2025-2026 Preseason CFB Conference Projections

As anticipation builds for the 2025-2026 FBS college football season, fans across the nation are once again filled with hope, speculation, and excitement. In this post, we’ll dive deep into our preseason projections for each major conference. Let’s get started by looking at how each conference stacks up heading into the fall and which teams are best positioned to shine on the road to the College Football Playoff.

1. Southeastern Conference (SEC)

The SEC preseason projections show Texas and Georgia narrowly leading the pack, both expected to finish with over six conference wins and the best scoring margins. Alabama is just behind, maintaining its usual strong outlook. LSU, Ole Miss, and Florida are projected to be solid contenders but with defenses that may give up more points, potentially leading to closer games. Teams like Tennessee, Auburn, and Texas A&M are clustered near the middle of the standings, while Oklahoma and Missouri hover around a .500 record. At the bottom, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Mississippi State face the toughest outlooks, with low win totals and significant scoring deficits predicted. Overall, the SEC looks top-heavy once again, with Texas, Georgia, and Alabama as the frontrunners entering the season.

2. Big 12 Conference

Big 12 projections for the upcoming season show Kansas State and Texas Tech narrowly leading the way, with each forecasted for around six conference wins and strong offensive numbers. Arizona State and Utah round out a competitive top four, with all expected to finish above .500 in league play. The middle of the conference appears crowded, as teams like Iowa State, Baylor, TCU, and Kansas are projected to be in the mix, separated by only a game or so in predicted win totals. Further down, Cincinnati, BYU, and Houston could see challenges reaching break-even, and teams such as Arizona, West Virginia, Colorado, UCF, and Oklahoma State are expected to finish near the bottom, facing negative scoring margins and tough sledding in conference play. Overall, the Big 12 looks tight at the top with much parity throughout the middle, promising a wide-open race as the season gets underway.

3. Big Ten Conference

The Big Ten preseason outlook highlights Ohio State and Penn State as the clear leaders, both projected to surpass seven conference wins with commanding point differentials. Oregon and Michigan are close contenders, rounding out a strong top four expected to vie for the championship. The middle of the league features Indiana, USC, Illinois, and Nebraska, all forecasted to finish above or near .500. Programs like Washington and Iowa are predicted to be competitive but may struggle to break into the league’s upper tier. The lower half includes teams such as UCLA, Wisconsin, Rutgers, and Michigan State, all facing tougher predictions. At the bottom, Northwestern, Maryland, and Purdue appear set for challenging seasons, with low win totals and significant scoring deficits projected. Overall, the Big Ten looks particularly top-heavy this year, with a small group of teams poised to dominate conference play.

4. Pac-12 Conference

With just Washington State and Oregon State remaining in the Pac-12, preseason projections show both teams with abbreviated schedules—each expected to play only one or two conference games and no points data available. As a result, neither program is positioned for significant conference play, underscoring the uncertainty and ongoing transition facing the conference this season.

5. Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)

The ACC preseason projections peg Clemson as the clear frontrunner, projected to top the conference with 6.7 wins while pairing a potent offense and strong defense. Miami is not far behind, nearly matching Clemson’s offensive output but expected to give up a few more points per game. SMU and Louisville round out the top four, each forecasted to finish solidly above .500 but trailing the top two by more than a game. The middle tier—featuring Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Florida State—should be tightly contested, as their predicted win totals cluster just above four. Beyond that, most teams are expected to hover around the break-even mark or below, with Stanford and Wake Forest predicted to struggle the most. Ultimately, the league looks competitive through its midsection, but Clemson and Miami enter the season with a clear edge over the rest of the field.

6. American Athletic Conference (ACC)

Tulane leads the preseason projections in the American Athletic Conference, forecasted to top the league with over six wins and a strong scoring margin. Memphis and UT San Antonio appear close behind, both expected to contend thanks to efficient offenses and comparable defensive output. Navy, South Florida, and Army round out a competitive top six, all likely to finish with winning conference records. The middle of the standings features East Carolina and North Texas, projected around .500, while the remainder of the conference—Florida Atlantic, UAB, Charlotte, Rice, Tulsa, and Temple—faces steeper climbs, each predicted to struggle both offensively and defensively. All told, the American looks to have a defined group of contenders at the top, with little separating several teams in pursuit of a championship run.

7. Sun Belt Conference

The Sun Belt is the only conference left in FBS to break their conference up into two divisions.

Sun Belt East Division

James Madison enters the Sun Belt East as the preseason favorite, projected to finish comfortably at the top with over six conference wins and the division’s highest scoring margin. Georgia Southern is next in line, expected to post a solid record but with a more average defensive outlook. Teams such as Old Dominion and Coastal Carolina are bunched in the middle, forecasted around the .500 mark and showing only marginal differences between points scored and allowed. Appalachian State finds itself in a similar spot but faces a slightly tougher defensive projection. Rounding out the division, Marshall and Georgia State are predicted to struggle, each with fewer than three wins and a notable deficit between points scored and allowed. Overall, the Sun Belt East shapes up as James Madison’s to lose, with the rest of the division tightly clustered behind.

Sun Belt West Division

exas State is pegged as the preseason favorite in the Sun Belt West, projected to lead the division with just over five wins and a solid offensive output. Louisiana and South Alabama are close behind, each expected to remain competitive thanks to efficient scoring and similar defensive stats. Troy sits in the middle of the pack, forecasted for a roughly even conference record and near parity between points scored and allowed. On the lower end, Arkansas State, Southern Miss, and ULM are predicted to face tough seasons, with each expected to finish well below .500 and to allow significantly more points than they score. Overall, Texas State and Louisiana headline a closely contested top tier, but the division’s lower half could see teams battling just to stay out of the cellar.

8. Mountain West Conference (MWC)

Boise State enters the Mountain West season as the overwhelming favorite, projected to dominate with nearly 7.5 conference wins and a standout scoring margin, averaging almost 40 points per game while allowing just 16.9. UNLV and San Jose State make up the next tier, both forecasted to post winning records but still several games back from Boise in projected conference wins and scoring differentials. Fresno State and Air Force are expected to contend for upper-half finishes, while Colorado State hovers closer to the middle with an even split between points scored and allowed. The rest of the league—Wyoming, San Diego State, Hawaii, Utah State, Nevada, and New Mexico—faces steeper challenges, each predicted to finish below .500 and to allow more points than they score, highlighting the clear gap between the top and bottom of the conference this year.

9. FBS Independants

Of the two independents, we expect Notre Dame to outperform everyone with an expected ten wins and a good shot at making the CFP Playoff.

10. Conference USA (CUSA)

Liberty stands out as the dominant preseason favorite in Conference USA, projected to top the conference by a wide margin with nearly seven wins and the league’s strongest scoring differential. Western Kentucky is the primary challenger, forecasted to finish a game behind with a solid offense but a less commanding defense. The middle of the conference is crowded, as Louisiana Tech, Jacksonville State, UTEP, Florida International, and Sam Houston State are all expected to hover around .500 with similar points scored and allowed. Missouri State, Delaware, and Middle Tennessee round out the next group, each facing slight deficits in scoring margins. Bringing up the rear, New Mexico State and Kennesaw are projected to struggle the most, both in terms of win totals and defensive output. Overall, Liberty appears well-positioned to repeat as league champion, with the bulk of the conference tightly bunched in pursuit.

11. Mid-American Conference (MAC)

oledo is slotted as the clear favorite in the MAC preseason projections, expected to lead the conference with over six wins and a sizable advantage in both scoring and defense. Ohio follows closely behind, projected to earn six wins and also sporting a strong point differential. Buffalo and Miami (OH) round out the top tier, each predicted to finish above .500 and maintain efficient defensive numbers. The middle of the league—featuring Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, and Central Michigan—clusters just around or slightly below the break-even mark, with scoring outputs trailing off. Further down, Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, and Ball State are forecasted to face more challenges, boasting losing records and negative scoring margins. Rounding out the bottom are Akron, Massachusetts, and Kent State, all of whom are predicted to struggle both offensively and defensively, with Kent edging in as the projected cellar dweller. Overall, Toledo and Ohio set the pace in a league where margins are often thin but the favorites enter with a clear statistical edge.