jerad Eickhoff
50.9%
49.1%
-145
+135
-143
+135
4.31
4.22
8.53
o9-115
u9-105
o9-110
u9-105
New York Yankees (51-47)
Tampa Bay Rays (60-40)
Jordan Montgomery
Shane McClanahan
46.8%
53.2%
+130
-135
+130
-134
3.88
4.21
8.09
o7½-110
u8-112
o7½-115
u7½+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
St. Louis Cardinals (50-50)
Cleveland Indians (49-48)
Adam Wainwright
Cal Quantrill
51.4%
48.6%
-110
+108
-117
+108
4.00
3.86
7.86
o9-114
u9½-102
o9½-110
u9½+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
PostponedToronto Blue Jays (49-47)
Boston Red Sox (62-39)
Robbie Ray
Garrett Richards
52.8%
47.2%
-137
+127
-136
+130
4.65
4.36
9.01
o11-115
u11+100
o11-115
u11-102
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Cincinnati Reds (51-49)
Chicago Cubs (50-51)
Vladimir Gutierrez
Adbert Alzolay
44.7%
55.3%
+150
-161
+160
-163
4.13
4.68
8.81
o10½-110
u10½+100
o10½-105
u10½-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Arizona Diamondbacks (31-70)
Texas Rangers (35-65)
Taylor Widener
Dane Dunning
46.1%
53.9%
+138
-141
+133
-139
3.89
4.29
8.18
o8½-105
u8½-111
o8½-104
u8½-110
Volatility Bet Value Active
Detroit Tigers (47-55)
Minnesota Twins (43-58)
Tyler Alexander
Kenta Maeda
38.9%
61.1%
+176
-184
+175
-184
3.70
4.87
8.57
o9-110
u9-108
o9-110
u9-105
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Chicago White Sox (59-41)
Kansas City Royals (43-55)
Dylan Cease
Brad Keller
56.6%
43.4%
-141
+131
-143
+139
5.18
4.49
9.67
o10-101
u9½+100
o9½-115
u9½+100
All Bet Values Active
Colorado Rockies (43-57)
Los Angeles Angels (50-49)
Austin Gomber
Jose Suarez
42.8%
57.2%
+121
-131
+130
-133
3.63
4.38
8.01
o9-110
u9-110
o9-105
u9+100
All Bet Values Active
Los Angeles Dodgers (61-40)
San Francisco Giants (62-37)
Julio Urias
Logan Webb
54.4%
45.6%
-116
+115
-116
+112
4.69
4.22
8.91
o8-119
u8½-115
o8-120
u8½-110
Volatility Bet Value Active
Houston Astros (61-40)
Seattle Mariners (55-46)
Lance McCullers
Chris Flexen
57.1%
42.9%
-156
+146
-156
+150
4.62
3.88
8.50
o8½+105
u8-105
o8-115
u8+100
Oakland Athletics (56-45)
San Diego Padres (58-44)
James Kaprielian
Chris Paddack
48.1%
51.9%
+144
-153
+142
-147
4.06
4.26
8.32
o8½-116
u8½+100
o8½-115
u8½+103
Games for Jul 26, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
Line
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Toronto Blue Jays
Boston Red Sox
46.3%
53.7%
+125
-135
+126
-132
4
5
-0.57304-0.57531-0.62109
Washington Nationals
Philadelphia Phillies
45.9%
54.1%
+114
-124
+120
-120
5
6
-0.61201-0.60614-0.61495
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
43.6%
56.4%
+136
-146
+138
-145
2
0
-0.87575-0.87904-0.83039
Chicago White Sox
Milwaukee Brewers
41.9%
58.1%
+149
-155
+147
-154
3
1
-0.92168-0.91532-0.86917
Oakland Athletics
Seattle Mariners
52.3%
47.7%
-128
+118
-128
+121
3
4
-0.79924-0.80679-0.73999
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
35.2%
64.8%
+160
-174
+157
-163
2
3
-0.47353-0.48726-0.43319
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks86-2 (0.750)0-0.61785 
Sportsbooks86-2 (0.750)0-0.62364 
DRatings86-2 (0.750)0-0.64060
-0.02274
-0.01696

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.