Bracketology


Tournament Bracket

Welcome to our Bracketology page! Here we plan to prep you for everything that will take place during March Madness! To come up with our bracketology predictions, we use a combination of variables including our own NCAA college basketball ratings, RPI, strength of schedule (SOS), and few other factors to come up with the Bracket Rating. As is customary with the NCAA tournament, we also include the automatic qualifiers which are the champions from the conference tournaments. If the conference champion hasn’t yet been determined, then the highest rated team is predicted to be the champion. All of the factors that we use are key indicators that are very good predictors of which teams will make the final tournament.

Note that below there are 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the winners of each conference are automatically included in the tournament. Because there are four play-in games, there are 2 seed groups that will have more than 4 teams.

Early in the season (pre-January) a lot of the teams may appear to have some strange seedings. Before teams get into conference play, there is a lot of projection that needs to be done to seed the teams. As we get into January and February, the projections are slowly worked out of the equation and only actual results are used.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference.
# denotes first round play-in game

Updated on 3/14/2021 @ 4:15pm ET.

Bracketology – NCAA Tournament – Bubble Teams

Last Four In First Four Out Next Four Out
Utah St
Wichita St
Louisville
Drake
Syracuse
Colorado St
Mississippi
St Louis
Boise St
Xavier
Memphis
Duke

The team listed at the top of the “Last Four In” is the most vulnerable to miss the tournament.

Bracketology – 2021 NCAA Tournament Seeding Predictions

Projected Seed Team Conf Record Actual Seed SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Gonzaga
WCC*
26-0
NCAA – 1
0.606 (95)
Baylor
B12
22-2
NCAA – 1
0.825 (76)
Michigan
B10
20-4
NCAA – 1
1.360 (14)
Illinois
B10*
23-6
NCAA – 1
1.390 (10)
2 Seeds
Alabama
SEC*
24-6
NCAA – 2
1.175 (28)
Ohio St
B10
21-9
NCAA – 2
1.485 (5)
Iowa
B10
21-8
NCAA – 2
1.273 (21)
Houston
AAC*
24-3
NCAA – 2
0.653 (89)
3 Seeds
Texas
B12*
19-7
NCAA – 3
1.303 (19)
Oklahoma St
B12
20-8
NCAA – 4
1.371 (12)
Arkansas
SEC
22-6
NCAA – 3
0.858 (71)
Kansas
B12
20-8
NCAA – 3
1.352 (16)
4 Seeds
West Virginia
B12
18-9
NCAA – 3
1.424 (8)
Florida St
ACC
16-6
NCAA – 4
1.042 (43)
Virginia
ACC
18-6
NCAA – 4
0.984 (52)
Purdue
B10
18-9
NCAA – 4
1.378 (11)
5 Seeds
Villanova
BE
16-6
NCAA – 5
1.147 (32)
Tennessee
SEC
18-8
NCAA – 5
1.011 (47)
Creighton
BE
20-8
NCAA – 5
1.011 (48)
USC
P12
22-7
NCAA – 6
0.957 (58)
6 Seeds
Colorado
P12
22-8
NCAA – 5
0.859 (70)
Texas Tech
B12
17-10
NCAA – 6
0.957 (59)
Oregon
P12
20-6
NCAA – 7
0.843 (74)
San Diego St
MWC*
23-4
NCAA – 6
0.483 (105)
7 Seeds
LSU
SEC
18-9
NCAA – 8
1.028 (45)
BYU
WCC
20-6
NCAA – 6
0.905 (65)
Clemson
ACC
16-7
NCAA – 7
1.120 (35)
Wisconsin
B10
17-12
NCAA – 9
1.335 (18)
8 Seeds
Missouri
SEC
16-9
NCAA – 9
1.269 (22)
Oklahoma
B12
15-10
NCAA – 8
1.092 (38)
Loyola-Chicago
MVC*
24-4
NCAA – 8
-0.03 (162)
North Carolina
ACC
18-10
NCAA – 8
1.121 (34)
9 Seeds
Virginia Tech
ACC
15-6
NCAA – 10
0.777 (83)
Connecticut
BE
15-7
NCAA – 7
1.080 (41)
Florida
SEC
14-9
NCAA – 7
1.169 (29)
St Bonaventure
A10*
16-4
NCAA – 9
0.579 (98)
10 Seeds
Georgia Tech
ACC*
17-8
NCAA – 9
0.965 (56)
Rutgers
B10
15-11
NCAA – 10
1.486 (4)
VCU
A10
19-7
NCAA – 10
0.677 (88)
Maryland
B10
16-13
NCAA – 10
1.454 (7)
11 Seeds
UCLA
P12
17-9
4.168
1.003 (49)
Michigan St
B10
15-12
3.994
1.346 (17)
Drake
MVC#
25-4
3.988
-0.20 (199)
Louisville
ACC#
13-7
3.869
1.109 (36)
Wichita St
AAC#
16-5
3.851
0.899 (66)
Utah St
MWC#
20-8
3.725
0.318 (117)
12 Seeds
Georgetown
BE*
13-12
3.547
1.291 (20)
Oregon St
P12*
17-12
2.828
0.975 (53)
Winthrop
BSo*
23-1
2.384
-0.98 (345)
UC Santa Barbara
BWC*
22-4
2.324
-0.20 (197)
13 Seeds
North Texas
CUSA*
17-9
NCAA – 13
0.092 (135)
Liberty
ASC*
23-5
NCAA – 13
-0.61 (296)
Ohio
MAC*
16-7
NCAA – 13
-0.16 (187)
UNC Greensboro
SC*
21-8
NCAA – 13
-0.19 (195)
14 Seeds
Abilene Chr
SLC*
23-4
NCAA – 14
-0.98 (346)
Colgate
PL*
14-1
NCAA – 14
0.032 (148)
E Washington
BSC*
16-7
NCAA – 14
-0.50 (270)
Morehead St
OVC*
23-7
NCAA – 14
-0.46 (258)
15 Seeds
Grand Canyon
WAC*
17-6
NCAA – 15
-0.56 (281)
Cleveland St
HL*
19-7
NCAA – 15
-0.48 (266)
Drexel
CAA*
12-7
NCAA – 16
-0.30 (221)
Iona
MAAC*
12-5
NCAA – 15
-0.47 (261)
16 Seeds
Oral Roberts
SL*
16-10
NCAA – 15
-0.34 (228)
Mt St Mary’s
NEC*
12-10
NCAA – 16
-0.28 (215)
Hartford
AEC*#
15-8
NCAA – 16
-0.56 (283)
Norfolk St
MEAC*#
16-7
NCAA – 16
-0.79 (331)
Appalachian St
SBC*#
17-11
NCAA – 16
-0.19 (194)
TX Southern
SWAC*#
16-8
NCAA – 16
-0.82 (333)

There are currently nine teams that are ineligible for the 2021 tournament due to various reasons. Auburn, Arizona, Dixie State, California Baptist, Merrimack, Tarleton State, UC San Diego and North Alabama. Also note that the Ivy League canceled their season. This means that there is one extra at-large bid available this year.

Bracketology – 2021 NIT Tournament Bracket Predictions

For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament (sixteen for the 2021 season).

All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT). It is important to note that early predictions will be flawed because of this rule. Typically, there are about seven to nine teams that win their conference in the regular season but don’t win their conference tournament and end up in the NIT. So, in early predictions, if your team is a seven or eight seed, then it is likely they won’t make the tournament because of these auto qualifiers.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference in the regular season. (For the 2021 season, there will be no auto-qualifiers)

Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Syracuse
ACC
16-9
NCAA – 11
0.963 (57)
Colorado St
MWC
18-6
NIT – 1
0.232 (125)
Mississippi
SEC
16-11
NIT – 1
0.766 (85)
St Louis
A10
14-6
NIT – 1
0.283 (119)
2 Seeds
Boise St
MWC
18-8
NIT – 2
0.321 (116)
Xavier
BE
13-8
Out
0.891 (68)
Memphis
AAC
16-8
NIT – 1
0.576 (99)
Duke
ACC
13-11
Out
1.066 (42)
3 Seeds
Seton Hall
BE
14-13
Out
1.215 (25)
NC State
ACC
13-10
NIT – 3
0.753 (86)
WKU
CUSA*
20-7
NIT – 3
0.157 (131)
Penn St
B10
11-14
Out
1.611 (1)
4 Seeds
St John’s
BE
16-11
Out
0.945 (62)
St Mary’s CA
WCC
14-9
NIT – 2
0.917 (63)
Toledo
MAC*
21-8
NIT – 3
-0.18 (193)
Belmont
OVC*
26-4
Out
-0.84 (336)
First Four Out
SMU
AAC
11-5
NIT – 3
0.490 (104)
Louisiana Tech
CUSA
21-7
NIT – 4
-0.06 (169)
Davidson
A10
13-8
NIT – 2
0.518 (102)
Richmond
A10
13-8
NIT – 2
0.645 (91)