NCAA Football Predictions


Welcome to our page on college football computer predictions. Our predictions listed on this page will be updated on the Monday afternoon that precedes the week’s games. This projection system was designed to use past data to predict college football games in the future. The predictions that you will see here do not account for weather and have a slight lag effect for significant injuries. There is always some element of error in the predictions. I encourage you to read my disclaimer page for more information.

While we list our weekly game projections here, you can find our NCAA college football bowl projections at 2018-2019 College Football Bowl Projections. Also, this year and for the first time, we are doing FCS Playoff Projections. This will be updated before the beginning of the season and will be updated much more often as we get closer to bowl season. One can also refer to our FBS ratings and FCS ratings for more information. Both of our college football rating systems are updated weekly on Sunday morning.

The predictions on these college football games are to be used for informational purposes only.

All upcoming college football predictions are listed below. Enjoy the information!

Bowl Game FBS College Football Score Predictions

Time Matchup Teams Lines – Updated 12/9 @ 9:45 am Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Points
12/15 Tulane vs ULL Tulane
-165
-160
-160
62.3%
27.86
52.43
ULL
+145
+140
+150
37.7%
24.56
12/15 North Texas vs Utah St North Texas
+290
+275
+300
29.3%
24.66
56.02
Utah St
-350
-350
-330
70.7%
31.36
12/15 Fresno St vs Arizona St Fresno St
-180
-190
-185
56.1%
29.50
56.70
Arizona St
+160
+165
+170
43.9%
27.20
12/15 Ga Southern vs E Michigan Ga Southern
No Odds
-120
-112
50.6%
26.88
53.56
E Michigan
No Odds
+100
+102
49.4%
26.68
12/15 MTSU vs Appalachian St MTSU
+235
+225
+230
34.8%
25.19
54.48
Appalachian St
-280
-275
-250
65.2%
29.29
12/18 UAB vs N Illinois UAB
-130
-135
-130
48.8%
25.80
52.11
N Illinois
+110
+115
+120
51.2%
26.30
12/19 San Diego St vs Ohio San Diego St
+145
+140
+145
40.5%
23.21
49.62
Ohio
-165
-160
-155
59.5%
26.41
12/20 Marshall at South Florida Marshall
No Odds
-135
-130
49.5%
26.44
53.03
South Florida
No Odds
+115
+120
50.5%
26.58
12/21 Florida Intl vs Toledo Florida Intl
+200
+190
+205
42%
27.33
57.56
Toledo
-240
-230
-225
58%
30.23
12/21 W Michigan vs BYU W Michigan
+395
+350
+390
39%
25.38
54.06
BYU
-470
-500
-440
61%
28.68
12/22 Memphis vs Wake Forest Memphis
-205
-210
-200
56.6%
28.98
55.47
Wake Forest
+175
+175
+185
43.4%
26.48
12/22 Houston vs Army Houston
+140
+140
+140
50.7%
25.96
51.62
Army
-160
-160
-160
49.3%
25.66
12/22 Buffalo vs Troy Buffalo
-150
-145
-135
58.5%
27.58
52.16
Troy
+130
+125
+125
41.5%
24.58
12/22 Louisiana Tech at Hawaii Louisiana Tech
No Odds
+100
+103
51.9%
28.85
56.85
Hawaii
No Odds
-120
-113
48.1%
28.00
12/26 Boston College vs Boise St Boston College
+130
+130
+135
45.1%
24.23
50.46
Boise St
-150
-150
-145
54.9%
26.23
12/26 Minnesota vs Georgia Tech Minnesota
+153
+155
No Odds
39.1%
24.35
52.01
Georgia Tech
-173
-175
No Odds
60.9%
27.65
12/26 California vs TCU California
No Odds
No Odds
-107
43.6%
28.02
58.54
TCU
No Odds
No Odds
-103
56.4%
30.52
12/27 Temple vs Duke Temple
-177
-165
-165
45.9%
23.42
48.54
Duke
+157
+145
+155
54.1%
25.12
12/27 Miami FL vs Wisconsin Miami FL
-197
-200
-185
46.6%
22.88
47.26
Wisconsin
+172
+170
+170
53.4%
24.38
12/27 Baylor vs Vanderbilt Baylor
+150
+155
+160
33.9%
25.45
55.31
Vanderbilt
-170
-175
-170
66.1%
29.85
12/28 Purdue vs Auburn Purdue
+170
+165
No Odds
31.2%
23.88
53.06
Auburn
-195
-190
No Odds
68.8%
29.18
12/28 West Virginia vs Syracuse West Virginia
-120
-120
-120
49.7%
27.76
55.73
Syracuse
+100
+100
+110
50.3%
27.96
12/28 Iowa St vs Washington St Iowa St
+145
+150
+155
35.3%
26.04
55.99
Washington St
-165
-170
-165
64.7%
29.94
12/29 South Carolina vs Virginia South Carolina
-190
-190
-185
58.8%
26.43
49.86
Virginia
+165
+165
+170
41.2%
23.43
12/29 Florida vs Michigan Florida
+255
+255
+265
29.6%
19.81
46.33
Michigan
-305
-310
-295
70.4%
26.51
12/29 Arkansas St vs Nevada Arkansas St
No Odds
-120
-115
55.5%
29.24
56.38
Nevada
No Odds
+100
+105
44.5%
27.14
12/29 Notre Dame vs Clemson Notre Dame
+360
+330
+375
19.3%
22.43
56.67
Clemson
-430
-460
-420
80.7%
34.23
12/29 Oklahoma vs Alabama Oklahoma
+485
+430
+480
9.4%
23.47
69.44
Alabama
-610
-660
-570
90.6%
45.97
12/31 Cincinnati vs Virginia Tech Cincinnati
-205
-210
-200
58.3%
27.17
51.45
Virginia Tech
+175
+175
+185
41.7%
24.27
12/31 Stanford vs Pittsburgh Stanford
-255
-250
No Odds
55.2%
26.92
51.84
Pittsburgh
+215
+210
No Odds
44.8%
24.92
12/31 Michigan St vs Oregon Michigan St
+125
+125
+138
47.2%
27.48
56.17
Oregon
-145
-145
-148
52.8%
28.68
12/31 Missouri vs Oklahoma St Missouri
-305
-290
-280
62.1%
31.12
58.94
Oklahoma St
+255
+240
+255
37.9%
27.82
12/31 Northwestern vs Utah Northwestern
+230
+220
+240
31.2%
21.28
47.86
Utah
-275
-270
-260
68.8%
26.58
12/31 NC State vs Texas A&M NC State
+180
+175
+185
33.3%
25.09
54.78
Texas A&M
-210
-210
-200
66.7%
29.69
1/1 Mississippi St vs Iowa Mississippi St
-255
-270
-265
53.4%
25.12
48.84
Iowa
+215
+220
+245
46.6%
23.72
1/1 LSU vs UCF LSU
-305
-320
-290
43.5%
23.46
49.43
UCF
+255
+260
+260
56.5%
25.96
1/1 Kentucky vs Penn St Kentucky
+210
+200
+215
37.6%
23.55
50.50
Penn St
-250
-240
-235
62.4%
26.95
1/1 Washington vs Ohio St Washington
+200
+200
+220
32.9%
25.33
55.47
Ohio St
-240
-240
-240
67.1%
30.13
1/1 Texas vs Georgia Texas
+385
+345
+380
13.2%
19.44
55.39
Georgia
-460
-490
-430
86.8%
35.94

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FCS College Football Game Predictions

Date Matchup Prediction Teams Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Points
12/14 S Dakota St at N Dakota St N Dakota St wins by 7 S Dakota St
28.2%
22.57
51.99
N Dakota St
71.8%
29.41
12/15 Maine at E Washington E Washington wins by 10 Maine
22.4%
23.79
56.73
E Washington
77.6%
32.93
12/15 NC A&T vs Alcorn St NC A&T wins by 4 NC A&T
63.9%
27.62
51.64
Alcorn St
36.1%
24.02

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Recent FBS Game Prediction Results

Date Teams DRatings Odds to Win1 Final Score Sportsbook Log Loss DRatings Log Loss
12/8 Navy +270 0.361 10 -0.30171 -0.44785
Army -330 0.639 17

Above are our results from each game last week between FBS opponents. To find the Log Loss of the sportsbook pick, we translate the final money line into relative odds to win and then do the calculation.
1 The values used are based on the last available projection.

College Football FBS Season Prediction Results

2018
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
5Dimes 729 541 180 8 0.748 -0.48886
DRatings 729 552 175 2 0.759 -0.49581
Games from 12/8
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
5Dimes 1 1 0 0 1 -0.30171
DRatings 1 1 0 0 1 -0.44785
Last Week
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
5Dimes 1 1 0 0 1 -0.30171
DRatings 1 1 0 0 1 -0.44785
Last Two Weeks
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
5Dimes 15 12 3 0 0.8 -0.38079
DRatings 15 11 4 0 0.733 -0.44971

The table listed above shows how our projections have done against 5Dimes. The idea is to test our probabilities of victory for each team against the sportsbooks (we used 5Dimes, but could have used anyone). Wins, losses, and win percentage are self-explanatory. “No pick” occurs when the odds are even for both sides at the sportsbook, or when we project the game at 50% on each side. Attempting to explain Log Loss is a little complicated, but in a nutshell, the lower number is better. For more information in the examination of this creiteria, see: Making Sense of Log Loss.

Donchess Inference Predictor Results – NCAA FBS Football

Last Week (Week 14): Straight Up: 1-0 (100%), Against The Spread: 0-1 (0.0%)
2018-2019 Season: Straight Up: 541-174 (75.7%), Against The Spread: 370-331 (52.8%)
2017-2018 Season: Straight Up: 563-215 (72.4%), Against The Spread: 376-382 (49.6%)
2016-2017 Season: Straight Up: 547-214 (71.9%), Against The Spread: 376-362 (50.9%)
2015-2016 Season: Straight Up: 604-177 (77.3%), Against The Spread: 382-363 (51.2%)
2014-2015 Season: Straight Up: 507-211 (70.6%), Against The Spread: 351-346 (50.4%)
2013-2014 Season: Straight Up: 547-186 (74.6%), Against The Spread: 368-326 (53.0%)
*Historical results can be found at The Prediction Tracker.

The results for The Prediction Tracker may be different than the results shown in our Log Loss. The Prediction Tracker takes the first projections it finds and does not include any updates that we may make to the projection as the week progresses.