NCAA Football Predictions


Welcome to our page on college football computer predictions. Our predictions listed on this page will be updated on the Monday afternoon that precedes the week’s games. This projection system was designed to use past data to predict college football games in the future. The predictions that you will see here do not account for weather and have a slight lag effect for significant injuries. There is always some element of error in the predictions. I encourage you to read my disclaimer page for more information.

While we list our weekly game projections here, you can find our NCAA college football bowl projections at 2018-2019 College Football Bowl Projections. Also, this year and for the first time, we are doing FCS Playoff Projections. This will be updated before the beginning of the season and will be updated much more often as we get closer to bowl season. One can also refer to our FBS ratings and FCS ratings for more information. Both of our college football rating systems are updated weekly on Sunday morning.

The predictions on these college football games are to be used for informational purposes only.

All upcoming college football predictions are listed below. Enjoy the information!

Week 1 FBS College Football Score Predictions

Time Matchup Teams Lines – Updated 1/8 @ 11:58 am Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Points
Game analysis not available yet

BetAnySports.com
Bet College Football at the BetAnySports Sportsbook: Join BetAnySports
See our detailed review of BetAnySports here: BetAnySports Sportsbook Review

FCS College Football Game Predictions

Date Matchup Prediction Teams Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Points
Game analysis not available yet

%ALT_TXT%%
Bet College Football at the Bovada Sportsbook: Join Bovada
See our detailed review of Bovada here: Bovada Sportsbook Review

Recent FBS Game Prediction Results

Date Teams DRatings Odds to Win1 Final Score Sportsbook Log Loss DRatings Log Loss
12/15 North Texas +220 0.293 13 -0.35956 -0.34672
Utah State -260 0.707 52
12/15 Tulane -165 0.623 41 -0.50412 -0.47321
UL Lafayette +145 0.377 24
12/15 Arizona State +185 0.439 20 -0.41 -0.57803
Fresno State -225 0.561 31
12/15 Eastern Michigan +115 0.494 21 -0.59313 -0.68122
Georgia Southern -135 0.506 23
12/15 Middle Tenn St +205 0.348 13 -0.3796 -0.42771
Appalachian St -245 0.652 45
12/18 Northern Illinois -103 0.512 13 -0.66323 -0.71744
UAB -117 0.488 37
12/19 Ohio -130 0.595 27 -0.61112 -0.51919
San Diego State +110 0.405 0
12/20 Marshall -160 0.495 38 -0.51706 -0.7032
South Florida +140 0.505 20
12/21 Florida Intl +240 0.42 35 -1.25427 -0.8675
Toledo -280 0.58 32
12/21 BYU -430 0.61 49 -0.2445 -0.4943
Western Michigan +345 0.39 18
12/22 Wake Forest +105 0.434 37 -0.76029 -0.83471
Memphis -125 0.566 34
12/22 Houston +200 0.507 14 -0.38677 -0.70725
Army -240 0.493 70
12/22 Buffalo -135 0.585 32 -0.80429 -0.87948
Troy +115 0.415 42
12/22 Louisiana Tech -118 0.519 31 -0.65901 -0.65585
Hawaii -102 0.481 14
12/26 Minnesota +190 0.391 34 -1.10566 -0.93905
Georgia Tech -230 0.609 10
12/26 TCU -123 0.564 10 -0.63822 -0.5727
California +103 0.436 7
12/27 Duke +155 0.541 56 -0.96421 -0.61434
Temple -175 0.459 27
12/27 Miami Florida -148 0.466 3 -0.85893 -0.62736
Wisconsin +128 0.534 35
12/27 Vanderbilt -200 0.661 38 -1.02962 -1.08176
Baylor +170 0.339 45
12/28 Auburn -170 0.688 63 -0.49182 -0.37397
Purdue +150 0.312 14
12/28 Syracuse -140 0.503 34 -0.57618 -0.68717
West Virginia +120 0.497 18
12/28 Iowa State +120 0.353 26 -0.57618 -0.43541
Washington State -140 0.647 28
12/29 Arkansas State +105 0.555 13 -0.63023 -0.80968
Nevada -125 0.445 16
12/29 Florida +165 0.296 41 -1.00657 -1.2174
Michigan -190 0.704 15
12/29 South Carolina -175 0.588 0 -0.96421 -0.88673
Virginia +155 0.412 28
12/29 Oklahoma +520 0.094 34 -0.16813 -0.09872
Alabama -740 0.906 45
12/29 Notre Dame +315 0.193 3 -0.26572 -0.21443
Clemson -380 0.807 30
12/31 Virginia Tech +190 0.417 31 -0.40196 -0.53957
Cincinnati -230 0.583 35
12/31 Pittsburgh +153 0.448 13 -0.48473 -0.59421
Stanford -173 0.552 14
12/31 Michigan State -118 0.472 6 -0.72849 -0.63866
Oregon -102 0.528 7
12/31 Missouri -380 0.621 33 -1.45522 -0.97022
Oklahoma State +315 0.379 38
12/31 Northwestern +230 0.312 31 -1.22616 -1.16475
Utah -270 0.688 20
12/31 NC State +295 0.333 13 -0.28102 -0.40497
Texas A&M -355 0.667 52
1/1 Iowa +245 0.466 27 -1.27127 -0.76357
Mississippi St -290 0.534 22
1/1 Kentucky +170 0.376 27 -1.02962 -0.97817
Penn State -200 0.624 24
1/1 LSU -275 0.435 40 -0.3415 -0.83241
Central Florida +235 0.565 32
1/1 Washington +190 0.329 23 -0.40196 -0.39899
Ohio State -230 0.671 28
1/1 Texas +425 0.132 28 -1.6942 -2.02495
Georgia -550 0.868 21
1/7 Clemson +180 0.167 44 -1.07329 -1.78976
Alabama -220 0.833 16

Above are our results from each game last week between FBS opponents. To find the Log Loss of the sportsbook pick, we translate the final money line into relative odds to win and then do the calculation.
1 The values used are based on the last available projection.

College Football FBS Season Prediction Results

2018
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
5Dimes 768 564 196 8 0.74 -0.50025
DRatings 768 573 193 2 0.747 -0.5078
Games from 1/7
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
5Dimes 1 0 1 0 0 -1.07329
DRatings 1 0 1 0 0 -1.78976
Last Week
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
5Dimes 6 2 4 0 0.333 -0.96864
DRatings 6 1 5 0 0.167 -1.13131
Last Two Weeks
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
5Dimes 25 12 13 0 0.48 -0.7866
DRatings 25 13 12 0 0.52 -0.78636

The table listed above shows how our projections have done against 5Dimes. The idea is to test our probabilities of victory for each team against the sportsbooks (we used 5Dimes, but could have used anyone). Wins, losses, and win percentage are self-explanatory. “No pick” occurs when the odds are even for both sides at the sportsbook, or when we project the game at 50% on each side. Attempting to explain Log Loss is a little complicated, but in a nutshell, the lower number is better. For more information in the examination of this creiteria, see: Making Sense of Log Loss.

Donchess Inference Predictor Results – NCAA FBS Football

Last Week (Week 15): Straight Up: 1-0 (100%), Against The Spread: 0-1 (0.0%)
2018-2019 Season: Straight Up: 541-174 (75.7%), Against The Spread: 370-331 (52.8%)
2017-2018 Season: Straight Up: 563-215 (72.4%), Against The Spread: 376-382 (49.6%)
2016-2017 Season: Straight Up: 547-214 (71.9%), Against The Spread: 376-362 (50.9%)
2015-2016 Season: Straight Up: 604-177 (77.3%), Against The Spread: 382-363 (51.2%)
2014-2015 Season: Straight Up: 507-211 (70.6%), Against The Spread: 351-346 (50.4%)
2013-2014 Season: Straight Up: 547-186 (74.6%), Against The Spread: 368-326 (53.0%)
*Historical results can be found at The Prediction Tracker.

The results for The Prediction Tracker may be different than the results shown in our Log Loss. The Prediction Tracker takes the first projections it finds and does not include any updates that we may make to the projection as the week progresses.