UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for July 11, 2026

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Max Holloway
Conor McGregor 		65.9%
34.1%
-300
+250
-325
+270
Paddy Pimblett
Benoit Saint Denis 		44.0%
56.0%
+150
-175
+150
-170
Mario Bautista
Cory Sandhagen 		35.8%
64.2%
+130
-150
+130
-150
Lone'er Kavanagh
Brandon Royval 		58.3%
41.7%
-180
+155
-185
+165
Fights for Jun 14, 2026
Fights for Jul 12, 2026

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Deiveson Figueiredo
Song Yadong		26.0%
74.0%
+425
-600
+470
-600
Loss
Win		-0.20067-0.18621-0.30097
Alonzo Menifield
Zhang Mingyang		32.7%
67.3%
+195
-225
+210
-235
Win
Loss		-1.11261-1.15518-1.11795
Tallison Teixeira
Sergei Pavlovich		24.4%
75.6%
+460
-600
+490
-600
Loss
Win		-0.18924-0.18043-0.27917
Cameron Smotherman
Kai Asakura		28.1%
71.9%
+220
-260
+220
-250
Loss
Win		-0.35955-0.36291-0.32975
Carlston Harris
Jake Matthews		24.4%
75.6%
+500
-550
+425
-450
Loss
Win		-0.17980-0.20929-0.27961
Felipe Colares
Yi Sak Lee		54.5%
45.5%
-185
+163
-170
+170
Win
Loss		-0.46107-0.46262-0.60655
Jose Henrique
Ding Meng		47.2%
52.8%
+102
-112
+105
-115
Win
Loss		-0.72619-0.74028-0.75018
Cody Haddon
Aori Qileng		72.7%
27.3%
-400
+310
-380
+330
Win
Loss		-0.26610-0.25755-0.31923
Luis Gurule
Rei Tsuruya		25.2%
74.8%
+300
-380
+335
-330
Loss
Win		-0.27444-0.26203-0.29014
Xiong Jingnan
Angela Hill		58.2%
41.8%
-183
+170
-170
+160
Loss
Win		-1.01011-0.96964-0.87287
Rodrigo Vera
Zhu Kangjie		51.9%
48.1%
-105
-108
-105
-110
Win
Loss		-0.69999-0.70441-0.65539
Jaqualine Amorim
Loma Lookboonmee		52.3%
47.7%
-133
+117
-130
+120
Win
Loss		-0.59184-0.59012-0.64726
Victor Martinez
Rong Zhu		27.8%
72.2%
+1600
-4000

Loss
Win		-0.05854-0.32640
Melquizael Costa
Arnold Allen		40.1%
59.9%
-105
-110
+100
-112
Loss
Win		-0.68201-0.66600-0.51301
Daniel Santos
Dooho Choi		57.6%
42.4%
-155
+145
-160
+150
Loss
Win		-0.91198-0.93156-0.85838
Juan Diaz
Malcolm Wellmaker		24.6%
75.4%
+205
-225
+200
-220
Win
Loss		-1.13513-1.11923-1.40177
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.50597 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.50672 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53742
-0.03146
-0.03070

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.