France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 27, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Le Havre
Paris Saint-Germain 		3.0%
88.5%		8.6%
+859
-305
+850
-325
0.45
3.09		3.54
o3+102
u3-120
o3+100
u3-120
Games for Apr 26, 2024
Games for Apr 28, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Nantes
Montpellier 		25.7%
49.2%		25.1%
+280
+107
+275
+100
2.66
o2½-104
u2½-108
o2½-110
u2½-110
2nd H
79:00		1
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lorient
Montpellier		19.0%
59.1%		21.9%
+325
-119
+315
-125
0
2		-0.63820-0.63936-0.52643
Clermont Foot
Paris Saint-Germain		3.5%
87.3%		9.1%
+865
-290
+900
-370
1
1		-1.74818-1.85125-2.39679
Le Havre
Lens		10.6%
71.1%		18.3%
+645
-199
+600
-205
1
1		-1.50828-1.49598-1.69707
Marseille
Lille		27.9%
45.3%		26.8%
+335
-108
+310
-105
1
3		-0.67824-0.70613-0.79279
Paris Saint-Germain
Marseille		49.3%
25.3%		25.4%
+107
+280
+100
+265
2
0		-0.73691-0.73643-0.70757
Rennes
Strasbourg		35.8%
36.1%		28.1%
+134
+223
+130
+215
0
2		-1.20141-1.19690-1.01771
Montpellier
Le Havre		44.6%
28.1%		27.4%
+170
+185
+175
+175
2
0		-1.01724-1.05535-0.80831
Toulouse
Clermont Foot		33.4%
38.5%		28.1%
+105
+290
+105
+275
3
0		-0.74343-0.76529-1.09628
Reims
Lyon		18.7%
58.4%		22.9%
+267
+108
+250
+105
1
1		-1.33750-1.33094-1.47517
Monaco
Metz		55.7%
21.0%		23.3%
-154
+450
-160
+415
5
2		-0.51565-0.53479-0.58557
Lens
Lille		20.1%
56.4%		23.5%
+267
+118
+265
+105
1
2		-0.80860-0.76819-0.57252
Paris Saint-Germain
Montpellier		66.1%
14.6%		19.2%
-222
+590
-220
+550
6
2		-0.39821-0.42528-0.41346
Marseille
Rennes		33.4%
38.7%		27.8%
+168
+171
+160
+170
0
2		-1.01666-1.04120-0.94835
Metz
Reims		16.5%
60.5%		23.0%
+400
-127
+380
-130
1
2		-0.60314-0.60996-0.50274
Lorient
Monaco		12.1%
70.6%		17.4%
+689
-259
+650
-275
2
2		-1.75655-1.73693-1.75117
Le Havre
Clermont Foot		22.6%
50.1%		27.3%
+175
+185
+170
+180
1
2		-1.06927-1.07852-0.69099
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/22/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (19-1-9, 66 pts)22.71.59.877.8100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Monaco (16-6-7, 55 pts)18.07.68.462.40.0%87.5%12.5%0.0%
3Brest (15-7-8, 53 pts)16.48.49.258.40.0%36.4%62.3%0.0%
4Lille (14-5-10, 52 pts)16.36.311.460.20.0%74.1%25.6%0.0%
5Nice (13-8-8, 47 pts)14.610.19.353.00.0%1.7%52.6%0.0%
6Lens (13-10-7, 46 pts)14.511.38.251.60.0%0.3%32.1%0.0%
7Rennes (11-10-9, 42 pts)12.711.210.148.20.0%0.0%3.6%0.0%
8Lyon (12-13-5, 41 pts)13.614.36.146.90.0%0.0%0.9%0.0%
9Marseille (10-9-10, 40 pts)12.410.311.448.50.0%0.0%10.0%0.0%
10Reims (11-12-7, 40 pts)12.313.68.145.10.0%0.0%0.4%0.0%
11Toulouse (9-11-10, 37 pts)10.112.711.141.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Montpellier (9-11-10, 37 pts)10.312.511.242.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Strasbourg (9-12-9, 36 pts)10.513.310.241.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Nantes (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.418.45.236.40.0%0.0%0.0%1.0%
15Metz (8-17-5, 29 pts)8.719.45.932.10.0%0.0%0.0%27.4%
16Le Havre (6-14-10, 28 pts)6.816.310.931.20.0%0.0%0.0%34.3%
17Lorient (6-15-8, 26 pts)7.317.59.331.10.0%0.0%0.0%43.0%
18Clermont Foot (4-16-10, 22 pts)5.117.911.126.30.0%0.0%0.0%94.3%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.