MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for July 27, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Texas Rangers (51-52)
Toronto Blue Jays (46-56)
Michael Lorenzen
Kevin Gausman
51.1%
48.9%
+130
-134
+130
-135
+1½-170
-1½+155
+1½-165
-1½+150
4.22
4.11
8.33
o8½-105
u8½-108
o8-120
u8½-110
Volatility Bet Value Active
San Diego Padres (55-50)
Baltimore Orioles (61-41)
Michael King
Dean Kremer
48.3%
51.7%
+104
-110
+102
-110
+1½-205
-1½+180
+1½-197
-1½+180
3.79
3.97
7.76
o9+102
u9-118
o8½-120
u9-115
Atlanta Braves (54-47)
New York Mets (54-48)
Spencer Schwellenbach
Tylor Megill
51.3%
48.7%
+102
-110
+106
-113
+1½-205
-1½+175
+1½-195
-1½+175
4.35
4.21
8.56
o8½-103
u8½-113
o8-115
u8½+100
All Bet Values Active
Cincinnati Reds (49-53)
Tampa Bay Rays (52-51)
Andrew Abbott
Zack Littell
47.8%
52.2%
+110
-115
+108
-110
+1½-210
-1½+190
+1½-204
-1½+190
3.69
3.93
7.62
o7½-115
u8-115
o7½-115
u7½-105
Volatility Bet Value Active
Cleveland Guardians (61-41)
Philadelphia Phillies (64-38)
Carlos Carrasco
Tyler Phillips
41.7%
58.3%
+139
-150
+142
-150
+1½-150
-1½+130
+1½-148
-1½+130
3.97
4.83
8.80
o9-115
u9+107
o9-120
u9+100
Minnesota Twins (56-45)
Detroit Tigers (51-53)
Joe Ryan
Tarik Skubal
45.2%
54.8%
+106
-114
+108
-115
+1½-215
-1½+185
+1½-210
-1½+185
3.03
3.53
6.56
o7-105
u7-105
o7-110
u7-105
Colorado Rockies (38-65)
San Francisco Giants (49-55)
Ryan Feltner
Blake Snell
40.3%
59.7%
+190
-210
+190
-200
+1½-130
-1½+110
+1½-130
-1½+115
4.04
5.06
9.10
o8+110
u8-130
o7½+100
u7½-105
Miami Marlins (37-66)
Milwaukee Brewers (59-43)
Max Meyer
Aaron Civale
41.6%
58.4%

+143
-157

+1½-150
-1½+131
3.35
4.23
7.58

o8-110
u8-110
Overall Bet Value Active
Los Angeles Dodgers (62-42)
Houston Astros (53-49)
Justin Wrobleski
Ronel Blanco
44.1%
55.9%
+124
-130
+122
-130
+1½-177
-1½+157
+1½-170
-1½+160
3.82
4.43
8.25
o9-103
u9-110
o8½-115
u8½+100
Chicago Cubs (49-55)
Kansas City Royals (56-47)
Shota Imanaga
Seth Lugo
43.7%
56.3%
+108
-115
+108
-115
+1½-205
-1½+175
+1½-197
-1½+175
3.47
4.13
7.60
o8-110
u8-103
o8-110
u8-105
Washington Nationals (47-56)
St. Louis Cardinals (53-49)
Jake Irvin
Kyle Gibson
44.3%
55.7%
+120
-128
+120
-130
+1½-175
-1½+155
+1½-170
-1½+160
3.50
4.11
7.61
o8½-108
u8½-108
o8½+100
u8½-115
Seattle Mariners (53-51)
Chicago White Sox (27-78)
Bryan Woo
Erick Fedde
56.2%
43.8%
-140
+132
-139
+133
-1½+118
+1½-135
-1½+115
+1½-128
3.64
2.98
6.62
o7½-103
u7½-110
o7½-105
u7½-110
Overall Bet Value Active
New York Yankees (60-44)
Boston Red Sox (54-47)
Marcus Stroman
Kutter Crawford
50.0%
50.0%
-107
+100
-103
-103
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+150
+1½-155
4.44
4.44
8.88
o10-103
u10-113
o10+100
u9½+105
Volatility Bet Value Active
Pittsburgh Pirates (52-50)
Arizona Diamondbacks (53-50)
Marco Gonzales
Brandon Pfaadt
41.0%
59.0%

+143
-157

+1½-148
-1½+130
3.55
4.49
8.04

o8-115
u8-105
Oakland Athletics (42-63)
Los Angeles Angels (45-58)
Mitch Spence
Tyler Anderson
44.9%
55.1%
+107
-115
+108
-117
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-185
-1½+170
3.72
4.25
7.97
o9-108
u9-108
o9-105
u9½-120
All Bet Values Active
Colorado Rockies (38-65)
San Francisco Giants (49-55)
Undecided Undecided
Hayden Birdsong
39.7%
60.3%




3.83
4.90
8.73


Games for Jul 26, 2024
Games for Jul 28, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
58.8%
41.2%
-112
+107
-110
+108
-1½+152
+1½-165
-1½+165
+1½-165
2
3
-0.73888-0.73693-0.88731
San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers
40.2%
59.8%
+112
-120
+115
-118
+1½-180
-1½+168
+1½-180
-1½+170
4
6
-0.62315-0.62019-0.51448
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
51.2%
48.8%
+100
-110
+107
-107

-1½+170
+1½-180
13
0
-0.71668-0.72755-0.66896
Chicago White Sox
Texas Rangers
30.7%
69.3%
+214
-230
+220
-235
+1½+115
-1½-123
+1½+110
-1½-120
1
2
-0.37634-0.36844-0.36704
Detroit Tigers
Cleveland Guardians
42.2%
57.8%
+133
-141
+135
-142
+1½-158
-1½+142
+1½-160
-1½+143
3
0
-0.86003-0.86664-0.86294
Baltimore Orioles
Miami Marlins
63.6%
36.4%
-195
+183
-201
+190
-1½-128
+1½+120
-1½-130
+1½+115
7
6
-0.42825-0.41633-0.45303
San Diego Padres
Washington Nationals
60.4%
39.6%
-146
+139
-150
+142
-1½+100
+1½-108
-1½+100
+1½-110
3
0
-0.53357-0.52396-0.50350
San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers
33.6%
66.4%
+174
-184
+175
-180
+1½-123
-1½+110
+1½-120
-1½+112
8
3
-1.02074-1.01807-1.08981
Arizona Diamondbacks
Kansas City Royals
45.5%
54.5%
+110
-118
+112
-120
+1½-178
-1½+163
+1½-180
-1½+172
8
6
-0.75927-0.76841-0.78810
Chicago White Sox
Texas Rangers
29.2%
70.8%
+238
-268
+240
-270
+1½+122
-1½-138
+1½+127
-1½-135
2
10
-0.34093-0.33865-0.34487
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
53.2%
46.8%
-115
+106
-112
+104
-1½+142
+1½-158
-1½+152
+1½-160
3
6
-0.74282-0.73126-0.75830
New York Mets
New York Yankees
43.5%
56.5%
+154
-162
+158
-161
+1½-138
-1½+122
+1½-135
-1½+125
12
3
-0.94412-0.95223-0.83179
San Diego Padres
Washington Nationals
51.1%
48.9%
-106
-102
-102
-102

-1½+155
+1½-170
12
3
-0.68377-0.69315-0.67154
Baltimore Orioles
Miami Marlins
58.1%
41.9%
-134
+126
-133
+127
-1½+125
+1½-135
-1½+125
+1½-140
3
6
-0.83037-0.83105-0.87062
Detroit Tigers
Cleveland Guardians
45.0%
55.0%
+131
-136
+133
-134
+1½-175
-1½+160
+1½-175
-1½+160
1
2
-0.56031-0.55932-0.59744
Los Angeles Angels
Seattle Mariners
41.7%
58.3%
+146
-156
+147
-155
+1½-148
-1½+132
+1½-145
-1½+135
2
1
-0.91592-0.91684-0.87505
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks158-6 (0.567)1-0.70673 
Sportsbooks158-7 (0.533)0-0.70673 
DRatings1510-5 (0.667)0-0.68813
0.01860
0.01859

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.