Spain La Liga Predictions


We started predicting La Liga games in 2013 using data from previous games to come up with our estimates. These La Liga predictions don’t account for weather, injuries, red cards or any other factors that may be cause the result of the game to be swayed in one direction or another. See my disclaimer page for more information about these predictions: Predictions Disclaimer

As the La Liga season rolls on, we also project how the teams will finish at the end of the campaign. For our latest season projections, scroll to the bottom of this page.

These La Liga soccer predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. However, if you do wish to place bets, then please read the sportsbook information page at: Sportsbook Reviews and Ratings.

Week 15 Spain La Liga Predictions

Date Away Home Odds to Win ML Prediction Score Proj Total Goals
12/7 Getafe Leganes Leganes to win: 27.8% Leganes +260 0.87 1.96
Getafe to win: 42.9% Getafe +134 1.09
Odds to Draw: 29.3% Draw +242
12/8 Alaves Atl. Madrid Atl. Madrid to win: 71.5% Atl. Madrid -251 1.69 2.28
Alaves to win: 9.9% Alaves +911 0.59
Odds to Draw: 18.6% Draw +438
12/8 Sevilla Valencia Valencia to win: 63.5% Valencia -174 2.02 2.86
Sevilla to win: 13.9% Sevilla +620 0.84
Odds to Draw: 22.6% Draw +343
12/8 Celta Vigo Villarreal Villarreal to win: 45.4% Villarreal +121 1.41 2.44
Celta Vigo to win: 25.8% Celta Vigo +288 1.03
Odds to Draw: 28.8% Draw +248
12/8 Barcelona Espanyol Espanyol to win: 16.5% Espanyol +507 0.97 3.02
Barcelona to win: 58.9% Barcelona -144 2.05
Odds to Draw: 24.6% Draw +307
12/9 Levante Eibar Eibar to win: 45.3% Eibar +121 1.34 2.33
Levante to win: 25.8% Levante +288 0.98
Odds to Draw: 28.9% Draw +247
12/9 Real Madrid Huesca Huesca to win: 6.6% Huesca +1416 0.64 3.46
Real Madrid to win: 79.6% Real Madrid -391 2.82
Odds to Draw: 13.8% Draw +625
12/9 Valladolid Real Sociedad Real Sociedad to win: 77.8% Real Sociedad -351 2.37 2.99
Valladolid to win: 7.2% Valladolid +1289 0.61
Odds to Draw: 15% Draw +567
12/9 Rayo Vallecano Betis Betis to win: 73.1% Betis -272 2.20 2.88
Rayo Vallecano to win: 9.2% Rayo Vallecano +987 0.68
Odds to Draw: 17.7% Draw +465
12/10 Girona Ath Bilbao Ath Bilbao to win: 54.1% Ath Bilbao -118 1.52 2.39
Girona to win: 19.5% Girona +413 0.86
Odds to Draw: 26.4% Draw +279

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Week 16 Spain La Liga Predictions

Date Away Home Odds to Win ML Prediction Score Proj Total Goals
12/14 Leganes Celta Vigo Celta Vigo to win: 65.9% Celta Vigo -194 1.94 2.70
Leganes to win: 12.6% Leganes +694 0.76
Odds to Draw: 21.5% Draw +366
12/15 Real Sociedad Getafe Getafe to win: 52.1% Getafe -109 1.52 2.43
Real Sociedad to win: 20.8% Real Sociedad +381 0.91
Odds to Draw: 27.1% Draw +270
12/15 Atl. Madrid Valladolid Valladolid to win: 7.7% Valladolid +1199 0.56 2.57
Atl. Madrid to win: 76.7% Atl. Madrid -330 2.00
Odds to Draw: 15.6% Draw +542
12/15 Rayo Vallecano Real Madrid Real Madrid to win: 93% Real Madrid -1329 3.61 4.01
Rayo Vallecano to win: 1.9% Rayo Vallecano +5164 0.40
Odds to Draw: 5.1% Draw +1861
12/15 Valencia Eibar Eibar to win: 27.6% Eibar +263 1.05 2.39
Valencia to win: 43.1% Valencia +133 1.34
Odds to Draw: 29.3% Draw +242
12/16 Girona Sevilla Sevilla to win: 58.6% Sevilla -142 1.73 2.58
Girona to win: 16.7% Girona +499 0.85
Odds to Draw: 24.7% Draw +305
12/16 Betis Espanyol Espanyol to win: 52.2% Espanyol -110 1.55 2.47
Betis to win: 20.8% Betis +381 0.92
Odds to Draw: 27% Draw +271
12/16 Villarreal Huesca Huesca to win: 33.3% Huesca +201 0.97 1.99
Villarreal to win: 36.7% Villarreal +173 1.02
Odds to Draw: 30% Draw +234
12/16 Barcelona Levante Levante to win: 15.5% Levante +546 0.95 3.08
Barcelona to win: 60.6% Barcelona -154 2.12
Odds to Draw: 23.9% Draw +319
12/17 Ath Bilbao Alaves Alaves to win: 55.8% Alaves -127 1.44 2.23
Ath Bilbao to win: 18.4% Ath Bilbao +444 0.79
Odds to Draw: 25.8% Draw +288

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Spain La Liga Season Prediction – Wins, Losses, Points

Below is our La Liga table projections that will be updated often as the season progresses. This projects out how each La Liga team will do in regards to the final season table. It provides probabilities for wins, losses, ties, points, and more.

Last simulation was done on 11/29/2018.

Actual Projected
Team Wins Losses Draws Points Wins Losses Draws Points
Barcelona
7
2
4
25
24.3
5.5
8.1
81.1
Real Madrid
6
5
2
20
24.9
7.6
5.5
80.3
Atl. Madrid
6
1
6
24
19.9
6.1
12
71.8
Sevilla
8
3
2
26
18.3
11.8
7.9
62.8
Valencia
3
2
8
17
14.6
9.7
13.7
57.5
Real Sociedad
5
4
4
19
15.3
12.8
9.8
55.8
Espanyol
6
4
3
21
14.7
14.2
9.1
53.1
Alaves
7
4
2
23
14.6
14.7
8.7
52.6
Celta Vigo
3
5
5
14
13
14.1
10.9
49.9
Getafe
4
4
5
17
12.7
13.9
11.4
49.4
Levante
5
5
3
18
13.1
15.7
9.1
48.5
Girona
5
3
5
20
12.3
14.2
11.6
48.4
Villarreal
3
5
5
14
12.2
14.6
11.2
47.8
Betis
4
5
4
16
12.6
15.4
10.1
47.8
Eibar
5
5
3
18
12.7
16.2
9.1
47.3
Ath Bilbao
1
4
8
11
10.1
13.8
14.1
44.4
Leganes
3
6
4
13
10.3
17.4
10.4
41.2
Valladolid
4
4
5
17
9.2
18
10.8
38.5
Huesca
1
8
4
7
6.9
21.1
10
30.7
Rayo Vallecano
1
8
4
7
6.6
21.7
9.6
29.5

La Liga Season Prediction – Probability to win Title, Relegation

The top four in the La liga table at the end of the 2018-2019 season will be awarded seeds into the Group Stage of the 2019-2020 Champions League. Similiarly, the fifth and sixth placed teams will earn a berth to the Group Stage of Europa League for the following season.

Probability to Win/Advance/Be Demoted
Team League Champs Lg Europa Lg Relegation
Barcelona
51.5%
99.9%
0.1%
0%
Real Madrid
42.4%
99.9%
0.1%
0%
Atl. Madrid
5.7%
90.3%
7.9%
0%
Sevilla
0.3%
49.2%
29.3%
0%
Valencia
0.1%
21.3%
32.1%
0.2%
Real Sociedad
0%
12%
29.6%
0.4%
Espanyol
0%
6.4%
21.2%
0.5%
Alaves
0%
6%
17.9%
1.1%
Celta Vigo
0%
3.9%
13.5%
3.9%
Getafe
0%
2.6%
11.5%
3.1%
Levante
0%
1.9%
8.5%
4.3%
Girona
0%
2.3%
7%
4%
Villarreal
0%
1.5%
6.2%
5.8%
Betis
0%
1.5%
6.5%
6.5%
Eibar
0%
0.7%
4.3%
5.9%
Ath Bilbao
0%
0.5%
3%
14.7%
Leganes
0%
0.1%
0.9%
26.8%
Valladolid
0%
0%
0.4%
43.9%
Huesca
0%
0%
0%
86.9%
Rayo Vallecano
0%
0%
0%
92%