Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 6, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Arouca
Famalicao 		19.3%
57.7%		23.0%
+340
-124
+350
-125
0.94
1.80		2.74
o2¼-137
u2½-115

Games for Mar 5, 2026
Games for Mar 7, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Estrela
Benfica		3.4%
87.9%		8.7%
+1500
-556
+1600
-650
0
4		-0.19985-0.19236-0.12873
Rio Ave
Nacional		26.1%
47.4%		26.5%
+280
-107
+285
-105
0
4		-0.70899-0.71756-0.74670
Vitoria
Estoril		34.5%
36.2%		29.4%
+208
+144
+175
+155
2
4		-0.92707-0.98481-1.01694
Sporting CP
Arouca		76.6%
7.3%		16.1%
-357
+950
-350
+850
2
1		-0.28272-0.29982-0.26642
Santa Clara
Moreirense		34.2%
36.4%		29.4%
+185
+200
+170
+200
0
1		-1.13311-1.14602-1.01099
AVS
Casa Pia AC		26.2%
44.7%		29.1%
+310
+106
+290
+110
3
3		-1.19534-1.19627-1.23526
Estoril
Estrela		39.3%
31.0%		29.8%
+158
+183
+135
+205
5
0		-0.99171-0.90084-0.93501
Porto
Vitoria		63.5%
14.0%		22.5%
-204
+600
-215
+650
1
0		-0.44434-0.43183-0.45402
Braga
Tondela		62.5%
15.7%		21.8%
-189
+550
-195
+565
1
0		-0.47797-0.46501-0.47015
Famalicao
Santa Clara		37.8%
34.5%		27.6%
+158
+205
+155
+210
1
0		-1.00299-0.98305-0.97180
Benfica
Rio Ave		74.2%
9.1%		16.6%
-345
+850
-310
+825
2
0		-0.31196-0.33112-0.29789
Moreirense
Alverca		34.7%
36.6%		28.7%
+235
+145
+260
+130
1
2		-0.94407-0.88317-1.00479
Arouca
AVS		39.5%
31.3%		29.2%
+180
+162
+180
+170
1
0		-1.08438-1.07852-0.92788
Nacional
Gil Vicente FC		16.6%
60.1%		23.3%
+395
-133
+400
-135
1
2		-0.61378-0.60525-0.50928
Casa Pia AC
Sporting CP		2.8%
89.2%		8.0%
+1300
-588
+1500
-625
0
3		-0.20688-0.19679-0.11420
Santa Clara
Nacional		34.3%
36.8%		28.9%
+185
+173
+190
+180
3
3		-1.12485-1.11042-1.24116
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).