UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for May 4, 2024

There are no fights on the schedule today.
Fights for May 5, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML
Final
Result
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Rose Namajunas
Amanda Ribas
55.2%
44.8%
-205
+188
-200
+195
Win
Loss
-0.41647-0.41110-0.59365
Justin Tafa
Karl Williams
36.9%
63.1%
+180
-180
+170
-185
Loss
Win
-0.44183-0.45144-0.45989
AJ Dobson
Edmen Shahbazyan
43.1%
56.9%
+170
-186
+170
-185
Loss
Win
-0.45075-0.45144-0.56386
Cameron Saaiman
Payton Talbott
48.0%
52.0%
+130
-150
+140
-140
Loss
Win
-0.54502-0.53900-0.65298
Youssef Zalal
Billy Quarantillo
31.6%
68.4%
-130
+120
-115
+120
Win
Loss
-0.59012-0.61509-1.15261
Luis Pajuelo
Fernando Padilla
43.8%
56.2%
+160
-171
+160
-170
Loss
Win
-0.47594-0.47678-0.57593
Kurt Holobaugh
Trey Ogden
35.9%
64.1%
+110
-125
+130
-130
Loss
Win
-0.61904-0.57054-0.44462
Ricardo Ramos
Julian Erosa
58.2%
41.8%
-168
+155
-170
+160
Loss
Win
-0.95493-0.96964-0.87227
Cody Gibson
Miles Johns
47.9%
52.1%
+128
-145
+135
-150
Loss
Win
-0.55450-0.53604-0.65250
Jarno Errens
Steven Nguyen
42.8%
57.2%
+145
-158
+140
-145
Win
Loss
-0.91644-0.88394-0.84919
Montserrat Rendon
Daria Zheleznyakova
29.5%
70.5%
+260
-290
+255
-260
Loss
Win
-0.31741-0.32932-0.34991
Andre Lima
Igor Severino
55.7%
44.3%
-151
+146
-145
+140
Win
Loss
-0.51624-0.53299-0.58474
Mohammed Usman
Mick Parkin
46.5%
53.5%
+120
-130
+118
-130
Loss
Win
-0.59012-0.59419-0.62560
Marcin Tybura
Tai Tuivasa
48.9%
51.1%
+100
-110
-105
+100
Win
Loss
-0.71668-0.68116-0.71509
Kennedy Nzechukwu
Ovince Saint Preux
76.3%
23.7%
-625
+525
-660
+500
Loss
Win
-1.85438-1.82623-1.43801
Isaac Dulgarian
Christian Rodriguez
57.7%
42.3%
-200
+172
-190
+175
Loss
Win
-1.03437-1.03022-0.86012
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks1311-2 (0.846)0-0.56837 
Sportsbooks1311-2 (0.846)0-0.56627 
DRatings1310-3 (0.769)0-0.64444
-0.07607
-0.07817

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.