Bracketology


Tournament Bracket

Welcome to our Bracketology page! Here we plan to prep you for everything that will take place during March Madness! To come up with our bracketology predictions, we use a combination of variables including our own NCAA college basketball ratings, RPI, strength of schedule (SOS), and few other factors to come up with the Bracket Rating. As is customary with the NCAA tournament, we also include the automatic qualifiers which are the champions from the conference tournaments. If the conference champion hasn’t yet been determined, then the highest rated team is predicted to be the champion. All of the factors that we use are key indicators that are very good predictors of which teams will make the final tournament.

Note that below there are 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the winners of each conference are automatically included in the tournament. Because there are four play-in games, there are 2 seed groups that will have more than 4 teams.

Early in the season (pre-January) a lot of the teams may appear to have some strange seedings. Before teams get into conference play, there is a lot of projection that needs to be done to seed the teams. As we get into January and February, the projections are slowly worked out of the equation and only actual results are used.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference.
# denotes first round play-in game

Updated on 1/13/2020.

Bracketology – NCAA Tournament – Bubble Teams

Last Four In First Four Out Next Four Out
Tennessee
Oregon St
Washington
Xavier
Virginia Tech
NC State
USC
Duquesne
Georgetown
St Louis
Texas
Pittsburgh

The team listed at the top of the “Last Four In” is the most vulnerable to miss the tournament.

Bracketology – 2019 NCAA Tournament Seeding Predictions

Projected Seed Team Conf Record Actual Seed SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Kansas
B12*
12-3
13.23
1.227 (1)
Baylor
B12
13-1
12.36
0.481 (41)
Butler
BE*
15-1
11.74
0.540 (36)
West Virginia
B12
13-2
11.62
1.140 (2)
2 Seeds
San Diego St
MWC*
17-0
10.00
-0.15 (136)
Auburn
SEC*
15-0
9.906
0.213 (75)
Maryland
B10*
13-3
9.530
0.769 (14)
Seton Hall
BE
12-4
9.432
0.944 (4)
3 Seeds
Oregon
P12*
14-3
9.333
0.789 (11)
Florida St
ACC*
14-2
9.282
0.518 (37)
Dayton
A10*
14-2
9.221
0.164 (83)
Gonzaga
WCC*
18-1
8.735
-0.14 (135)
4 Seeds
Colorado
P12
13-3
8.444
0.596 (31)
Louisville
ACC
13-3
8.310
0.427 (48)
Villanova
BE
12-3
7.902
0.756 (15)
Iowa
B10
11-5
7.884
0.737 (17)
5 Seeds
Wichita St
AAC*
15-1
7.773
-0.23 (156)
Michigan
B10
11-5
7.662
0.804 (9)
Stanford
P12
14-2
7.640
-0.02 (109)
Kentucky
SEC
12-3
7.486
0.082 (96)
6 Seeds
Arkansas
SEC
13-2
7.373
0.317 (62)
Indiana
B10
13-3
7.179
0.483 (40)
Wisconsin
B10
10-6
7.136
0.865 (7)
Creighton
BE
13-4
7.107
0.474 (42)
7 Seeds
LSU
SEC
11-4
7.070
0.271 (67)
BYU
WCC
13-5
6.913
0.368 (51)
Arizona
P12
11-5
6.763
0.637 (27)
Rutgers
B10
12-4
6.760
0.218 (73)
8 Seeds
Houston
AAC
12-4
6.597
0.320 (60)
Illinois
B10
12-5
6.566
0.363 (53)
Penn St
B10
12-4
6.394
0.352 (55)
St Mary’s CA
WCC
15-4
6.392
0.043 (100)
9 Seeds
Ohio St
B10
11-5
6.353
0.729 (18)
Texas Tech
B12
10-5
6.328
0.253 (70)
Oklahoma
B12
11-4
6.193
0.813 (8)
TCU
B12
12-3
6.020
-0.18 (145)
10 Seeds
Florida
SEC
10-5
5.984
0.755 (16)
Memphis
AAC
13-3
5.960
0.095 (91)
Purdue
B10
10-7
5.933
0.449 (46)
Minnesota
B10
9-7
5.923
1.042 (3)
11 Seeds
Marquette
BE
11-5
5.626
0.665 (23)
Cincinnati
AAC
10-6
5.296
0.591 (32)
Northern Iowa
MVC*
14-2
5.235
-0.28 (167)
Xavier
BE#
12-5
5.233
0.608 (30)
Washington
P12#
11-6
5.223
0.366 (52)
12 Seeds
Oregon St
P12#
12-4
5.067
0.042 (101)
Tennessee
SEC#
10-5
4.962
0.184 (76)
Yale
Ivy*
11-4
4.765
-0.32 (181)
Akron
MAC*
13-3
4.583
-0.53 (230)
Liberty
ASC*
18-1
4.508
-0.93 (322)
13 Seeds
ETSU
SC*
15-3
4.255
-0.66 (268)
Georgia St
SBC*
12-6
3.321
-0.19 (146)
Louisiana Tech
CUSA*
12-4
3.189
-0.84 (309)
Vermont
AEC*
11-6
3.008
-0.22 (154)
14 Seeds
New Mexico St
WAC*
12-6
2.602
-0.57 (239)
Colgate
PL*
13-4
2.535
-0.49 (214)
Belmont
OVC*
12-5
2.496
-1.01 (332)
SF Austin
SLC*
13-3
2.478
-1.10 (345)
15 Seeds
Wright St
HL*
15-4
2.220
-1.11 (347)
William & Mary
CAA*
13-5
2.211
-0.46 (209)
N Colorado
BSC*
10-5
2.026
-0.71 (280)
S Dakota St
SL*
13-7
1.442
-0.83 (304)
16 Seeds
UC Santa Barbara
BWC*
12-5
1.186
-1.00 (330)
Winthrop
BSo*
10-7
0.807
-0.61 (251)
St Francis PA
NEC*#
10-5
0.373
-0.72 (284)
Rider
MAAC*#
9-6
-0.71
-0.45 (205)
Prairie View
SWAC*#
6-10
-3.55
-0.14 (134)
Bethune-Cookman
MEAC*#
8-9
-4.97
-1.04 (338)

There are currently two teams that are ineligible for the 2019 tournament due to APR. Those teams are Alabama A&M and Florida A&M.

Bracketology – 2019 NIT Tournament Bracket Predictions

For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament.

All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT). It is important to note that early predictions will be flawed because of this rule. Typically, there are about seven to nine teams that win their conference in the regular season but don’t win their conference tournament and end up in the NIT. So, in early predictions, if your team is a seven or eight seed, then it is likely they won’t make the tournament because of these auto qualifiers.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference in the regular season.

Seed Team Conf Record Actual Seed SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Virginia Tech
ACC
12-4
4.885
0.022 (103)
NC State
ACC
11-5
4.736
0.281 (65)
USC
P12
13-3
4.674
0.217 (74)
Duquesne
A10
14-2
4.575
-0.30 (178)
2 Seeds
Georgetown
BE
11-6
4.550
0.641 (26)
St Louis
A10
14-3
4.469
-0.26 (163)
Texas
B12
11-4
4.312
0.294 (63)
Pittsburgh
ACC
11-5
4.143
0.362 (54)
3 Seeds
Utah St
MWC
14-5
4.137
-0.12 (127)
Rhode Island
A10
10-5
4.116
0.280 (66)
New Mexico
MWC
15-3
4.034
-0.43 (202)
SMU
AAC
12-3
4.027
-0.30 (175)
4 Seeds
Furman
SC
13-4
4.027
-0.38 (194)
UNC Greensboro
SC
13-5
3.962
-0.49 (217)
St John’s
BE
12-5
3.960
-0.12 (128)
Richmond
A10
12-4
3.955
0.166 (80)
5 Seeds
Miami FL
ACC
10-5
3.445
0.790 (10)
Arizona St
P12
10-6
3.394
0.611 (28)
Kent
MAC
13-3
3.362
-0.74 (286)
Missouri
SEC
9-6
3.347
0.234 (72)
6 Seeds
Utah
P12
10-5
3.251
0.555 (35)
Syracuse
ACC
9-7
3.119
0.325 (58)
Harvard
Ivy
11-4
3.098
-0.40 (196)
Providence
BE
10-7
3.066
0.403 (50)
7 Seeds
San Francisco
WCC
13-6
2.980
-0.12 (130)
DePaul
BE
12-4
2.941
-0.12 (132)
Duke
ACC
15-1
2.841
0.664 (24)
Bradley
MVC
12-5
2.839
-0.39 (195)
8 Seeds
Nevada
MWC
10-7
2.828
0.319 (61)
Tulsa
AAC
10-5
2.627
-0.14 (133)
St Bonaventure
A10
11-5
2.620
-0.49 (216)
Santa Clara
WCC
15-3
2.546
-1.00 (331)