NCAA Football Predictions


Welcome to our page on college football computer predictions. Our predictions listed on this page will be updated on the Monday afternoon that precedes the week’s games. This projection system was designed to use past data to predict college football games in the future. The predictions that you will see here do not account for weather and have a slight lag effect for significant injuries. There is always some element of error in the predictions. I encourage you to read my disclaimer page for more information.

While we list our weekly game projections here, you can find our NCAA college football bowl projections at 2018-2019 College Football Bowl Projections. Also, this year and for the first time, we are doing FCS Playoff Projections. This will be updated before the beginning of the season and will be updated much more often as we get closer to bowl season. One can also refer to our FBS ratings and FCS ratings for more information. Both of our college football rating systems are updated weekly on Sunday morning.

The predictions on these college football games are to be used for informational purposes only.

All upcoming college football predictions are listed below. Enjoy the information!

Week 8 FBS College Football Score Predictions

Time Matchup Teams Lines – Updated 10/15 @ 8:52 am Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Points
10/18 Stanford at Arizona St Stanford
No Odds
No Odds
-130
55.3%
28.69
55.19
Arizona St
No Odds
No Odds
+110
44.7%
26.50
10/18 Georgia St at Arkansas St Georgia St
No Odds
No Odds
+425
21.7%
24.02
57.75
Arkansas St
No Odds
No Odds
-550
78.3%
33.72
10/19 Air Force at UNLV Air Force
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
66.8%
31.75
58.82
UNLV
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
33.2%
27.06
10/19 Colorado St at Boise St Colorado St
No Odds
No Odds
+1300
3.7%
19.77
64.24
Boise St
No Odds
No Odds
-2150
96.3%
44.47
10/20 Akron at Kent Akron
No Odds
No Odds
-185
69.7%
26.52
46.46
Kent
No Odds
No Odds
+160
30.3%
19.93
10/20 ULL at Appalachian St ULL
No Odds
No Odds
+1400
2.5%
17.87
61.45
Appalachian St
No Odds
No Odds
-2500
97.5%
43.57
10/20 Arizona at UCLA Arizona
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
44.4%
29.14
60.38
UCLA
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
55.6%
31.24
10/20 Miami OH at Army Miami OH
No Odds
No Odds
+255
21%
20.14
50.70
Army
No Odds
No Odds
-310
79%
30.55
10/20 Auburn at Mississippi Auburn
No Odds
No Odds
-167
58%
28.91
54.82
Mississippi
No Odds
No Odds
+147
42%
25.91
10/20 E Michigan at Ball St E Michigan
No Odds
No Odds
-190
69.5%
31.09
56.48
Ball St
No Odds
No Odds
+165
30.5%
25.39
10/20 Bowling Green at Ohio Bowling Green
No Odds
No Odds
+600
10.5%
21.59
62.38
Ohio
No Odds
No Odds
-900
89.5%
40.79
10/20 Buffalo at Toledo Buffalo
No Odds
No Odds
+110
52.2%
28.67
56.34
Toledo
No Odds
No Odds
-130
47.8%
27.67
10/20 California at Oregon St California
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
69.6%
33.98
62.07
Oregon St
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
30.4%
28.09
10/20 Charlotte at MTSU Charlotte
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
14%
22.81
60.62
MTSU
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
86%
37.81
10/20 Cincinnati at Temple Cincinnati
No Odds
No Odds
+152
32.6%
23.02
50.75
Temple
No Odds
No Odds
-172
67.4%
27.72
10/20 NC State at Clemson NC State
No Odds
No Odds
+625
16.4%
21.42
56.45
Clemson
No Odds
No Odds
-950
83.6%
35.02
10/20 W Michigan at C Michigan W Michigan
No Odds
No Odds
-210
65.9%
29.60
54.82
C Michigan
No Odds
No Odds
+175
34.1%
25.21
10/20 Coastal Car at Massachusetts Coastal Car
No Odds
No Odds
+152
43.5%
27.30
57.01
Massachusetts
No Odds
No Odds
-172
56.5%
29.70
10/20 Colorado at Washington Colorado
No Odds
No Odds
+550
17.9%
21.48
55.57
Washington
No Odds
No Odds
-800
82.1%
34.09
10/20 Connecticut at South Florida Connecticut
No Odds
No Odds
+6500
2.2%
16.02
58.74
South Florida
No Odds
No Odds
-16500
97.8%
42.72
10/20 Virginia at Duke Virginia
No Odds
No Odds
+260
22.3%
21.02
51.24
Duke
No Odds
No Odds
-320
77.7%
30.22
10/20 UCF at East Carolina UCF
No Odds
No Odds
-1450
89.8%
42.61
62.92
East Carolina
No Odds
No Odds
+950
10.2%
20.31
10/20 FL Atlantic at Marshall FL Atlantic
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
65.9%
30.38
56.36
Marshall
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
34.1%
25.98
10/20 Rice at Florida Intl Rice
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
3.7%
17.92
60.55
Florida Intl
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
96.3%
42.62
10/20 Fresno St at New Mexico Fresno St
No Odds
No Odds
-600
89.4%
40.95
62.11
New Mexico
No Odds
No Odds
+450
10.6%
21.16
10/20 Ga Southern at New Mexico St Ga Southern
No Odds
No Odds
-500
77%
34.17
59.56
New Mexico St
No Odds
No Odds
+400
23%
25.38
10/20 Nevada at Hawaii Nevada
No Odds
No Odds
+152
38.5%
25.95
55.10
Hawaii
No Odds
No Odds
-172
61.5%
29.15
10/20 Houston at Navy Houston
No Odds
No Odds
-500
73.6%
32.60
57.81
Navy
No Odds
No Odds
+400
26.4%
25.20
10/20 Illinois at Wisconsin Illinois
No Odds
No Odds
+2000
2.3%
14.40
55.00
Wisconsin
No Odds
No Odds
-4000
97.7%
40.60
10/20 Penn St at Indiana Penn St
No Odds
No Odds
-550
83.3%
35.67
57.05
Indiana
No Odds
No Odds
+425
16.7%
21.37
10/20 Maryland at Iowa Maryland
No Odds
No Odds
+375
22%
21.65
52.82
Iowa
No Odds
No Odds
-470
78%
31.16
10/20 Kansas at Texas Tech Kansas
No Odds
No Odds
+900
10.8%
26.16
70.02
Texas Tech
No Odds
No Odds
-1375
89.2%
43.86
10/20 Vanderbilt at Kentucky Vanderbilt
No Odds
No Odds
+365
21.2%
20.51
51.23
Kentucky
No Odds
No Odds
-460
78.8%
30.72
10/20 UTEP at Louisiana Tech UTEP
No Odds
No Odds
+1450
2.2%
18.11
62.94
Louisiana Tech
No Odds
No Odds
-2750
97.8%
44.82
10/20 Mississippi St at LSU Mississippi St
No Odds
No Odds
+225
30.3%
22.48
51.38
LSU
No Odds
No Odds
-265
69.7%
28.89
10/20 Memphis at Missouri Memphis
No Odds
No Odds
+275
29.3%
25.62
57.84
Missouri
No Odds
No Odds
-335
70.7%
32.22
10/20 Michigan at Michigan St Michigan
No Odds
No Odds
-280
58.4%
25.11
47.12
Michigan St
No Odds
No Odds
+240
41.6%
22.01
10/20 Minnesota at Nebraska Minnesota
No Odds
No Odds
+160
53.1%
26.16
50.92
Nebraska
No Odds
No Odds
-185
46.9%
24.76
10/20 North Carolina at Syracuse North Carolina
No Odds
No Odds
+365
12.1%
22.04
60.79
Syracuse
No Odds
No Odds
-460
87.9%
38.74
10/20 North Texas at UAB North Texas
No Odds
No Odds
-118
52.4%
28.27
55.44
UAB
No Odds
No Odds
-102
47.6%
27.17
10/20 Ohio St at Purdue Ohio St
No Odds
No Odds
-525
89.5%
41.08
61.86
Purdue
No Odds
No Odds
+415
10.5%
20.78
10/20 Old Dominion at WKU Old Dominion
No Odds
No Odds
+175
52.4%
29.46
57.83
WKU
No Odds
No Odds
-210
47.6%
28.37
10/20 Oregon at Washington St Oregon
No Odds
No Odds
-125
33.8%
29.84
63.99
Washington St
No Odds
No Odds
+105
66.2%
34.14
10/20 San Jose St at San Diego St San Jose St
No Odds
No Odds
+2750
2.3%
15.97
58.14
San Diego St
No Odds
No Odds
-6000
97.7%
42.17
10/20 SMU at Tulane SMU
No Odds
No Odds
+230
30.4%
25.10
55.91
Tulane
No Odds
No Odds
-270
69.6%
30.80
10/20 UT San Antonio at Southern Miss UT San Antonio
No Odds
No Odds
+650
26.4%
22.38
51.96
Southern Miss
No Odds
No Odds
-1000
73.6%
29.58
10/20 USC at Utah USC
No Odds
No Odds
+225
30.4%
24.67
55.05
Utah
No Odds
No Odds
-265
69.6%
30.37
10/20 Utah St at Wyoming Utah St
No Odds
No Odds
-650
79%
32.42
53.54
Wyoming
No Odds
No Odds
+475
21%
21.12
10/20 Tulsa at Arkansas Tulsa
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
44.1%
28.69
59.60
Arkansas
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
55.9%
30.90
10/20 Wake Forest at Florida St Wake Forest
No Odds
No Odds
+315
34.4%
22.97
50.04
Florida St
No Odds
No Odds
-380
65.6%
27.07
10/20 Texas St at ULM Texas St
No Odds
No Odds
+335
20.3%
23.93
58.86
ULM
No Odds
No Odds
-420
79.7%
34.93
10/20 Northwestern at Rutgers Northwestern
No Odds
No Odds
-1375
89.5%
36.99
53.18
Rutgers
No Odds
No Odds
+900
10.5%
16.19
10/20 Oklahoma at TCU Oklahoma
No Odds
No Odds
-300
75.1%
35.49
63.19
TCU
No Odds
No Odds
+250
24.9%
27.69
10/20 Alabama at Tennessee Alabama
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
90%
41.72
60.64
Tennessee
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
10%
18.92

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Week 8 FCS College Football Game Predictions

Date Matchup Prediction Teams Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Points
10/19 Yale at Penn Yale wins by 2 Yale
54.7%
26.93
51.87
Penn
45.3%
24.93
10/20 Abilene Chr at SE Louisiana SE Louisiana wins by 3 Abilene Chr
44.1%
26.62
55.46
SE Louisiana
55.9%
28.83
10/20 Towson at Albany NY Towson wins by 9 Towson
77%
27.18
45.57
Albany NY
23%
18.38
10/20 Grambling at Alcorn St Alcorn St wins by 4 Grambling
36.5%
27.36
58.12
Alcorn St
63.5%
30.76
10/20 Cornell at Brown Cornell wins by 5 Cornell
67.4%
25.89
46.89
Brown
32.6%
21.00
10/20 Bryant at Fordham Fordham wins by 4 Bryant
40.6%
26.25
55.52
Fordham
59.4%
29.26
10/20 Lafayette at Bucknell Bucknell wins by 5 Lafayette
33.5%
19.11
42.63
Bucknell
66.5%
23.52
10/20 San Diego at Butler San Diego wins by 9 San Diego
77%
30.78
52.77
Butler
23%
21.98
10/20 UC Davis at Cal Poly UC Davis wins by 7 UC Davis
69.6%
33.76
61.23
Cal Poly
30.4%
27.47
10/20 Campbell at Monmouth NJ Monmouth NJ wins by 3 Campbell
43.1%
24.14
50.78
Monmouth NJ
56.9%
26.64
10/20 Sacred Heart at Central Conn Central Conn wins by 2 Sacred Heart
47.4%
23.45
47.91
Central Conn
52.6%
24.45
10/20 Presbyterian at Charleston So Charleston So wins by 10 Presbyterian
22.5%
17.52
44.05
Charleston So
77.5%
26.52
10/20 North Dakota at CS Sacramento North Dakota wins by 3 North Dakota
57.3%
29.17
55.55
CS Sacramento
42.7%
26.37
10/20 Davidson at Marist Marist wins by 6 Davidson
30.5%
22.69
50.89
Marist
69.5%
28.19
10/20 Drake at Dayton Dayton wins by 3 Drake
44.7%
22.75
47.51
Dayton
55.3%
24.76
10/20 Delaware St at S Carolina St S Carolina St wins by 15 Delaware St
15.3%
3.800
21.70
S Carolina St
84.7%
17.90
10/20 Duquesne at St Francis PA St Francis PA wins by 4 Duquesne
38.5%
21.99
47.19
St Francis PA
61.5%
25.19
10/20 Richmond at Elon Elon wins by 10 Richmond
22.5%
20.39
49.78
Elon
77.5%
29.39
10/20 Samford at Furman Furman wins by 3 Samford
42.4%
24.75
52.20
Furman
57.6%
27.45
10/20 Princeton at Harvard Princeton wins by 8 Princeton
75.1%
29.63
51.46
Harvard
24.9%
21.83
10/20 SF Austin at Houston Bap SF Austin wins by 3 SF Austin
56.9%
29.98
57.26
Houston Bap
43.1%
27.28
10/20 Illinois St at N Dakota St N Dakota St wins by 11 Illinois St
21.4%
20.03
50.06
N Dakota St
78.6%
30.03
10/20 McNeese St at Incarnate Word McNeese St wins by 2 McNeese St
52.6%
27.09
52.99
Incarnate Word
47.4%
25.90
10/20 Indiana St at S Illinois S Illinois wins by 4 Indiana St
40.6%
26.32
55.65
S Illinois
59.4%
29.32
10/20 Jacksonville at Stetson Stetson wins by 7 Jacksonville
28.2%
23.83
54.46
Stetson
71.8%
30.63
10/20 Jacksonville St at SE Missouri St Jacksonville St wins by 6 Jacksonville St
68.3%
29.30
53.41
SE Missouri St
31.7%
24.11
10/20 Sam Houston St at Lamar Sam Houston St wins by 11 Sam Houston St
78.4%
38.66
67.02
Lamar
21.6%
28.36
10/20 W Carolina at Mercer Mercer wins by 8 W Carolina
25.9%
24.31
55.94
Mercer
74.1%
31.62
10/20 Montana St at Weber St Weber St wins by 9 Montana St
23%
23.65
55.91
Weber St
77%
32.25
10/20 NC Central at Norfolk St Norfolk St wins by 6 NC Central
30.5%
18.80
43.01
Norfolk St
69.5%
24.20
10/20 Northern Arizona at N Colorado Northern Arizona wins by 6 Northern Arizona
69.5%
32.39
58.98
N Colorado
30.5%
26.59
10/20 S Dakota St at Northern Iowa S Dakota St wins by 1 S Dakota St
51.7%
25.49
50.18
Northern Iowa
48.3%
24.69
10/20 South Dakota at Youngstown St South Dakota wins by 4 South Dakota
59.4%
27.18
51.17
Youngstown St
40.6%
23.98
10/20 Southern Utah at Idaho Idaho wins by 4 Southern Utah
36.5%
27.33
58.06
Idaho
63.5%
30.73
10/20 Citadel at VMI Citadel wins by 8 Citadel
73.2%
30.02
52.74
VMI
26.8%
22.72
10/20 Howard at Morgan St Howard wins by 1 Howard
51.9%
25.54
50.19
Morgan St
48.1%
24.65
10/20 NC A&T at Bethune-Cookman NC A&T wins by 5 NC A&T
65.9%
26.63
48.86
Bethune-Cookman
34.1%
22.23
10/20 Dartmouth at Columbia Dartmouth wins by 10 Dartmouth
78.1%
26.90
44.02
Columbia
21.9%
17.11
10/20 W Illinois at Missouri St Missouri St wins by 4 W Illinois
37.5%
25.39
54.08
Missouri St
62.5%
28.69
10/20 Northwestern LA at Cent Arkansas Cent Arkansas wins by 12 Northwestern LA
19.2%
24.51
60.73
Cent Arkansas
80.8%
36.21
10/20 Ark Pine Bluff at MS Valley St MS Valley St wins by 1 Ark Pine Bluff
49.5%
27.67
55.45
MS Valley St
50.5%
27.78
10/20 TN Martin at E Illinois TN Martin wins by 3 TN Martin
57.3%
28.15
53.50
E Illinois
42.7%
25.35
10/20 Murray St at E Kentucky E Kentucky wins by 4 Murray St
38.5%
26.68
56.57
E Kentucky
61.5%
29.88
10/20 Lehigh at Georgetown Georgetown wins by 6 Lehigh
31.4%
22.92
50.95
Georgetown
68.6%
28.02
10/20 North Alabama at Jackson St North Alabama wins by 6 North Alabama
69.2%
26.80
48.10
Jackson St
30.8%
21.30
10/20 Valparaiso at Morehead St Morehead St wins by 1 Valparaiso
47.6%
29.10
59.11
Morehead St
52.4%
30.00
10/20 Delaware at New Hampshire Delaware wins by 6 Delaware
68.6%
25.06
44.82
New Hampshire
31.4%
19.76
10/20 Rhode Island at Stony Brook Stony Brook wins by 5 Rhode Island
33.5%
19.42
43.24
Stony Brook
66.5%
23.82
10/20 Tennessee Tech at Tennessee St Tennessee St wins by 15 Tennessee Tech
15.3%
20.42
55.15
Tennessee St
84.7%
34.72
10/20 Maine at William & Mary Maine wins by 6 Maine
68.6%
23.86
42.42
William & Mary
31.4%
18.56
10/20 ETSU at Wofford Wofford wins by 7 ETSU
29.3%
20.26
47.13
Wofford
70.7%
26.87
10/20 TX Southern vs Southern Univ Southern Univ wins by 11 TX Southern
20.5%
23.29
57.59
Southern Univ
79.5%
34.29
10/13 E Kentucky at TN Martin TN Martin wins by 3 E Kentucky
43.1%
24.80
52.10
TN Martin
56.9%
27.30
10/13 Grambling at TX Southern Grambling wins by 9 Grambling
77%
32.56
56.32
TX Southern
23%
23.76
10/13 Butler at Valparaiso Valparaiso wins by 3 Butler
43.8%
25.20
52.70
Valparaiso
56.2%
27.50

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Recent FBS Game Prediction Results

Date Teams DRatings Odds to Win1 Final Score Sportsbook Log Loss DRatings Log Loss
10/9 Appalachian St -380 0.751 35 -0.26572 -0.28635
Arkansas State +315 0.249 9
10/11 Texas Tech +275 0.229 17 -1.35788 -1.47403
TCU -335 0.771 14
10/11 Georgia Southern -850 0.894 15 -0.15322 -0.11205
Texas State +575 0.106 13
10/12 South Florida -355 0.803 25 -0.28102 -0.2194
Tulsa +295 0.197 24
10/12 Arizona +435 0.161 10 -0.19861 -0.17554
Utah -570 0.839 42
10/12 Air Force +315 0.224 17 -0.26572 -0.2536
San Diego State -380 0.776 21
10/13 Louisville +345 0.153 20 -0.2445 -0.16605
Boston College -430 0.847 38
10/13 Miami Florida -280 0.751 13 -1.25427 -1.3903
Virginia +240 0.249 16
10/13 Toledo -123 0.49 26 -0.75127 -0.67334
Eastern Michigan +103 0.51 28
10/13 Texas A&M -130 0.347 26 -0.61112 -1.05843
South Carolina +110 0.653 23
10/13 UL Monroe +225 0.304 45 -1.21182 -1.19073
Coastal Carolina -265 0.696 20
10/13 Purdue -360 0.763 46 -0.27721 -0.2705
Illinois +300 0.237 7
10/13 Ball State +120 0.329 24 -0.82564 -1.1117
Central Michigan -140 0.671 23
10/13 Duke -102 0.498 28 -0.72849 -0.69716
Georgia Tech -118 0.502 14
10/13 Rutgers +1500 0.047 7 -0.06258 -0.04814
Maryland -3000 0.953 34
10/13 Virginia Tech -240 0.784 22 -0.38677 -0.24335
North Carolina +200 0.216 19
10/13 Western Kentucky -360 0.647 14 -1.41838 -1.04129
Charlotte U +300 0.353 40
10/13 Houston -800 0.796 42 -0.15963 -0.22816
East Carolina +550 0.204 20
10/13 Akron +350 0.212 6 -0.24116 -0.23826
Buffalo -440 0.788 24
10/13 Marshall -175 0.544 42 -0.48011 -0.60881
Old Dominion +155 0.456 20
10/13 Middle Tenn St -102 0.519 21 -0.65901 -0.73189
Florida Intl -118 0.481 24
10/13 Kent +330 0.197 6 -0.25408 -0.2194
Miami Ohio -410 0.803 31
10/13 UNLV +2500 0.121 28 -0.03848 -0.12897
Utah State -5000 0.879 59
10/13 New Mexico -125 0.486 18 -0.76029 -0.66553
Colorado State +105 0.514 20
10/13 Troy -400 0.825 16 -1.4816 -1.74297
Liberty +325 0.175 22
10/13 Pittsburgh +950 0.121 14 -0.09695 -0.12897
Notre Dame -1450 0.879 19
10/13 Colorado +230 0.308 20 -0.34732 -0.36817
USC -270 0.692 31
10/13 Army -900 0.896 52 -0.14732 -0.10981
San Jose State +600 0.104 3
10/13 Washington -165 0.781 27 -0.92643 -1.51868
Oregon +145 0.219 30
10/13 Ohio +175 0.427 21 -0.4297 -0.55687
Northern Illinois -210 0.573 24
10/13 Louisiana Tech -470 0.776 31 -0.22739 -0.2536
UTSA +375 0.224 3
10/13 Western Michigan -600 0.833 42 -0.19237 -0.18272
Bowling Green +450 0.167 35
10/13 Mississippi -240 0.79 37 -0.38677 -0.23572
Arkansas +200 0.21 33
10/13 Wisconsin +320 0.347 13 -0.26171 -0.42618
Michigan -390 0.653 38
10/13 Minnesota +4000 0.021 14 -0.02434 -0.02122
Ohio State -10000 0.979 30
10/13 Temple -235 0.562 24 -0.39422 -0.57625
Navy +195 0.438 17
10/13 West Virginia -210 0.55 14 -1.05184 -0.79851
Iowa State +175 0.45 30
10/13 Southern Miss +235 0.225 7 -0.3415 -0.25489
North Texas -275 0.775 30
10/13 Nebraska +140 0.224 31 -0.51706 -0.2536
Northwestern -160 0.776 34
10/13 Iowa -167 0.68 42 -0.49913 -0.38566
Indiana +147 0.32 16
10/13 Central Florida -190 0.784 31 -0.45487 -0.24335
Memphis +165 0.216 30
10/13 Tennessee +525 0.037 30 -1.87406 -3.29684
Auburn -750 0.963 24
10/13 Baylor +425 0.14 17 -0.20303 -0.15082
Texas -550 0.86 23
10/13 Missouri +2250 0.037 10 -0.04258 -0.0377
Alabama -4500 0.963 39
10/13 Florida -335 0.77 37 -0.29734 -0.26136
Vanderbilt +275 0.23 27
10/13 Oklahoma State -310 0.696 12 -1.30404 -1.19073
Kansas State +255 0.304 31
10/13 UAB -850 0.894 42 -0.15322 -0.11205
Rice +575 0.106 0
10/13 Georgia -265 0.781 16 -1.21182 -1.51868
LSU +225 0.219 36
10/13 New Mexico State +240 0.305 38 -0.33587 -0.36384
UL Lafayette -280 0.695 66
10/13 Michigan State +400 0.182 21 -1.64223 -1.70375
Penn State -500 0.818 17
10/13 Hawaii +290 0.247 23 -0.28493 -0.28369
BYU -350 0.753 49
10/13 UCLA +210 0.308 37 -1.16761 -1.17766
California -250 0.692 7
10/13 Wyoming +650 0.107 3 -0.13686 -0.11317
Fresno State -1000 0.893 27
10/13 Boise State -550 0.895 31 -0.20303 -0.11093
Nevada +425 0.105 27

Above are our results from each game last week between FBS opponents. To find the Log Loss of the sportsbook pick, we translate the final money line into relative odds to win and then do the calculation.
1 The values used are based on the last available projection.

College Football FBS Season Prediction Results

2018
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
5Dimes 361 264 95 2 0.734 -0.49887
DRatings 361 272 88 1 0.755 -0.50791
Games from 10/14
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
5Dimes 48 33 15 0 0.688 -0.56254
DRatings 48 33 15 0 0.688 -0.60605
Last Week
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
5Dimes 54 38 16 0 0.704 -0.54674
DRatings 54 38 16 0 0.704 -0.5854
Last Two Weeks
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
5Dimes 109 75 33 1 0.693 -0.52473
DRatings 109 77 31 1 0.711 -0.5575

The table listed above shows how our projections have done against 5Dimes. The idea is to test our probabilities of victory for each team against the sportsbooks (we used 5Dimes, but could have used anyone). Wins, losses, and win percentage are self-explanatory. “No pick” occurs when the odds are even for both sides at the sportsbook, or when we project the game at 50% on each side. Attempting to explain Log Loss is a little complicated, but in a nutshell, the lower number is better. For more information in the examination of this creiteria, see: Making Sense of Log Loss.

Donchess Inference Predictor Results – NCAA FBS Football

Last Week (Week 7): Straight Up: 38-16 (70.4%), Against The Spread: 22-30 (42.3%)
2018-2019 Season: Straight Up: 234-73 (76.2%), Against The Spread: 150-151 (51.7%)
2017-2018 Season: Straight Up: 563-215 (72.4%), Against The Spread: 376-382 (49.6%)
2016-2017 Season: Straight Up: 547-214 (71.9%), Against The Spread: 376-362 (50.9%)
2015-2016 Season: Straight Up: 604-177 (77.3%), Against The Spread: 382-363 (51.2%)
2014-2015 Season: Straight Up: 507-211 (70.6%), Against The Spread: 351-346 (50.4%)
2013-2014 Season: Straight Up: 547-186 (74.6%), Against The Spread: 368-326 (53.0%)
*Historical results can be found at The Prediction Tracker.

The results for The Prediction Tracker may be different than the results shown in our Log Loss. The Prediction Tracker takes the first projections it finds and does not include any updates that we may make to the projection as the week progresses.