Spain La Liga Predictions


We started predicting La Liga games in 2013 using data from previous games to come up with our estimates. These La Liga predictions don’t account for weather, injuries, red cards or any other factors that may be cause the result of the game to be swayed in one direction or another. See my disclaimer page for more information about these predictions: Predictions Disclaimer

As the La Liga season rolls on, we also project how the teams will finish at the end of the campaign. For our latest season projections, scroll to the bottom of this page.

These La Liga soccer predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. However, if you do wish to place bets, then please read the sportsbook information page at: Sportsbook Reviews and Ratings.

Week 1 Spain La Liga Predictions

Date Away Home Odds to Win ML Prediction Score Proj Total Goals
8/17 Valladolid Girona Girona to win: 63.6% Girona -175 1.74 2.49
Valladolid to win: 13.8% Valladolid +625 0.75
Odds to Draw: 22.6% Draw +343
8/17 Levante Betis Betis to win: 54.7% Betis -121 1.63 2.53
Levante to win: 19.1% Levante +424 0.90
Odds to Draw: 26.2% Draw +282
8/18 Espanyol Celta Vigo Celta Vigo to win: 53.8% Celta Vigo -117 1.67 2.61
Espanyol to win: 19.7% Espanyol +408 0.94
Odds to Draw: 26.5% Draw +278
8/18 Real Sociedad Villarreal Villarreal to win: 43.8% Villarreal +129 1.35 2.39
Real Sociedad to win: 27% Real Sociedad +271 1.03
Odds to Draw: 29.2% Draw +243
8/18 Alaves Barcelona Barcelona to win: 77.4% Barcelona -343 2.45 3.09
Alaves to win: 7.3% Alaves +1270 0.63
Odds to Draw: 15.3% Draw +554
8/19 Huesca Eibar Eibar to win: 56.6% Eibar -131 1.57 2.40
Huesca to win: 17.9% Huesca +459 0.83
Odds to Draw: 25.5% Draw +293
8/19 Sevilla Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano to win: 26.2% Rayo Vallecano +282 1.07 2.52
Sevilla to win: 44.9% Sevilla +123 1.45
Odds to Draw: 28.9% Draw +247
8/19 Getafe Real Madrid Real Madrid to win: 78.4% Real Madrid -363 2.72 3.38
Getafe to win: 6.9% Getafe +1350 0.66
Odds to Draw: 14.7% Draw +581
8/20 Atl. Madrid Valencia Valencia to win: 37.4% Valencia +168 1.11 2.14
Atl. Madrid to win: 32.7% Atl. Madrid +206 1.03
Odds to Draw: 29.9% Draw +235
8/20 Leganes Ath Bilbao Ath Bilbao to win: 57.6% Ath Bilbao -136 1.59 2.41
Leganes to win: 17.3% Leganes +479 0.82
Odds to Draw: 25.1% Draw +299

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Week 2 Spain La Liga Predictions

Date Away Home Odds to Win ML Prediction Score Proj Total Goals
8/24 Eibar Getafe Getafe to win: 58.4% Getafe -141 1.61 2.42
Eibar to win: 16.8% Eibar +496 0.81
Odds to Draw: 24.8% Draw +304
8/24 Real Sociedad Leganes Leganes to win: 27.2% Leganes +268 1.00 2.31
Real Sociedad to win: 43.6% Real Sociedad +130 1.30
Odds to Draw: 29.2% Draw +243
8/25 Betis Alaves Alaves to win: 48% Alaves +109 1.27 2.14
Betis to win: 23.8% Betis +321 0.87
Odds to Draw: 28.2% Draw +255
8/25 Rayo Vallecano Atl. Madrid Atl. Madrid to win: 83.2% Atl. Madrid -496 2.43 2.95
Rayo Vallecano to win: 5.1% Rayo Vallecano +1861 0.51
Odds to Draw: 11.7% Draw +755
8/25 Barcelona Valladolid Valladolid to win: 6.7% Valladolid +1393 0.64 3.41
Barcelona to win: 79.4% Barcelona -386 2.77
Odds to Draw: 13.9% Draw +620
8/26 Valencia Espanyol Espanyol to win: 33.6% Espanyol +198 1.10 2.27
Valencia to win: 36.4% Valencia +175 1.16
Odds to Draw: 30% Draw +234
8/26 Villarreal Sevilla Sevilla to win: 50.3% Sevilla -102 1.54 2.51
Villarreal to win: 22.1% Villarreal +353 0.97
Odds to Draw: 27.6% Draw +263
8/26 Real Madrid Girona Girona to win: 9% Girona +1012 0.74 3.25
Real Madrid to win: 73.5% Real Madrid -278 2.51
Odds to Draw: 17.5% Draw +472
8/27 Celta Vigo Levante Levante to win: 42.8% Levante +134 1.35 2.42
Celta Vigo to win: 27.9% Celta Vigo +259 1.07
Odds to Draw: 29.3% Draw +242
8/27 Huesca Ath Bilbao Ath Bilbao to win: 55.5% Ath Bilbao -125 1.54 2.39
Huesca to win: 18.6% Huesca +438 0.84
Odds to Draw: 25.9% Draw +287

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Spain La Liga Season Prediction – Wins, Losses, Points

Below is our La Liga table projections that will be updated often as the season progresses. This projects out how each La Liga team will do in regards to the final season table. It provides probabilities for wins, losses, ties, points, and more.

Last simulation was done on 8/14/2018.

Actual Projected
Team Wins Losses Draws Points Wins Losses Draws Points
Barcelona
0
0
0
0
27.6
4.4
6
88.8
Real Madrid
0
0
0
0
25.8
6
6.2
83.6
Atl. Madrid
0
0
0
0
21.1
8
8.9
72.1
Valencia
0
0
0
0
17.4
11.6
8.9
61.2
Sevilla
0
0
0
0
15.9
13.1
9
56.7
Villarreal
0
0
0
0
14.8
13.4
9.8
54.2
Celta Vigo
0
0
0
0
14.6
14
9.3
53.2
Ath Bilbao
0
0
0
0
14.4
14.2
9.4
52.7
Real Sociedad
0
0
0
0
14.5
14.5
8.9
52.6
Betis
0
0
0
0
13.5
15.1
9.4
49.8
Getafe
0
0
0
0
13.2
15
9.8
49.4
Espanyol
0
0
0
0
12.8
15.5
9.7
48.2
Eibar
0
0
0
0
12.3
16.4
9.4
46.2
Alaves
0
0
0
0
11.9
15.8
10.3
46.1
Girona
0
0
0
0
11.6
16.5
9.9
44.7
Levante
0
0
0
0
11.6
17.1
9.3
44.1
Leganes
0
0
0
0
10.5
17.8
9.7
41.2
Rayo Vallecano
0
0
0
0
9.3
19.7
9
36.8
Valladolid
0
0
0
0
8.8
20.1
9.1
35.4
Huesca
0
0
0
0
7.7
21
9.3
32.3

La Liga Season Prediction – Probability to win Title, Relegation

The top four in the La liga table at the end of the 2018-2019 season will be awarded seeds into the Group Stage of the 2019-2020 Champions League. Similiarly, the fifth and sixth placed teams will earn a berth to the Group Stage of Europa League for the following season.

Probability to Win/Advance/Be Demoted
Team Premiership Champs Lg Europa Lg Relegation
Barcelona
66.9%
99.8%
0.2%
0%
Real Madrid
29.1%
98.4%
1.4%
0%
Atl. Madrid
3.3%
82.4%
12.8%
0%
Valencia
0.4%
37.9%
26.2%
0.8%
Sevilla
0.2%
19.2%
24.7%
1.5%
Villarreal
0%
11.1%
22.4%
2.2%
Celta Vigo
0%
10.8%
18.5%
2.9%
Ath Bilbao
0.1%
9.4%
18.5%
3.6%
Real Sociedad
0%
8.9%
16.9%
2.7%
Betis
0%
5.5%
10.9%
5.6%
Getafe
0%
4.7%
11.8%
7%
Espanyol
0%
3.7%
9.7%
8.6%
Eibar
0%
2.4%
5.9%
12.5%
Alaves
0%
2.2%
7.4%
11.3%
Girona
0%
1.1%
4.4%
15.1%
Levante
0%
1.7%
5.8%
18.4%
Leganes
0%
0.5%
1.7%
25.1%
Rayo Vallecano
0%
0.2%
0.5%
49.8%
Valladolid
0%
0.1%
0.3%
58.2%
Huesca
0%
0%
0%
74.7%