Spain La Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 15, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Cadiz
Sevilla 		12.9%
65.9%		21.2%
+288
+105
+300
+100
0.69
1.89		2.58
o2½+102
u2½-118
o2½+120
u2½-120
Volatility Bet Value Active
Granada
Rayo Vallecano 		26.9%
46.5%		26.6%
+566
-170
+555
-175
1.03
1.43		2.46
o2¼-112
u2½-130
o2½+120
u2½-135
Volatility Bet Value Active
Atletico Madrid
Getafe 		52.5%
20.6%		26.9%
-124
+415
-125
+405
1.44
0.79		2.23
o2¼-116
u2½-125
o2½+115
u2½-125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Athletic Club
Celta Vigo 		41.3%
30.3%		28.4%
+191
+157
+185
+155
1.24
1.02		2.26
o2½-102
u2½-111
o2½-105
u2½-115
Games for May 14, 2024
Games for May 16, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Villarreal
Girona		30.8%
42.1%		27.1%
+365
-149
+360
-145
1
0		-1.56633-1.55946-1.17866
Alaves
Real Madrid		4.1%
85.4%		10.5%
+1285
-439
+1250
-470
0
5		-0.22679-0.23163-0.15771
Mallorca
Osasuna		19.7%
55.2%		25.1%
+210
+177
+195
+180
1
1		-1.09503-1.12763-1.38346
Real Sociedad
Barcelona		12.7%
68.1%		19.2%
+409
-138
+405
-135
0
2		-0.57220-0.58152-0.38443
Almeria
Betis		14.2%
66.2%		19.6%
+677
-244
+700
-269
2
3		-0.37050-0.35961-0.41189
Rayo Vallecano
Valencia		18.2%
58.9%		22.9%
+272
+128
+265
+125
0
0		-1.17196-1.16488-1.47403
Celta Vigo
Atletico Madrid		9.7%
72.9%		17.3%
+741
-241
+740
-260
0
1		-0.37241-0.36586-0.31552
Getafe
Cadiz		35.3%
32.9%		31.8%
+295
+113
+278
+120
0
1		-0.78148-0.81862-1.11121
Osasuna
Athletic Club		13.2%
66.0%		20.8%
+845
-238
+830
-240
2
2		-1.55647-1.54778-1.56820
Real Madrid
Granada		72.9%
10.2%		16.9%
-173
+458
-175
+440
4
0		-0.48154-0.49722-0.31572
Sevilla
Villarreal		26.7%
47.1%		26.2%
+268
+102
+270
-103
2
3		-0.72602-0.71650-0.75201
Las Palmas
Mallorca		27.2%
44.3%		28.6%
+601
-150
+540
-145
0
1		-0.53801-0.57006-0.81482
Girona
Alaves		32.2%
38.2%		29.6%
+126
+230
+120
+235
2
2		-1.31602-1.30722-1.21672
Granada
Sevilla		18.0%
58.8%		23.2%
+419
-138
+394
-145
0
3		-0.56129-0.57086-0.53064
Almeria
Rayo Vallecano		22.9%
51.9%		25.2%
+480
-150
+460
-159
1
0		-1.78005-1.77049-1.47552
Alaves
Valencia		17.1%
60.0%		23.0%
+290
+123
+305
+118
1
0		-1.37817-1.43167-1.76855
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-0.96272 
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-0.97291 
DRatings31-1-1 (0.500)0-0.90661
0.05611
0.06630

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/13/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Real Madrid (28-1-6, 90 pts)29.91.56.696.3100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Barcelona (23-5-7, 76 pts)24.95.47.782.40.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Girona (23-6-6, 75 pts)24.07.16.978.90.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
4Atletico Madrid (22-9-4, 70 pts)23.79.64.775.70.0%99.7%0.3%0.0%
5Athletic Club (17-7-11, 62 pts)18.57.711.867.30.0%0.3%99.7%0.0%
6Betis (14-8-13, 55 pts)15.09.213.858.80.0%0.0%52.1%0.0%
7Real Sociedad (14-9-12, 54 pts)15.110.212.858.00.0%0.0%47.2%0.0%
8Villarreal (13-13-9, 48 pts)14.014.29.851.80.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Valencia (13-13-9, 48 pts)14.214.09.852.30.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%
10Getafe (10-12-13, 43 pts)10.913.313.846.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Alaves (11-15-9, 42 pts)11.816.49.845.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Sevilla (10-14-11, 41 pts)10.915.311.844.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Osasuna (11-17-7, 40 pts)11.918.37.943.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Las Palmas (10-18-7, 37 pts)11.019.27.840.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%
15Mallorca (7-14-14, 35 pts)8.015.114.939.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%
16Rayo Vallecano (7-14-14, 35 pts)7.715.614.837.80.0%0.0%0.0%1.9%
17Celta Vigo (8-17-10, 34 pts)8.918.310.837.60.0%0.0%0.0%3.4%
18Cadiz (5-16-14, 29 pts)6.017.114.932.90.0%0.0%0.0%93.7%
19Granada (4-22-9, 21 pts)5.123.19.925.10.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
20Almeria (2-22-11, 17 pts)2.823.411.820.20.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Spain's La Liga is arguably the world's strongest soccer league. Twenty teams play 38 games in the league. The top four teams make Champions League. Teams that finish 5th through 7th make the Europa League. The teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to La Liga 2.