UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for July 11, 2026

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Max Holloway
Conor McGregor 		65.9%
34.1%
-300
+250
-325
+270
Paddy Pimblett
Benoit Saint Denis 		44.0%
56.0%
+150
-175
+150
-170
Mario Bautista
Cory Sandhagen 		35.8%
64.2%
+130
-150
+130
-150
Lone'er Kavanagh
Brandon Royval 		58.3%
41.7%
-180
+155
-185
+165
Fights for Jun 14, 2026
Fights for Jul 12, 2026

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Gabriel Bonfim
Belal Muhammad		49.2%
50.8%
+110
-112
+105
-115
Win
Loss		-0.74642-0.74028-0.70928
Edmen Shahbazyan
Brendan Allen		38.9%
61.1%
+165
-183
+165
-180
Loss
Win		-0.45969-0.46185-0.49325
Tom Nolan
Fares Ziam		32.3%
67.7%
+270
-320
+300
-340
Win
Loss		-1.33998-1.40879-1.13010
Santiago Luna
Bryce Mitchell		39.8%
60.2%
+105
-115
+115
-125
Loss
Win		-0.64814-0.60825-0.50821
Junior Tafa
Iwo Baraniewski		39.2%
60.8%
+340
-440
+360
-425
Loss
Win		-0.24602-0.23786-0.49794
Alessandro Costa
Matt Schnell		84.7%
15.3%
-440
+350
-400
+350
Win
Loss		-0.24117-0.24512-0.16609
John Yannis
Marcus McGhee		20.3%
79.7%
+350
-428
+330
-380
Loss
Win		-0.24228-0.25755-0.22744
Edgar Chairez
Bruno Silva		50.5%
49.5%
+100
-108
-105
-112
Win
Loss		-0.71219-0.70875-0.68320
Chelsea Chandler
Priscila Cachoeira		49.7%
50.3%
-125
+115
-120
+115
Win
Loss		-0.60825-0.61667-0.69906
Joanderson Brito
Jordan Leavitt		67.3%
32.7%
-175
+165
-165
+155
Win
Loss		-0.46561-0.48848-0.39528
Yuneisy Duben
Jeisla Chaves		19.0%
81.0%
+215
-255
+220
-250
Loss
Win		-0.36600-0.36291-0.21129
Ariane Carnelossi
Ketlen Souza		31.6%
68.4%
+285
-350
+290
-350
Loss
Win		-0.28815-0.28493-0.38050
Deiveson Figueiredo
Song Yadong		26.0%
74.0%
+425
-600
+470
-600
Loss
Win		-0.20067-0.18621-0.30097
Alonzo Menifield
Zhang Mingyang		32.7%
67.3%
+195
-225
+210
-235
Win
Loss		-1.11261-1.15518-1.11795
Tallison Teixeira
Sergei Pavlovich		24.4%
75.6%
+460
-600
+490
-600
Loss
Win		-0.18924-0.18043-0.27917
Cameron Smotherman
Kai Asakura		28.1%
71.9%
+220
-260
+220
-250
Loss
Win		-0.35955-0.36291-0.32975
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks129-3 (0.750)0-0.53032 
Sportsbooks129-3 (0.750)0-0.53512 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.50847
0.02186
0.02665

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.