MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 20, 2021

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
Line
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedPittsburgh Pirates (7-9)
Detroit Tigers (6-10)
Tyler Anderson
Michael Fulmer
48.0%
52.0%
+105
-125
+110
-120
4.52
4.74
9.26
o8-105
u8-115
o7½-125
u7½+105
Games for Apr 19, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
Line
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Toronto Blue Jays
Boston Red Sox
52.7%
47.3%
-107
-103
-105
+100
2
4
-0.70249-0.70528-0.74902
San Francisco Giants
Philadelphia Phillies
38.9%
61.1%
+132
-140
+137
-141
10
7
-0.85583-0.86986-0.94376
St. Louis Cardinals
Washington Nationals
52.4%
47.6%
+100
-109
+105
-110
2
3
-0.67229-0.65817-0.74259
Baltimore Orioles
Miami Marlins
45.2%
54.8%
+108
-113
+108
-115
7
5
-0.74360-0.74790-0.79345
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cincinnati Reds
47.6%
52.4%
+133
-143
+136
-142
3
4
-0.54771-0.54356-0.64628
Atlanta Braves
New York Yankees
47.5%
52.5%
+114
-118
+111
-118
1
3
-0.62235-0.62891-0.64493
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks158-6 (0.567)1-0.66540 
Sportsbooks159-6 (0.600)0-0.66548 
DRatings1510-5 (0.667)0-0.68093
-0.01553
-0.01545

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.