France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 10, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Reims
Brest 		23.9%
50.3%		25.8%
+395
-138

0.96
1.53		2.49
o2½-134
u2¾-112

Le Havre
Nice 		14.1%
64.1%		21.8%
+533
-175

0.73
1.85		2.58
o2½-106
u2½-108

Games for May 9, 2024
Games for May 12, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lorient
Montpellier		19.0%
59.1%		21.9%
+325
-119
+315
-125
0
2		-0.63820-0.63936-0.52643
Clermont Foot
Paris Saint-Germain		3.5%
87.3%		9.1%
+865
-290
+900
-370
1
1		-1.74818-1.85125-2.39679
Le Havre
Lens		10.6%
71.1%		18.3%
+645
-199
+600
-205
1
1		-1.50828-1.49598-1.69707
Marseille
Lille		27.9%
45.3%		26.8%
+335
-108
+310
-105
1
3		-0.67824-0.70613-0.79279
Paris Saint-Germain
Marseille		49.3%
25.3%		25.4%
+107
+280
+100
+265
2
0		-0.73691-0.73643-0.70757
Rennes
Strasbourg		35.8%
36.1%		28.1%
+134
+223
+130
+215
0
2		-1.20141-1.19690-1.01771
Montpellier
Le Havre		44.6%
28.1%		27.4%
+170
+185
+175
+175
2
0		-1.01724-1.05535-0.80831
Toulouse
Clermont Foot		33.4%
38.5%		28.1%
+105
+290
+105
+275
3
0		-0.74343-0.76529-1.09628
Reims
Lyon		18.7%
58.4%		22.9%
+267
+108
+250
+105
1
1		-1.33750-1.33094-1.47517
Monaco
Metz		55.7%
21.0%		23.3%
-154
+450
-160
+415
5
2		-0.51565-0.53479-0.58557
Lens
Lille		20.1%
56.4%		23.5%
+267
+118
+265
+105
1
2		-0.80860-0.76819-0.57252
Paris Saint-Germain
Montpellier		66.1%
14.6%		19.2%
-222
+590
-220
+550
6
2		-0.39821-0.42528-0.41346
Marseille
Rennes		33.4%
38.7%		27.8%
+168
+171
+160
+170
0
2		-1.01666-1.04120-0.94835
Metz
Reims		16.5%
60.5%		23.0%
+400
-127
+380
-130
1
2		-0.60314-0.60996-0.50274
Lorient
Monaco		12.1%
70.6%		17.4%
+689
-259
+650
-275
2
2		-1.75655-1.73693-1.75117
Le Havre
Clermont Foot		22.6%
50.1%		27.3%
+175
+185
+170
+180
1
2		-1.06927-1.07852-0.69099
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.27222 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.27465 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.57697
-0.30475
-0.30232

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/29/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (20-1-10, 70 pts)22.21.410.477.1100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Monaco (17-7-7, 58 pts)18.37.87.962.80.0%91.5%8.5%0.0%
3Brest (16-7-8, 56 pts)17.18.18.860.10.0%57.2%42.8%0.0%
4Lille (15-6-10, 55 pts)16.26.910.959.50.0%49.9%50.1%0.0%
5Nice (14-8-9, 51 pts)14.89.49.754.20.0%1.4%80.0%0.0%
6Lens (13-11-7, 46 pts)14.112.07.950.10.0%0.0%9.2%0.0%
7Marseille (11-9-11, 44 pts)12.79.611.749.70.0%0.0%8.0%0.0%
8Lyon (13-13-5, 44 pts)14.313.95.848.70.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
9Rennes (11-11-9, 42 pts)12.411.89.846.90.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%
10Toulouse (10-11-10, 40 pts)10.612.610.842.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (11-13-7, 40 pts)11.814.37.843.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Montpellier (9-11-11, 38 pts)10.112.011.942.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Strasbourg (9-13-9, 36 pts)10.213.99.940.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Nantes (9-17-5, 32 pts)10.018.25.935.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
15Le Havre (6-14-11, 29 pts)6.615.611.831.70.0%0.0%0.0%17.6%
16Metz (8-18-5, 29 pts)8.619.85.631.40.0%0.0%0.0%27.1%
17Lorient (6-17-8, 26 pts)6.918.28.929.70.0%0.0%0.0%70.0%
18Clermont Foot (5-16-10, 25 pts)5.817.410.828.30.0%0.0%0.0%84.9%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.