Bracketology


Tournament Bracket

Welcome to our Bracketology page! Here we plan to prep you for everything that will take place during March Madness! To come up with our bracketology predictions, we use a combination of variables including our own NCAA college basketball ratings, RPI, strength of schedule (SOS), and few other factors to come up with the Bracket Rating. As is customary with the NCAA tournament, we also include the automatic qualifiers which are the champions from the conference tournaments. If the conference champion hasn’t yet been determined, then the highest rated team is predicted to be the champion. All of the factors that we use are key indicators that are very good predictors of which teams will make the final tournament.

Note that below there are 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the winners of each conference are automatically included in the tournament. Because there are four play-in games, there are 2 seed groups that will have more than 4 teams.

Early in the season (pre-January) a lot of the teams may appear to have some strange seedings. Before teams get into conference play, there is a lot of projection that needs to be done to seed the teams. As we get into January and February, the projections are slowly worked out of the equation and only actual results are used.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference.
# denotes first round play-in game

Updated on 1/14/2020 @ 10:00am ET.

Bracketology – NCAA Tournament – Bubble Teams

Last Four In First Four Out Next Four Out
Seton Hall
BYU
Syracuse
Richmond
Boise St
SMU
St Bonaventure
VCU
Wichita St
St Mary’s CA
Utah St
Georgia Tech

The team listed at the top of the “Last Four In” is the most vulnerable to miss the tournament.

Bracketology – 2021 NCAA Tournament Seeding Predictions

Projected Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Gonzaga
WCC*
12-0
10.95
0.281 (132)
Michigan
B10*
11-0
10.21
1.119 (30)
Baylor
B12*
11-0
10.16
-0.12 (220)
Villanova
BE*
8-1
9.098
0.900 (55)
2 Seeds
Iowa
B10
11-2
9.008
1.008 (44)
Texas
B12
10-2
8.957
1.457 (8)
Kansas
B12
9-3
8.426
1.680 (3)
Tennessee
SEC*
9-1
8.188
0.690 (74)
3 Seeds
Houston
AAC*
10-1
7.949
0.773 (65)
Wisconsin
B10
10-3
7.895
1.126 (28)
Creighton
BE
10-2
7.667
0.899 (56)
Illinois
B10
9-4
7.637
1.237 (23)
4 Seeds
West Virginia
B12
9-4
7.615
1.526 (5)
Clemson
ACC*
9-1
7.361
0.944 (49)
Texas Tech
B12
11-3
6.911
0.242 (137)
Louisville
ACC
9-1
6.817
1.033 (41)
5 Seeds
Alabama
SEC
10-3
6.507
1.233 (24)
Oregon
P12*
9-2
6.337
0.628 (79)
UCLA
P12
9-2
6.305
0.925 (53)
Colorado
P12
9-3
6.305
0.765 (66)
6 Seeds
Florida St
ACC
6-2
6.286
0.999 (45)
Connecticut
BE
7-1
6.279
0.727 (70)
Ohio St
B10
10-3
6.250
0.915 (54)
Virginia
ACC
8-2
6.224
0.389 (106)
7 Seeds
Virginia Tech
ACC
10-2
6.215
0.700 (71)
LSU
SEC
9-2
6.196
0.551 (84)
USC
P12
9-2
6.095
0.776 (63)
Minnesota
B10
10-4
5.891
1.446 (10)
8 Seeds
San Diego St
MWC*
8-2
5.852
1.011 (43)
North Carolina
ACC
8-4
5.814
1.100 (33)
Indiana
B10
8-5
5.721
1.304 (18)
Missouri
SEC
7-2
5.668
1.488 (7)
9 Seeds
Oklahoma St
B12
9-3
5.624
1.121 (29)
Xavier
BE
10-2
5.388
0.931 (51)
Stanford
P12
8-3
5.296
0.774 (64)
Oklahoma
B12
7-4
5.290
1.087 (35)
10 Seeds
St Louis
A10*
7-1
5.278
-0.11 (219)
Rutgers
B10
7-4
5.119
1.453 (9)
Michigan St
B10
8-4
5.093
0.646 (76)
Arkansas
SEC
9-3
5.075
0.180 (143)
11 Seeds
Florida
SEC
6-3
5.060
0.966 (47)
Purdue
B10
8-5
5.054
1.267 (21)
Duke
ACC
5-3
4.730
0.619 (80)
Richmond
A10#
9-3
4.676
0.745 (67)
Syracuse
ACC#
7-3
4.542
0.546 (86)
12 Seeds
BYU
WCC#
8-3
4.420
0.778 (62)
Seton Hall
BE#
9-5
4.326
1.200 (26)
Drake
MVC*
11-0
3.744
-0.61 (312)
WKU
CUSA*
9-4
2.887
0.422 (102)
Toledo
MAC*
11-3
2.635
-0.02 (194)
13 Seeds
Furman
SC*
6-3
2.370
0.089 (162)
S Dakota St
SL*
7-3
2.183
-0.04 (198)
Winthrop
BSo*
11-0
2.115
-0.98 (338)
Belmont
OVC*
11-1
1.855
-1.09 (342)
14 Seeds
Georgia St
SBC*
5-2
1.783
0.497 (92)
Abilene Chr
SLC*
6-2
1.668
-0.35 (263)
Wright St
HL*
8-3
1.546
-0.68 (321)
Colgate
PL*
3-1
1.520
0.162 (148)
15 Seeds
Liberty
ASC*
8-4
1.357
-0.34 (259)
Siena
MAAC*
4-0
1.309
-0.47 (287)
UC Santa Barbara
BWC*
4-3
-0.16
0.103 (160)
Vermont
AEC*
5-3
-0.46
-1.22 (346)
16 Seeds
Bryant
NEC*
8-2
-0.52
-0.28 (250)
Southern Utah
BSC*
6-1
-0.77
-1.33 (352)
Grand Canyon
WAC*#
4-3
-1.20
-0.50 (296)
Drexel
CAA*#
5-4
-2.04
-0.62 (313)
Morgan St
MEAC*#
4-2
-4.06
-0.57 (307)
TX Southern
SWAC*#
1-6
-7.12
1.018 (42)

There are currently nine teams that are ineligible for the 2021 tournament due to various reasons. Alabama, Arizona, Dixie State, California Baptist, Georgia Tech, Merrimack, Tarleton State, UC San Diego and North Alabama. Also note that the Ivy League canceled their season. This means that there is one extra at-large bid available

Bracketology – 2021 NIT Tournament Bracket Predictions

For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament.

All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT). It is important to note that early predictions will be flawed because of this rule. Typically, there are about seven to nine teams that win their conference in the regular season but don’t win their conference tournament and end up in the NIT. So, in early predictions, if your team is a seven or eight seed, then it is likely they won’t make the tournament because of these auto qualifiers.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference in the regular season.

Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Boise St
MWC
11-1
4.137
-0.31 (257)
SMU
AAC
7-2
3.988
0.037 (172)
St Bonaventure
A10
5-1
3.846
0.162 (146)
VCU
A10
10-3
3.795
0.272 (135)
2 Seeds
Wichita St
AAC
6-3
3.498
1.442 (11)
St Mary’s CA
WCC
9-3
3.349
0.168 (144)
Utah St
MWC
8-3
3.180
-0.43 (279)
Georgia Tech
ACC
6-3
3.102
0.295 (130)
3 Seeds
Loyola-Chicago
MVC
6-3
3.069
-0.19 (231)
South Carolina
SEC
3-2
3.046
1.100 (34)
Pittsburgh
ACC
6-2
2.942
0.368 (113)
NC State
ACC
6-4
2.863
0.388 (108)
4 Seeds
TCU
B12
9-5
2.801
0.863 (59)
Dayton
A10
7-3
2.782
0.318 (127)
Colorado St
MWC
6-2
2.781
0.337 (119)
Memphis
AAC
6-4
2.721
-0.09 (213)
5 Seeds
Marshall
CUSA
7-2
2.687
-0.16 (228)
Tulsa
AAC
6-4
2.072
0.939 (50)
Davidson
A10
7-5
1.986
0.473 (96)
Maryland
B10
7-6
1.942
1.666 (4)
6 Seeds
Texas A&M
SEC
7-4
1.789
0.398 (105)
Mississippi St
SEC
8-5
1.658
0.143 (154)
UAB
CUSA
8-1
1.646
-1.18 (345)
Washington St
P12
9-2
1.597
-0.47 (288)
7 Seeds
Marquette
BE
7-6
1.513
1.332 (17)
San Francisco
WCC
8-6
1.451
0.332 (122)
Santa Clara
WCC
5-1
1.385
-0.15 (227)
Louisiana Tech
CUSA
9-4
1.283
-0.39 (267)
8 Seeds
Missouri St
MVC
7-1
1.227
-0.52 (298)
Georgia
SEC
6-4
1.168
0.478 (94)
Bowling Green
MAC
8-3
0.878
-0.24 (246)
Loy Marymount
WCC
6-3
0.795
0.500 (91)