Spain La Liga Predictions

We started predicting La Liga games in 2013 using data from previous games to come up with our estimates. These La Liga predictions don’t account for weather, injuries, red cards or any other factors that may be cause the result of the game to be swayed in one direction or another. See my disclaimer page for more information about these predictions: Predictions Disclaimer

As the La Liga season rolls on, we also project how the teams will finish at the end of the campaign. For our latest season projections, scroll to the bottom of this page.

These La Liga soccer predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. However, if you do wish to place bets, then please read the sportsbook information page at: Sportsbook Reviews and Ratings.

Week 7 Spain La Liga Predictions

Date Away Home Odds to Win ML Prediction Score Proj Total Goals
9/28 Espanyol Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano to win: 20.4% Rayo Vallecano +391 0.91 2.45
Espanyol to win: 52.8% Espanyol -112 1.54
Odds to Draw: 26.8% Draw +274 —
9/29 Valencia Real Sociedad Real Sociedad to win: 40% Real Sociedad +150 1.35 2.52
Valencia to win: 30.3% Valencia +231 1.16
Odds to Draw: 29.7% Draw +237 —
9/29 Ath Bilbao Barcelona Barcelona to win: 81.3% Barcelona -435 2.92 3.54
Ath Bilbao to win: 5.8% Ath Bilbao +1625 0.62
Odds to Draw: 12.9% Draw +676 —
9/29 Sevilla Eibar Eibar to win: 45.2% Eibar +122 1.44 2.50
Sevilla to win: 25.9% Sevilla +287 1.05
Odds to Draw: 28.9% Draw +247 —
9/29 Atl. Madrid Real Madrid Real Madrid to win: 67.1% Real Madrid -204 2.25 3.09
Atl. Madrid to win: 12% Atl. Madrid +734 0.83
Odds to Draw: 20.9% Draw +379 —
9/30 Girona Huesca Huesca to win: 44.4% Huesca +126 1.19 2.10
Girona to win: 26.6% Girona +276 0.91
Odds to Draw: 29% Draw +245 —
9/30 Valladolid Villarreal Villarreal to win: 74.2% Villarreal -288 2.02 2.64
Valladolid to win: 8.7% Valladolid +1050 0.61
Odds to Draw: 17.1% Draw +485 —
9/30 Alaves Levante Levante to win: 52.3% Levante -110 1.32 2.13
Alaves to win: 20.7% Alaves +384 0.80
Odds to Draw: 27% Draw +271 —
9/30 Leganes Betis Betis to win: 63% Betis -171 1.75 2.52
Leganes to win: 14.2% Leganes +605 0.76
Odds to Draw: 22.8% Draw +339 —
10/1 Getafe Celta Vigo Celta Vigo to win: 49.7% Celta Vigo +102 1.46 2.41
Getafe to win: 22.5% Getafe +345 0.94
Odds to Draw: 27.8% Draw +260 —

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Week 8 Spain La Liga Predictions

Date Away Home Odds to Win ML Prediction Score Proj Total Goals
10/5 Real Sociedad Ath Bilbao Ath Bilbao to win: 36.4% Ath Bilbao +175 1.20 2.36
Real Sociedad to win: 33.6% Real Sociedad +198 1.15
Odds to Draw: 30% Draw +234 —
10/6 Eibar Girona Girona to win: 46.8% Girona +114 1.33 2.27
Eibar to win: 24.7% Eibar +305 0.94
Odds to Draw: 28.5% Draw +251 —
10/6 Levante Getafe Getafe to win: 57.2% Getafe -134 1.54 2.35
Levante to win: 17.5% Levante +472 0.80
Odds to Draw: 25.3% Draw +296 —
10/6 Real Madrid Alaves Alaves to win: 10.8% Alaves +826 0.76 3.00
Real Madrid to win: 69.6% Real Madrid -229 2.23
Odds to Draw: 19.6% Draw +411 —
10/6 Rayo Vallecano Leganes Leganes to win: 62.8% Leganes -169 1.74 2.51
Rayo Vallecano to win: 14.3% Rayo Vallecano +600 0.76
Odds to Draw: 22.9% Draw +337 —
10/7 Huesca Valladolid Valladolid to win: 32.8% Valladolid +205 0.97 2.01
Huesca to win: 37.3% Huesca +169 1.04
Odds to Draw: 29.9% Draw +235 —
10/7 Betis Atl. Madrid Atl. Madrid to win: 70.6% Atl. Madrid -241 1.93 2.59
Betis to win: 10.3% Betis +871 0.66
Odds to Draw: 19.1% Draw +424 —
10/7 Villarreal Espanyol Espanyol to win: 52.9% Espanyol -113 1.46 2.33
Villarreal to win: 20.3% Villarreal +393 0.86
Odds to Draw: 26.8% Draw +274 —
10/7 Celta Vigo Sevilla Sevilla to win: 45.2% Sevilla +122 1.53 2.65
Celta Vigo to win: 25.9% Celta Vigo +287 1.11
Odds to Draw: 28.9% Draw +247 —
10/7 Barcelona Valencia Valencia to win: 27.3% Valencia +267 1.25 2.90
Barcelona to win: 43.5% Barcelona +130 1.64
Odds to Draw: 29.2% Draw +243 —

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Spain La Liga Season Prediction – Wins, Losses, Points

Below is our La Liga table projections that will be updated often as the season progresses. This projects out how each La Liga team will do in regards to the final season table. It provides probabilities for wins, losses, ties, points, and more.

Last simulation was done on 9/18/2018.

Actual Projected
Team Wins Losses Draws Points Wins Losses Draws Points
Barcelona
4
0
0
12
28.4
4.3
5.4
90.5
Real Madrid
3
0
1
10
26.9
4.7
6.4
87.1
Atl. Madrid
1
1
2
5
19.6
8.4
10
68.9
Valencia
0
1
3
3
15.7
11.5
10.9
57.9
Celta Vigo
2
1
1
7
15.5
13.5
9
55.4
Sevilla
1
2
1
4
15
13.9
9.1
54
Real Sociedad
1
2
1
4
14.6
14.3
9.1
52.9
Villarreal
1
2
1
4
14.4
14
9.6
52.7
Getafe
2
1
1
7
14
13.9
10.1
52.1
Ath Bilbao
1
0
2
5
13.7
13.5
10.8
51.8
Espanyol
2
1
1
7
13.7
14.8
9.5
50.5
Betis
1
1
2
5
13
14.8
10.2
49.1
Alaves
2
1
1
7
12.8
14.9
10.3
48.6
Girona
2
1
1
7
12.4
15.9
9.6
46.9
Eibar
1
2
1
4
11.8
16.8
9.4
44.8
Levante
1
2
1
4
11.6
16.9
9.5
44.4
Leganes
0
3
1
1
9.6
18.6
9.8
38.6
Rayo Vallecano
1
2
0
3
8.9
21
8.2
34.8
Huesca
1
2
1
4
8.2
20.6
9.2
33.8
Valladolid
0
2
2
2
7.4
20.6
10.1
32.2

La Liga Season Prediction – Probability to win Title, Relegation

The top four in the La liga table at the end of the 2018-2019 season will be awarded seeds into the Group Stage of the 2019-2020 Champions League. Similiarly, the fifth and sixth placed teams will earn a berth to the Group Stage of Europa League for the following season.

Probability to Win/Advance/Be Demoted
Team League Champs Lg Europa Lg Relegation
Barcelona
63.5%
100%
0%
0%
Real Madrid
35.7%
99.8%
0.2%
0%
Atl. Madrid
0.7%
79.1%
12.9%
0%
Valencia
0%
26.1%
25.9%
0.8%
Celta Vigo
0.1%
17.6%
21.5%
1.2%
Sevilla
0%
15.1%
20.1%
2.5%
Real Sociedad
0%
12.6%
16.8%
2.4%
Villarreal
0%
10.8%
18.8%
3.4%
Getafe
0%
9.4%
17.2%
2.7%
Ath Bilbao
0%
10.6%
15.2%
3.5%
Espanyol
0%
5.7%
14.9%
3.1%
Betis
0%
3%
11%
5.1%
Alaves
0%
3.7%
9.2%
5.4%
Girona
0%
3.3%
6.3%
9.2%
Eibar
0%
1.6%
4.2%
12.2%
Levante
0%
1.5%
4.3%
12.6%
Leganes
0%
0%
0.8%
36.5%
Rayo Vallecano
0%
0.1%
0.2%
61.6%
Huesca
0%
0%
0.3%
65.3%
Valladolid
0%
0%
0.2%
72.5%