Spain La Liga Predictions

We started predicting La Liga games in 2013 using data from previous games to come up with our estimates. These La Liga predictions don’t account for weather, injuries, red cards or any other factors that may be cause the result of the game to be swayed in one direction or another. See my disclaimer page for more information about these predictions: Predictions Disclaimer

As the La Liga season rolls on, we also project how the teams will finish at the end of the campaign. For our latest season projections, scroll to the bottom of this page.

These La Liga soccer predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. However, if you do wish to place bets, then please read the sportsbook information page at: Sportsbook Reviews and Ratings.

Week 37 Spain La Liga Predictions

Date Away Home Odds to Win ML Prediction Score Proj Total Goals
5/12 Celta Vigo Ath Bilbao Ath Bilbao to win: 31.7% Ath Bilbao +216 1.12 2.37
Celta Vigo to win: 38.4% Celta Vigo +161 1.24
Odds to Draw: 29.9% Draw +235 —
5/12 Sevilla Atl. Madrid Atl. Madrid to win: 67.7% Atl. Madrid -210 1.94 2.67
Sevilla to win: 11.7% Sevilla +755 0.72
Odds to Draw: 20.6% Draw +386 —
5/12 Getafe Barcelona Barcelona to win: 73.6% Barcelona -279 2.38 3.09
Getafe to win: 8.9% Getafe +1024 0.70
Odds to Draw: 17.5% Draw +472 —
5/12 Huesca Betis Betis to win: 65.8% Betis -193 1.87 2.62
Huesca to win: 12.7% Huesca +688 0.74
Odds to Draw: 21.5% Draw +366 —
5/12 Levante Girona Girona to win: 44% Girona +128 1.26 2.23
Levante to win: 26.9% Levante +272 0.97
Odds to Draw: 29.1% Draw +244 —
5/12 Espanyol Leganes Leganes to win: 31.8% Leganes +215 0.95 2.01
Espanyol to win: 38.3% Espanyol +162 1.05
Odds to Draw: 29.9% Draw +235 —
5/12 Valladolid Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano to win: 53.4% Rayo Vallecano -115 1.54 2.43
Valladolid to win: 20% Valladolid +400 0.89
Odds to Draw: 26.6% Draw +276 —
5/12 Real Madrid Real Sociedad Real Sociedad to win: 21.2% Real Sociedad +372 1.15 3.09
Real Madrid to win: 51.6% Real Madrid -107 1.93
Odds to Draw: 27.2% Draw +268 —
5/12 Alaves Valencia Valencia to win: 65.7% Valencia -192 1.72 2.42
Alaves to win: 12.7% Alaves +688 0.70
Odds to Draw: 21.6% Draw +363 —
5/12 Eibar Villarreal Villarreal to win: 54.5% Villarreal -120 1.58 2.47
Eibar to win: 19.2% Eibar +421 0.89
Odds to Draw: 26.3% Draw +281 —

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Week 38 Spain La Liga Predictions

Date Away Home Odds to Win ML Prediction Score Proj Total Goals
5/18 Girona Alaves Alaves to win: 54.7% Alaves -121 1.33 2.10
Girona to win: 19.1% Girona +424 0.76
Odds to Draw: 26.2% Draw +282 —
5/18 Rayo Vallecano Celta Vigo Celta Vigo to win: 75% Celta Vigo -300 2.35 3.02
Rayo Vallecano to win: 8.3% Rayo Vallecano +1105 0.67
Odds to Draw: 16.7% Draw +499 —
5/18 Barcelona Eibar Eibar to win: 13.1% Eibar +664 0.89 3.15
Barcelona to win: 65% Barcelona -186 2.26
Odds to Draw: 21.9% Draw +357 —
5/18 Real Sociedad Espanyol Espanyol to win: 41.9% Espanyol +139 1.30 2.36
Real Sociedad to win: 28.6% Real Sociedad +250 1.06
Odds to Draw: 29.5% Draw +239 —
5/18 Villarreal Getafe Getafe to win: 57.7% Getafe -137 1.54 2.33
Villarreal to win: 17.2% Villarreal +482 0.79
Odds to Draw: 25.1% Draw +299 —
5/18 Leganes Huesca Huesca to win: 55.8% Huesca -127 1.47 2.27
Leganes to win: 18.4% Leganes +444 0.80
Odds to Draw: 25.8% Draw +288 —
5/18 Atl. Madrid Levante Levante to win: 26% Levante +285 0.93 2.18
Atl. Madrid to win: 45.1% Atl. Madrid +122 1.25
Odds to Draw: 28.9% Draw +247 —
5/18 Betis Real Madrid Real Madrid to win: 72.2% Real Madrid -260 2.54 3.31
Betis to win: 9.6% Betis +942 0.77
Odds to Draw: 18.2% Draw +450 —
5/18 Ath Bilbao Sevilla Sevilla to win: 58.6% Sevilla -142 1.79 2.68
Ath Bilbao to win: 16.7% Ath Bilbao +499 0.88
Odds to Draw: 24.7% Draw +305 —
5/18 Valencia Valladolid Valladolid to win: 12.5% Valladolid +700 0.74 2.63
Valencia to win: 66.1% Valencia -195 1.89
Odds to Draw: 21.4% Draw +368 —

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Spain La Liga Season Prediction – Wins, Losses, Points

Below is our La Liga table projections that will be updated often as the season progresses. This projects out how each La Liga team will do in regards to the final season table. It provides probabilities for wins, losses, ties, points, and more.

Last simulation was done on 4/8/2019.

Actual Projected
Team Wins Losses Draws Points Wins Losses Draws Points
Barcelona
22
2
7
73
22.1
2.8
7.2
73.3
Real Madrid
19
9
3
60
20.4
7.6
3.9
65.2
Atl. Madrid
18
5
8
62
18.1
4.3
9.6
64
Sevilla
14
10
7
49
13.3
10.1
8.6
48.4
Getafe
13
7
11
50
12.1
9.2
10.7
47
Alaves
12
10
9
45
12.2
11
8.8
45.4
Valencia
10
5
16
46
9.5
5.9
16.6
45
Betis
12
12
7
43
12.3
12.1
7.6
44.5
Real Sociedad
10
11
10
40
11.5
10.8
9.6
44.2
Ath Bilbao
10
8
13
43
9.6
8.7
13.7
42.6
Espanyol
10
13
8
38
10.4
13.6
8
39.3
Levante
8
14
9
33
10.2
14.1
7.6
38.3
Eibar
9
10
12
39
8.7
11.6
11.7
37.7
Leganes
10
11
10
40
8.8
12.4
10.8
37.3
Girona
8
13
10
34
8.2
11.8
12
36.6
Celta Vigo
8
15
8
32
8.5
14.9
8.6
34.1
Villarreal
6
13
12
30
6.8
12.5
12.7
33
Valladolid
7
15
9
30
7.6
14.6
9.8
32.6
Rayo Vallecano
7
18
6
27
7.7
17.9
6.4
29.4
Huesca
5
17
9
24
5.7
17.6
8.7
25.8

La Liga Season Prediction – Probability to win Title, Relegation

The top four in the La liga table at the end of the 2018-2019 season will be awarded seeds into the Group Stage of the 2019-2020 Champions League. Similiarly, the fifth and sixth placed teams will earn a berth to the Group Stage of Europa League for the following season.

Probability to Win/Advance/Be Demoted
Team League Champs Lg Europa Lg Relegation
Barcelona
97.3%
100%
0%
0%
Real Madrid
1.5%
100%
0%
0%
Atl. Madrid
1.2%
100%
0%
0%
Sevilla
0%
44.8%
31.7%
0%
Getafe
0%
22.6%
43.9%
0%
Alaves
0%
8.8%
30.2%
0%
Valencia
0%
9.6%
31.6%
0%
Betis
0%
6.1%
20.5%
0%
Real Sociedad
0%
5.7%
23.6%
0%
Ath Bilbao
0%
2.1%
12.2%
0.1%
Espanyol
0%
0.2%
3.4%
1.4%
Levante
0%
0%
0.9%
3.1%
Eibar
0%
0.1%
0.7%
2.9%
Leganes
0%
0%
0.9%
4.4%
Girona
0%
0%
0.4%
9.2%
Celta Vigo
0%
0%
0%
22.3%
Villarreal
0%
0%
0%
32.5%
Valladolid
0%
0%
0%
44.5%
Rayo Vallecano
0%
0%
0%
83.2%
Huesca
0%
0%
0%
96.4%