Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 6, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Arouca
Famalicao 		19.3%
57.7%		23.0%
+355
-125
+350
-125
0.94
1.80		2.74
o2½-105
u2½-114

Games for Mar 5, 2026
Games for Mar 7, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Moreirense
Sporting CP		5.1%
83.0%		11.9%
+1270
-482
+1300
-550
0
3		-0.22762-0.21671-0.18632
Famalicao
Casa Pia AC		47.8%
26.0%		26.2%
+121
+265
+115
+260
1
1		-1.20354-1.22799-1.33956
Estoril
Gil Vicente FC		28.9%
42.0%		29.0%
+307
+102
+310
+100
0
2		-0.74246-0.74345-0.86667
Estrela
Tondela		22.4%
52.4%		25.2%
+271
+135
+265
+120
0
0		-1.18143-1.18123-1.37904
Braga
Vitoria		34.4%
37.1%		28.4%
-106
+317
-110
+325
1
1		-1.29000-1.28616-1.25794
Benfica
AVS		78.8%
7.2%		14.0%
-489
+1256
-600
+1250
3
0		-0.22268-0.20524-0.23875
Arouca
Nacional		36.0%
34.4%		29.5%
+236
+131
+240
+125
2
1		-1.25218-1.27357-1.02051
Alverca
Santa Clara		11.6%
69.2%		19.2%
+443
-126
+450
-135
1
2		-0.61776-0.60349-0.36824
Porto
Rio Ave		72.2%
9.8%		17.9%
-270
+738
-325
+800
3
0		-0.34549-0.31825-0.32508
Gil Vicente FC
Braga		9.8%
73.2%		17.0%
+424
-132
+500
-165
1
0		-1.68524-1.84288-2.31993
Casa Pia AC
Arouca		18.3%
57.3%		24.4%
+283
+111
+270
+115
2
0		-1.38198-1.35985-1.69767
Vitoria
Estrela		50.8%
23.1%		26.0%
+147
+225
+150
+210
2
0		-0.94907-0.96551-0.67653
Sporting CP
Famalicao		58.3%
19.0%		22.7%
-191
+498
-225
+575
2
1		-0.46075-0.41746-0.53907
Nacional
Porto		4.4%
85.2%		10.4%
+1494
-480
+1800
-665
0
1		-0.22130-0.19058-0.16033
AVS
Estoril		16.1%
61.2%		22.7%
+386
-133
+390
-145
1
3		-0.58875-0.57552-0.49110
Rio Ave
Moreirense		16.5%
60.0%		23.5%
+285
+117
+290
+115
1
3		-0.80916-0.81369-0.51099
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).