NCAA Football Predictions


Welcome to our page on college football computer predictions. Our predictions listed on this page will be updated on the Monday afternoon that precedes the week’s games. This projection system was designed to use past data to predict college football games in the future. The predictions that you will see here do not account for weather and have a slight lag effect for significant injuries. There is always some element of error in the predictions. I encourage you to read my disclaimer page for more information.

While we list our weekly game projections here, you can find our NCAA college football bowl projections at 2018-2019 College Football Bowl Projections. Also, this year and for the first time, we are doing FCS Playoff Projections. This will be updated before the beginning of the season and will be updated much more often as we get closer to bowl season. One can also refer to our FBS ratings and FCS ratings for more information. Both of our college football rating systems are updated weekly on Sunday morning.

The predictions on these college football games are to be used for informational purposes only.

All upcoming college football predictions are listed below. Enjoy the information!

Week 1 FBS College Football Score Predictions

Time Matchup Teams Lines – Updated 8/20 @ 2:34 pm Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Points
8/24 Florida vs Miami FL Florida
-280
-290
-280
49.8%
24.64
49.38
Miami FL
+235
+245
+230
50.2%
24.74
8/24 Arizona at Hawaii Arizona
-385
-410
-400
66.8%
36.66
68.69
Hawaii
+325
+330
+300
33.2%
32.02
8/29 Kent at Arizona St Kent
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
18.2%
22.06
56.59
Arizona St
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
81.8%
34.52
8/29 UCLA at Cincinnati UCLA
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
30.5%
25.43
56.33
Cincinnati
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
69.5%
30.89
8/29 Florida Intl at Tulane Florida Intl
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
47.8%
24.41
49.68
Tulane
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
52.2%
25.27
8/29 Texas St at Texas A&M Texas St
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
2.5%
17.93
61.53
Texas A&M
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
97.5%
43.60
8/29 Georgia Tech at Clemson Georgia Tech
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
2%
18.56
64.78
Clemson
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
98%
46.22
8/29 Utah at BYU Utah
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
52.6%
25.34
49.55
BYU
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
47.4%
24.20
8/30 Rice at Army Rice
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
10.5%
18.74
56.65
Army
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
89.5%
37.90
8/30 Colorado vs Colorado St Colorado
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
75.9%
32.48
57.06
Colorado St
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
24.1%
24.58
8/30 Massachusetts at Rutgers Massachusetts
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
35.6%
25.56
54.89
Rutgers
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
64.4%
29.32
8/30 Tulsa at Michigan St Tulsa
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
14.7%
21.94
58.64
Michigan St
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
85.3%
36.70
8/30 Purdue at Nevada Purdue
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
68.3%
29.90
54.67
Nevada
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
31.7%
24.76
8/30 Oklahoma St at Oregon St Oklahoma St
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
79%
38.12
64.90
Oregon St
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
21%
26.78
8/30 Wisconsin at South Florida Wisconsin
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
68.3%
27.86
50.59
South Florida
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
31.7%
22.72
8/30 Utah St at Wake Forest Utah St
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
48.3%
24.68
50.03
Wake Forest
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
51.7%
25.34
8/31 Akron at Illinois Akron
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
22.4%
21.20
51.57
Illinois
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
77.6%
30.36
8/31 Alabama vs Duke Alabama
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
87.2%
35.26
54.53
Duke
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
12.8%
19.26
8/31 SMU at Arkansas St SMU
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
42.7%
28.90
60.46
Arkansas St
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
57.3%
31.56
8/31 Oregon vs Auburn Oregon
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
26.2%
26.39
60.18
Auburn
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
73.8%
33.79
8/31 Indiana vs Ball St Indiana
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
82.7%
36.21
59.42
Ball St
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
17.3%
23.21
8/31 Virginia Tech at Boston College Virginia Tech
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
37.5%
22.13
47.63
Boston College
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
62.5%
25.49
8/31 E Michigan at Coastal Car E Michigan
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
74.5%
31.98
56.42
Coastal Car
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
25.5%
24.44
8/31 Fresno St at USC Fresno St
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
32%
24.89
54.74
USC
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
68%
29.85
8/31 Ga Southern at LSU Ga Southern
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
10.5%
17.69
55.04
LSU
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
89.5%
37.35
8/31 Georgia at Vanderbilt Georgia
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
77.1%
29.22
49.61
Vanderbilt
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
22.9%
20.38
8/31 Georgia St at Tennessee Georgia St
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
14%
20.40
56.17
Tennessee
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
86%
35.76
8/31 Miami OH at Iowa Miami OH
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
15.3%
18.27
50.71
Iowa
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
84.7%
32.44
8/31 Toledo at Kentucky Toledo
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
22.5%
25.18
59.42
Kentucky
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
77.5%
34.24
8/31 Louisiana vs Mississippi St Louisiana
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
13.8%
21.27
58.55
Mississippi St
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
86.2%
37.27
8/31 Louisiana Tech at Texas Louisiana Tech
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
10.5%
20.45
60.57
Texas
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
89.5%
40.11
8/31 Mississippi at Memphis Mississippi
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
30.3%
27.81
61.99
Memphis
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
69.7%
34.17
8/31 MTSU at Michigan MTSU
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
3.7%
16.86
58.39
Michigan
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
96.3%
41.52
8/31 Missouri at Wyoming Missouri
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
78.3%
31.10
52.37
Wyoming
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
21.7%
21.26
8/31 South Alabama at Nebraska South Alabama
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
3.7%
18.03
60.73
Nebraska
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
96.3%
42.69
8/31 New Mexico St at Washington St New Mexico St
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
10.3%
22.85
66.36
Washington St
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
89.7%
43.51
8/31 South Carolina vs North Carolina South Carolina
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
60.6%
29.18
55.17
North Carolina
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
39.4%
25.98
8/31 Northwestern at Stanford Northwestern
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
31.7%
20.72
46.51
Stanford
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
68.3%
25.78
8/31 Virginia at Pittsburgh Virginia
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
33.2%
24.29
53.15
Pittsburgh
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
66.8%
28.85
8/31 Boise St at Florida St Boise St
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
32.6%
25.22
55.20
Florida St
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
67.4%
29.98
8/31 Syracuse at Liberty Syracuse
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
80.3%
34.98
57.62
Liberty
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
19.7%
22.64
8/31 East Carolina at NC State East Carolina
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
12.1%
22.43
61.52
NC State
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
87.9%
39.09
8/31 FL Atlantic at Ohio St FL Atlantic
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
10.4%
21.82
63.80
Ohio St
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
89.6%
41.98
9/1 Houston at Oklahoma Houston
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
3.7%
22.44
69.54
Oklahoma
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
96.3%
47.10
9/2 Notre Dame at Louisville Notre Dame
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
81.8%
36.08
58.83
Louisville
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
18.2%
22.74

FCS College Football Game Predictions

Date Matchup Prediction Teams Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Points
8/24 Villanova at Colgate Colgate wins by 7 Villanova
29.8%
19.44
45.45
Colgate
70.2%
26.00
8/24 Youngstown St at Samford Samford wins by 4 Youngstown St
40.6%
24.41
51.88
Samford
59.4%
27.47
8/29 Bryant at Stony Brook Stony Brook wins by 23 Bryant
8.9%
15.13
52.42
Stony Brook
91.1%
37.29
8/29 E Illinois at Chattanooga Chattanooga wins by 8 E Illinois
27.3%
22.41
51.88
Chattanooga
72.7%
29.47
8/29 Delaware St at Delaware Delaware wins by 26 Delaware St
2.6%
13.48
52.13
Delaware
97.4%
38.65
8/29 Jacksonville at Richmond Richmond wins by 16 Jacksonville
13.4%
22.28
60.23
Richmond
86.6%
37.94
8/29 Missouri St at Northern Arizona Northern Arizona wins by 1 Missouri St
48.3%
27.60
55.86
Northern Arizona
51.7%
28.26
8/29 W Illinois at North Alabama W Illinois wins by 8 W Illinois
75.3%
29.50
51.17
North Alabama
24.7%
21.66
8/29 Northwestern LA at TN Martin TN Martin wins by 2 Northwestern LA
45.9%
26.87
55.41
TN Martin
54.1%
28.53
8/29 S Illinois at SE Missouri St SE Missouri St wins by 3 S Illinois
44.7%
27.07
56.20
SE Missouri St
55.3%
29.13
8/29 Valparaiso at E Kentucky E Kentucky wins by 9 Valparaiso
22.8%
23.28
55.42
E Kentucky
77.2%
32.14
8/29 NC Central at Austin Peay Austin Peay wins by 9 NC Central
22.9%
22.01
52.79
Austin Peay
77.1%
30.77
8/29 Jacksonville St at SE Louisiana Jacksonville St wins by 2 Jacksonville St
52.8%
27.13
53.02
SE Louisiana
47.2%
25.89
8/30 Sacred Heart at Maine Maine wins by 10 Sacred Heart
22%
18.14
45.85
Maine
78%
27.70
8/31 N Dakota St vs Butler N Dakota St wins by 29 N Dakota St
98.3%
43.45
57.90
Butler
1.7%
14.45
8/31 San Diego at Cal Poly Cal Poly wins by 5 San Diego
34.4%
26.19
56.55
Cal Poly
65.6%
30.35
8/31 Charleston So at Furman Furman wins by 14 Charleston So
16.3%
18.49
50.74
Furman
83.7%
32.25
8/31 Towson at Citadel Towson wins by 3 Towson
58%
25.59
48.24
Citadel
42%
22.65
8/31 Georgetown at Davidson Georgetown wins by 2 Georgetown
52.8%
24.26
47.29
Davidson
47.2%
23.02
8/31 Lafayette at William & Mary William & Mary wins by 11 Lafayette
21%
17.77
46.01
William & Mary
79%
28.23
8/31 Mercer at W Carolina Mercer wins by 3 Mercer
55.3%
28.69
55.24
W Carolina
44.7%
26.55
8/31 Montana at South Dakota South Dakota wins by 4 Montana
39.6%
26.16
55.49
South Dakota
60.4%
29.32
8/31 MS Valley St at Tennessee St Tennessee St wins by 20 MS Valley St
10.5%
19.58
58.32
Tennessee St
89.5%
38.74
8/31 Samford at Tennessee Tech Samford wins by 21 Samford
89.5%
40.36
59.89
Tennessee Tech
10.5%
19.52
8/31 Wofford at S Carolina St Wofford wins by 10 Wofford
78.3%
27.97
46.10
S Carolina St
21.7%
18.13
8/31 St Francis PA at Lehigh Lehigh wins by 1 St Francis PA
49%
25.81
51.98
Lehigh
51%
26.17
8/31 Portland St at Arkansas Arkansas wins by 9 Portland St
22.6%
25.71
60.39
Arkansas
77.4%
34.67
8/31 Northern Iowa at Iowa St Iowa St wins by 7 Northern Iowa
30.3%
22.22
50.90
Iowa St
69.7%
28.68
8/31 Central Conn at Fordham Central Conn wins by 3 Central Conn
55%
27.98
53.93
Fordham
45%
25.94
8/31 Elon at NC A&T Elon wins by 2 Elon
54.4%
22.87
43.90
NC A&T
45.6%
21.03
8/31 Prairie View at TX Southern Prairie View wins by 6 Prairie View
69.5%
31.70
57.87
TX Southern
30.5%
26.16
8/31 Drake at North Dakota North Dakota wins by 5 Drake
32.6%
22.02
48.80
North Dakota
67.4%
26.78
8/31 Southern Univ at McNeese St McNeese St wins by 5 Southern Univ
34.4%
25.48
55.12
McNeese St
65.6%
29.64
8/31 Presbyterian at Stetson Stetson wins by 13 Presbyterian
17.8%
17.63
48.03
Stetson
82.2%
30.39
9/1 Jackson St vs Bethune-Cookman Bethune-Cookman wins by 4 Jackson St
37.6%
22.48
48.36
Bethune-Cookman
62.4%
25.88

Recent FBS Game Prediction Results

Date Teams SB Consensus DRatings Odds to Win1 Final Score Sportsbook Log Loss DRatings Log Loss
12/15 North Texas +220 0.293 13 -0.35956 -0.34672
Utah State -260 0.707 52
12/15 Tulane -165 0.623 41 -0.50412 -0.47321
UL Lafayette +145 0.377 24
12/15 Arizona State +185 0.439 20 -0.41 -0.57803
Fresno State -225 0.561 31
12/15 Eastern Michigan +115 0.494 21 -0.59313 -0.68122
Georgia Southern -135 0.506 23
12/15 Middle Tenn St +205 0.348 13 -0.3796 -0.42771
Appalachian St -245 0.652 45
12/18 Northern Illinois -103 0.512 13 -0.66323 -0.71744
UAB -117 0.488 37
12/19 Ohio -130 0.595 27 -0.61112 -0.51919
San Diego State +110 0.405 0
12/20 Marshall -160 0.495 38 -0.51706 -0.7032
South Florida +140 0.505 20
12/21 Florida Intl +240 0.42 35 -1.25427 -0.8675
Toledo -280 0.58 32
12/21 BYU -430 0.61 49 -0.2445 -0.4943
Western Michigan +345 0.39 18
12/22 Wake Forest +105 0.434 37 -0.76029 -0.83471
Memphis -125 0.566 34
12/22 Houston +200 0.507 14 -0.38677 -0.70725
Army -240 0.493 70
12/22 Buffalo -135 0.585 32 -0.80429 -0.87948
Troy +115 0.415 42
12/22 Louisiana Tech -118 0.519 31 -0.65901 -0.65585
Hawaii -102 0.481 14
12/26 Minnesota +190 0.391 34 -1.10566 -0.93905
Georgia Tech -230 0.609 10
12/26 TCU -123 0.564 10 -0.63822 -0.5727
California +103 0.436 7
12/27 Duke +155 0.541 56 -0.96421 -0.61434
Temple -175 0.459 27
12/27 Miami Florida -148 0.466 3 -0.85893 -0.62736
Wisconsin +128 0.534 35
12/27 Vanderbilt -200 0.661 38 -1.02962 -1.08176
Baylor +170 0.339 45
12/28 Auburn -170 0.688 63 -0.49182 -0.37397
Purdue +150 0.312 14
12/28 Syracuse -140 0.503 34 -0.57618 -0.68717
West Virginia +120 0.497 18
12/28 Iowa State +120 0.353 26 -0.57618 -0.43541
Washington State -140 0.647 28
12/29 Arkansas State +105 0.555 13 -0.63023 -0.80968
Nevada -125 0.445 16
12/29 Florida +165 0.296 41 -1.00657 -1.2174
Michigan -190 0.704 15
12/29 South Carolina -175 0.588 0 -0.96421 -0.88673
Virginia +155 0.412 28
12/29 Oklahoma +520 0.094 34 -0.16813 -0.09872
Alabama -740 0.906 45
12/29 Notre Dame +315 0.193 3 -0.26572 -0.21443
Clemson -380 0.807 30
12/31 Virginia Tech +190 0.417 31 -0.40196 -0.53957
Cincinnati -230 0.583 35
12/31 Pittsburgh +153 0.448 13 -0.48473 -0.59421
Stanford -173 0.552 14
12/31 Michigan State -118 0.472 6 -0.72849 -0.63866
Oregon -102 0.528 7
12/31 Missouri -380 0.621 33 -1.45522 -0.97022
Oklahoma State +315 0.379 38
12/31 Northwestern +230 0.312 31 -1.22616 -1.16475
Utah -270 0.688 20
12/31 NC State +295 0.333 13 -0.28102 -0.40497
Texas A&M -355 0.667 52
1/1 Iowa +245 0.466 27 -1.27127 -0.76357
Mississippi St -290 0.534 22
1/1 Kentucky +170 0.376 27 -1.02962 -0.97817
Penn State -200 0.624 24
1/1 LSU -275 0.435 40 -0.3415 -0.83241
Central Florida +235 0.565 32
1/1 Washington +190 0.329 23 -0.40196 -0.39899
Ohio State -230 0.671 28
1/1 Texas +425 0.132 28 -1.6942 -2.02495
Georgia -550 0.868 21
1/7 Clemson +180 0.167 44 -1.07329 -1.78976
Alabama -220 0.833 16

Above are our results from each game last week between FBS opponents. To find the Log Loss of the sportsbook pick, we translate the final money line into relative odds to win and then do the calculation.
1 The values used are based on the last available projection.

College Football FBS Season Prediction Results

2018
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
5Dimes 768 564 196 8 0.74 -0.50025
DRatings 768 573 193 2 0.747 -0.5078
Games from 1/7
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
5Dimes 1 0 1 0 0 -1.07329
DRatings 1 0 1 0 0 -1.78976
Last Week
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
5Dimes 6 2 4 0 0.333 -0.96864
DRatings 6 1 5 0 0.167 -1.13131
Last Two Weeks
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
5Dimes 25 12 13 0 0.48 -0.7866
DRatings 25 13 12 0 0.52 -0.78636

The table listed above shows how our projections have done against Sportsbook Consensus. The idea is to test our probabilities of victory for each team against the sportsbooks (we used 5Dimes, but could have used anyone). Wins, losses, and win percentage are self-explanatory. “No pick” occurs when the odds are even for both sides at the sportsbook, or when we project the game at 50% on each side. Attempting to explain Log Loss is a little complicated, but in a nutshell, the lower number is better. For more information in the examination of this creiteria, see: Making Sense of Log Loss.

Donchess Inference Predictor Results – NCAA FBS Football

Last Week (Week 15): Straight Up: 1-0 (100%), Against The Spread: 0-1 (0.0%)
2018-2019 Season: Straight Up: 541-174 (75.7%), Against The Spread: 370-331 (52.8%)
2017-2018 Season: Straight Up: 563-215 (72.4%), Against The Spread: 376-382 (49.6%)
2016-2017 Season: Straight Up: 547-214 (71.9%), Against The Spread: 376-362 (50.9%)
2015-2016 Season: Straight Up: 604-177 (77.3%), Against The Spread: 382-363 (51.2%)
2014-2015 Season: Straight Up: 507-211 (70.6%), Against The Spread: 351-346 (50.4%)
2013-2014 Season: Straight Up: 547-186 (74.6%), Against The Spread: 368-326 (53.0%)
*Historical results can be found at The Prediction Tracker.

The results for The Prediction Tracker may be different than the results shown in our Log Loss. The Prediction Tracker takes the first projections it finds and does not include any updates that we may make to the projection as the week progresses.