UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for May 11, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Rodrigo Nascimento
Derrick Lewis 		45.6%
54.4%
+130
-150
+130
-140
Carlos Ulberg
Alonzo Menifield 		72.5%
27.5%
-250
+214
-260
+220
Esteban Ribovics
Terrance McKinney 		55.2%
44.8%
-168
+148
-165
+150
Tecia Pennington
Tabatha Ricci 		48.0%
52.0%
+115
-135
+115
-125
Jake Hadley
Charles Johnson 		45.5%
54.5%
-164
+144
-160
+150
Sean Woodson
Alex Caceres 		54.4%
45.6%
-195
+170
-190
+170
Robelis Despaigne
Waldo Cortes-Acosta 		53.5%
46.5%
-195
+174
-190
+170
Viacheslav Borshchev
Chase Hooper 		53.7%
46.3%
-150
+130
-145
+125
Trey Waters
Billy Goff 		48.1%
51.9%
-155
+140
-165
+150
Kevin Jousset
Jared Gooden 		63.4%
36.6%
-210
+195
-210
+190
Veronica Macedo
JJ Aldrich 		51.2%
48.8%
-140
+120
-140
+130
Mateusz Rebecki
Diego Ferreira 		66.7%
33.3%
-350
+295
-330
+290
Nursulton Ruziboev
Joaquin Buckley 		34.6%
65.4%
+140
-156
+145
-165
Fights for May 10, 2024
Fights for Jun 1, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Jean Matsumoto
Dan Argueta		58.6%
41.4%
-152
+135
-160
+145
Win
Loss		-0.53386-0.50878-0.53503
Dylan Budka
Cesar Almeida		51.4%
48.6%
-160
+145
-150
+145
Loss
Win		-0.91937-0.90421-0.72155
Mellisa Dixon
Nora Cornolle		67.7%
32.3%
-400
+330
-350
+320
Loss
Win		-1.49063-1.45081-1.13144
Manon Fiorot
Erin Blanchfield		47.5%
52.5%
+170
-190
+190
-200
Win
Loss		-1.01846-1.07614-0.74440
Joaquin Buckley
Vicente Luque		51.7%
48.3%
+120
-125
+120
-125
Win
Loss		-0.79851-0.79851-0.66022
Bruno Silva
Chris Weidman		64.7%
35.3%
-160
+148
-180
+160
Loss
Win		-0.92669-0.98262-1.04202
Sedriques Dumas
Nursulton Ruziboev		40.7%
59.3%
+220
-250
+210
-220
Loss
Win		-0.36291-0.38472-0.52222
Kyle Nelson
Bill Algeo		26.1%
73.9%
+252
-290
+240
-260
Win
Loss		-1.28576-1.23998-1.34266
Rhys McKee
Chidi Njokuani		35.4%
64.6%
+110
-122
+120
-110
Loss
Win		-0.62407-0.62474-0.43679
Jamall Emmers
Nate Landwehr		60.8%
39.2%
-155
+155
-170
+150
Loss
Win		-0.93609-0.94549-0.93746
Loopy Godinez
Virna Jandiroba		58.7%
41.3%
-220
+185
-215
+200
Loss
Win		-1.08498-1.11438-0.88339
Herbert Burns
Julio Arce		26.4%
73.6%
+275
-322
+300
-330
Loss
Win		-0.29973-0.28198-0.30586
Dennis Buzukja
Connor Matthews		53.6%
46.4%
-110
-102
-115
+100
Win
Loss		-0.67497-0.66000-0.62280
Anton Turkalj
Ibo Aslan		50.3%
49.7%
+120
-135
+115
-125
Loss
Win		-0.58291-0.60825-0.69967
Jacob Malkoun
Andre Petroski		57.8%
42.2%
-230
+205
-235
+200
Win
Loss		-0.38554-0.38877-0.54758
Angel Pacheco
Caolan Loughran		30.7%
69.3%
+400
-550
+425
-525
Loss
Win		-0.21218-0.20438-0.36739
Load More Fights

Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks1311-2 (0.846)0-0.48150 
Sportsbooks1311-2 (0.846)0-0.49784 
DRatings1312-1 (0.923)0-0.55142
-0.06993
-0.05358

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.