NFL Football Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 22, 2024

TimeTeamsQuarterbacksWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
PointsTotal
Points
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Los Angeles Chargers (2-0)
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0)
Justin Herbert
Justin Fields
48.6%
51.4%
+105
-120
+107
-125
+1½-108
-1-110
+1½-108
-1½-108
18.6
19.2
37.8
o35½-110
u36-108
o35½-110
u36-110
Chicago Bears (1-1)
Indianapolis Colts (0-2)
Caleb Williams
Anthony Richardson
51.6%
48.4%
+110
-125
+105
-120
+2-108
-2-105
+1½-110
-1-108
23.7
22.8
46.5
o43½-108
u43½-108
o43½-110
u43½-110
Houston Texans (2-0)
Minnesota Vikings (2-0)
C.J. Stroud
Sam Darnold
53.8%
46.2%
-130
+115
-130
+120
-2-108
+2-105
-2-108
+2-108
23.0
21.3
44.3
o46-108
u46½-108
o46-110
u46-110
Overall Bet Value Active
New York Giants (0-2)
Cleveland Browns (1-1)
Daniel Jones
Deshaun Watson
29.6%
70.4%
+250
-290
+250
-285
+6½-105
-6½-108
+6½-108
-6½-108
17.6
24.2
41.8
o38½-110
u39½-110
o39-110
u39½-110
Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)
New Orleans Saints (2-0)
Jalen Hurts
Derek Carr
52.6%
47.4%
+130
-145
+131
-150
+2½-101
-3+102
+3-110
-3+100
23.3
22.1
45.4
o49½-105
u49½-108
o49½-110
u49½-110
Overall Bet Value Active
Denver Broncos (0-2)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0)
Bo Nix
Baker Mayfield
29.3%
70.7%
+245
-280
+264
-310
+6½-105
-6½-105
+6½+100
-6½-110
18.2
25.0
43.2
o40½-110
u41-108
o40½-110
u41-110
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Green Bay Packers (1-1)
Tennessee Titans (0-2)
Malik Willis
Will Levis
55.6%
44.4%
+125
-140
+130
-140
+2½+102
-2½-115
+2½+102
-2½-110
22.3
20.1
42.4
o38-108
u38-105
o37½-110
u38-110
Carolina Panthers (0-2)
Las Vegas Raiders (1-1)
Andy Dalton
Gardner Minshew II
29.3%
70.7%
+200
-230
+210
-220
+5-105
-5-108
+5-110
-4½-108
16.0
22.6
38.6
o40-108
u40-108
o40-110
u40-110
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Miami Dolphins (1-1)
Seattle Seahawks (2-0)
Skylar Thompson
Geno Smith
27.4%
72.6%
+185
-210
+195
-215
+4½-108
-4½-106
+4½-108
-4½-108
18.7
25.7
44.4
o41½-108
u41½-108
o41½-110
u42½-110
Detroit Lions (1-1)
Arizona Cardinals (1-1)
Jared Goff
Kyler Murray
59.4%
40.6%
-145
+135
-145
+130
-3+102
+2½+105
-2½-110
+3-115
27.7
24.5
52.2
o51½-108
u51½-108
o51½-110
u52-110
Baltimore Ravens (0-2)
Dallas Cowboys (1-1)
Lamar Jackson
Dak Prescott
52.4%
47.6%
-115
-105
-110
+100
-1-108
+1-108
+0-110
+1-108
25.5
24.3
49.8
o47½-115
u48-108
o48½-110
u48½-110
San Francisco 49ers (1-1)
Los Angeles Rams (0-2)
Brock Purdy
Matthew Stafford
74.9%
25.1%
-285
+250
-280
+260
-6½-108
+6+100
-6½-108
+7-120
28.0
20.3
48.3
o43½-108
u43½-108
o43-110
u44-110
Kansas City Chiefs (2-0)
Atlanta Falcons (1-1)
Patrick Mahomes
Kirk Cousins
61.6%
38.4%
-160
+145
-155
+150
-3-110
+3½-118
-3-108
+3½-120
24.5
21.1
45.6
o46½-108
u46½-108
o46½-110
u47-110
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Sep 21, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Points
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
53.1%
46.9%
+125
-140
+125
-134
+2½-105
-2½-108
+2½+100
-2½-108
31
10
-0.83833-0.82789-0.63313
New York Jets
San Francisco 49ers
34.7%
65.3%
+175
-190
+184
-185
+3½-105
-3½-108
+4-108
-3½-110
19
32
-0.44150-0.43337-0.42557
Los Angeles Rams
Detroit Lions
30.4%
69.6%
+210
-235
+216
-245
+5½-110
-5-108
+5½-108
-5½-108
20
26
-0.37834-0.36855-0.36292
Dallas Cowboys
Cleveland Browns
49.3%
50.7%
+110
-120
+120
-130
+2-108
-1½-105
+2-108
-2-108
33
17
-0.76336-0.80802-0.70751
Washington Commanders
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
34.0%
66.0%
+190
-195
+190
-195
+4-105
-4-108
+4-108
-4-108
20
37
-0.41980-0.41980-0.41491
Denver Broncos
Seattle Seahawks
30.2%
69.8%
+250
-280
+255
-280
+6½-105
-6½-108
+6½+100
-6½-108
20
26
-0.32768-0.32375-0.35905
Las Vegas Raiders
Los Angeles Chargers
38.5%
61.5%
+135
-150
+135
-140
+3-108
-3+100
+3-110
-3+100
10
22
-0.53604-0.54782-0.48592
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
57.2%
42.8%
-155
+140
-160
+143
-3-105
+3-108
-3-105
+3-110
29
27
-0.52206-0.51206-0.55814
Arizona Cardinals
Buffalo Bills
21.5%
78.5%
+247
-280
+260
-290
+6½-105
-6½-108
+6½+100
-6½-110
28
34
-0.33010-0.31741-0.24264
Tennessee Titans
Chicago Bears
36.6%
63.4%
+175
-195
+192
-200
+4-103
-4-110
+4½-108
-4-110
17
24
-0.43833-0.41456-0.45519
New England Patriots
Cincinnati Bengals
20.4%
79.6%
+325
-370
+335
-354
+7½-108
-7½+100
+8-110
-7½-106
16
10
-1.46920-1.47973-1.59116
Carolina Panthers
New Orleans Saints
31.1%
68.9%
+165
-185
+170
-185
+3½-107
-3½-105
+3½-108
-3½-108
10
47
-0.45828-0.45144-0.37308
Minnesota Vikings
New York Giants
54.2%
45.8%
-115
+100
-102
+100
-1-108
+1-108
+1-110
+1-110
28
6
-0.66000-0.68824-0.61253
Pittsburgh Steelers
Atlanta Falcons
38.4%
61.6%
+170
-191
+184
-190
+4-108
-4-105
+4-105
-4-108
18
10
-1.01963-1.05105-0.95664
Jacksonville Jaguars
Miami Dolphins
40.6%
59.4%
+164
-175
+173
-175
+3½-108
-3½-108
+3½-108
-3½-105
17
20
-0.46703-0.45465-0.52141
Green Bay Packers
Philadelphia Eagles
45.0%
55.0%
+105
-120
+110
-115
+1-108
-1-108
+2-110
-1-110
29
34
-0.63885-0.63673-0.59766
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks168-8 (0.500)0-0.77996 
Sportsbooks168-7 (0.531)1-0.77752 
DRatings168-8 (0.500)0-0.74655
0.03342
0.03097

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 09/16/24
 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLTMake PlayoffsWin DivWin ConfConf ChampWin Super Bowl
1Kansas City Chiefs (2-0-0)12.24.80.089.2%68.8%32.6%25.6%15.4%
2Buffalo Bills (2-0-0)11.06.00.078.4%53.7%18.4%17.7%10.1%
3Dallas Cowboys (1-1-0)9.87.20.064.4%44.7%9.5%14.8%7.5%
4San Francisco 49ers (1-1-0)10.16.90.066.4%44.4%10.5%14.2%7.5%
5Houston Texans (2-0-0)10.36.70.073.4%63.5%11.2%10.7%6.1%
6Baltimore Ravens (0-2-0)9.47.60.056.1%32.6%4.4%9.8%5.8%
7Philadelphia Eagles (1-1-0)9.97.10.066.1%45.4%9.9%11.7%5.4%
8Detroit Lions (1-1-0)9.67.40.056.8%33.8%9.7%9.9%4.5%
9New Orleans Saints (2-0-0)10.36.70.065.8%42.1%14.8%9.6%4.1%
10Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0-0)9.87.20.061.6%32.5%10.6%7.9%3.0%
11Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0-0)9.77.30.058.9%35.9%7.1%5.9%2.9%
12Miami Dolphins (1-1-0)9.27.80.051.5%21.8%4.4%5.8%2.8%
13Seattle Seahawks (2-0-0)9.27.80.049.8%26.5%6.8%6.6%2.8%
14Minnesota Vikings (2-0-0)9.67.40.058.6%33.5%10.3%6.5%2.6%
15Los Angeles Chargers (2-0-0)9.87.20.060.4%22.4%9.0%5.3%2.4%
16New York Jets (1-1-0)9.08.00.048.3%19.3%4.8%4.1%2.0%
17Atlanta Falcons (1-1-0)9.17.90.048.2%24.3%6.2%5.1%2.0%
18Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2-0)7.39.70.028.5%17.0%1.0%3.2%1.8%
19Cincinnati Bengals (0-2-0)8.28.80.036.0%15.9%1.3%3.5%1.7%
20Chicago Bears (1-1-0)8.58.50.040.4%18.6%3.7%3.7%1.5%
21Cleveland Browns (1-1-0)8.09.00.032.1%15.6%2.7%2.9%1.5%
22Los Angeles Rams (0-2-0)7.69.40.027.3%13.0%1.6%3.1%1.3%
23Arizona Cardinals (1-1-0)8.18.90.035.4%16.1%3.0%2.9%1.2%
24Las Vegas Raiders (1-1-0)8.09.00.033.2%7.4%1.9%2.3%1.1%
25Green Bay Packers (1-1-0)8.09.00.032.5%14.1%2.7%2.4%0.9%
26Indianapolis Colts (0-2-0)7.010.00.023.7%14.1%0.5%1.9%0.9%
27New York Giants (0-2-0)5.711.30.09.2%4.2%0.3%0.9%0.4%
28Washington Commanders (1-1-0)6.310.70.013.8%5.7%0.3%0.7%0.2%
29Denver Broncos (0-2-0)5.411.60.07.8%1.4%0.2%0.5%0.2%
30Tennessee Titans (0-2-0)5.511.50.09.8%5.4%0.1%0.4%0.2%
31New England Patriots (1-1-0)6.210.80.012.7%5.2%0.4%0.4%0.2%
32Carolina Panthers (0-2-0)4.512.50.03.7%1.1%0.1%0.2%0.1%

Predictions Methodology

The NFL computer predictions that are listed below are based on a combination of factors. While home field advantage is a major factor, we do not account for specific weather in our projections. A full list of variables and non-variables that go into our equation may further be explained in our disclaimer.

Note that we are an information site, not a touting service and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only. You will find information on probabilities for each team to win, predicted score, total score and more.