Bracketology


Tournament Bracket

Welcome to our Bracketology page! Here we plan to prep you for everything that will take place during March Madness! To come up with our bracketology predictions, we use a combination of variables including our own NCAA college basketball ratings, RPI, strength of schedule (SOS), and few other factors to come up with the Bracket Rating. As is customary with the NCAA tournament, we also include the automatic qualifiers which are the champions from the conference tournaments. If the conference champion hasn’t yet been determined, then the highest rated team is predicted to be the champion. All of the factors that we use are key indicators that are very good predictors of which teams will make the final tournament.

Note that below there are 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the winners of each conference are automatically included in the tournament. Because there are four play-in games, there are 2 seed groups that will have more than 4 teams.

Early in the season (pre-January) a lot of the teams may appear to have some strange seedings. Before teams get into conference play, there is a lot of projection that needs to be done to seed the teams. As we get into January and February, the projections are slowly worked out of the equation and only actual results are used.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference.
# denotes first round play-in game

Final: Updated on 3/13/2022 @ 4:55pm ET.

Bracketology – NCAA Tournament – Bubble Teams

Last Four In First Four Out Next Four Out
Texas A&M
Indiana
Wyoming
Michigan
SMU
Wake Forest
Rutgers
Xavier
VCU
Oklahoma
BYU
North Texas

The team listed at the top of the “Last Four In” is the most vulnerable to miss the tournament.

Bracketology – 2022 NCAA Tournament Seeding Predictions

Projected Seed Team Conf Record Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Gonzaga
WCC*
26-3
10.50
0.533 (91)
Arizona
P12*
31-3
9.501
0.829 (57)
Kansas
B12*
28-6
9.175
1.280 (2)
Baylor
B12
26-6
9.141
1.023 (26)
2 Seeds
Kentucky
SEC
26-7
8.912
0.906 (44)
Auburn
SEC
27-5
8.881
0.956 (34)
Purdue
B10*
27-6
8.079
0.969 (30)
Duke
ACC
28-6
8.068
0.736 (70)
3 Seeds
Villanova
BE*
26-7
7.984
1.184 (5)
Tennessee
SEC*
25-7
7.929
1.126 (11)
Texas Tech
B12
25-9
7.320
0.923 (40)
Wisconsin
B10
24-7
7.198
1.079 (15)
4 Seeds
UCLA
P12
25-7
6.924
1.040 (21)
Illinois
B10
22-9
6.669
1.079 (14)
Arkansas
SEC
25-8
6.239
0.907 (43)
Providence
BE
25-5
6.134
0.914 (41)
5 Seeds
Connecticut
BE
23-9
6.033
0.907 (42)
Houston
AAC*
28-5
5.730
0.591 (87)
Iowa
B10
25-9
5.665
0.810 (60)
St Mary’s CA
WCC
25-7
5.505
0.775 (65)
6 Seeds
Texas
B12
21-11
5.416
0.935 (38)
LSU
SEC
22-11
5.351
0.965 (32)
Colorado St
MWC
25-5
5.332
0.596 (86)
Alabama
SEC
19-13
5.261
1.313 (1)
7 Seeds
Michigan St
B10
22-12
4.963
1.161 (7)
Ohio St
B10
19-11
4.879
1.025 (25)
Boise St
MWC*
27-7
4.774
0.635 (83)
USC
P12
26-7
4.727
0.731 (72)
8 Seeds
Murray St
OVC*
30-2
4.687
-0.41 (261)
TCU
B12
20-12
4.572
1.055 (18)
Seton Hall
BE
21-10
4.555
1.040 (20)
North Carolina
ACC
24-9
4.499
0.845 (54)
9 Seeds
San Diego St
MWC
23-8
4.499
0.760 (66)
Creighton
BE
22-11
4.479
1.015 (27)
Memphis
AAC
21-9
4.399
0.713 (74)
Marquette
BE
19-12
4.384
1.110 (12)
10 Seeds
Iowa St
B12
20-12
4.360
0.960 (33)
San Francisco
WCC
24-9
4.255
0.662 (78)
Davidson
A10
27-5
4.235
0.194 (121)
Miami FL
ACC
23-10
4.060
0.730 (73)
11 Seeds
Loyola-Chicago
MVC*
25-7
4.014
0.241 (118)
Virginia Tech
ACC*
23-12
3.986
0.704 (76)
Notre Dame
ACC
22-10
3.880
0.706 (75)
Michigan
B10#
17-14
3.808
1.245 (3)
Wyoming
MWC#
25-8
3.734
0.466 (99)
12 Seeds
Indiana
B10#
20-13
3.730
0.942 (35)
Texas A&M
SEC#
23-11
3.702
0.803 (62)
UAB
CUSA*
27-7
3.000
-0.02 (159)
S Dakota St
SL*
30-4
2.629
-0.33 (241)
Vermont
AEC*
28-5
2.327
-0.60 (308)
13 Seeds
Chattanooga
SC*
27-7
2.270
-0.04 (162)
New Mexico St
WAC*
26-6
2.027
0.088 (133)
Richmond
A10*
22-12
2.007
0.448 (105)
Montana St
BSC*
27-7
0.050
-0.43 (272)
14 Seeds
Akron
MAC*
24-9
-0.16
-0.32 (238)
Delaware
CAA*
22-12
-0.75
-0.22 (210)
Yale
Ivy*
18-11
-1.14
-0.16 (192)
St Peter’s
MAAC*
19-11
-1.14
-0.22 (209)
15 Seeds
Colgate
PL*
23-11
-1.24
-0.66 (321)
CS Fullerton
BWC*
21-10
-1.37
-0.21 (205)
Georgia St
SBC*
18-10
-1.42
-0.14 (184)
Longwood
BSo*
26-6
-1.44
-0.75 (340)
16 Seeds
Jacksonville St
ASC*
21-10
-1.58
-0.42 (270)
Norfolk St
MEAC*
24-6
-1.74
-1.21 (358)
Bryant
NEC*#
22-9
-1.81
-0.79 (345)
Wright St
HL*#
21-13
-2.75
-0.58 (301)
TX Southern
SWAC*#
18-12
-3.31
-0.80 (346)
TAM C. Christi
SLC*#
23-11
-4.35
-1.10 (357)

There are currently nine teams that are ineligible for the 2022 tournament due to various reasons. Bellarmine, California Baptist, Dixie State, Merrimack, North Alabama, Oklahoma State, St. Thomas, Tarleton State, and UC San Diego.

Bracketology – 2022 NIT Tournament Bracket Predictions

For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament.

All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT). It is important to note that early predictions will be flawed because of this rule. Typically, there are about seven to nine teams that win their conference in the regular season but don’t win their conference tournament and end up in the NIT. So, in early predictions, if your team is a seven or eight seed, then it is likely they won’t make the tournament because of these auto qualifiers.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference in the regular season.

Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
SMU
AAC
23-8
3.663
0.455 (102)
Wake Forest
ACC
23-9
3.656
0.485 (96)
Rutgers
B10
18-13
3.513
0.819 (58)
Xavier
BE
18-13
3.473
1.093 (13)
2 Seeds
VCU
A10
21-9
3.446
0.589 (88)
Oklahoma
B12
18-15
3.431
1.149 (9)
BYU
WCC
22-10
3.431
0.657 (80)
North Texas
CUSA*
24-6
3.418
0.208 (120)
3 Seeds
Florida
SEC
19-13
2.856
0.888 (48)
Dayton
A10
23-10
2.821
0.267 (113)
St Bonaventure
A10
20-9
2.697
0.478 (98)
Colorado
P12
21-11
2.647
0.752 (67)
4 Seeds
Belmont
OVC
25-7
2.620
-0.30 (228)
St Louis
A10
23-11
2.598
0.463 (101)
Oregon
P12
19-14
2.394
0.941 (36)
Santa Clara
WCC
21-11
2.173
0.496 (94)
5 Seeds
Vanderbilt
SEC
17-16
1.979
0.905 (45)
Mississippi St
SEC
18-15
1.957
0.876 (49)
Drake
MVC
23-10
1.906
0.133 (124)
Missouri St
MVC
23-10
1.891
0.064 (139)
6 Seeds
Iona
MAAC*
25-7
1.850
-0.10 (177)
St John’s
BE
17-15
1.828
0.855 (52)
Toledo
MAC*
26-7
1.789
-0.22 (211)
Virginia
ACC
19-13
1.698
0.701 (77)
7 Seeds
Towson
CAA*
25-8
1.282
-0.17 (197)
Northern Iowa
MVC*
19-11
0.757
0.265 (114)
Princeton
Ivy*
23-5
0.691
-0.48 (285)
Texas St
SBC*
21-7
-0.05
-0.29 (224)
8 Seeds
Long Beach St
BWC*
20-12
-1.25
0.131 (125)
Cleveland St
HL*
20-10
-2.03
-0.62 (311)
Nicholls St
SLC*
21-11
-2.90
-0.73 (329)
Alcorn St
SWAC*
17-16
-5.96
-0.57 (299)