Bracketology


Tournament Bracket

Welcome to our Bracketology page! Here we plan to prep you for everything that will take place during March Madness! To come up with our bracketology predictions, we use a combination of variables including our own NCAA college basketball ratings, RPI, strength of schedule (SOS), and few other factors to come up with the Bracket Rating. As is customary with the NCAA tournament, we also include the automatic qualifiers which are the champions from the conference tournaments. If the conference champion hasn’t yet been determined, then the highest rated team is predicted to be the champion. All of the factors that we use are key indicators that are very good predictors of which teams will make the final tournament.

Note that below there are 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the winners of each conference are automatically included in the tournament. Because there are four play-in games, there are 2 seed groups that will have more than 4 teams.

Early in the season (pre-January) a lot of the teams may appear to have some strange seedings. Before teams get into conference play, there is a lot of projection that needs to be done to seed the teams. As we get into January and February, the projections are slowly worked out of the equation and only actual results are used.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference.
# denotes first round play-in game

Updated on 12/17/2018.

Bracketology – NCAA Tournament – Bubble Teams

Last Four In First Four Out Next Four Out
Florida
Oregon
Arizona
Utah St
UCLA
Seton Hall
Clemson
Washington
San Francisco
Temple
Colorado
Arkansas


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Bracketology – 2019 NCAA Tournament Seeding Predictions

Projected Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Kansas
Big 12*
9-0
15.98
1.694 (1)
Michigan
Big Ten*
11-0
12.90
0.360 (55)
Duke
ACC*
9-1
12.81
0.530 (39)
Gonzaga
WCC*
9-2
11.69
1.375 (2)
2 Seeds
Michigan St
Big Ten
9-2
11.49
0.931 (12)
Tennessee
SEC*
8-1
11.31
0.563 (34)
Wisconsin
Big Ten
9-2
11.08
0.820 (19)
Virginia
ACC
9-0
10.41
-0.36 (176)
3 Seeds
Nevada
MWC*
11-0
10.28
0.391 (53)
North Carolina
ACC
8-2
10.02
0.682 (25)
Oklahoma
Big 12
9-1
9.712
1.137 (5)
Indiana
Big Ten
9-2
9.409
0.811 (20)
4 Seeds
Florida St
ACC
8-1
9.315
0.692 (24)
Texas Tech
Big 12
10-0
9.010
-0.72 (244)
Marquette
Big East*
8-2
8.402
0.617 (31)
Nebraska
Big Ten
9-2
8.353
0.400 (52)
5 Seeds
Ohio St
Big Ten
9-1
8.347
-0.04 (122)
Virginia Tech
ACC
9-1
8.344
-0.11 (137)
Mississippi St
SEC
9-1
8.260
0.043 (108)
Louisville
ACC
8-3
8.252
0.962 (8)
6 Seeds
Auburn
SEC
9-1
8.233
-0.23 (155)
Villanova
Big East
8-4
8.102
0.835 (17)
Arizona St
Pac-12*
8-1
7.774
0.346 (57)
Buffalo
MAC*
10-0
7.523
-0.35 (174)
7 Seeds
Houston
AAC*
10-0
7.290
-0.44 (192)
Cincinnati
AAC
9-2
7.006
0.192 (84)
Texas
Big 12
7-3
6.966
0.946 (11)
TCU
Big 12
8-1
6.791
-0.00 (115)
8 Seeds
Kansas St
Big 12
7-2
6.698
0.258 (72)
Maryland
Big Ten
9-2
6.599
-0.03 (121)
Iowa St
Big 12
9-2
6.460
-0.11 (139)
Minnesota
Big Ten
9-2
6.356
0.502 (41)
9 Seeds
Kentucky
SEC
8-2
6.245
-0.39 (181)
LSU
SEC
8-3
6.131
0.535 (37)
Creighton
Big East
7-3
6.106
0.844 (16)
Butler
Big East
7-3
6.099
0.500 (42)
10 Seeds
St John’s
Big East
10-0
6.021
-0.83 (258)
NC State
ACC
9-1
5.729
-1.15 (321)
Syracuse
ACC
7-3
5.566
0.285 (67)
Iowa
Big Ten
8-2
5.507
0.610 (32)
11 Seeds
Mississippi
SEC
8-2
5.487
0.097 (98)
Belmont
OVC*
8-1
5.475
-0.03 (119)
Notre Dame
ACC
7-3
5.446
0.449 (49)
Utah St
MWC#
9-2
5.349
-0.17 (148)
Arizona
Pac-12#
7-4
5.343
0.831 (18)
12 Seeds
Oregon
Pac-12#
7-3
5.332
0.209 (79)
Florida
SEC#
5-4
5.312
0.919 (13)
Lipscomb
ASUN*
7-3
5.021
-0.00 (117)
Davidson
A-10*
8-2
4.572
0.051 (105)
New Mexico St
WAC*
7-2
4.432
-0.16 (146)
13 Seeds
UC Irvine
Big West*
10-2
4.036
-0.34 (172)
Col Charleston
Colonial*
9-2
3.861
-0.42 (187)
Wofford
Southern*
9-3
3.766
-1.02 (295)
Penn
Ivy*
9-2
3.609
-0.74 (249)
14 Seeds
Old Dominion
CUSA*
8-3
3.487
-0.26 (161)
Vermont
AEC*
8-3
3.408
0.146 (90)
Georgia St
Sun Belt*
7-4
2.799
0.562 (35)
S Illinois
MVC*
7-5
2.482
0.472 (46)
15 Seeds
N Colorado
Big Sky*
6-2
2.409
-0.83 (257)
Liberty
Big South*
9-2
2.357
-1.67 (347)
S Dakota St
Summit*
9-4
2.203
-1.00 (289)
N Kentucky
Horizon*
9-3
2.013
-1.20 (326)
16 Seeds
Holy Cross
Patriot*
6-4
1.755
0.344 (58)
Abilene Chr
Southland*
9-2
1.527
-1.39 (340)
Rider
MAAC*#
4-3
0.018
-0.71 (239)
St Francis NY
NEC*#
7-4
-1.88
-1.15 (322)
TX Southern
SWAC*#
4-6
-2.43
0.724 (22)
Howard
MEAC*#
5-5
-5.20
-1.00 (290)

There is currently one team that is ineligible for the 2019 tournament due to APR. That team is Alabama A&M.


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Bracketology – 2019 NIT Tournament Bracket Predictions

For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament.

All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT). It is important to note that early predictions will be flawed because of this rule. Typically, there are about seven to nine teams that win their conference in the regular season but don’t win their conference tournament and end up in the NIT. So, in early predictions, if your team is a seven or eight seed, then it is likely they won’t make the tournament because of these auto qualifiers.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference in the regular season.

Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
UCLA
Pac-12
7-3
5.267
0.200 (81)
Seton Hall
Big East
7-3
5.230
0.507 (40)
Clemson
ACC
7-3
5.206
0.256 (73)
Washington
Pac-12
7-4
5.160
0.947 (10)
2 Seeds
San Francisco
WCC
10-1
5.097
-0.87 (268)
Temple
AAC
9-2
5.019
0.216 (77)
Colorado
Pac-12
8-1
5.000
-0.37 (178)
Arkansas
SEC
7-2
4.906
-0.16 (147)
3 Seeds
UCF
AAC
9-2
4.821
-0.22 (153)
Purdue
Big Ten
6-5
4.665
1.217 (4)
Xavier
Big East
7-4
4.627
0.672 (26)
St Louis
A-10
7-3
4.464
0.281 (68)
4 Seeds
San Diego
WCC
9-3
4.416
-0.16 (145)
Fresno St
MWC
7-2
4.255
-0.32 (168)
Toledo
MAC
10-1
4.227
-0.85 (262)
Providence
Big East
8-3
4.207
0.126 (91)
5 Seeds
Loy Marymount
WCC
10-1
4.121
-0.87 (267)
Murray St
OVC
7-1
4.112
-0.96 (282)
VA Commonwealth
A-10
7-4
4.096
0.627 (30)
Vanderbilt
SEC
6-2
4.026
-0.43 (190)
6 Seeds
Alabama
SEC
6-3
3.889
0.351 (56)
Oregon St
Pac-12
6-3
3.676
0.147 (89)
Georgia Tech
ACC
5-3
3.432
0.152 (87)
St Mary’s CA
WCC
7-5
3.426
0.320 (62)
7 Seeds
DePaul
Big East
7-2
3.425
-0.54 (201)
Connecticut
AAC
8-3
3.360
-0.57 (209)
West Virginia
Big 12
6-4
3.318
0.073 (103)
BYU
WCC
8-4
3.317
-0.34 (171)
8 Seeds
Boston College
ACC
8-2
3.316
-0.52 (200)
Rhode Island
A-10
5-3
3.279
0.295 (66)
Baylor
Big 12
6-3
3.278
-0.28 (164)
Tulsa
AAC
9-3
3.265
-0.25 (160)