Newcastle Utd at Aston Villa

Updated

Newcastle United

33.0%27.3%39.8%
Newcastle Utd WinDrawAston Villa Win
1.16Projected Goals 1.29
3Final Score 1

Aston Villa

Last 5 Games

Newcastle United
Money Line
L 3-2 vs Manchester City+410
L 2-4 at Liverpool+665
L 3-1 vs Nottingham Forest-240
L 0-1 at Luton Town-160
W 0-3 vs Fulham-120
Aston Villa
Money Line
T 0-0 at Everton+167
W 2-3 vs Burnley-245
L 2-3 at Manchester United+190
T 1-1 vs Sheffield United-500
W 2-1 at Brentford+135

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
2.2%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
4.6%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Newcastle Utd+250+293+275+310+309+310+310+324.6
Aston Villa-110-115-115-120-121-120-115-111.3
Draw+310+298+300+306+311+306+311+320.5
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Newcastle Utd+265-+289-+255+295+295+324.6
Aston Villa-112--120--135-120-120-111.3
Draw+290-+300-+270+295+300+320.5

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Newcastle Utd: 50.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Newcastle Utd: 40.0%
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Newcastle Utd: 10.0%
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Newcastle Utd ML moved from +304 to +297
No Steam Moves On Aston Villa ML

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Newcastle Utd: 30.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Newcastle Utd: 40.0%
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Newcastle Utd: 0.0%
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Newcastle Utd ML
No Steam Moves On Aston Villa ML

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
2.6%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
3.9%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3-118o3-116o3-115o3-112o3-109o3-112o3-109o3-104
Underu3-102u3-102u3-105u3-104u3-105u3-104u3-102u3+104
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3-120o3-115o3-112-o3-125o3-115o3-112o3-104
Underu3+100u3-105u3-108-u3-105u3-105u3-105u3+104

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 20.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 20.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
The Under moved from u3¼-117 to u3-105

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 20.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 20.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes49.7%
 
No50.3%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 08.65%
Exactly 225.91%
Exactly 412.93%
Exactly 62.58%
Exactly 80.28%
 
Exactly 121.18%
Exactly 321.14%
Exactly 56.33%
Exactly 70.90%
Exact Goals Scored - Newcastle United
Exactly 031.57%
Exactly 136.40%
Exactly 220.98%
Exactly 38.06%
Exactly 42.32%
Exactly 50.54%
Exactly 60.10%
Exact Goals Scored - Aston Villa
Exactly 027.41%
Exactly 135.48%
Exactly 222.96%
Exactly 39.90%
Exactly 43.20%
Exactly 50.83%
Exactly 60.18%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 032.21%
Exactly 220.67%
Exactly 42.21%
 
Exactly 136.49%
Exactly 37.81%
Exactly 50.50%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Newcastle United
Exactly 058.63%
Exactly 131.30%
Exactly 28.36%
Exactly 31.49%
Exactly 40.20%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Aston Villa
Exactly 054.93%
Exactly 132.91%
Exactly 29.86%
Exactly 31.97%
Exactly 40.29%

Alternate Props

Spread

Newcastle United
Wins by 2+ goals13.44%
Wins by 3+ goals4.23%
Wins by 4+ goals1.06%
Wins by 5+ goals0.21%
Aston Villa
Wins by 2+ goals17.81%
Wins by 3+ goals6.21%
Wins by 4+ goals1.73%
Wins by 5+ goals0.38%

Exact Winning Margin

Newcastle United
Aston Villa
5
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
Newcastle United
Wins by 1 goal19.52%
Wins by 2 goals9.20%
Wins by 3 goals3.17%
Wins by 4 goals0.85%
Wins by 5 goals0.18%
Aston Villa
Wins by 1 goal21.91%
Wins by 2 goals11.59%
Wins by 3 goals4.48%
Wins by 4 goals1.35%
Wins by 5 goals0.33%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.591.35%8.65%
1.570.17%29.83%
2.544.25%55.75%
3.523.12%76.88%
4.510.19%89.81%
5.53.86%96.14%
6.51.28%98.72%

Total Goals Newcastle United Over/Under

OverUnder
0.568.43%31.57%
1.532.03%67.97%
2.511.05%88.95%
3.52.98%97.02%

Total Goals Aston Villa Over/Under

OverUnder
0.572.59%27.41%
1.537.11%62.89%
2.514.15%85.85%
3.54.25%95.75%
4.51.05%98.95%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.567.79%32.21%
1.531.30%68.70%
2.510.63%89.37%
3.52.82%97.18%

Score Props

Correct Score

Newcastle Utd
Aston Villa
Score012345
0
8.65%
11.20%
7.25%
3.13%
1.01%
0.26%
1
9.98%
12.91%
8.36%
3.60%
1.17%
0.30%
2
5.75%
7.44%
4.82%
2.08%
0.67%
0.17%
3
2.21%
2.86%
1.85%
0.80%
0.26%
0.07%
4
0.64%
0.82%
0.53%
0.23%
0.07%
0.02%
5
0.15%
0.19%
0.12%
0.05%
0.02%
0.00%
Newcastle United
1-09.98%
2-05.75%
2-17.44%
3-02.21%
3-12.86%
3-21.85%
4-00.64%
4-10.82%
4-20.53%
4-30.23%
5-00.15%
5-10.19%
5-20.12%
Draw
0-08.65%
1-112.91%
2-24.82%
3-30.80%
Aston Villa
0-111.20%
0-27.25%
1-28.36%
0-33.13%
1-33.60%
2-32.08%
0-41.01%
1-41.17%
2-40.67%
3-40.26%
0-50.26%
1-50.30%
2-50.17%

Correct Score - First Half

Newcastle Utd
Aston Villa
Score01234
0
32.21%
19.30%
5.78%
1.15%
0.17%
1
17.19%
10.30%
3.09%
0.62%
0.09%
2
4.59%
2.75%
0.82%
0.16%
0.02%
3
0.82%
0.49%
0.15%
0.03%
0.00%
4
0.11%
0.07%
0.02%
0.00%
0.00%
Newcastle United
1-017.19%
2-04.59%
2-12.75%
3-00.82%
3-10.49%
3-20.15%
4-00.11%
Draw
0-032.21%
1-110.30%
2-20.82%
Aston Villa
0-119.30%
0-25.78%
1-23.09%
0-31.15%
1-30.62%
2-30.16%
0-40.17%