Bracketology


Tournament Bracket

Welcome to our Bracketology page! Here we plan to prep you for everything that will take place during March Madness! To come up with our bracketology predictions, we use a combination of variables including our own NCAA college basketball ratings, RPI, strength of schedule (SOS), and few other factors to come up with the Bracket Rating. As is customary with the NCAA tournament, we also include the automatic qualifiers which are the champions from the conference tournaments. If the conference champion hasn’t yet been determined, then the highest rated team is predicted to be the champion. All of the factors that we use are key indicators that are very good predictors of which teams will make the final tournament.

Note that below there are 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the winners of each conference are automatically included in the tournament. Because there are four play-in games, there are 2 seed groups that will have more than 4 teams.

Early in the season (pre-January) a lot of the teams may appear to have some strange seedings. Before teams get into conference play, there is a lot of projection that needs to be done to seed the teams. As we get into January and February, the projections are slowly worked out of the equation and only actual results are used.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference.
# denotes first round play-in game

Final: Updated on 3/12/2022 @ 5:23pm ET.

Bracketology – NCAA Tournament – Bubble Teams

Last Four In First Four Out Next Four Out
Nevada
Pittsburgh
Mississippi St
Rutgers
Arizona St
Oklahoma St
Clemson
North Carolina
Oregon
Wisconsin
Vanderbilt
Michigan

The team listed at the top of the “Last Four In” is the most vulnerable to miss the tournament.

Bracketology – 2023 NCAA Tournament Seeding Predictions

Projected Seed Team Conf Record Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Alabama
SEC*
28-5
10.20
1.366 (9)
Houston
AAC
31-2
10.11
0.581 (100)
Kansas
B12
27-7
10.07
1.690 (1)
Purdue
B10*
28-5
9.598
1.173 (25)
2 Seeds
UCLA
P12
29-5
8.998
1.063 (39)
Texas
B12*
26-8
8.892
1.413 (8)
Arizona
P12*
28-6
8.586
1.017 (49)
Marquette
BE*
28-6
8.062
1.072 (37)
3 Seeds
Gonzaga
WCC*
28-5
8.037
1.024 (47)
Baylor
B12
22-10
7.986
1.503 (4)
Kansas St
B12
23-9
7.176
1.307 (10)
Connecticut
BE
25-8
7.032
1.033 (45)
4 Seeds
Tennessee
SEC
23-10
7.010
1.117 (32)
Xavier
BE
25-9
6.904
1.227 (17)
Virginia
ACC
25-7
6.571
0.971 (57)
Indiana
B10
22-11
6.343
1.192 (19)
5 Seeds
Duke
ACC*
26-8
6.277
1.105 (34)
San Diego St
MWC*
27-6
6.201
1.037 (44)
Iowa St
B12
19-13
6.198
1.466 (6)
TCU
B12
21-12
6.132
1.165 (26)
6 Seeds
St Mary’s CA
WCC
26-7
5.972
1.008 (51)
Miami FL
ACC
25-7
5.967
0.776 (82)
Texas A&M
SEC
25-8
5.839
0.970 (58)
Creighton
BE
21-12
5.635
1.288 (12)
7 Seeds
Kentucky
SEC
21-11
5.501
1.101 (35)
Missouri
SEC
24-9
5.345
0.921 (63)
FL Atlantic
CUSA*
31-3
5.206
0.110 (138)
Northwestern
B10
21-11
5.205
1.074 (36)
8 Seeds
Michigan St
B10
19-12
5.173
1.452 (7)
Arkansas
SEC
20-13
5.170
1.300 (11)
Memphis
AAC*
25-8
5.156
0.824 (76)
Maryland
B10
21-12
5.152
1.063 (38)
9 Seeds
Illinois
B10
20-12
5.092
1.024 (46)
West Virginia
B12
19-14
4.922
1.511 (3)
Iowa
B10
19-13
4.897
1.140 (31)
Auburn
SEC
20-12
4.847
1.207 (18)
10 Seeds
Boise St
MWC
24-9
4.835
0.862 (69)
Penn St
B10
22-12
4.794
1.115 (33)
Utah St
MWC
26-8
4.627
0.938 (61)
USC
P12
22-10
4.593
0.954 (60)
11 Seeds
Providence
Big East
21-11
4.504
0.899 (66)
NC State
ACC
23-10
4.408
0.860 (70)
Rutgers
Big Ten#
19-14
4.350
1.013 (50)
Mississippi St
SEC#
21-12
4.335
0.932 (62)
Pittsburgh
ACC#
22-11
4.320
0.741 (87)
Nevada
MWC#
22-10
4.204
0.856 (71)
12 Seeds
VCU
A10*
26-7
3.397
0.312 (110)
Oral Roberts
SL*
30-4
3.219
-0.30 (220)
Drake
MVC*
27-7
2.972
-0.05 (159)
Col Charleston
CAA*
31-3
2.824
-0.41 (256)
13 Seeds
Kent
MAC*
28-6
2.526
-0.17 (190)
Iona
MAAC*
27-7
2.111
-0.36 (239)
Louisiana
SBC*
26-7
1.759
-0.10 (173)
Princeton
Ivy*
20-8
1.379
-0.37 (244)
14 Seeds
Furman
SC*
27-7
1.349
-0.47 (269)
UC Santa Barbara
BWC*
27-7
0.971
-0.29 (217)
Grand Canyon
WAC*
24-11
0.521
0.131 (132)
Kennesaw
ASC*
26-8
0.438
-0.18 (192)
15 Seeds
Colgate
PL*
26-8
0.395
-0.76 (323)
Montana St
BSC*
25-9
0.311
-0.28 (215)
Vermont
AEC*
23-10
0.079
-0.42 (258)
UNC Asheville
BSo*
27-7
-1.04
-0.66 (312)
16 Seeds
N Kentucky
HL*
22-12
-2.00
-0.38 (247)
TAM C. Christi
SLC*
23-10
-2.40
-0.97 (350)
Howard
MEAC*#
22-12
-3.80
-0.66 (313)
SE Missouri St
OVC*#
19-16
-6.32
-0.82 (336)
F Dickinson
NEC*#
19-15
-7.81
-1.39 (362)
TX Southern
SWAC*#
14-20
-8.88
-0.55 (290)

There are currently eleven teams that are ineligible for the 2023 tournament due to various reasons. Bellarmine, Lindenwood, Merrimack, Queens, St. Thomas, Southern Indiana, Stonehill, Tarleton State, Texas A&M-Commerce, UC San Diego, Utah Tech.

Bracketology – 2023 NIT Tournament Bracket Predictions

For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament.

All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT). It is important to note that early predictions will be flawed because of this rule. Typically, there are about seven to nine teams that win their conference in the regular season but don’t win their conference tournament and end up in the NIT. So, in early predictions, if your team is a seven or eight seed, then it is likely they won’t make the tournament because of these auto qualifiers.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference in the regular season.

Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Arizona St
P12
22-12
4.108
0.987 (53)
Oklahoma St
B12
18-15
4.006
1.483 (5)
Clemson
ACC
23-10
4.000
0.708 (93)
North Carolina
ACC
20-13
3.913
1.157 (30)
2 Seeds
Oregon
P12
19-14
3.624
1.180 (21)
Wisconsin
B10
17-14
3.569
1.245 (15)
Vanderbilt
SEC
20-14
3.399
1.162 (28)
Michigan
B10
17-15
3.339
1.173 (24)
3 Seeds
New Mexico
MWC
22-11
3.274
0.743 (84)
North Texas
CUSA
26-7
3.237
0.227 (119)
UAB
CUSA
25-9
3.104
0.158 (126)
Santa Clara
WCC
23-9
2.890
0.738 (88)
4 Seeds
Cincinnati
AAC
21-12
2.822
0.662 (97)
Liberty
ASC
26-8
2.708
-0.19 (197)
Virginia Tech
ACC
19-14
2.536
0.839 (73)
Dayton
A10
22-11
2.485
0.271 (112)
5 Seeds
Villanova
BE
17-16
2.419
1.177 (22)
Florida
SEC
16-16
2.312
1.162 (27)
Bradley
MVC*
25-9
2.241
-0.00 (152)
Toledo
MAC*
27-7
2.180
-0.34 (233)
6 Seeds
Sam Houston St
WAC*
25-7
2.162
0.111 (137)
Yale
Ivy*
21-7
2.138
-0.25 (208)
Seton Hall
BE
17-15
2.018
1.173 (23)
Utah Valley
WAC
25-8
1.902
0.091 (141)
7 Seeds
Wake Forest
ACC
19-14
1.733
0.864 (68)
Hofstra
CAA*
24-9
1.623
-0.23 (205)
Southern Miss
SBC*
25-7
1.348
-0.20 (198)
UC Irvine
BWC*
23-11
0.162
-0.06 (164)
8 Seeds
Youngstown St
HL*
24-9
-0.69
-0.73 (320)
E Washington
BSC*
22-10
-0.79
-0.32 (228)
Morehead St
OVC*
21-11
-4.49
-0.74 (321)
Alcorn St
SWAC*
18-13
-4.90
-0.79 (329)