UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for April 27, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Alex Perez
Matheus Nicolau 		37.2%
62.8%
+156
-180
+165
-180
Bogdan Guskov
Ryan Spann 		37.1%
62.9%
+185
-205
+180
-210
Karine Silva
Ariane Lipski 		48.8%
51.2%
-150
+131
-145
+125
Mateusz Rebecki
Joel Alvarez 		54.5%
45.5%
-235
+195
-240
+190
Victor Henry
Rani Yahya 		70.8%
29.2%
-500
+400
-500
+400
Uros Medic
Tim Means 		64.8%
35.2%
-285
+250
-260
+220
David Onama
Jonathan Pearce 		35.1%
64.9%
+145
-170
+155
-175
Hayisaer Maheshate
Gabriel Benitez 		65.6%
34.4%
-190
+165
-190
+180
Na Liang
Ivana Petrovic 		30.3%
69.7%
+385
-500
+400
-475
Caio Machado
Don'Tale Mayes 		48.3%
51.7%
-115
+101
-115
+100
Ketlen Souza
Marnic Mann 		68.4%
31.6%
-310
+260
-350
+310
James Llontop
Gabriel Green 		48.4%
51.6%
-101
-115
+105
-125
Jhonata Diniz
Austen Lane 		59.8%
40.2%
-220
+190
-245
+210
Michal Figlak
Austin Hubbard 		63.6%
36.4%
-150
+133
-140
+135
Fights for Apr 26, 2024
Fights for May 4, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Christos Giagos
Ignacio Bahamondes		19.7%
80.3%
+275
-300
+265
-290
Loss
Win		-0.30422-0.31367-0.21924
Charlie Campbell
Trevor Peek		60.1%
39.9%
-160
+140
-155
+150
Win
Loss		-0.51706-0.50566-0.50981
Alex Morono
Court McGee		67.6%
32.4%
-335
+295
-340
+280
Win
Loss		-0.28422-0.29308-0.39196
Lukasz Brzeski
Valter Walker		21.1%
78.9%
+220
-240
+220
-230
Win
Loss		-1.18136-1.17257-1.55675
Germaine de Randamie
Norma Dumont		46.9%
53.1%
+100
-105
+100
-105
Loss
Win		-0.68116-0.68116-0.63354
Victor Hugo
Pedro Falcao		53.2%
46.8%
-150
+130
-140
+130
Win
Loss		-0.54502-0.55696-0.63072
Jean Matsumoto
Dan Argueta		58.6%
41.4%
-152
+135
-160
+145
Win
Loss		-0.53386-0.50878-0.53503
Dylan Budka
Cesar Almeida		51.4%
48.6%
-160
+145
-150
+145
Loss
Win		-0.91937-0.90421-0.72155
Mellisa Dixon
Nora Cornolle		67.7%
32.3%
-400
+330
-350
+320
Loss
Win		-1.49063-1.45081-1.13144
Manon Fiorot
Erin Blanchfield		47.5%
52.5%
+170
-190
+190
-200
Win
Loss		-1.01846-1.07614-0.74440
Joaquin Buckley
Vicente Luque		51.7%
48.3%
+120
-125
+120
-125
Win
Loss		-0.79851-0.79851-0.66022
Bruno Silva
Chris Weidman		64.7%
35.3%
-160
+148
-180
+160
Loss
Win		-0.92669-0.98262-1.04202
Sedriques Dumas
Nursulton Ruziboev		40.7%
59.3%
+220
-250
+210
-220
Loss
Win		-0.36291-0.38472-0.52222
Kyle Nelson
Bill Algeo		26.1%
73.9%
+252
-290
+240
-260
Win
Loss		-1.28576-1.23998-1.34266
Rhys McKee
Chidi Njokuani		35.4%
64.6%
+110
-122
+120
-110
Loss
Win		-0.62407-0.62474-0.43679
Jamall Emmers
Nate Landwehr		60.8%
39.2%
-155
+155
-170
+150
Loss
Win		-0.93609-0.94549-0.93746
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks1310-3 (0.769)0-0.51614 
Sportsbooks1310-3 (0.769)0-0.51486 
DRatings139-4 (0.692)0-0.58706
-0.07093
-0.07220

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.