Spain La Liga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Barcelona
Atletico Madrid
31.0%
40.6%
28.4%
+223
+127
+201
+130
3
0
-1.19703-1.14948-1.17092
Betis
Rayo Vallecano
37.8%
34.0%
28.2%
+212
+160
+210
+159
0
2
-0.98182-0.98755-1.07784
Almeria
Las Palmas
24.7%
48.8%
26.5%
+370
-129
+375
-125
1
0
-1.57330-1.58036-1.40023
Valencia
Villarreal
25.8%
49.2%
25.1%
+244
+124
+235
+121
0
1
-0.83556-0.83711-0.70978
Celta Vigo
Sevilla
21.8%
53.0%
25.2%
+310
-102
+318
-110
2
1
-1.43729-1.47408-1.52289
Alaves
Athletic Club
10.6%
70.3%
19.1%
+590
-164
+570
-175
0
2
-0.50296-0.49635-0.35193
Girona
Getafe
27.0%
44.2%
28.8%
+114
+276
+115
+265
0
1
-1.34320-1.32742-0.81647
Real Madrid
Osasuna
69.8%
11.6%
18.6%
-198
+635
-190
+560
4
2
-0.42653-0.45136-0.35926
Granada
Mallorca
30.2%
41.4%
28.4%
+422
-116
+420
-120
0
1
-0.64331-0.63752-0.88213
Cadiz
Real Sociedad
9.6%
72.6%
17.8%
+900
-224
+850
-230
0
2
-0.39273-0.40330-0.32067
Sevilla
Almeria
40.4%
31.2%
28.3%
+120
+252
+125
+245
2
2
-1.26227-1.25180-1.26171
Villarreal
Betis
24.9%
50.6%
24.5%
+256
+116
+260
+113
3
2
-1.28377-1.30567-1.38934
Celta Vigo
Real Madrid
5.3%
83.1%
11.6%
+875
-299
+850
-307
0
4
-0.30695-0.32251-0.18535
Athletic Club
Las Palmas
50.1%
23.1%
26.9%
-115
+400
+100
+370
2
0
-0.63830-0.69409-0.69209
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
27.3%
44.6%
28.1%
+315
+114
+315
+118
0
1
-0.79118-0.80133-0.80674
Osasuna
Girona
24.5%
49.2%
26.4%
+550
-187
+500
-185
0
2
-0.45092-0.46944-0.71017
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 03/11/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Real Madrid (21-1-6, 69 pts)27.42.68.090.197.2%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Girona (19-4-5, 62 pts)22.37.87.874.80.2%88.0%12.0%0.0%
3Barcelona (18-3-7, 61 pts)23.65.09.480.22.5%99.4%0.6%0.0%
4Atletico Madrid (17-7-4, 55 pts)22.19.46.572.90.1%79.6%20.4%0.0%
5Athletic Club (15-5-8, 53 pts)19.37.910.968.60.0%33.0%66.5%0.0%
6Real Sociedad (11-7-10, 43 pts)14.810.412.857.20.0%0.0%43.7%0.0%
7Betis (10-6-12, 42 pts)13.89.414.856.30.0%0.0%31.1%0.0%
8Valencia (11-9-7, 40 pts)15.112.710.255.60.0%0.0%22.7%0.0%
9Las Palmas (10-11-7, 37 pts)13.015.19.948.80.0%0.0%1.0%0.0%
10Osasuna (10-12-6, 36 pts)13.116.18.848.00.0%0.0%0.9%0.0%
11Villarreal (9-11-8, 35 pts)12.514.810.748.20.0%0.0%0.6%0.0%
12Getafe (8-9-11, 35 pts)11.313.013.747.70.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%
13Alaves (8-12-8, 32 pts)10.716.610.742.80.0%0.0%0.2%0.8%
14Sevilla (6-12-10, 28 pts)9.815.412.842.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.7%
15Mallorca (5-11-12, 27 pts)7.915.514.738.30.0%0.0%0.0%8.6%
16Rayo Vallecano (5-12-11, 26 pts)7.816.413.937.20.0%0.0%0.0%15.8%
17Celta Vigo (5-14-9, 24 pts)8.417.811.836.90.0%0.0%0.0%13.1%
18Cadiz (3-12-13, 22 pts)5.416.915.731.90.0%0.0%0.0%69.1%
19Granada (2-17-8, 14 pts)5.521.411.127.50.0%0.0%0.0%92.0%
20Almeria (0-18-10, 10 pts)3.022.312.721.70.0%0.0%0.0%99.9%

Predictions Methodology

Spain's La Liga is arguably the world's strongest soccer league. Twenty teams play 38 games in the league. The top four teams make Champions League. Teams that finish 5th through 7th make the Europa League. The teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to La Liga 2.