Arouca at Nacional

Updated

Arouca

31.8%29.0%39.2%
Arouca WinDrawNacional Win
1.02Projected Goals 1.18
2Final Score 1

Nacional

Last 5 Games

Arouca
Money Line
W 0-1 vs Moreirense+135
T 2-2 at Vitoria+500
W 3-1 at Boavista+130
T 1-1 vs Gil Vicente FC+125
L 1-3 at Casa Pia AC+215
Nacional
Money Line
L 0-2 at Sporting CP+1175
W 1-3 vs AVS+105
L 1-2 at Rio Ave+290
T 2-2 at Vitoria+600
L 2-0 vs Benfica

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:3.9%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:4.9%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Arouca+165+223+215+210+220+210+223+234.3
Nacional+160+138+135+138+132+138+138+156.6
Draw+215+222+205+198+216+198+222+221.3
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Arouca+190----+220+220+234.3
Nacional+155----+140+140+156.6
Draw+220----+210+210+221.3

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Arouca: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Nacional: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Arouca: 10.0%
Nacional: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Arouca: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Arouca: 0.0%
Nacional: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Arouca ML moved from +210 to +203
Nacional ML moved from +149 to +142

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Arouca: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Nacional: 10.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Arouca: 0.0%
Nacional: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Arouca: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Arouca: 0.0%
Nacional: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Arouca ML
Nacional ML moved from +155 to +145

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:-0.7%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo2¼-110o2½+118o2¼-108o2¼-102o2¼-107o2¼-102o2¼-102o2¼+107
Underu2¼-110u2½-139u2¼-112u2¼-118u2¼-113u2¼-118u2½-139u2¼-107
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o2¼+107
Under-----u2¼-107

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Over: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes44.4%
 
No55.6%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 011.03%
Exactly 226.80%
Exactly 410.86%
Exactly 61.76%
Exactly 80.15%
 
Exactly 124.32%
Exactly 319.70%
Exactly 54.79%
Exactly 70.55%
Exact Goals Scored - Arouca
Exactly 035.77%
Exactly 136.77%
Exactly 218.90%
Exactly 36.48%
Exactly 41.66%
Exactly 50.34%
Exact Goals Scored - Nacional
Exactly 030.83%
Exactly 136.28%
Exactly 221.34%
Exactly 38.37%
Exactly 42.46%
Exactly 50.58%
Exactly 60.11%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 036.03%
Exactly 218.77%
Exactly 41.63%
 
Exactly 136.78%
Exactly 36.39%
Exactly 50.33%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Arouca
Exactly 062.13%
Exactly 129.57%
Exactly 27.04%
Exactly 31.12%
Exactly 40.13%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Nacional
Exactly 058.00%
Exactly 131.59%
Exactly 28.61%
Exactly 31.56%
Exactly 40.21%

Alternate Props

Spread

Arouca
Wins by 2+ goals11.98%
Wins by 3+ goals3.42%
Wins by 4+ goals0.74%
Wins by 5+ goals0.11%
Nacional
Wins by 2+ goals16.64%
Wins by 3+ goals5.42%
Wins by 4+ goals1.40%
Wins by 5+ goals0.29%

Exact Winning Margin

Arouca
Nacional
5
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
Arouca
Wins by 1 goal19.73%
Wins by 2 goals8.56%
Wins by 3 goals2.67%
Wins by 4 goals0.64%
Wins by 5 goals0.11%
Nacional
Wins by 1 goal22.58%
Wins by 2 goals11.22%
Wins by 3 goals4.02%
Wins by 4 goals1.12%
Wins by 5 goals0.25%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.588.97%11.03%
1.564.65%35.35%
2.537.85%62.15%
3.518.15%81.85%
4.57.30%92.70%
5.52.51%97.49%

Total Goals Arouca Over/Under

OverUnder
0.564.23%35.77%
1.527.46%72.54%
2.58.55%91.45%
3.52.08%97.92%

Total Goals Nacional Over/Under

OverUnder
0.569.17%30.83%
1.532.89%67.11%
2.511.55%88.45%
3.53.18%96.82%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.563.97%36.03%
1.527.19%72.81%
2.58.42%91.58%
3.52.03%97.97%

Score Props

Correct Score

Arouca
Nacional
Score012345
0
11.03%
12.98%
7.63%
2.99%
0.88%
0.21%
1
11.34%
13.34%
7.85%
3.08%
0.91%
0.21%
2
5.83%
6.86%
4.03%
1.58%
0.47%
0.11%
3
2.00%
2.35%
1.38%
0.54%
0.16%
0.04%
4
0.51%
0.60%
0.36%
0.14%
0.04%
0.01%
5
0.11%
0.12%
0.07%
0.03%
0.01%
0.00%
Arouca
1-011.34%
2-05.83%
2-16.86%
3-02.00%
3-12.35%
3-21.38%
4-00.51%
4-10.60%
4-20.36%
4-30.14%
5-00.11%
5-10.12%
Draw
0-011.03%
1-113.34%
2-24.03%
3-30.54%
Nacional
0-112.98%
0-27.63%
1-27.85%
0-32.99%
1-33.08%
2-31.58%
0-40.88%
1-40.91%
2-40.47%
3-40.16%
0-50.21%
1-50.21%
2-50.11%

Correct Score - First Half

Arouca
Nacional
Score01234
0
36.03%
19.63%
5.35%
0.97%
0.13%
1
17.15%
9.34%
2.54%
0.46%
0.06%
2
4.08%
2.22%
0.61%
0.11%
0.01%
3
0.65%
0.35%
0.10%
0.02%
0.00%
Arouca
1-017.15%
2-04.08%
2-12.22%
3-00.65%
3-10.35%
Draw
0-036.03%
1-19.34%
2-20.61%
Nacional
0-119.63%
0-25.35%
1-22.54%
0-30.97%
1-30.46%
2-30.11%
0-40.13%
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