MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 20, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Washington Nationals (68-84)
Chicago Cubs (77-75)
Trevor Williams
Jameson Taillon
44.2%
55.8%
+151
-163
+152
-163
+1½-135
-1½+115
+1½-135
-1½+117
3.86
4.47
8.33
o9-105
u9-115
o9-105
u9-115
Pittsburgh Pirates (71-81)
Cincinnati Reds (74-79)
Mitch Keller
Nick Martinez
50.1%
49.9%
+110
-118
+115
-123
+1½-180
-1½+150
+1½-175
-1½+170
4.27
4.26
8.53
o9-103
u9-113
o9+100
u9-110
Volatility Bet Value Active
Toronto Blue Jays (72-80)
Tampa Bay Rays (74-78)
Jose Berrios
Tyler Alexander
48.9%
51.1%
+100
-108
+100
-108
-1½+155
+1½-185

4.00
4.12
8.12
o7½-113
u7½-103
o7½-115
u7½-105
Detroit Tigers (80-73)
Baltimore Orioles (84-68)
Keider Montero
Corbin Burnes
35.0%
65.0%
+165
-200
+174
-192
+1½-140
-1½+115
+1½-130
-1½+110
3.07
4.64
7.71
o7½-115
u7½-105
o7½-120
u7½+100
Philadelphia Phillies (91-61)
New York Mets (84-68)
Cristopher Sanchez
David Peterson
49.7%
50.3%
-104
-104
-104
-105
+1½-235
-1½+200
+1½-225
-1½+200
3.75
3.78
7.53
o7½+102
u7½-115
o7½+100
u7½-120
Atlanta Braves (82-70)
Miami Marlins (56-96)
Charlie Morton
Valente Bellozo
57.2%
42.8%
-192
+176
-199
+181
-1½-118
+1½+105
-1½-115
+1½+102
4.36
3.61
7.97
o8½-113
u8½+100
o8½-115
u9-120
Minnesota Twins (80-72)
Boston Red Sox (76-76)
David Festa
Richard Fitts
47.3%
52.7%
-108
+103
-103
-105
-1½+140
+1½-170
-1½+150
+1½-170
3.77
4.05
7.82
o9+100
u9-113
o9+100
u9-115
Seattle Mariners (77-75)
Texas Rangers (73-79)
George Kirby
Jacob deGrom
50.9%
49.1%
+108
-114
+110
-114
+1½-215
-1½+185
+1½-204
-1½+185
3.84
3.74
7.58
o7-118
u7+107
o7-105
u7½-120
Volatility Bet Value Active
Arizona Diamondbacks (84-68)
Milwaukee Brewers (88-64)
Zac Gallen
Colin Rea
49.6%
50.4%
-118
+109
-120
+110
-1½+135
+1½-152
-1½+145
+1½-155
4.05
4.08
8.13
o7½-120
u8-113
o8+100
u8-115
Los Angeles Angels (62-90)
Houston Astros (82-70)
Tyler Anderson
Justin Verlander
36.2%
63.8%
+222
-245
+227
-240
+1½-105
-1½-115
+1½+102
-1½-115
3.13
4.57
7.70
o8-117
u8+102
o8-120
u8+100
San Francisco Giants (74-78)
Kansas City Royals (82-71)
Mason Black
Michael Wacha
43.2%
56.8%
+150
-156
+152
-154
+1½-145
-1½+125
+1½-140
-1½+131
4.12
4.83
8.95
o8½+102
u8½-115
o8½+100
u8+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
Cleveland Guardians (88-65)
St. Louis Cardinals (77-75)
Ben Lively
Kyle Gibson
49.4%
50.6%
+102
-111
+100
-110
+1½-215
-1½+185
+1½-211
-1½+185
3.79
3.86
7.65
o8-115
u8½-115
o8-110
u8-105
New York Yankees (89-63)
Oakland Athletics (67-86)
Gerrit Cole
J.T. Ginn
59.5%
40.5%
-185
+169
-184
+175
-1½-110
+1½+100
-1½-110
+1½-105
4.68
3.69
8.37
o8-113
u8+100
o8-105
u8-105
Chicago White Sox (36-117)
San Diego Padres (87-66)
Garrett Crochet
Joe Musgrove
30.9%
69.1%
+205
-226
+215
-225
+1½-107
-1½-110
+1½-110
-1½-103
2.56
4.50
7.06
o7-110
u7-103
o7-105
u7+100
Colorado Rockies (59-94)
Los Angeles Dodgers (90-62)
Kyle Freeland
Undecided Undecided
34.3%
65.7%
+195
-240

+1½-110
-1½-110

3.42
5.05
8.47


Games for Sep 19, 2024
Games for Sep 21, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Philadelphia Phillies
Milwaukee Brewers
48.0%
52.0%
-102
-107
+102
-105
+1½-205
-1½+190
+1½-210
-1½+190
1
2
-0.68152-0.67627-0.65475
Washington Nationals
New York Mets
42.3%
57.7%
+159
-165
+155
-165
+1½-142
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+132
0
10
-0.48248-0.48848-0.55055
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
50.3%
49.7%
-102
-108
+105
-106
+1½-210
-1½+189
+1½-210
-1½+185
2
1
-0.70719-0.72021-0.68796
Houston Astros
San Diego Padres
47.0%
53.0%
-103
-106
+103
-105

-1½+170
+1½-180
0
4
-0.68615-0.67383-0.63578
Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Guardians
45.9%
54.1%
+120
-128
+120
-128
+1½-190
-1½+175
+1½-185
-1½+173
4
5
-0.59314-0.59314-0.61439
Atlanta Braves
Cincinnati Reds
53.5%
46.5%
-131
+121
-127
+126
-1½+120
+1½-133
-1½+127
+1½-130
7
1
-0.58663-0.58272-0.62616
Los Angeles Dodgers
Miami Marlins
57.9%
42.1%
-195
+185
-190
+181
-1½-128
+1½+112
-1½-120
+1½+110
8
4
-0.42580-0.43383-0.54685
San Francisco Giants
Baltimore Orioles
43.5%
56.5%
+148
-155
+148
-155
+1½-143
-1½+130
+1½-150
-1½+134
5
3
-0.91925-0.91925-0.83200
Chicago White Sox
Los Angeles Angels
39.6%
60.4%
+128
-137
+130
-132
+1½-158
-1½+150
+1½-160
-1½+155
3
4
-0.56460-0.56768-0.50445
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
52.6%
47.4%
-170
+161
-165
+155
-1½-113
+1½+102
-1½-112
+1½+100
9
4
-0.47531-0.48848-0.64263
Oakland Athletics
Chicago Cubs
38.4%
61.6%
+161
-168
+160
-173
+1½-137
-1½+127
+1½-135
-1½+122
5
3
-0.96932-0.97366-0.95805
Houston Astros
San Diego Padres
44.5%
55.5%
+109
-114
+108
-114
+1½-205
-1½+180
+1½-205
-1½+190
4
3
-0.74828-0.74575-0.80916
New York Yankees
Seattle Mariners
50.5%
49.5%
-104
-103
-105
-103
-1½+160
+1½-173
-1½+160
+1½-175
11
2
-0.69079-0.68844-0.68399
Chicago White Sox
Los Angeles Angels
39.8%
60.2%
+135
-141
+136
-142
+1½-157
-1½+142
+1½-155
-1½+141
0
5
-0.54657-0.54356-0.50746
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
54.7%
45.3%
-132
+123
-129
+125
-1½+107
+1½-123
-1½+110
+1½-120
2
8
-0.81925-0.81867-0.79235
Toronto Blue Jays
Texas Rangers
44.5%
55.5%
+116
-125
+120
-125
+1½-180
-1½+165
+1½-180
-1½+165
8
13
-0.60613-0.59784-0.58807
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.59106 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.59168 
DRatings127-5 (0.583)0-0.60880
-0.01773
-0.01712

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.