Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for December 13, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Gil Vicente FC
Casa Pia AC 		48.2%
24.6%		27.1%
+119
+260

1.40
0.92		2.32
o2-112
u2-108

Vitoria
Rio Ave 		45.0%
26.7%		28.3%
+151
+175

1.29
0.93		2.22
o2¼-120
u2¼+100

AVS
Sporting CP 		3.9%
86.1%		10.0%
+2000
-1400

0.52
2.95		3.47
o3½-118
u3½-102

Games for Dec 12, 2025
Games for Dec 14, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Famalicao
Arouca		34.9%
35.8%		29.3%
-105
+317
-115
+320
1
1		-1.29598-1.33044-1.22915
Santa Clara
Vitoria		21.8%
52.6%		25.5%
+166
+208
+165
+210
1
2		-1.16376-1.18097-0.64177
Alverca
AVS		28.2%
43.7%		28.0%
+132
+236
+150
+200
3
1		-0.88003-0.96582-1.26471
Estrela
Gil Vicente FC		19.3%
56.2%		24.6%
+430
-135
+525
-165
0
2		-0.60596-0.52192-0.57677
Estoril
Casa Pia AC		35.3%
34.5%		30.1%
+173
+180
+170
+180
2
2		-1.20932-1.18026-1.19995
Porto
Arouca		67.7%
12.3%		20.0%
-400
+1100
-400
+1000
4
0		-0.26126-0.27403-0.39081
Rio Ave
Famalicao		15.5%
62.7%		21.8%
+396
-142
+375
-140
0
0		-1.42014-1.41001-1.52473
Nacional
Braga		9.7%
74.2%		16.1%
+705
-228
+730
-250
1
0		-2.11993-2.16491-2.33707
Vitoria
Alverca		48.9%
24.5%		26.5%
+199
+177
+160
+190
0
2		-1.04401-1.11541-1.40470
Sporting CP
Estoril		67.4%
12.6%		19.9%
-392
+1023
-425
+975
1
0		-0.26633-0.26075-0.39380
AVS
Estrela		25.1%
47.9%		26.9%
+247
+126
+265
+120
0
3		-0.85762-0.83829-0.73555
Casa Pia AC
Moreirense		20.1%
55.1%		24.8%
+280
+114
+270
+115
1
2		-0.80006-0.81697-0.59624
Tondela
Santa Clara		19.2%
57.0%		23.7%
+438
-122
+470
-145
2
1		-1.71180-1.79210-1.64771
Gil Vicente FC
Benfica		4.6%
84.6%		10.8%
+950
-318
+1025
-345
1
2		-0.31281-0.30271-0.16763
Rio Ave
Benfica		3.3%
87.8%		8.9%
+1706
-648
+2500
-1000
1
1		-2.20437-2.32616-2.41654
Moreirense
Sporting CP		5.1%
83.0%		11.9%
+1270
-482
+1300
-550
0
3		-0.22762-0.21671-0.18632
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.13476 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.11621 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.40511
-0.27035
-0.28890

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).