Stoke City at Derby County

Updated

Stoke City

27.3%27.6%45.2%
Stoke City WinDrawDerby County Win
0.98Projected Goals 1.35
0Final Score 0

Derby County

Last 5 Games

Stoke City
Money Line
L 2-0 vs Sheffield United+135
L 0-6 at Leeds United+1100
W 0-2 vs Sheffield Wednesday+125
W 1-0 at Cardiff City+230
T 1-1 vs Luton Town+140
Derby County
Money Line
W 1-0 at Hull City+255
W 3-1 at West Bromwich Albion+355
L 1-0 vs Luton Town+150
T 2-2 at Portsmouth+225
T 0-0 vs Burnley+390

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:2.4%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:4.1%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Stoke City+340+316+310+295+323+295+323+326.3
Derby County-105+119+115+125+116+125+125+142.8
Draw+200+191+170+162+178+162+191+182.8
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Stoke City+400---+330+315+330+326.3
Derby County+105----105+115+115+142.8
Draw+175---+160+190+190+182.8

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Stoke City: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Stoke City: 0.0%
Derby County: 10.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Stoke City: 20.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Stoke City: 0.0%
Derby County: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Stoke City ML moved from +310 to +295
Derby County ML moved from +121 to +114

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Stoke City: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Stoke City: 0.0%
Derby County: 10.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Stoke City: 10.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Stoke City: 10.0%
Derby County: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Stoke City ML moved from +335 to +315
Derby County ML moved from +100 to -105

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:1.7%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo2-128o2+110o1¾-130o1¾-118o1¾-126o1¾-118o1¾-118o1¾-107
Underu2+108u2-129u1¾+110u1¾-102u1¾+104u1¾-102u1¾+110u1¾+107
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o1¾-107
Under-----u1¾+107

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 10.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 10.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Over: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 10.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes46.3%
 
No53.7%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 09.73%
Exactly 226.41%
Exactly 411.94%
Exactly 62.16%
Exactly 80.21%
 
Exactly 122.67%
Exactly 320.51%
Exactly 55.57%
Exactly 70.72%
Exact Goals Scored - Stoke City
Exactly 037.46%
Exactly 136.78%
Exactly 218.06%
Exactly 35.91%
Exactly 41.45%
Exactly 50.28%
Exact Goals Scored - Derby County
Exactly 025.98%
Exactly 135.02%
Exactly 223.60%
Exactly 310.60%
Exactly 43.57%
Exactly 50.96%
Exactly 60.22%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 034.01%
Exactly 219.78%
Exactly 41.92%
 
Exactly 136.68%
Exactly 37.11%
Exactly 50.41%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Stoke City
Exactly 063.47%
Exactly 128.85%
Exactly 26.56%
Exactly 30.99%
Exactly 40.11%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Derby County
Exactly 053.58%
Exactly 133.43%
Exactly 210.43%
Exactly 32.17%
Exactly 40.34%

Alternate Props

Spread

Stoke City
Wins by 2+ goals9.79%
Wins by 3+ goals2.66%
Wins by 4+ goals0.55%
Derby County
Wins by 2+ goals21.17%
Wins by 3+ goals7.73%
Wins by 4+ goals2.25%
Wins by 5+ goals0.52%

Exact Winning Margin

Stoke City
Derby County
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
Stoke City
Wins by 1 goal17.44%
Wins by 2 goals7.13%
Wins by 3 goals2.11%
Wins by 4 goals0.48%
Derby County
Wins by 1 goal23.94%
Wins by 2 goals13.45%
Wins by 3 goals5.47%
Wins by 4 goals1.73%
Wins by 5 goals0.44%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.590.27%9.73%
1.567.59%32.41%
2.541.18%58.82%
3.520.67%79.33%
4.58.72%91.28%
5.53.16%96.84%

Total Goals Stoke City Over/Under

OverUnder
0.562.54%37.46%
1.525.76%74.24%
2.57.70%92.30%
3.51.79%98.21%

Total Goals Derby County Over/Under

OverUnder
0.574.02%25.98%
1.539.00%61.00%
2.515.40%84.60%
3.54.80%95.20%
4.51.23%98.77%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.565.99%34.01%
1.529.31%70.69%
2.59.53%90.47%
3.52.42%97.58%

Score Props

Correct Score

Stoke City
Derby County
Score012345
0
9.73%
13.12%
8.84%
3.97%
1.34%
0.36%
1
9.56%
12.88%
8.68%
3.90%
1.31%
0.35%
2
4.69%
6.32%
4.26%
1.91%
0.65%
0.17%
3
1.54%
2.07%
1.39%
0.63%
0.21%
0.06%
4
0.38%
0.51%
0.34%
0.15%
0.05%
0.01%
Stoke City
1-09.56%
2-04.69%
2-16.32%
3-01.54%
3-12.07%
3-21.39%
4-00.38%
4-10.51%
4-20.34%
4-30.15%
Draw
0-09.73%
1-112.88%
2-24.26%
3-30.63%
Derby County
0-113.12%
0-28.84%
1-28.68%
0-33.97%
1-33.90%
2-31.91%
0-41.34%
1-41.31%
2-40.65%
3-40.21%
0-50.36%
1-50.35%
2-50.17%

Correct Score - First Half

Stoke City
Derby County
Score01234
0
34.01%
21.22%
6.62%
1.38%
0.21%
1
15.46%
9.65%
3.01%
0.63%
0.10%
2
3.51%
2.19%
0.68%
0.14%
0.02%
3
0.53%
0.33%
0.10%
0.02%
0.00%
Stoke City
1-015.46%
2-03.51%
2-12.19%
3-00.53%
3-10.33%
3-20.10%
Draw
0-034.01%
1-19.65%
2-20.68%
Derby County
0-121.22%
0-26.62%
1-23.01%
0-31.38%
1-30.63%
2-30.14%
0-40.21%
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