MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 18, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Los Angeles Angels (8-9)
Tampa Bay Rays (10-8)
Griffin Canning
Ryan Pepiot
42.9%
57.1%
+136
-146
+140
-147
+1½-160
-1½+140
+1½-150
-1½+140
3.81
4.55
8.36
o8½-113
u8½+100
o8½-115
u8½+100
Texas Rangers (9-9)
Detroit Tigers (10-7)
Jack Leiter
Kenta Maeda
51.9%
48.1%
-104
-102
-104
-103
+1½-215
-1½+185
+1½-210
-1½+185
4.43
4.22
8.65
o8½-103
u8½-110
o8½+100
u8½-115
Cleveland Guardians (12-5)
Boston Red Sox (9-9)
Carlos Carrasco
Brennan Bernardino
46.4%
53.6%




4.06
4.44
8.50


Miami Marlins (4-14)
Chicago Cubs (10-7)
A.J. Puk
Jameson Taillon
41.9%
58.1%
+138
-147
+142
-150

+1½-159
-1½+140
3.59
4.45
8.04

o8+100
u8-120
Arizona Diamondbacks (9-9)
San Francisco Giants (7-11)
Ryne Nelson
Logan Webb
43.2%
56.8%
+150
-161
+155
-165
+1½-150
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+130
4.14
4.86
9.00
o8-103
u8-113
o8-105
u8-115
Games for Apr 17, 2024
Games for Apr 19, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
St. Louis Cardinals
Oakland Athletics
60.2%
39.8%
-166
+160
-166
+160
-1½+100
+1½-108
-1½-105
+1½-105
3
1
-0.48015-0.48015-0.50735
Chicago Cubs
Arizona Diamondbacks
43.1%
56.9%
+139
-143
+143
-150
+1½-143
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+130
3
2
-0.87815-0.89936-0.84146
Atlanta Braves
Houston Astros
53.1%
46.9%
-113
+106
-113
+106
-1½+135
+1½-138
-1½+140
+1½-142
6
1
-0.64972-0.64972-0.63239
Kansas City Royals
Chicago White Sox
62.9%
37.1%
-166
+157
-166
+159
-1½-104
+1½+102
-1½-105
+1½-105
2
0
-0.48459-0.48162-0.46288
San Diego Padres
Milwaukee Brewers
46.9%
53.1%
+102
-110
+104
-106
+1½-197
-1½+180

7
3
-0.72177-0.71769-0.75805
Pittsburgh Pirates
New York Mets
44.2%
55.8%
+111
-119
+114
-121
+1½-190
-1½+172
+1½-185
-1½+170
3
6
-0.62712-0.61706-0.58379
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays
49.2%
50.8%
+107
-110
+108
-110
+1½-190
-1½+183
+1½-200
-1½+180
1
3
-0.65350-0.65120-0.67639
Los Angeles Angels
Tampa Bay Rays
41.0%
59.0%
+150
-155
+146
-155
+1½-138
-1½+125
+1½-143
-1½+130
7
3
-0.92410-0.91442-0.89152
Texas Rangers
Detroit Tigers
51.3%
48.7%
+111
-119
+116
-118
+1½-180
-1½+170

1
0
-0.76385-0.77434-0.66686
San Francisco Giants
Miami Marlins
51.0%
49.0%
-109
+102
-111
+102
-1½+150
+1½-158
-1½+145
+1½-160
4
3
-0.66744-0.66322-0.67238
Colorado Rockies
Philadelphia Phillies
32.6%
67.4%
+230
-245
+227
-250
+1½+110
-1½-118
+1½+110
-1½-120
1
2
-0.35538-0.35636-0.39421
Minnesota Twins
Baltimore Orioles
43.2%
56.8%
+120
-127
+119
-120
+1½-168
-1½+155
+1½-170
-1½+160
4
7
-0.59470-0.60822-0.56611
Cleveland Guardians
Boston Red Sox
45.7%
54.3%
+143
-150
+145
-152
+1½-145
-1½+137
+1½-145
-1½+133
6
0
-0.89936-0.90736-0.78362
San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Dodgers
43.1%
56.9%
+140
-150
+145
-151
+1½-149
-1½+142
+1½-145
-1½+135
6
3
-0.89199-0.90580-0.84227
Chicago Cubs
Seattle Mariners
47.3%
52.7%
+129
-138
+133
-136
+1½-173
-1½+157
+1½-174
-1½+160
3
2
-0.84492-0.85132-0.74893
St. Louis Cardinals
Arizona Diamondbacks
42.0%
58.0%
+128
-136
+126
-131
+1½-162
-1½+147
+1½-165
-1½+150
0
5
-0.56593-0.57675-0.54387
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks169-7 (0.562)0-0.69408 
Sportsbooks169-7 (0.562)0-0.69471 
DRatings1610-6 (0.625)0-0.69001
0.00407
0.00470

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.