Bracketology


Tournament Bracket

Welcome to our Bracketology page! Here we plan to prep you for everything that will take place during March Madness! To come up with our bracketology predictions, we use a combination of variables including our own NCAA college basketball ratings, RPI, strength of schedule (SOS), and few other factors to come up with the Bracket Rating. As is customary with the NCAA tournament, we also include the automatic qualifiers which are the champions from the conference tournaments. If the conference champion hasn’t yet been determined, then the highest rated team is predicted to be the champion. All of the factors that we use are key indicators that are very good predictors of which teams will make the final tournament.

Note that below there are 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the winners of each conference are automatically included in the tournament. Because there are four play-in games, there are 2 seed groups that will have more than 4 teams.

Early in the season (pre-January) a lot of the teams may appear to have some strange seedings. Before teams get into conference play, there is a lot of projection that needs to be done to seed the teams. As we get into January and February, the projections are slowly worked out of the equation and only actual results are used.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference.
# denotes first round play-in game

Final: Updated on 2/25/2024 @ 7:40am ET.

Bracketology – NCAA Tournament – Bubble Teams

Last Four In First Four Out Next Four Out
Mississippi
Providence
Virginia
Seton Hall
Villanova
Utah
Pittsburgh
Texas A&M
Cincinnati
Oregon
SMU
Drake

The team listed at the top of the “Last Four In” is the most vulnerable to miss the tournament.

Bracketology – 2023 NCAA Tournament Seeding Predictions

Projected Seed Team Conf Record Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Purdue
B10*
24-3
11.39
1.422 (3)
Houston
B12*
24-3
11.14
1.041 (36)
Arizona
P12*
21-6
9.804
1.237 (9)
Connecticut
BE*
25-3
9.791
0.719 (83)
2 Seeds
Tennessee
SEC*
21-6
9.603
1.220 (11)
North Carolina
ACC*
21-6
8.927
1.194 (16)
Kansas
B12
21-6
8.788
1.248 (8)
Alabama
SEC
19-8
8.474
1.453 (2)
3 Seeds
Auburn
SEC
21-6
8.436
0.966 (49)
Marquette
BE
20-6
7.896
1.118 (24)
Creighton
BE
20-7
7.716
1.023 (41)
Iowa St
B12
21-6
7.571
0.811 (75)
4 Seeds
Duke
ACC
21-6
7.345
0.870 (66)
Baylor
B12
19-8
7.132
1.180 (17)
San Diego St
MWC*
21-7
6.955
1.106 (26)
Illinois
B10
20-7
6.889
1.057 (34)
5 Seeds
Kentucky
SEC
19-8
6.883
1.029 (39)
BYU
B12
19-8
6.306
0.831 (72)
Wisconsin
B10
18-9
6.133
1.341 (4)
Michigan St
B10
17-10
6.005
1.236 (10)
6 Seeds
Clemson
ACC
19-8
5.939
1.102 (28)
Florida
SEC
19-8
5.931
1.038 (37)
South Carolina
SEC
22-5
5.779
0.644 (87)
TCU
B12
19-8
5.756
0.674 (85)
7 Seeds
Colorado St
MWC
20-8
5.735
1.016 (42)
St Mary’s CA
WCC*
23-6
5.733
0.446 (100)
Texas Tech
B12
19-8
5.724
0.983 (45)
Mississippi St
SEC
19-8
5.695
1.045 (35)
8 Seeds
FL Atlantic
AAC*
21-6
5.502
0.590 (90)
Dayton
A10*
21-5
5.471
0.653 (86)
Gonzaga
WCC
22-6
5.408
0.288 (112)
Utah St
MWC
22-5
5.334
0.772 (79)
9 Seeds
Oklahoma
B12
19-8
5.305
0.778 (78)
New Mexico
MWC
21-7
5.262
0.696 (84)
Boise St
MWC
19-8
5.196
0.937 (52)
Washington St
P12
21-7
5.083
0.805 (76)
10 Seeds
Northwestern
B10
19-8
5.080
0.928 (53)
Nebraska
B10
19-8
5.079
0.891 (62)
Nevada
MWC
22-6
5.060
0.543 (94)
Texas
B12
17-10
4.894
1.002 (43)
11 Seeds
Wake Forest
ACC
18-9
4.874
0.895 (60)
Colorado
Pac-12
18-9
4.856
0.939 (51)
Seton Hall
Big East#
18-9
4.796
0.928 (54)
Virginia
ACC#
20-8
4.471
0.825 (73)
12 Seeds
Providence
Big East#
18-9
4.463
0.894 (61)
Mississippi
SEC#
19-8
4.244
0.918 (57)
Indiana St
MVC*
24-5
4.141
0.079 (136)
Princeton
Ivy*
21-3
3.476
-0.11 (178)
Grand Canyon
WAC*
24-4
3.360
-0.05 (166)
James Madison
Sun Belt*
26-3
3.244
-0.47 (263)
13 Seeds
McNeese St
SLC*
24-3
2.504
-0.76 (328)
Samford
SC*
25-4
2.249
-0.37 (241)
UC Irvine
BWC*
20-8
1.964
0.020 (150)
Akron
MAC*
20-7
1.821
-0.14 (182)
14 Seeds
Louisiana Tech
CUSA*
20-8
1.685
0.050 (143)
Col Charleston
CAA*
22-7
1.322
-0.27 (218)
Vermont
AEC*
23-6
1.188
-0.43 (252)
High Point
BSo*
23-6
0.550
-0.58 (294)
15 Seeds
Colgate
PL*
20-8
-0.03
-0.62 (304)
Morehead St
OVC*
21-8
-0.67
-0.59 (297)
Oakland
HL*
19-10
-0.75
-0.15 (184)
E Washington
BSC*
18-10
-1.28
-0.15 (186)
16 Seeds
Quinnipiac
MAAC*
19-7
-2.08
-0.90 (342)
Lipscomb
ASC*
18-11
-2.65
-0.44 (256)
S Dakota St
SL*#
17-12
-2.91
-0.33 (230)
Merrimack
NEC*#
18-10
-3.52
-0.96 (348)
Norfolk St
MEAC*#
18-9
-3.95
-0.73 (323)
Southern Univ
SWAC*#
16-11
-4.85
-0.50 (275)

There are currently eleven teams that are ineligible for the 2024 tournament due to various reasons. Bellarmine, Le Moyne, Lindenwood, Queens, St. Thomas, Southern Indiana, Stonehill, Tarleton State, Texas A&M-Commerce, UC San Diego, Utah Tech.

Bracketology – 2023 NIT Tournament Bracket Predictions

For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament.

All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament used automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT). However, this is no longer the case starting in 2024.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference in the regular season.

Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Villanova
BE
15-12
4.013
1.200 (14)
Utah
P12
16-11
3.903
1.207 (13)
Pittsburgh
ACC
18-9
3.818
0.725 (82)
Texas A&M
SEC
15-12
3.773
1.120 (23)
2 Seeds
Cincinnati
B12
16-11
3.749
0.883 (64)
Oregon
P12
18-9
3.646
0.897 (59)
SMU
AAC
19-8
3.629
0.427 (102)
Drake
MVC
23-6
3.592
0.146 (128)
3 Seeds
San Francisco
WCC
22-7
3.490
-0.07 (170)
Memphis
AAC
19-8
3.376
0.590 (89)
St John’s
BE
15-12
3.368
1.145 (21)
Butler
BE
16-12
3.230
1.195 (15)
4 Seeds
Xavier
BE
13-13
3.119
1.309 (5)
Iowa
B10
16-12
3.106
1.109 (25)
Virginia Tech
ACC
15-12
3.027
0.978 (46)
Kansas St
B12
16-11
2.887
1.062 (31)
5 Seeds
NC State
ACC
17-10
2.802
0.740 (81)
Richmond
A10
20-7
2.737
0.205 (122)
Minnesota
B10
17-9
2.708
0.595 (88)
Bradley
MVC
20-9
2.596
0.303 (110)
6 Seeds
Ohio St
B10
15-12
2.516
1.028 (40)
Maryland
B10
14-13
2.494
0.915 (58)
Syracuse
ACC
18-10
2.437
1.154 (20)
Loyola-Chicago
MVC
20-7
2.148
0.253 (118)
7 Seeds
UNLV
MWC
16-10
2.080
0.888 (63)
South Florida
AAC
20-5
2.051
0.041 (145)
VCU
A10
17-9
2.039
0.454 (99)
Appalachian St
SBC
24-5
2.018
-0.17 (191)
8 Seeds
Washington
P12
15-13
1.890
1.100 (29)
Cornell
Ivy
20-5
1.846
-0.23 (207)
Rutgers
B10
14-12
1.793
1.058 (32)
Yale
Ivy
18-8
1.698
0.143 (129)