MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 9, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Kansas City Royals (22-16)
Los Angeles Angels (14-23)
Michael Wacha
Reid Detmers
46.7%
53.3%
-115
+108
-108
+105
-1½+147
+1½-155
-1½+155
+1½-165
4.12
4.47
8.59
o8½+105
u8-103
o8½+100
u8½-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 8, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
St. Louis Cardinals (15-21)
Milwaukee Brewers (21-15)
52.8%
47.2%
-132
+125
-130
+125
-1½+125
+1½-133
-1½+125
+1½-134
7.49
o7½-103
u7½-105
o7½-105
u7½-110
6th
BOT
1
6
Cleveland Guardians (24-13)
Chicago White Sox (9-28)
63.3%
36.7%
-144
+136
-144
+139
-1½+114
+1½-128
-1½+110
+1½-125
7.23
o7½-113
u7½+100
o7½-115
u8-115
4th
BOT
0
3

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Detroit Tigers
Cleveland Guardians
40.4%
59.6%
+110
-114
+112
-117
+1½-188
-1½+175
+1½-190
-1½+176
4
5
-0.63864-0.62854-0.51723
Toronto Blue Jays
Philadelphia Phillies
43.2%
56.8%
+147
-156
+149
-155
+1½-135
-1½+125
+1½-140
-1½+128
5
3
-0.91834-0.92168-0.83914
Los Angeles Angels
Pittsburgh Pirates
43.2%
56.8%
+124
-131
+120
-128
+1½-168
-1½+155
+1½-175
-1½+160
5
4
-0.81991-0.80428-0.83961
Miami Marlins
Los Angeles Dodgers
31.4%
68.6%
+287
-320
+270
-309
+1½+142
-1½-155
+1½+150
-1½-155
2
8
-0.29204-0.30582-0.37619
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
53.2%
46.8%
-151
+143
-147
+146
-1½-105
+1½-108
-1½+100
+1½-110
5
0
-0.52120-0.52059-0.63034
New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals
51.8%
48.2%
+109
-118
+112
-120
+1½-188
-1½+170
+1½-185
-1½+170
7
5
-0.75673-0.76841-0.65790
Milwaukee Brewers
Kansas City Royals
50.4%
49.6%
+119
-126
+115
-122
+1½-170
-1½+160
+1½-175
-1½+165
6
5
-0.79795-0.78001-0.68560
Seattle Mariners
Minnesota Twins
40.0%
60.0%
+156
-157
+148
-153
+1½-148
-1½+135
+1½-150
-1½+136
10
6
-0.94151-0.91619-0.91632
San Diego Padres
Chicago Cubs
41.5%
58.5%
+154
-164
+160
-165
+1½-138
-1½+125
+1½-135
-1½+125
2
3
-0.49089-0.48102-0.53626
Boston Red Sox
Atlanta Braves
39.3%
60.7%
+169
-179
+170
-175
+1½-128
-1½+112
+1½-125
-1½+115
2
4
-0.45706-0.45869-0.49852
Houston Astros
New York Yankees
48.4%
51.6%
+109
-117
+113
-119
+1½-180
-1½+165
+1½-178
-1½+170
3
10
-0.63522-0.62273-0.66196
Los Angeles Angels
Pittsburgh Pirates
43.5%
56.5%
+124
-130
+122
-127
+1½-175
-1½+162
+1½-175
-1½+160
9
0
-0.81805-0.80737-0.83266
Chicago White Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
31.9%
68.1%
+232
-250
+233
-250
+1½+115
-1½-123
+1½+120
-1½-123
1
5
-0.35184-0.35095-0.38358
Baltimore Orioles
Washington Nationals
66.6%
33.4%
-200
+190
-210
+193
-1½-128
+1½+115
-1½-130
+1½+120
0
3
-1.07614-1.09354-1.09667
Toronto Blue Jays
Philadelphia Phillies
47.7%
52.3%
+103
-111
+107
-112
+1½-195
-1½+180
+1½-200
-1½+185
1
10
-0.66083-0.64942-0.64789
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cincinnati Reds
48.4%
51.6%
-125
+120
-122
+118
-1½+127
+1½-140
-1½+127
+1½-145
6
2
-0.59784-0.60690-0.72486
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks41-3 (0.250)0-0.78938 
Sportsbooks41-3 (0.250)0-0.79206 
DRatings41-3 (0.250)0-0.78528
0.00410
0.00677

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.