MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 21, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedBaltimore Orioles (29-16)
St. Louis Cardinals (21-26)
Kyle Bradish
Lance Lynn
57.6%
42.4%
-155
+147
-155
+149
-1½-103
+1½-110
-1½-105
+1½-110
4.40
3.60
8.00
o9-108
u9-105
o9+100
u9-110
Arizona Diamondbacks (22-26)
Los Angeles Dodgers (33-17)
Brandon Pfaadt
Gavin Stone
37.7%
62.3%
+147
-153
+152
-160
+1½-135
-1½+127
+1½-140
-1½+125
3.91
5.19
9.10
o8½-105
u8½-108
o8½+105
u8½-115
Overall Bet Value Active
Games for May 20, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Seattle Mariners (26-22)
New York Yankees (33-16)
43.2%
56.8%
+144
-151
+148
-152
+1½-148
-1½+135
+1½-150
-1½+136
8.42
o8½+102
u8+103
o8-120
u8+100
9th
BOT
6
3
Atlanta Braves (27-17)
Chicago Cubs (26-22)
50.4%
49.6%
-118
+108
-116
+112
-1½+142
+1½-140
-1½+125
+1½-135
7.88
o12-103
u11½+100
o11½-115
u11½+105
7th
TOP
3
3
Los Angeles Angels (19-29)
Houston Astros (21-27)
30.5%
69.5%
+177
-185
+182
-190
+1½-113
-1½+100
+1½-110
-1½+100
8.61
o9-105
u9-108
o9-110
u9-110
6th
BOT
4
4
Colorado Rockies (15-31)
Oakland Athletics (19-30)
47.8%
52.2%
+110
-116
+114
-117
+1½-188
-1½+170
+1½-185
-1½+184
7.57
o7½-105
u7½-103
o7½-115
u7½+100
2nd
TOP
2
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs
50.6%
49.4%
-107
+102
-111
+105
-1½+152
+1½-168
-1½+150
+1½-170
9
3
-0.67178-0.65610-0.68023
Cincinnati Reds
Los Angeles Dodgers
31.5%
68.5%
+262
-300
+270
-290
+1½+142
-1½-145
+1½+140
-1½-143
7
2
-1.31237-1.32208-1.15575
Oakland Athletics
Houston Astros
31.3%
68.7%
+185
-193
+190
-187
+1½-113
-1½+100
+1½-105
-1½+102
1
8
-0.42702-0.42477-0.37491
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs
45.9%
54.1%
+110
-117
+116
-120
+1½-195
-1½+173
+1½-185
-1½+175
5
4
-0.75717-0.77849-0.77783
Tampa Bay Rays
Boston Red Sox
47.0%
53.0%
-104
-105
-102
-104

+1½-200
-1½+200
7
5
-0.69549-0.69794-0.75436
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
44.0%
56.0%
+130
-132
+131
-137
+1½-163
-1½+150
+1½-159
-1½+150
6
5
-0.83665-0.84814-0.81987
New York Yankees
Minnesota Twins
45.9%
54.1%
+110
-113
+104
-112
+1½-193
-1½+175
+1½-185
-1½+176
5
0
-0.74862-0.73126-0.77823
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
57.9%
42.1%
-133
+126
-131
+125
-1½+127
+1½-140
-1½+125
+1½-135
1
4
-0.82858-0.82241-0.86624
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Angels
55.1%
44.9%
-114
+107
-115
+110
-1½+142
+1½-158
-1½+140
+1½-158
2
7
-0.74322-0.75294-0.80040
Oakland Athletics
Houston Astros
30.1%
69.9%
+215
-230
+220
-230
+1½+107
-1½-115
+1½+105
-1½-120
0
3
-0.37533-0.37044-0.35752
Cleveland Guardians
Texas Rangers
42.0%
58.0%
+175
-183
+178
-175
+1½-118
-1½+105
+1½-116
-1½+105
0
4
-0.44619-0.44805-0.54412
New York Yankees
Minnesota Twins
46.8%
53.2%
+126
-132
+124
-130
+1½-173
-1½+160
+1½-175
-1½+160
4
0
-0.82675-0.81805-0.75933
Chicago Cubs
Atlanta Braves
41.8%
58.2%
+163
-173
+167
-179
+1½-123
-1½+107
+1½-125
-1½+108
7
1
-0.98080-0.99807-0.87122
Tampa Bay Rays
Boston Red Sox
42.6%
57.4%
+120
-126
+120
-128
+1½-173
-1½+157
+1½-175
-1½+155
4
3
-0.80044-0.80428-0.85238
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
37.5%
62.5%
+175
-185
+185
-190
+1½-108
-1½+105
+1½-115
-1½+105
5
10
-0.44482-0.42889-0.47074
Kansas City Royals
Seattle Mariners
42.7%
57.3%
+128
-136
+132
-137
+1½-163
-1½+150
+1½-165
-1½+150
2
4
-0.56593-0.55713-0.55638
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks106-4 (0.600)0-0.66413 
Sportsbooks106-4 (0.600)0-0.66175 
DRatings107-3 (0.700)0-0.62199
0.04214
0.03977

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.