Estrela at Nacional

Updated

Estrela

26.0%25.2%48.8%
Estrela WinDrawNacional Win
1.08Projected Goals 1.57
0Final Score 2

Nacional

Last 5 Games

Estrela
Money Line
W 0-4 vs Casa Pia AC+150
L 1-2 at Rio Ave+205
T 2-2 vs Gil Vicente FC+350
T 0-0 at AVS+150
L 2-0 vs Tondela+190
Nacional
Money Line
L 0-1 at Famalicao+445
L 1-0 vs Estoril+120
T 1-1 at Moreirense+200
L 2-1 vs Braga+480
L 0-3 at Arouca+205

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:3.0%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:4.9%
 Open Line3etBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Estrela+265-+310+340+330+330+330+343.2
Nacional+101--121-115-115-115-115-107.9
Draw+240-+265+270+280+280+280+291.6
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Estrela+275----+325+325+343.2
Nacional+100-----120-120-107.9
Draw+250----+270+270+291.6

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Estrela: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Nacional: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Estrela: 20.0%
Nacional: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Estrela: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Estrela: 0.0%
Nacional: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Estrela ML moved from +340 to +330
Nacional ML moved from -114 to -121

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Estrela: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Nacional: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Estrela: 20.0%
Nacional: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Estrela: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Estrela: 0.0%
Nacional: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Estrela ML moved from +275 to +260
Nacional ML moved from +105 to -120

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:2.3%
 Open Line3etBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo2½+100-o2½-122o2¾+103o2¾+103o2¾+103o2½-122o2¾+112
Underu2½-120-u2½+102u2¾-123u2¾-123u2¾-123u2¾-123u2¾-112
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o2¾+112
Under-----u2¾-112

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Over: 10.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes52.2%
 
No47.8%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 07.08%
Exactly 224.82%
Exactly 414.50%
Exactly 63.39%
Exactly 80.42%
 
Exactly 118.75%
Exactly 321.91%
Exactly 57.68%
Exactly 71.28%
Exactly 90.12%
Exact Goals Scored - Estrela
Exactly 034.10%
Exactly 136.69%
Exactly 219.74%
Exactly 37.08%
Exactly 41.90%
Exactly 50.41%
Exact Goals Scored - Nacional
Exactly 020.77%
Exactly 132.64%
Exactly 225.65%
Exactly 313.44%
Exactly 45.28%
Exactly 51.66%
Exactly 60.43%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 029.35%
Exactly 222.05%
Exactly 42.76%
Exactly 60.14%
 
Exactly 135.98%
Exactly 39.01%
Exactly 50.68%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Estrela
Exactly 060.76%
Exactly 130.27%
Exactly 27.54%
Exactly 31.25%
Exactly 40.16%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Nacional
Exactly 048.31%
Exactly 135.15%
Exactly 212.79%
Exactly 33.10%
Exactly 40.56%

Alternate Props

Spread

Estrela
Wins by 2+ goals9.77%
Wins by 3+ goals2.81%
Wins by 4+ goals0.61%
Nacional
Wins by 2+ goals25.09%
Wins by 3+ goals10.24%
Wins by 4+ goals3.37%
Wins by 5+ goals0.87%
Wins by 6+ goals0.15%

Exact Winning Margin

Estrela
Nacional
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
6
Estrela
Wins by 1 goal16.16%
Wins by 2 goals6.95%
Wins by 3 goals2.20%
Wins by 4 goals0.53%
Nacional
Wins by 1 goal23.60%
Wins by 2 goals14.84%
Wins by 3 goals6.88%
Wins by 4 goals2.49%
Wins by 5 goals0.73%
Wins by 6 goals0.15%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.592.92%7.08%
1.574.17%25.83%
2.549.34%50.66%
3.527.44%72.56%
4.512.94%87.06%
5.55.26%94.74%
6.51.87%98.13%

Total Goals Estrela Over/Under

OverUnder
0.565.90%34.10%
1.529.22%70.78%
2.59.48%90.52%
3.52.40%97.60%

Total Goals Nacional Over/Under

OverUnder
0.579.23%20.77%
1.546.58%53.42%
2.520.93%79.07%
3.57.49%92.51%
4.52.21%97.79%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.570.65%29.35%
1.534.67%65.33%
2.512.62%87.38%
3.53.60%96.40%

Score Props

Correct Score

Estrela
Nacional
Score012345
0
7.08%
11.13%
8.75%
4.58%
1.80%
0.57%
1
7.62%
11.98%
9.41%
4.93%
1.94%
0.61%
2
4.10%
6.44%
5.06%
2.65%
1.04%
0.33%
3
1.47%
2.31%
1.82%
0.95%
0.37%
0.12%
4
0.40%
0.62%
0.49%
0.26%
0.10%
0.03%
Estrela
1-07.62%
2-04.10%
2-16.44%
3-01.47%
3-12.31%
3-21.82%
4-00.40%
4-10.62%
4-20.49%
4-30.26%
Draw
0-07.08%
1-111.98%
2-25.06%
3-30.95%
4-40.10%
Nacional
0-111.13%
0-28.75%
1-29.41%
0-34.58%
1-34.93%
2-32.65%
0-41.80%
1-41.94%
2-41.04%
3-40.37%
0-50.57%
1-50.61%
2-50.33%
3-50.12%

Correct Score - First Half

Estrela
Nacional
Score01234
0
29.35%
21.36%
7.77%
1.88%
0.34%
1
14.62%
10.64%
3.87%
0.94%
0.17%
2
3.64%
2.65%
0.96%
0.23%
0.04%
3
0.60%
0.44%
0.16%
0.04%
0.01%
Estrela
1-014.62%
2-03.64%
2-12.65%
3-00.60%
3-10.44%
3-20.16%
Draw
0-029.35%
1-110.64%
2-20.96%
Nacional
0-121.36%
0-27.77%
1-23.87%
0-31.88%
1-30.94%
2-30.23%
0-40.34%
1-40.17%
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