Welcome to our Bracketology page! Here we plan to prep you for everything that will take place during March Madness! To come up with our bracketology predictions, we use a combination of variables including our own NCAA college basketball ratings, RPI, strength of schedule (SOS), and few other factors to come up with the Bracket Rating. As is customary with the NCAA tournament, we also include the automatic qualifiers which are the champions from the conference tournaments. If the conference champion hasn’t yet been determined, then the highest rated team is predicted to be the champion. All of the factors that we use are key indicators that are very good predictors of which teams will make the final tournament.
Note that below there are 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the winners of each conference are automatically included in the tournament. Because there are four play-in games, there are 2 seed groups that will have more than 4 teams.
Early in the season (pre-January) a lot of the teams may appear to have some strange seedings. Before teams get into conference play, there is a lot of projection that needs to be done to seed the teams. As we get into January and February, the projections are slowly worked out of the equation and only actual results are used.
* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference.
# denotes first round play-in game
Updated on 12/4/2024.
Bracketology – NCAA Tournament – Bubble Teams
| Last Four In |
First Four Out |
Next Four Out |
Texas
Penn St
Iowa
Arkansas |
Louisville
LSU
Nebraska
Boise St |
BYU
New Mexico
Creighton
West Virginia |
The team listed at the top of the “Last Four In” is the most vulnerable to miss the tournament.
Bracketology – 2024 NCAA Tournament Seeding Predictions
| Projected Seed |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Rating |
SOS (Rank) |
| 1 Seeds |
Auburn |
SEC* |
7-0 |
10.91 |
1.479 (6) |
| Gonzaga |
WCC* |
7-1 |
9.559 |
0.990 (20) |
| Tennessee |
SEC |
8-0 |
9.223 |
0.472 (80) |
| Kansas |
B12* |
7-0 |
8.972 |
1.073 (16) |
| 2 Seeds |
Alabama |
SEC |
6-2 |
8.666 |
1.683 (3) |
| Houston |
B12 |
4-3 |
8.376 |
1.078 (15) |
| Duke |
ACC* |
5-2 |
8.336 |
0.804 (31) |
| Purdue |
B10* |
7-1 |
7.845 |
1.139 (13) |
| 3 Seeds |
Florida |
SEC |
8-0 |
7.601 |
0.148 (155) |
| Marquette |
BE* |
8-0 |
7.596 |
0.501 (75) |
| Oregon |
B10 |
8-0 |
7.221 |
0.909 (24) |
| Iowa St |
B12 |
5-1 |
7.157 |
0.001 (180) |
| 4 Seeds |
Kentucky |
SEC |
7-1 |
7.012 |
0.371 (100) |
| Baylor |
B12 |
5-2 |
6.738 |
1.209 (11) |
| North Carolina |
ACC |
4-3 |
6.659 |
1.315 (9) |
| Pittsburgh |
ACC |
7-1 |
6.561 |
0.637 (57) |
| 5 Seeds |
Texas A&M |
SEC |
7-2 |
6.449 |
0.812 (30) |
| Michigan |
B10 |
7-1 |
6.382 |
0.786 (34) |
| Memphis |
AAC* |
6-1 |
6.309 |
1.769 (2) |
| St John’s |
BE |
6-2 |
6.123 |
0.512 (74) |
| 6 Seeds |
Wisconsin |
B10 |
8-1 |
6.014 |
0.378 (99) |
| Illinois |
B10 |
6-1 |
5.937 |
-0.13 (221) |
| Mississippi St |
SEC |
6-1 |
5.881 |
0.180 (143) |
| Mississippi |
SEC |
7-1 |
5.839 |
0.336 (105) |
| 7 Seeds |
Michigan St |
B10 |
6-2 |
5.836 |
0.798 (33) |
| St Mary’s CA |
WCC |
8-1 |
5.711 |
0.480 (77) |
| Ohio St |
B10 |
5-2 |
5.669 |
0.529 (71) |
| Clemson |
ACC |
8-1 |
5.637 |
0.206 (137) |
| 8 Seeds |
Connecticut |
BE |
5-3 |
5.581 |
-0.37 (294) |
| UCLA |
B10 |
7-1 |
5.452 |
-0.17 (232) |
| Oklahoma |
SEC |
8-0 |
5.308 |
-0.07 (205) |
| Dayton |
A10* |
7-2 |
5.289 |
0.758 (38) |
| 9 Seeds |
Cincinnati |
B12 |
6-1 |
5.276 |
-0.53 (321) |
| San Diego St |
MWC* |
4-2 |
5.237 |
2.251 (1) |
| Utah St |
MWC |
7-0 |
5.225 |
0.391 (94) |
| Texas Tech |
B12 |
6-1 |
5.174 |
-0.43 (304) |
| 10 Seeds |
Nevada |
MWC |
6-2 |
4.988 |
1.065 (17) |
| Arizona |
B12 |
3-4 |
4.924 |
0.803 (32) |
| Indiana |
B10 |
6-2 |
4.900 |
0.731 (42) |
| Maryland |
B10 |
7-1 |
4.817 |
-0.65 (330) |
| 11 Seeds |
Georgia |
SEC |
8-1 |
4.640 |
0.076 (167) |
| Arkansas |
SEC# |
6-2 |
4.639 |
0.223 (132) |
| Iowa |
Big Ten# |
7-1 |
4.605 |
-0.17 (234) |
| Penn St |
Big Ten# |
7-1 |
4.539 |
-0.49 (310) |
| Texas |
SEC# |
6-1 |
4.526 |
-0.90 (348) |
| UC Irvine |
Big West* |
8-0 |
3.516 |
-0.06 (204) |
12 Seeds |
Liberty |
CUSA* |
8-1 |
3.192 |
0.476 (78) |
| Washington St |
P12* |
7-2 |
3.178 |
0.356 (103) |
| Drake |
MVC* |
7-0 |
3.099 |
0.436 (90) |
| Grand Canyon |
WAC* |
5-2 |
2.777 |
0.285 (114) |
| 13 Seeds |
Princeton |
Ivy* |
7-3 |
1.418 |
-0.03 (192) |
| Col Charleston |
CAA* |
6-2 |
1.166 |
0.328 (108) |
| McNeese St |
SLC* |
4-4 |
1.121 |
0.936 (23) |
| Furman |
SC* |
7-1 |
0.878 |
0.176 (147) |
| 14 Seeds |
Arkansas St |
SBC* |
5-3 |
0.794 |
0.495 (76) |
| S Dakota St |
SL* |
7-2 |
0.671 |
0.122 (160) |
| Kent |
MAC* |
6-2 |
0.589 |
0.281 (116) |
| High Point |
BSo* |
8-2 |
0.543 |
-1.06 (356) |
| 15 Seeds |
Lipscomb |
ASC* |
5-4 |
0.355 |
0.177 (145) |
| PFW |
HL* |
5-3 |
-0.33 |
-0.19 (238) |
| N Colorado |
BSC* |
6-3 |
-0.96 |
0.473 (79) |
| Norfolk St |
MEAC* |
6-3 |
-1.56 |
-0.02 (188) |
| 16 Seeds |
MA Lowell |
AEC* |
5-4 |
-1.79 |
0.367 (101) |
| St Peter’s |
MAAC* |
4-3 |
-2.76 |
-0.12 (219) |
| Central Conn |
NEC*# |
4-3 |
-3.36 |
-0.17 (231) |
| Colgate |
PL*# |
2-6 |
-3.43 |
0.465 (81) |
Ark Little Rock |
OVC*# |
4-4 |
-3.46 |
0.176 (146) |
| Grambling |
SWAC*# |
2-5 |
-4.05 |
1.489 (5) |
There are currently eleven teams that are ineligible for the 2024 tournament due to various reasons. Bellarmine, Le Moyne, Lindenwood, Queens, St. Thomas, Southern Indiana, Stonehill, Tarleton State, Texas A&M-Commerce, UC San Diego, Utah Tech.
Bracketology – 2024 NIT Tournament Bracket Predictions
For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament.
All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament used to automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT). However, this is no longer the case starting in 2024. Now, the two teams with the highest NET rating from six conferences (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12 and SEC) will get auto bids and will be a host school.
* denotes that the team gets a bid and will host a first round game due to the new 2024 selection rules.
| Seed |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Bracket Rating |
SOS (Rank) |
| 1 Seeds |
Louisville |
ACC* |
5-3 |
4.488 |
0.973 (21) |
| LSU |
SEC* |
7-1 |
4.429 |
0.156 (152) |
| Nebraska |
B10* |
6-1 |
4.365 |
-0.16 (229) |
| Boise St |
MWC |
6-2 |
4.334 |
0.270 (117) |
| 2 Seeds |
BYU |
B12* |
6-2 |
4.251 |
-0.30 (278) |
| New Mexico |
MWC |
6-2 |
4.196 |
0.459 (85) |
| Creighton |
BE* |
5-3 |
4.170 |
0.130 (157) |
| West Virginia |
B12* |
5-2 |
4.168 |
1.175 (12) |
| 3 Seeds |
Arizona St |
B12 |
8-1 |
4.073 |
0.768 (37) |
| SMU |
ACC* |
7-2 |
3.900 |
-0.17 (230) |
| Butler |
BE* |
7-1 |
3.899 |
0.233 (128) |
| Xavier |
BE |
7-1 |
3.769 |
-0.40 (297) |
| 4 Seeds |
Northwestern |
B10* |
6-3 |
3.729 |
0.308 (111) |
| VCU |
A10 |
6-2 |
3.667 |
0.068 (169) |
| Florida St |
ACC |
7-2 |
3.653 |
0.529 (72) |
| San Francisco |
WCC |
6-2 |
3.602 |
-0.05 (198) |
| Top 4 Unseeded |
UCF |
B12 |
6-2 |
3.502 |
0.716 (44) |
| Vanderbilt |
SEC |
7-1 |
3.501 |
-0.31 (279) |
| Colorado |
B12 |
6-2 |
3.455 |
0.654 (53) |
| Missouri |
SEC |
7-1 |
3.344 |
-1.09 (358) |
| Next 4 Unseeded |
Utah |
B12 |
6-1 |
3.311 |
-1.05 (353) |
| South Carolina |
SEC |
5-3 |
3.284 |
0.267 (119) |
| Kansas St |
B12 |
6-2 |
3.153 |
-0.73 (334) |
| NC State |
ACC |
5-2 |
3.102 |
-0.03 (195) |
| Next 4 Unseeded |
Rutgers |
B10 |
5-3 |
3.088 |
0.428 (91) |
| Villanova |
BE |
5-4 |
3.013 |
0.057 (171) |
| Wake Forest |
ACC |
7-3 |
2.924 |
0.125 (159) |
| North Texas |
AAC |
6-2 |
2.924 |
0.768 (36) |
| Last 4 In |
Bradley |
MVC |
8-1 |
2.895 |
-0.29 (270) |
| Loyola-Chicago |
A10 |
7-0 |
2.823 |
-0.88 (346) |
| Washington |
B10 |
6-2 |
2.812 |
0.523 (73) |
| Providence |
BE |
6-3 |
2.707 |
-0.00 (181) |
