Spain La Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 19, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Las Palmas
Cadiz 		30.2%
39.9%		29.9%
+412
-124
+380
-125
0.95
1.14		2.09
o2¼+105
u2¼-121
o2-130
u2+115
Almeria
Mallorca 		26.1%
46.8%		27.1%
+799
-235
+715
-239
0.97
1.39		2.36
o2½+100
u2½-108
o2½+105
u2½-115
Real Madrid
Villarreal 		64.5%
15.3%		20.2%
+112
+234
+110
+216
2.06
0.89		2.95
o3½-102
u3½-112
o3½+105
u3½-120
Sevilla
Athletic Club 		17.6%
58.4%		24.0%
+475
-160
+435
-163
0.80
1.69		2.49
o2½-135
u2¾-112
o2½-120
u2½+110
Rayo Vallecano
Barcelona 		5.9%
81.5%		12.6%
+885
-288
+900
-325
0.60
2.70		3.30
o3¼+103
u3+114
o3-120
u3+120
Volatility Bet Value Active
Osasuna
Atletico Madrid 		8.9%
74.1%		17.0%
+800
-274
+800
-290
0.63
2.24		2.87
o3+104
u3-117
o2½-140
u3-120
Volatility Bet Value Active
Celta Vigo
Granada 		30.9%
41.7%		27.4%
+102
+293
+100
+280
1.09
1.31		2.40
o2½-111
u2½+102
o2½-120
u2½+110
Real Sociedad
Betis 		31.6%
40.9%		27.5%
+163
+216
+170
+195
1.11
1.30		2.41
o2-136
u2¼-116
o2-135
u2+120
Girona
Valencia 		22.5%
52.6%		24.9%
+130
+222
+132
+200
0.96
1.61		2.57
o2½-139
u2¾-106
o2½-135
u2½+120
Games for May 18, 2024
Games for May 20, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Real Sociedad
Alaves		45.4%
26.7%		28.0%
+122
+305
+120
+290
1
0		-0.82244-0.83718-0.79045
Betis
Girona		32.2%
40.1%		27.7%
+395
-136
+380
-135
2
3		-0.57313-0.58066-0.91502
Rayo Vallecano
Celta Vigo		21.1%
54.4%		24.4%
+347
-105
+340
-106
0
0		-1.29452-1.26954-1.40964
Las Palmas
Barcelona		5.5%
82.2%		12.3%
+975
-363
+925
-390
0
1		-0.26927-0.26904-0.19574
Mallorca
Valencia		15.6%
62.4%		22.0%
+325
+118
+320
+120
0
0		-1.13900-1.10151-1.51554
Osasuna
Almeria		32.9%
38.5%		28.6%
+201
+153
+190
+160
3
0		-1.13109-1.09934-1.11112
Sevilla
Getafe		31.5%
37.9%		30.6%
+205
+169
+205
+160
1
0		-1.14122-1.14662-1.15490
Granada
Cadiz		33.4%
37.2%		29.4%
+410
-109
+390
+100
0
1		-0.66963-0.70023-0.98883
Barcelona
Atletico Madrid		31.0%
40.6%		28.4%
+223
+127
+201
+130
3
0		-1.19703-1.14948-1.17092
Betis
Rayo Vallecano		37.8%
34.0%		28.2%
+212
+160
+210
+159
0
2		-0.98182-0.98755-1.07784
Almeria
Las Palmas		24.7%
48.8%		26.5%
+370
-129
+375
-125
1
0		-1.57330-1.58036-1.40023
Valencia
Villarreal		25.8%
49.2%		25.1%
+244
+124
+235
+121
0
1		-0.83556-0.83711-0.70978
Celta Vigo
Sevilla		21.8%
53.0%		25.2%
+310
-102
+318
-110
2
1		-1.43729-1.47408-1.52289
Alaves
Athletic Club		10.6%
70.3%		19.1%
+590
-164
+570
-175
0
2		-0.50296-0.49635-0.35193
Girona
Getafe		27.0%
44.2%		28.8%
+114
+276
+115
+265
0
1		-1.34320-1.32742-0.81647
Real Madrid
Osasuna		69.8%
11.6%		18.6%
-198
+635
-190
+560
4
2		-0.42653-0.45136-0.35926
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.70021 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.70029 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.93941
-0.23920
-0.23912

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/13/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Real Madrid (28-1-6, 90 pts)29.91.56.696.3100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Barcelona (23-5-7, 76 pts)24.95.47.782.40.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Girona (23-6-6, 75 pts)24.07.16.978.90.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
4Atletico Madrid (22-9-4, 70 pts)23.79.64.775.70.0%99.7%0.3%0.0%
5Athletic Club (17-7-11, 62 pts)18.57.711.867.30.0%0.3%99.7%0.0%
6Betis (14-8-13, 55 pts)15.09.213.858.80.0%0.0%52.1%0.0%
7Real Sociedad (14-9-12, 54 pts)15.110.212.858.00.0%0.0%47.2%0.0%
8Villarreal (13-13-9, 48 pts)14.014.29.851.80.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Valencia (13-13-9, 48 pts)14.214.09.852.30.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%
10Getafe (10-12-13, 43 pts)10.913.313.846.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Alaves (11-15-9, 42 pts)11.816.49.845.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Sevilla (10-14-11, 41 pts)10.915.311.844.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Osasuna (11-17-7, 40 pts)11.918.37.943.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Las Palmas (10-18-7, 37 pts)11.019.27.840.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%
15Mallorca (7-14-14, 35 pts)8.015.114.939.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%
16Rayo Vallecano (7-14-14, 35 pts)7.715.614.837.80.0%0.0%0.0%1.9%
17Celta Vigo (8-17-10, 34 pts)8.918.310.837.60.0%0.0%0.0%3.4%
18Cadiz (5-16-14, 29 pts)6.017.114.932.90.0%0.0%0.0%93.7%
19Granada (4-22-9, 21 pts)5.123.19.925.10.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
20Almeria (2-22-11, 17 pts)2.823.411.820.20.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Spain's La Liga is arguably the world's strongest soccer league. Twenty teams play 38 games in the league. The top four teams make Champions League. Teams that finish 5th through 7th make the Europa League. The teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to La Liga 2.