While we list our weekly game projections here, you can find our NCAA college football bowl projections at 2018-2019 College Football Bowl Projections. Also, this year and for the first time, we are doing FCS Playoff Projections. This will be updated before the beginning of the season and will be updated much more often as we get closer to bowl season. One can also refer to our FBS ratings and FCS ratings for more information. Both of our college football rating systems are updated weekly on Sunday morning.
The predictions on these college football games are to be used for informational purposes only.
All upcoming college football predictions are listed below. Enjoy the information!
Week 1 FBS College Football Score Predictions
| Time | Matchup | Teams | Lines – Updated 4/17 @ 10:46 am | Odds to Win | Score Prediction | Total Points | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Game analysis not available yet | ||||||||
FCS College Football Game Predictions
| Date | Matchup | Prediction | Teams | Odds to Win | Score Prediction | Total Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game analysis not available yet | ||||||
Recent FBS Game Prediction Results
| Date | Teams | SB Consensus | DRatings Odds to Win1 | Final Score | Sportsbook Log Loss | DRatings Log Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/15 | North Texas | +220 | 0.293 | 13 | -0.35956 | -0.34672 |
| Utah State | -260 | 0.707 | 52 | |||
| 12/15 | Tulane | -165 | 0.623 | 41 | -0.50412 | -0.47321 |
| UL Lafayette | +145 | 0.377 | 24 | |||
| 12/15 | Arizona State | +185 | 0.439 | 20 | -0.41 | -0.57803 |
| Fresno State | -225 | 0.561 | 31 | |||
| 12/15 | Eastern Michigan | +115 | 0.494 | 21 | -0.59313 | -0.68122 |
| Georgia Southern | -135 | 0.506 | 23 | |||
| 12/15 | Middle Tenn St | +205 | 0.348 | 13 | -0.3796 | -0.42771 |
| Appalachian St | -245 | 0.652 | 45 | |||
| 12/18 | Northern Illinois | -103 | 0.512 | 13 | -0.66323 | -0.71744 |
| UAB | -117 | 0.488 | 37 | |||
| 12/19 | Ohio | -130 | 0.595 | 27 | -0.61112 | -0.51919 |
| San Diego State | +110 | 0.405 | 0 | |||
| 12/20 | Marshall | -160 | 0.495 | 38 | -0.51706 | -0.7032 |
| South Florida | +140 | 0.505 | 20 | |||
| 12/21 | Florida Intl | +240 | 0.42 | 35 | -1.25427 | -0.8675 |
| Toledo | -280 | 0.58 | 32 | |||
| 12/21 | BYU | -430 | 0.61 | 49 | -0.2445 | -0.4943 |
| Western Michigan | +345 | 0.39 | 18 | |||
| 12/22 | Wake Forest | +105 | 0.434 | 37 | -0.76029 | -0.83471 |
| Memphis | -125 | 0.566 | 34 | |||
| 12/22 | Houston | +200 | 0.507 | 14 | -0.38677 | -0.70725 |
| Army | -240 | 0.493 | 70 | |||
| 12/22 | Buffalo | -135 | 0.585 | 32 | -0.80429 | -0.87948 |
| Troy | +115 | 0.415 | 42 | |||
| 12/22 | Louisiana Tech | -118 | 0.519 | 31 | -0.65901 | -0.65585 |
| Hawaii | -102 | 0.481 | 14 | |||
| 12/26 | Minnesota | +190 | 0.391 | 34 | -1.10566 | -0.93905 |
| Georgia Tech | -230 | 0.609 | 10 | |||
| 12/26 | TCU | -123 | 0.564 | 10 | -0.63822 | -0.5727 |
| California | +103 | 0.436 | 7 | |||
| 12/27 | Duke | +155 | 0.541 | 56 | -0.96421 | -0.61434 |
| Temple | -175 | 0.459 | 27 | |||
| 12/27 | Miami Florida | -148 | 0.466 | 3 | -0.85893 | -0.62736 |
| Wisconsin | +128 | 0.534 | 35 | |||
| 12/27 | Vanderbilt | -200 | 0.661 | 38 | -1.02962 | -1.08176 |
| Baylor | +170 | 0.339 | 45 | |||
| 12/28 | Auburn | -170 | 0.688 | 63 | -0.49182 | -0.37397 |
| Purdue | +150 | 0.312 | 14 | |||
| 12/28 | Syracuse | -140 | 0.503 | 34 | -0.57618 | -0.68717 |
| West Virginia | +120 | 0.497 | 18 | |||
| 12/28 | Iowa State | +120 | 0.353 | 26 | -0.57618 | -0.43541 |
| Washington State | -140 | 0.647 | 28 | |||
| 12/29 | Arkansas State | +105 | 0.555 | 13 | -0.63023 | -0.80968 |
| Nevada | -125 | 0.445 | 16 | |||
| 12/29 | Florida | +165 | 0.296 | 41 | -1.00657 | -1.2174 |
| Michigan | -190 | 0.704 | 15 | |||
| 12/29 | South Carolina | -175 | 0.588 | 0 | -0.96421 | -0.88673 |
| Virginia | +155 | 0.412 | 28 | |||
| 12/29 | Oklahoma | +520 | 0.094 | 34 | -0.16813 | -0.09872 |
| Alabama | -740 | 0.906 | 45 | |||
| 12/29 | Notre Dame | +315 | 0.193 | 3 | -0.26572 | -0.21443 |
| Clemson | -380 | 0.807 | 30 | |||
| 12/31 | Virginia Tech | +190 | 0.417 | 31 | -0.40196 | -0.53957 |
| Cincinnati | -230 | 0.583 | 35 | |||
| 12/31 | Pittsburgh | +153 | 0.448 | 13 | -0.48473 | -0.59421 |
| Stanford | -173 | 0.552 | 14 | |||
| 12/31 | Michigan State | -118 | 0.472 | 6 | -0.72849 | -0.63866 |
| Oregon | -102 | 0.528 | 7 | |||
| 12/31 | Missouri | -380 | 0.621 | 33 | -1.45522 | -0.97022 |
| Oklahoma State | +315 | 0.379 | 38 | |||
| 12/31 | Northwestern | +230 | 0.312 | 31 | -1.22616 | -1.16475 |
| Utah | -270 | 0.688 | 20 | |||
| 12/31 | NC State | +295 | 0.333 | 13 | -0.28102 | -0.40497 |
| Texas A&M | -355 | 0.667 | 52 | |||
| 1/1 | Iowa | +245 | 0.466 | 27 | -1.27127 | -0.76357 |
| Mississippi St | -290 | 0.534 | 22 | |||
| 1/1 | Kentucky | +170 | 0.376 | 27 | -1.02962 | -0.97817 |
| Penn State | -200 | 0.624 | 24 | |||
| 1/1 | LSU | -275 | 0.435 | 40 | -0.3415 | -0.83241 |
| Central Florida | +235 | 0.565 | 32 | |||
| 1/1 | Washington | +190 | 0.329 | 23 | -0.40196 | -0.39899 |
| Ohio State | -230 | 0.671 | 28 | |||
| 1/1 | Texas | +425 | 0.132 | 28 | -1.6942 | -2.02495 |
| Georgia | -550 | 0.868 | 21 | |||
| 1/7 | Clemson | +180 | 0.167 | 44 | -1.07329 | -1.78976 |
| Alabama | -220 | 0.833 | 16 |
Above are our results from each game last week between FBS opponents. To find the Log Loss of the sportsbook pick, we translate the final money line into relative odds to win and then do the calculation.
1 The values used are based on the last available projection.
College Football FBS Season Prediction Results
2018
| Games | Wins | Losses | No Pick | Win Pct. | Log Loss | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5Dimes | 768 | 564 | 196 | 8 | 0.74 | -0.50025 |
| DRatings | 768 | 573 | 193 | 2 | 0.747 | -0.5078 |
Games from 1/7
| Games | Wins | Losses | No Pick | Win Pct. | Log Loss | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5Dimes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1.07329 |
| DRatings | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1.78976 |
Last Week
| Games | Wins | Losses | No Pick | Win Pct. | Log Loss | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5Dimes | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0.333 | -0.96864 |
| DRatings | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0.167 | -1.13131 |
Last Two Weeks
| Games | Wins | Losses | No Pick | Win Pct. | Log Loss | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5Dimes | 25 | 12 | 13 | 0 | 0.48 | -0.7866 |
| DRatings | 25 | 13 | 12 | 0 | 0.52 | -0.78636 |
The table listed above shows how our projections have done against Sportsbook Consensus. The idea is to test our probabilities of victory for each team against the sportsbooks (we used 5Dimes, but could have used anyone). Wins, losses, and win percentage are self-explanatory. “No pick” occurs when the odds are even for both sides at the sportsbook, or when we project the game at 50% on each side. Attempting to explain Log Loss is a little complicated, but in a nutshell, the lower number is better. For more information in the examination of this creiteria, see: Making Sense of Log Loss.
Donchess Inference Predictor Results – NCAA FBS Football
Last Week (Week 15): Straight Up: 1-0 (100%), Against The Spread: 0-1 (0.0%)
2018-2019 Season: Straight Up: 541-174 (75.7%), Against The Spread: 370-331 (52.8%)
2017-2018 Season: Straight Up: 563-215 (72.4%), Against The Spread: 376-382 (49.6%)
2016-2017 Season: Straight Up: 547-214 (71.9%), Against The Spread: 376-362 (50.9%)
2015-2016 Season: Straight Up: 604-177 (77.3%), Against The Spread: 382-363 (51.2%)
2014-2015 Season: Straight Up: 507-211 (70.6%), Against The Spread: 351-346 (50.4%)
2013-2014 Season: Straight Up: 547-186 (74.6%), Against The Spread: 368-326 (53.0%)
*Historical results can be found at The Prediction Tracker.
The results for The Prediction Tracker may be different than the results shown in our Log Loss. The Prediction Tracker takes the first projections it finds and does not include any updates that we may make to the projection as the week progresses.