Bracketology


Tournament Bracket

Welcome to our Bracketology page! Here we plan to prep you for everything that will take place during March Madness! To come up with our bracketology predictions, we use a combination of variables including our own NCAA college basketball ratings, RPI, strength of schedule (SOS), and few other factors to come up with the Bracket Rating. As is customary with the NCAA tournament, we also include the automatic qualifiers which are the champions from the conference tournaments. If the conference champion hasn’t yet been determined, then the highest rated team is predicted to be the champion. All of the factors that we use are key indicators that are very good predictors of which teams will make the final tournament.

Note that below there are 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the winners of each conference are automatically included in the tournament. Because there are four play-in games, there are 2 seed groups that will have more than 4 teams.

Early in the season (pre-January) a lot of the teams may appear to have some strange seedings. Before teams get into conference play, there is a lot of projection that needs to be done to seed the teams. As we get into January and February, the projections are slowly worked out of the equation and only actual results are used.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference.
# denotes first round play-in game

Final: Updated on 2/5/2022 @ 7:50am ET.

Bracketology – NCAA Tournament – Bubble Teams

Last Four In First Four Out Next Four Out
Michigan St
Virginia Tech
Texas A&M
New Mexico
Mississippi St
Memphis
Wisconsin
Florida
Northwestern
Penn St
Arizona St
Seton Hall

The team listed at the top of the “Last Four In” is the most vulnerable to miss the tournament.

Bracketology – 2023 NCAA Tournament Seeding Predictions

Projected Seed Team Conf Record Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Purdue
B10*
22-2
10.08
0.967 (31)
Alabama
SEC*
20-3
9.635
1.186 (8)
Houston
AAC*
21-2
9.629
0.532 (92)
Kansas
B12*
18-5
9.290
1.462 (1)
2 Seeds
Tennessee
SEC
19-4
9.013
0.891 (42)
Texas
B12
19-4
8.481
1.093 (16)
Arizona
P12*
21-3
8.371
0.873 (45)
UCLA
P12
19-4
8.101
1.006 (24)
3 Seeds
Baylor
B12
17-6
7.708
1.195 (7)
Marquette
BE*
19-5
7.115
0.906 (38)
Xavier
BE
19-5
7.084
1.160 (9)
Kansas St
B12
18-5
6.931
1.113 (14)
4 Seeds
Virginia
ACC*
17-4
6.855
0.890 (43)
Connecticut
BE
18-6
6.838
0.823 (54)
Iowa St
B12
16-6
6.702
1.091 (18)
Gonzaga
WCC*
19-5
6.675
1.082 (19)
5 Seeds
TCU
B12
17-6
6.436
0.743 (63)
St Mary’s CA
WCC
20-4
6.412
0.906 (37)
Rutgers
B10
16-7
6.313
0.788 (57)
Duke
ACC
17-6
6.285
0.983 (27)
6 Seeds
San Diego St
MWC*
18-5
6.281
0.978 (29)
Indiana
B10
16-7
6.173
0.872 (46)
Illinois
B10
16-7
6.103
0.783 (58)
Auburn
SEC
17-6
5.812
0.902 (39)
7 Seeds
Miami FL
ACC
18-5
5.770
0.653 (78)
Maryland
B10
16-7
5.633
0.932 (35)
Creighton
BE
15-8
5.618
1.156 (10)
West Virginia
B12
14-9
5.397
1.244 (4)
8 Seeds
Iowa
B10
15-8
5.379
1.026 (22)
NC State
ACC
19-5
5.267
0.586 (86)
North Carolina
ACC
15-8
5.265
1.080 (20)
Providence
BE
17-6
5.221
0.679 (72)
9 Seeds
Arkansas
SEC
16-7
5.142
0.974 (30)
Kentucky
SEC
16-7
4.956
0.823 (53)
FL Atlantic
CUSA*
22-2
4.848
0.134 (126)
USC
P12
17-6
4.755
0.896 (40)
10 Seeds
Boise St
MWC
18-6
4.642
0.678 (74)
Pittsburgh
ACC
16-7
4.630
0.696 (70)
Missouri
SEC
17-6
4.619
0.664 (77)
Clemson
ACC
18-6
4.551
0.523 (94)
11 Seeds
Utah St
MWC
19-5
4.530
0.739 (65)
Nevada
MWC
18-6
4.524
0.846 (50)
New Mexico
MWC#
19-4
4.401
0.521 (95)
Texas A&M
SEC#
16-7
4.384
0.646 (79)
Virginia Tech
ACC#
14-9
4.368
0.860 (48)
Michigan St
Big Ten#
14-9
4.143
1.399 (2)
12 Seeds
Oral Roberts
SL*
21-4
3.238
-0.12 (186)
Liberty
ASC*
19-6
3.057
-0.21 (210)
VCU
A10*
18-6
2.964
0.223 (110)
Col Charleston
CAA*
22-3
2.498
-0.24 (226)
13 Seeds
Kent
MAC*
18-5
2.359
-0.08 (179)
Drake
MVC*
19-6
1.865
-0.10 (185)
Iona
MAAC*
15-7
1.807
-0.05 (167)
Southern Miss
SBC*
21-4
1.805
-0.33 (253)
14 Seeds
Utah Valley
WAC*
18-6
1.771
0.050 (143)
Yale
Ivy*
16-6
1.565
-0.26 (231)
Furman
SC*
19-6
1.502
-0.32 (249)
UC Santa Barbara
BWC*
18-4
1.195
-0.53 (300)
15 Seeds
Youngstown St
HL*
19-6
-0.06
-0.68 (334)
Montana St
BSC*
17-8
-0.19
-0.22 (219)
Colgate
PL*
17-8
-0.34
-0.60 (323)
MA Lowell
AEC*
19-6
-0.97
-1.01 (358)
16 Seeds
UNC Asheville
BSo*
18-7
-1.32
-0.57 (314)
Norfolk St
MEAC*
16-7
-1.84
-0.46 (282)
E Kentucky
OVC*#
16-9
-2.68
-0.07 (172)
Northwestern LA
SLC*#
16-8
-2.96
-0.61 (326)
Grambling
SWAC*#
14-8
-3.41
-0.76 (343)
Wagner
NEC*#
12-9
-6.31
-1.15 (360)

There are currently eleven teams that are ineligible for the 2023 tournament due to various reasons. Bellarmine, Lindenwood, Merrimack, Queens, St. Thomas, Southern Indiana, Stonehill, Tarleton State, Texas A&M-Commerce, UC San Diego, Utah Tech .

Bracketology – 2023 NIT Tournament Bracket Predictions

For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament.

All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT). It is important to note that early predictions will be flawed because of this rule. Typically, there are about seven to nine teams that win their conference in the regular season but don’t win their conference tournament and end up in the NIT. So, in early predictions, if your team is a seven or eight seed, then it is likely they won’t make the tournament because of these auto qualifiers.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference in the regular season.

Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Mississippi St
SEC
15-8
4.141
0.721 (68)
Memphis
AAC
17-6
4.050
0.603 (84)
Wisconsin
B10
13-8
4.046
1.091 (17)
Florida
SEC
13-10
4.031
1.020 (23)
2 Seeds
Northwestern
B10
15-7
3.941
0.741 (64)
Penn St
B10
14-8
3.821
0.938 (34)
Arizona St
P12
16-8
3.636
0.750 (62)
Seton Hall
BE
14-9
3.588
1.136 (11)
3 Seeds
Oklahoma
B12
12-11
3.503
1.325 (3)
Ohio St
B10
11-11
3.302
0.893 (41)
Oregon
P12
14-10
3.297
1.135 (12)
Utah
P12
15-9
3.129
0.507 (97)
4 Seeds
Michigan
B10
12-10
3.000
0.946 (33)
North Texas
CUSA
19-5
2.992
0.183 (118)
Wake Forest
ACC
15-9
2.990
0.770 (59)
Cincinnati
AAC
16-8
2.821
0.518 (96)
5 Seeds
UAB
CUSA
17-7
2.710
0.074 (140)
St Louis
A10
15-8
2.109
0.447 (99)
Santa Clara
WCC
17-8
2.104
0.789 (56)
Texas Tech
B12
12-11
2.057
0.820 (55)
6 Seeds
Dayton
A10
15-9
2.037
0.222 (111)
Tulane
AAC
15-7
2.029
0.185 (115)
UCF
AAC
13-9
1.939
0.751 (61)
UNLV
MWC
15-8
1.807
0.580 (87)
7 Seeds
St John’s
BE
14-10
1.798
0.702 (69)
Marshall
SBC
19-6
1.777
-0.32 (252)
BYU
WCC
16-10
1.747
0.638 (81)
Louisiana
SBC
20-4
1.628
-0.18 (201)
8 Seeds
Sam Houston St
WAC
17-6
1.575
0.154 (124)
Bradley
MVC
17-8
1.494
-0.02 (158)
Toledo
MAC
17-6
1.359
-0.31 (243)
Akron
MAC
17-6
1.289
-0.21 (214)