Bracketology


Welcome to our Bracketology page! Here we plan to prep you for everything that will take place during March Madness! To come up with our bracketology predictions, we use a combination of variables including our own NCAA college basketball ratings, RPI, strength of schedule (SOS), and few other factors to come up with the Bracket Rating. As is customary with the NCAA tournament, we also include the automatic qualifiers which are the champions from the conference tournaments. If the conference champion hasn’t yet been determined, then the highest rated team is predicted to be the champion. All of the factors that we use are key indicators that are very good predictors of which teams will make the final tournament.

Note that below there are 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the winners of each conference are automatically included in the tournament. Because there are four play-in games, there are 2 seed groups that will have more than 4 teams.

Early in the season (pre-January) a lot of the teams may appear to have some strange seedings. Before teams get into conference play, there is a lot of projection that needs to be done to seed the teams. As we get into January and February, the projections are slowly worked out of the equation and only actual results are used.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference.
# denotes first round play-in game

Updated on 1/21/2018.

Bracketology – NCAA Tournament – Bubble Teams

Last Four In First Four Out Next Four Out
SMU
WKU
Houston
Maryland
Syracuse
Washington
Boston College
Georgia
NC State
Oklahoma St
BYU
Nebraska


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Bracketology – 2018 NCAA Tournament Seeding Predictions

Projected Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Villanova
BE*
18-1
13.09
0.705 (14)
Virginia
ACC*
17-1
12.64
0.445 (39)
Purdue
B10*
19-2
11.84
0.473 (37)
Duke
ACC
17-2
11.78
0.626 (18)
2 Seeds
North Carolina
ACC
16-4
10.90
1.051 (1)
Xavier
BE
18-3
10.88
0.812 (6)
Kansas
B12*
16-3
10.79
0.922 (4)
Clemson
ACC
16-3
10.26
0.649 (16)
3 Seeds
Auburn
SEC*
17-2
10.07
0.439 (41)
West Virginia
B12
16-3
9.506
0.428 (44)
Ohio St
B10
17-4
9.494
0.622 (19)
Oklahoma
B12
14-4
9.129
0.771 (9)
4 Seeds
Tennessee
SEC
13-5
8.749
1.034 (2)
Texas Tech
B12
15-4
8.603
0.416 (47)
Cincinnati
AAC*
17-2
8.544
-0.07 (140)
Florida
SEC
14-5
8.462
0.756 (13)
5 Seeds
Rhode Island
A10*
15-3
8.410
0.380 (55)
Michigan St
B10
17-3
8.295
0.219 (86)
Arizona
P12*
16-4
8.200
0.616 (20)
Nevada
MWC*
18-3
8.089
0.379 (56)
6 Seeds
Seton Hall
BE
15-5
7.690
0.641 (17)
Louisville
ACC
14-4
7.420
0.435 (42)
Arizona St
P12
15-4
7.140
0.495 (35)
Kentucky
SEC
14-5
7.080
0.760 (11)
7 Seeds
St Mary’s CA
WCC*
19-2
6.937
-0.04 (134)
TCU
B12
14-5
6.909
0.670 (15)
Creighton
BE
14-5
6.876
0.447 (38)
Michigan
B10
16-5
6.758
0.307 (70)
8 Seeds
Butler
BE
14-7
6.720
0.842 (5)
Wichita St
MVC*
15-4
6.650
0.396 (53)
Florida St
ACC
14-5
6.649
0.406 (51)
Alabama
SEC
13-6
6.565
0.760 (12)
9 Seeds
Gonzaga
WCC
17-4
6.378
0.080 (113)
Miami FL
ACC
13-4
6.256
0.334 (64)
Arkansas
SEC
13-6
6.208
0.776 (8)
Texas A&M
SEC
13-6
6.096
0.571 (23)
10 Seeds
Providence
BE
14-6
6.000
0.570 (25)
Boise St
MWC
15-4
5.829
0.264 (77)
Missouri
SEC
13-6
5.815
0.504 (33)
USC
P12
15-6
5.743
0.380 (54)
11 Seeds
Marquette
BE
13-6
5.698
0.573 (22)
MTSU
CUSA*
14-5
5.689
0.428 (45)
Kansas St
B12
14-5
5.679
0.339 (63)
Texas
B12
12-7
5.521
0.765 (10)
12 Seeds
Maryland
B10#
14-6
5.386
0.413 (49)
New Mexico St
WAC*
17-3
5.254
-0.25 (194)
Houston
AAC#
15-4
5.247
0.020 (118)
WKU
CUSA#
13-6
5.234
0.497 (34)
13 Seeds
ULL
SBC*
17-3
4.000
-0.53 (273)
S Dakota St
SL*
17-5
3.772
-0.43 (249)
ETSU
SC*
16-4
3.616
-0.52 (267)
Vermont
AEC*
15-5
3.022
-0.27 (198)
14 Seeds
Belmont
OVC*
15-6
2.851
-0.08 (141)
Montana
BSC*
13-5
2.703
-0.30 (206)
Wright St
HL*
15-6
2.065
-0.43 (250)
William & Mary
CAA*
13-6
1.776
-0.22 (180)
15 Seeds
SF Austin
SLC*
15-3
1.658
-1.08 (347)
UC Santa Barbara
BWC*
4-2
1.416
-0.78 (320)
Rider
MAAC*
13-7
1.039
-0.12 (155)
Bucknell
PL*
13-8
0.717
-0.02 (127)
16 Seeds
Radford
BSo*
13-7
0.182
-0.39 (240)
Wagner
NEC*
13-6
-0.67
-0.84 (332)
Lipscomb
ASC*#
12-8
-0.68
-0.28 (200)
Princeton
Ivy*#
9-8
-0.96
-0.03 (133)
NC A&T
MEAC*#
12-9
-4.01
-0.76 (315)
TX Southern
SWAC*#
4-15
-8.16
0.553 (27)

There are currently four teams that are ineligible for the 2018 tournament due to APR. These teams are Savannah St, Alabama A&M, Grambling and SE Missouri St.


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Bracketology – 2018 NIT Tournament Bracket Predictions

For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament.

All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT). It is important to note that early predictions will be flawed because of this rule. Typically, there are about seven to nine teams that win their conference in the regular season but don’t win their conference tournament and end up in the NIT. So, in early predictions, if your team is a seven or eight seed, then it is likely they won’t make the tournament because of these auto qualifiers.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference in the regular season.

Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Syracuse
ACC
13-6
4.792
0.525 (29)
Washington
P12
14-6
4.533
0.377 (58)
Boston College
ACC
13-6
4.445
0.227 (84)
Georgia
SEC
12-6
4.427
0.519 (30)
2 Seeds
NC State
ACC
13-6
4.408
0.168 (96)
Oklahoma St
B12
13-6
3.988
0.248 (78)
BYU
WCC
17-4
3.968
-0.23 (185)
Nebraska
B10
14-7
3.855
0.373 (60)
3 Seeds
Notre Dame
ACC
13-7
3.814
0.266 (76)
UCF
AAC
13-6
3.792
0.225 (85)
Loyola-Chicago
MVC
14-4
3.684
-0.22 (182)
UCLA
P12
13-7
3.643
0.442 (40)
4 Seeds
Baylor
B12
12-7
3.437
0.270 (75)
St Bonaventure
A10
12-6
3.330
0.291 (73)
Mississippi St
SEC
14-5
3.270
-0.21 (178)
South Carolina
SEC
12-7
3.269
0.414 (48)
5 Seeds
Old Dominion
CUSA
15-4
3.176
-0.25 (195)
Utah
P12
11-7
2.976
0.426 (46)
Oregon
P12
13-7
2.925
0.217 (88)
Missouri St
MVC
15-6
2.862
-0.12 (154)
6 Seeds
Virginia Tech
ACC
13-6
2.730
-0.00 (124)
Minnesota
B10
14-8
2.648
0.376 (59)
LSU
SEC
11-7
2.623
0.327 (66)
Colorado
P12
12-8
2.609
0.541 (28)
7 Seeds
Utah Valley
WAC
15-6
2.489
-0.51 (265)
South Dakota
SL
16-5
2.467
-0.45 (252)
Murray St
OVC
14-5
2.345
-0.61 (290)
Iowa St
B12
11-7
2.318
0.430 (43)
8 Seeds
Toledo
MAC
12-6
2.117
-0.03 (131)
Marshall
CUSA
14-6
2.059
-0.33 (218)
Wofford
SC
14-5
1.955
-0.58 (284)
Fresno St
MWC
12-6
1.830
-0.13 (157)