Welcome to our Bracketology page! Here we plan to prep you for everything that will take place during March Madness! To come up with our bracketology predictions, we use a combination of variables including our own NCAA college basketball ratings, RPI, strength of schedule (SOS), and few other factors to come up with the Bracket Rating. As is customary with the NCAA tournament, we also include the automatic qualifiers which are the champions from the conference tournaments. If the conference champion hasn’t yet been determined, then the highest rated team is predicted to be the champion. All of the factors that we use are key indicators that are very good predictors of which teams will make the final tournament.
Note that below there are 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the winners of each conference are automatically included in the tournament. Because there are four play-in games, there are 2 seed groups that will have more than 4 teams.
Early in the season (pre-January) a lot of the teams may appear to have some strange seedings. Before teams get into conference play, there is a lot of projection that needs to be done to seed the teams. As we get into January and February, the projections are slowly worked out of the equation and only actual results are used.
* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference.
# denotes first round play-in game
Final: Updated on 3/13/2022 @ 4:55pm ET.
Bracketology – NCAA Tournament – Bubble Teams
| Last Four In |
First Four Out |
Next Four Out |
Texas A&M
Indiana
Wyoming
Michigan |
SMU
Wake Forest
Rutgers
Xavier |
VCU
Oklahoma
BYU
North Texas |
The team listed at the top of the “Last Four In” is the most vulnerable to miss the tournament.
Bracketology – 2022 NCAA Tournament Seeding Predictions
| Projected Seed |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Rating |
SOS (Rank) |
| 1 Seeds |
Gonzaga |
WCC* |
26-3 |
10.50 |
0.533 (91) |
| Arizona |
P12* |
31-3 |
9.501 |
0.829 (57) |
| Kansas |
B12* |
28-6 |
9.175 |
1.280 (2) |
| Baylor |
B12 |
26-6 |
9.141 |
1.023 (26) |
| 2 Seeds |
Kentucky |
SEC |
26-7 |
8.912 |
0.906 (44) |
| Auburn |
SEC |
27-5 |
8.881 |
0.956 (34) |
| Purdue |
B10* |
27-6 |
8.079 |
0.969 (30) |
| Duke |
ACC |
28-6 |
8.068 |
0.736 (70) |
| 3 Seeds |
Villanova |
BE* |
26-7 |
7.984 |
1.184 (5) |
| Tennessee |
SEC* |
25-7 |
7.929 |
1.126 (11) |
| Texas Tech |
B12 |
25-9 |
7.320 |
0.923 (40) |
| Wisconsin |
B10 |
24-7 |
7.198 |
1.079 (15) |
| 4 Seeds |
UCLA |
P12 |
25-7 |
6.924 |
1.040 (21) |
| Illinois |
B10 |
22-9 |
6.669 |
1.079 (14) |
| Arkansas |
SEC |
25-8 |
6.239 |
0.907 (43) |
| Providence |
BE |
25-5 |
6.134 |
0.914 (41) |
| 5 Seeds |
Connecticut |
BE |
23-9 |
6.033 |
0.907 (42) |
| Houston |
AAC* |
28-5 |
5.730 |
0.591 (87) |
| Iowa |
B10 |
25-9 |
5.665 |
0.810 (60) |
| St Mary’s CA |
WCC |
25-7 |
5.505 |
0.775 (65) |
| 6 Seeds |
Texas |
B12 |
21-11 |
5.416 |
0.935 (38) |
| LSU |
SEC |
22-11 |
5.351 |
0.965 (32) |
| Colorado St |
MWC |
25-5 |
5.332 |
0.596 (86) |
| Alabama |
SEC |
19-13 |
5.261 |
1.313 (1) |
| 7 Seeds |
Michigan St |
B10 |
22-12 |
4.963 |
1.161 (7) |
| Ohio St |
B10 |
19-11 |
4.879 |
1.025 (25) |
| Boise St |
MWC* |
27-7 |
4.774 |
0.635 (83) |
| USC |
P12 |
26-7 |
4.727 |
0.731 (72) |
| 8 Seeds |
Murray St |
OVC* |
30-2 |
4.687 |
-0.41 (261) |
| TCU |
B12 |
20-12 |
4.572 |
1.055 (18) |
| Seton Hall |
BE |
21-10 |
4.555 |
1.040 (20) |
| North Carolina |
ACC |
24-9 |
4.499 |
0.845 (54) |
| 9 Seeds |
San Diego St |
MWC |
23-8 |
4.499 |
0.760 (66) |
| Creighton |
BE |
22-11 |
4.479 |
1.015 (27) |
| Memphis |
AAC |
21-9 |
4.399 |
0.713 (74) |
| Marquette |
BE |
19-12 |
4.384 |
1.110 (12) |
| 10 Seeds |
Iowa St |
B12 |
20-12 |
4.360 |
0.960 (33) |
| San Francisco |
WCC |
24-9 |
4.255 |
0.662 (78) |
| Davidson |
A10 |
27-5 |
4.235 |
0.194 (121) |
| Miami FL |
ACC |
23-10 |
4.060 |
0.730 (73) |
| 11 Seeds |
Loyola-Chicago |
MVC* |
25-7 |
4.014 |
0.241 (118) |
| Virginia Tech |
ACC* |
23-12 |
3.986 |
0.704 (76) |
| Notre Dame |
ACC |
22-10 |
3.880 |
0.706 (75) |
| Michigan |
B10# |
17-14 |
3.808 |
1.245 (3) |
| Wyoming |
MWC# |
25-8 |
3.734 |
0.466 (99) |
| 12 Seeds |
Indiana |
B10# |
20-13 |
3.730 |
0.942 (35) |
| Texas A&M |
SEC# |
23-11 |
3.702 |
0.803 (62) |
| UAB |
CUSA* |
27-7 |
3.000 |
-0.02 (159) |
| S Dakota St |
SL* |
30-4 |
2.629 |
-0.33 (241) |
| Vermont |
AEC* |
28-5 |
2.327 |
-0.60 (308) |
| 13 Seeds |
Chattanooga |
SC* |
27-7 |
2.270 |
-0.04 (162) |
| New Mexico St |
WAC* |
26-6 |
2.027 |
0.088 (133) |
| Richmond |
A10* |
22-12 |
2.007 |
0.448 (105) |
| Montana St |
BSC* |
27-7 |
0.050 |
-0.43 (272) |
| 14 Seeds |
Akron |
MAC* |
24-9 |
-0.16 |
-0.32 (238) |
| Delaware |
CAA* |
22-12 |
-0.75 |
-0.22 (210) |
| Yale |
Ivy* |
18-11 |
-1.14 |
-0.16 (192) |
| St Peter’s |
MAAC* |
19-11 |
-1.14 |
-0.22 (209) |
| 15 Seeds |
Colgate |
PL* |
23-11 |
-1.24 |
-0.66 (321) |
| CS Fullerton |
BWC* |
21-10 |
-1.37 |
-0.21 (205) |
| Georgia St |
SBC* |
18-10 |
-1.42 |
-0.14 (184) |
| Longwood |
BSo* |
26-6 |
-1.44 |
-0.75 (340) |
| 16 Seeds |
Jacksonville St |
ASC* |
21-10 |
-1.58 |
-0.42 (270) |
| Norfolk St |
MEAC* |
24-6 |
-1.74 |
-1.21 (358) |
| Bryant |
NEC*# |
22-9 |
-1.81 |
-0.79 (345) |
| Wright St |
HL*# |
21-13 |
-2.75 |
-0.58 (301) |
TX Southern |
SWAC*# |
18-12 |
-3.31 |
-0.80 (346) |
| TAM C. Christi |
SLC*# |
23-11 |
-4.35 |
-1.10 (357) |
There are currently nine teams that are ineligible for the 2022 tournament due to various reasons. Bellarmine, California Baptist, Dixie State, Merrimack, North Alabama, Oklahoma State, St. Thomas, Tarleton State, and UC San Diego.
Bracketology – 2022 NIT Tournament Bracket Predictions
For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament.
All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT). It is important to note that early predictions will be flawed because of this rule. Typically, there are about seven to nine teams that win their conference in the regular season but don’t win their conference tournament and end up in the NIT. So, in early predictions, if your team is a seven or eight seed, then it is likely they won’t make the tournament because of these auto qualifiers.
* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference in the regular season.
| Seed |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Bracket Rating |
SOS (Rank) |
| 1 Seeds |
SMU |
AAC |
23-8 |
3.663 |
0.455 (102) |
| Wake Forest |
ACC |
23-9 |
3.656 |
0.485 (96) |
| Rutgers |
B10 |
18-13 |
3.513 |
0.819 (58) |
| Xavier |
BE |
18-13 |
3.473 |
1.093 (13) |
| 2 Seeds |
VCU |
A10 |
21-9 |
3.446 |
0.589 (88) |
| Oklahoma |
B12 |
18-15 |
3.431 |
1.149 (9) |
| BYU |
WCC |
22-10 |
3.431 |
0.657 (80) |
| North Texas |
CUSA* |
24-6 |
3.418 |
0.208 (120) |
| 3 Seeds |
Florida |
SEC |
19-13 |
2.856 |
0.888 (48) |
| Dayton |
A10 |
23-10 |
2.821 |
0.267 (113) |
| St Bonaventure |
A10 |
20-9 |
2.697 |
0.478 (98) |
| Colorado |
P12 |
21-11 |
2.647 |
0.752 (67) |
| 4 Seeds |
Belmont |
OVC |
25-7 |
2.620 |
-0.30 (228) |
| St Louis |
A10 |
23-11 |
2.598 |
0.463 (101) |
| Oregon |
P12 |
19-14 |
2.394 |
0.941 (36) |
| Santa Clara |
WCC |
21-11 |
2.173 |
0.496 (94) |
| 5 Seeds |
Vanderbilt |
SEC |
17-16 |
1.979 |
0.905 (45) |
| Mississippi St |
SEC |
18-15 |
1.957 |
0.876 (49) |
| Drake |
MVC |
23-10 |
1.906 |
0.133 (124) |
| Missouri St |
MVC |
23-10 |
1.891 |
0.064 (139) |
| 6 Seeds |
Iona |
MAAC* |
25-7 |
1.850 |
-0.10 (177) |
| St John’s |
BE |
17-15 |
1.828 |
0.855 (52) |
| Toledo |
MAC* |
26-7 |
1.789 |
-0.22 (211) |
| Virginia |
ACC |
19-13 |
1.698 |
0.701 (77) |
| 7 Seeds |
Towson |
CAA* |
25-8 |
1.282 |
-0.17 (197) |
| Northern Iowa |
MVC* |
19-11 |
0.757 |
0.265 (114) |
| Princeton |
Ivy* |
23-5 |
0.691 |
-0.48 (285) |
| Texas St |
SBC* |
21-7 |
-0.05 |
-0.29 (224) |
| 8 Seeds |
Long Beach St |
BWC* |
20-12 |
-1.25 |
0.131 (125) |
| Cleveland St |
HL* |
20-10 |
-2.03 |
-0.62 (311) |
| Nicholls St |
SLC* |
21-11 |
-2.90 |
-0.73 (329) |
| Alcorn St |
SWAC* |
17-16 |
-5.96 |
-0.57 (299) |
