Bracketology


Welcome to the Donchess Inference Index Bracketology page! Here, we will be updating our bracketology predictions as we get closer to March Madness. To come up with our bracketology predictions, we used the NCAA college basketball DII ratings as a base seeding of the teams and used a formula adding strength of schedule (SOS) to come up with the Bracket Rating. As is customary with the NCAA tournament, we also include the automatic qualifiers which are the champions from the conference tournaments. If the conference champion hasn’t yet been determined, then the highest rated team is predicted to be the champion. The DII takes into account a variety of key indicators that are very good predictors of which teams will make the final tournament.

Note that below there are 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the winners of each conference are automatically included in the tournament. Because there are four play-in games, there are 2 seed groups that will have more than 4 teams.

Early in the season (pre-January) a lot of the teams may appear to have some strange seedings. Before teams get into conference play, there is a lot of projection that needs to be done to seed the teams. Once January and February comes along the projections are slowly worked out of the equation and only actual results are used.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference.
# denotes first round play-in game

Updated on 11/7/2017.

Bracketology – NCAA Tournament – On the Bubble Teams

Last Four In First Four Out Next Four Out
Marquette
Dayton
Virginia Tech
Indiana
Oklahoma St
Rhode Island
Wake Forest
Kansas St
Syracuse
Georgia
Illinois
Providence


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Bracketology – 2017 NCAA Tournament Predictions

Projected Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Duke
ACC*
0-0
14.43
0 (1)
Kentucky
SEC*
0-0
12.37
0 (1)
Arizona
P12*
0-0
11.76
0 (1)
Michigan St
B10*
0-0
10.68
0 (1)
2 Seeds
Kansas
B12*
0-0
9.820
0 (1)
North Carolina
ACC
0-0
9.676
0 (1)
Villanova
BE*
0-0
8.106
0 (1)
Louisville
ACC
0-0
8.038
0 (1)
3 Seeds
Wichita St
MVC*
0-0
7.314
0 (1)
Florida
SEC
0-0
7.257
0 (1)
UCLA
P12
0-0
6.502
0 (1)
Gonzaga
WCC*
0-0
6.443
0 (1)
4 Seeds
USC
P12
0-0
6.090
0 (1)
Oregon
P12
0-0
5.648
0 (1)
Baylor
B12
0-0
5.262
0 (1)
Florida St
ACC
0-0
5.072
0 (1)
5 Seeds
Butler
BE
0-0
4.993
0 (1)
Virginia
ACC
0-0
4.993
0 (1)
Purdue
B10
0-0
4.985
0 (1)
Michigan
B10
0-0
4.980
0 (1)
6 Seeds
Minnesota
B10
0-0
4.953
0 (1)
St Mary’s CA
WCC
0-0
4.783
0 (1)
West Virginia
B12
0-0
4.699
0 (1)
Cincinnati
AAC*
0-0
4.648
0 (1)
7 Seeds
Notre Dame
ACC
0-0
4.546
0 (1)
SMU
AAC
0-0
4.460
0 (1)
Wisconsin
B10
0-0
4.156
0 (1)
Iowa St
B12
0-0
3.930
0 (1)
8 Seeds
Miami FL
ACC
0-0
3.750
0 (1)
Xavier
BE
0-0
3.616
0 (1)
Creighton
BE
0-0
3.542
0 (1)
Texas
B12
0-0
3.487
0 (1)
9 Seeds
Arkansas
SEC
0-0
3.182
0 (1)
Maryland
B10
0-0
3.181
0 (1)
Vanderbilt
SEC
0-0
3.047
0 (1)
VA Commonwealth
A10*
0-0
3.036
0 (1)
10 Seeds
Seton Hall
BE
0-0
2.945
0 (1)
South Carolina
SEC
0-0
2.812
0 (1)
Missouri
SEC
0-0
2.773
0 (1)
TCU
B12
0-0
2.703
0 (1)
11 Seeds
Alabama
SEC
0-0
2.526
0 (1)
Northwestern
B10
0-0
2.361
0 (1)
Indiana
B10#
0-0
2.353
0 (1)
Virginia Tech
ACC#
0-0
2.339
0 (1)
12 Seeds
Dayton
A10#
0-0
2.148
0 (1)
Marquette
BE#
0-0
2.026
0 (1)
Nevada
MWC*
0-0
1.158
0 (1)
MTSU
CUSA*
0-0
1.138
0 (1)
UNC Wilmington
CAA*
0-0
1.110
0 (1)
UT Arlington
SBC*
0-0
0.489
0 (1)
13 Seeds
Vermont
AEC*
0-0
0.488
0 (1)
Princeton
Ivy*
0-0
0.227
0 (1)
Monmouth NJ
MAAC*
0-0
0.167
0 (1)
ETSU
SC*
0-0
0.082
0 (1)
14 Seeds
New Mexico St
WAC*
0-0
-0.16
0 (1)
Belmont
OVC*
0-0
-0.26
0 (1)
Bucknell
PL*
0-0
-0.31
0 (1)
Akron
MAC*
0-0
-0.51
0 (1)
15 Seeds
Valparaiso
HL*
0-0
-0.91
0 (1)
Winthrop
BSo*
0-0
-0.94
0 (1)
FL Gulf Coast
ASC*
0-0
-1.24
0 (1)
South Dakota
SL*
0-0
-2.05
0 (1)
16 Seeds
UC Irvine
BWC*
0-0
-2.56
0 (1)
North Dakota
BSC*
0-0
-2.67
0 (1)
TX Southern
SWAC*#
0-0
-2.67
0 (1)
TAM C. Christi
SLC*#
0-0
-2.75
0 (1)
Mt St Mary’s
NEC*#
0-0
-3.38
0 (1)
NC Central
MEAC*#
0-0
-3.82
0 (1)

To see how the DII bracketology compares to other bracketologists see: The Bracket Project


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Bracketology – 2017 NIT Tournament Predictions

For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament.

All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT). It is important to note that early predictions will be flawed because of this rule. Typically, there are about seven to nine teams that win their conference in the regular season but don’t win their conference tournament and end up in the NIT. So, in early predictions, if your team is a seven or eight seed, then it is likely they won’t make the tournament because of these auto qualifiers.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference in the regular season.

Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Oklahoma St
B12
0-0
1.972
0 (1)
Rhode Island
A10
0-0
1.894
0 (1)
Wake Forest
ACC
0-0
1.793
0 (1)
Kansas St
B12
0-0
1.713
0 (1)
2 Seeds
Syracuse
ACC
0-0
1.615
0 (1)
Georgia
SEC
0-0
1.605
0 (1)
Illinois
B10
0-0
1.530
0 (1)
Providence
BE
0-0
1.351
0 (1)
3 Seeds
California
P12
0-0
1.136
0 (1)
Utah
P12
0-0
0.983
0 (1)
Texas A&M
SEC
0-0
0.933
0 (1)
Clemson
ACC
0-0
0.926
0 (1)
4 Seeds
Illinois St
MVC
0-0
0.909
0 (1)
Auburn
SEC
0-0
0.829
0 (1)
Connecticut
AAC
0-0
0.736
0 (1)
Iowa
B10
0-0
0.703
0 (1)
5 Seeds
San Diego St
MWC
0-0
0.591
0 (1)
Mississippi
SEC
0-0
0.583
0 (1)
Tennessee
SEC
0-0
0.549
0 (1)
BYU
WCC
0-0
0.490
0 (1)
6 Seeds
Oklahoma
B12
0-0
0.455
0 (1)
Georgetown
BE
0-0
0.436
0 (1)
Pittsburgh
ACC
0-0
0.294
0 (1)
Ohio St
B10
0-0
0.188
0 (1)
7 Seeds
Houston
AAC
0-0
0.112
0 (1)
Colorado St
MWC
0-0
0.051
0 (1)
Colorado
P12
0-0
0.012
0 (1)
Texas Tech
B12
0-0
-0.01
0 (1)
8 Seeds
Stanford
P12
0-0
-0.04
0 (1)
Boise St
MWC
0-0
-0.12
0 (1)
Penn St
B10
0-0
-0.15
0 (1)
UCF
AAC
0-0
-0.28
0 (1)