NFL Football Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for October 5, 2023

TimeTeamsQuarterbacksWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
PointsTotal
Points
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Chicago Bears (0-4)
Washington Commanders (2-2)
Justin Fields
Sam Howell
24.6%
75.4%
+220
-250
+230
-250
+5½-105
-5½-108
+6-110
-5½-110
17.1
24.8
41.9
o44½-105
u44½-108
o44-110
u44-110
Games for Oct 4, 2023

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Points
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Los Angeles Rams
Cincinnati Bengals
29.1%
70.9%
+150
-160
+150
-165
+3+100
-3-113
+3+100
-3-110
16
19
-0.50078-0.49617-0.34349
Philadelphia Eagles
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
73.9%
26.1%
-255
+220
-245
+220
-5½-108
+5½-105
-5½-110
+6-110
25
11
-0.36120-0.36468-0.30212
Pittsburgh Steelers
Las Vegas Raiders
47.9%
52.1%
+150
-160
+142
-155
+3-108
-3-108
+3-110
-3-105
23
18
-0.93156-0.90461-0.73599
Chicago Bears
Kansas City Chiefs
12.8%
87.2%
+609
-725
+575
-725
+12½-108
-11½-108
+12½-110
-12½-110
10
41
-0.14885-0.15579-0.13723
Dallas Cowboys
Arizona Cardinals
90.2%
9.8%
-610
+500
-625
+550
-11-110
+12½-108
-11-110
+12-110
16
28
-1.81726-1.88757-2.31892
Carolina Panthers
Seattle Seahawks
28.6%
71.4%
+185
-200
+190
-206
+4½-108
-4-105
+4½-110
-4½-110
27
37
-0.42286-0.41358-0.33690
Indianapolis Colts
Baltimore Ravens
17.4%
82.6%
+290
-360
+320
-360
+7½-108
-7-115
+7½-110
-7½-105
22
19
-1.39926-1.45556-1.74715
Atlanta Falcons
Detroit Lions
36.5%
63.5%
+155
-165
+160
-170
+3+107
-3-117
+3½-115
-3-110
6
20
-0.48848-0.47678-0.45389
Buffalo Bills
Washington Commanders
73.4%
26.6%
-218
+205
-220
+200
-5-105
+5½-108
-4½-110
+5½-110
37
3
-0.39087-0.39531-0.30948
Denver Broncos
Miami Dolphins
34.1%
65.9%
+230
-257
+235
-260
+6-108
-6-108
+6-110
-6-110
20
70
-0.35132-0.34595-0.41711
New Orleans Saints
Green Bay Packers
46.2%
53.8%
-115
+110
-120
+106
-1½-110
+2-108
-1-110
+1½-110
17
18
-0.75294-0.75313-0.61906
New England Patriots
New York Jets
51.4%
48.6%
-135
+125
-135
+120
-2½-108
+2½-108
-2½-110
+2½+100
15
10
-0.57304-0.58291-0.66614
Houston Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars
16.5%
83.5%
+295
-365
+320
-365
+7½-113
-7½+100
+7½-110
-7½+100
37
17
-1.41112-1.45783-1.80351
Tennessee Titans
Cleveland Browns
25.2%
74.8%
+165
-180
+163
-170
+3½-105
-3½-108
+3½-110
-3½-110
3
27
-0.46185-0.47244-0.29008
Los Angeles Chargers
Minnesota Vikings
45.9%
54.1%
-110
-110
-105
+100
+0-110
+0-103
+1-110
+1-110
28
24
-0.69315-0.68116-0.77829
New York Giants
San Francisco 49ers
19.0%
81.0%
+460
-570
+480
-600
+10½-108
-10½-105
+10½-105
-10½-110
12
30
-0.19053-0.18327-0.21115
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks1613-3 (0.812)0-0.52803 
Sportsbooks1613-3 (0.812)0-0.53288 
DRatings1612-4 (0.750)0-0.57441
-0.04638
-0.04153

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 10/02/23
 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLTMake PlayoffsWin DivWin ConfWin Super Bowl
1Philadelphia Eagles (4-0-0)12.64.40.093.8%70.3%31.2%18.5%
2Kansas City Chiefs (3-1-0)12.24.80.092.9%81.2%34.3%18.1%
3Buffalo Bills (3-1-0)12.05.00.093.4%70.4%32.4%16.6%
4San Francisco 49ers (4-0-0)12.94.10.095.3%81.9%38.6%15.8%
5Dallas Cowboys (3-1-0)10.66.40.076.1%25.6%8.5%4.9%
6Detroit Lions (3-1-0)11.25.80.085.2%72.5%10.0%4.2%
7Baltimore Ravens (3-1-0)10.46.60.072.4%51.0%8.6%3.1%
8Miami Dolphins (3-1-0)10.07.00.067.8%23.4%6.9%3.0%
9Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2-0)9.08.00.055.4%37.1%2.4%2.2%
10Seattle Seahawks (3-1-0)9.57.50.057.7%13.9%2.5%1.8%
11Cleveland Browns (2-2-0)9.37.70.056.2%26.8%4.5%1.5%
12Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1-0)9.37.70.057.0%35.4%2.2%1.3%
13Los Angeles Chargers (2-2-0)8.78.30.045.0%15.2%3.9%1.1%
14New England Patriots (1-3-0)7.19.90.017.6%3.2%0.8%0.9%
15Tennessee Titans (2-2-0)8.68.40.048.2%32.6%2.4%0.9%
16Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2-0)8.58.50.041.8%17.2%1.3%0.8%
17Green Bay Packers (2-2-0)8.48.60.037.9%16.2%1.3%0.7%
18New Orleans Saints (2-2-0)9.17.90.050.9%32.9%1.8%0.7%
19Atlanta Falcons (2-2-0)8.98.10.048.4%30.1%1.8%0.6%
20Cincinnati Bengals (1-3-0)6.710.30.014.8%5.0%0.1%0.6%
21Los Angeles Rams (2-2-0)7.79.30.025.2%3.6%0.8%0.6%
22Minnesota Vikings (1-3-0)7.59.50.026.7%11.1%0.4%0.5%
23Houston Texans (2-2-0)7.89.20.031.5%17.4%1.2%0.5%
24Washington Commanders (2-2-0)7.79.30.025.5%3.1%0.9%0.4%
25New York Jets (1-3-0)6.810.20.017.1%3.0%0.2%0.3%
26Indianapolis Colts (2-2-0)7.39.70.024.7%12.9%0.7%0.1%
27Las Vegas Raiders (1-3-0)6.610.40.014.4%2.5%0.2%0.1%
28Denver Broncos (1-3-0)5.811.20.06.8%1.1%0.1%0.1%
29New York Giants (1-3-0)6.210.80.09.9%1.0%0.0%0.1%
30Carolina Panthers (0-4-0)4.812.20.04.0%1.6%0.0%0.0%
31Arizona Cardinals (1-3-0)5.411.60.05.3%0.6%0.0%0.0%
32Chicago Bears (0-4-0)3.613.40.01.1%0.2%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

The NFL computer predictions that are listed below are based on a combination of factors. While home field advantage is a major factor, we do not account for specific weather in our projections. A full list of variables and non-variables that go into our equation may further be explained in our disclaimer.

Note that we are an information site, not a touting service and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only. You will find information on probabilities for each team to win, predicted score, total score and more.