France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Paris Saint-Germain
Montpellier
66.1%
14.6%
19.2%
-222
+590
-220
+550
6
2
-0.39821-0.42528-0.41346
Marseille
Rennes
33.4%
38.7%
27.8%
+168
+171
+160
+170
0
2
-1.01666-1.04120-0.94835
Metz
Reims
16.5%
60.5%
23.0%
+400
-127
+380
-130
1
2
-0.60314-0.60996-0.50274
Lorient
Monaco
12.1%
70.6%
17.4%
+689
-259
+650
-275
2
2
-1.75655-1.73693-1.75117
Le Havre
Clermont Foot
22.6%
50.1%
27.3%
+175
+185
+170
+180
1
2
-1.06927-1.07852-0.69099
Nice
Lens
20.5%
55.9%
23.5%
+336
+100
+280
+105
3
1
-1.48347-1.38326-1.58246
Strasbourg
Nantes
23.5%
51.6%
25.0%
+305
+111
+275
+110
3
1
-1.41358-1.37105-1.44932
Lyon
Toulouse
38.6%
34.7%
26.8%
+170
+184
+155
+185
3
2
-1.01401-0.98556-0.95231
Nantes
Marseille
14.9%
64.3%
20.7%
+626
-197
+610
-215
0
2
-0.43844-0.43135-0.44132
Rennes
Lille
21.3%
54.5%
24.2%
+350
-104
+315
-105
2
2
-1.27239-1.25931-1.41969
Monaco
Strasbourg
41.4%
32.1%
26.5%
+106
+257
+100
+250
1
0
-0.74767-0.74421-0.88240
Clermont Foot
Metz
27.3%
45.0%
27.7%
+267
+121
+245
+120
0
1
-0.82150-0.83924-0.79795
Toulouse
Le Havre
36.7%
34.0%
29.3%
+170
+192
+170
+185
0
1
-1.10142-1.10045-1.07869
Reims
Paris Saint-Germain
5.3%
82.7%
12.0%
+562
-199
+530
-215
2
2
-1.59327-1.60864-2.12260
Lyon
Lorient
40.8%
32.5%
26.6%
+120
+252
+115
+245
2
0
-0.81572-0.81340-0.89612
Lens
Lyon
25.8%
49.6%
24.6%
+187
+160
+180
+160
3
0
-1.08114-1.07790-1.35584
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 03/11/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (16-1-8, 56 pts)22.12.39.775.999.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Brest (13-5-7, 46 pts)16.18.49.557.80.0%49.9%34.5%0.0%
3Monaco (13-6-6, 45 pts)16.98.68.559.30.1%63.3%27.9%0.0%
4Lille (11-5-9, 42 pts)14.87.611.656.00.0%35.9%36.3%0.0%
5Lens (12-7-6, 42 pts)15.69.88.655.40.0%26.6%36.9%0.0%
6Nice (11-7-7, 40 pts)14.010.59.551.60.0%4.7%17.2%0.0%
7Marseille (10-6-9, 39 pts)14.18.511.453.70.0%17.5%32.3%0.0%
8Rennes (9-7-9, 36 pts)12.89.711.549.90.0%2.1%12.7%0.0%
9Reims (10-10-5, 35 pts)12.913.57.646.40.0%0.0%1.7%0.0%
10Lyon (9-12-4, 31 pts)12.515.06.643.90.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
11Toulouse (7-10-8, 29 pts)9.513.910.639.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
12Montpellier (6-10-9, 27 pts)9.413.211.439.50.0%0.0%0.3%2.1%
13Le Havre (6-10-9, 27 pts)8.114.711.335.50.0%0.0%0.0%13.7%
14Strasbourg (6-11-8, 26 pts)9.114.310.638.00.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
15Lorient (6-12-7, 25 pts)8.516.09.535.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
16Nantes (7-14-4, 25 pts)10.217.36.537.10.0%0.0%0.0%7.5%
17Metz (6-14-5, 23 pts)8.218.77.231.70.0%0.0%0.0%56.1%
18Clermont Foot (3-14-8, 17 pts)5.318.310.426.30.0%0.0%0.0%95.4%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.