France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 19, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Montpellier
Lens 		22.2%
54.5%		23.3%
+785
-289
+700
-315
1.06
1.78		2.84
o3½+100
u3½-108
o3½-110
u3½-110
Clermont Foot
Lorient 		21.2%
54.2%		24.5%
+386
-154
+375
-160
0.93
1.65		2.58
o3¼-108
u3½-134
o3½+120
u3½-140
Marseille
Le Havre 		59.8%
16.9%		23.3%
-123
+370
-135
+340
1.74
0.80		2.54
o2¾-108
u3-134
o2½-145
u2½+125
Brest
Toulouse 		31.6%
42.0%		26.4%
+105
+261
+100
+260
1.17
1.39		2.56
o2¾-125
u3-116
o3+105
u3-125
Paris Saint-Germain
Metz 		80.0%
6.6%		13.3%
-159
+445
-170
+420
2.64
0.64		3.28
o3¼-102
u3¼-112
o3½+110
u3½-130
Rennes
Reims 		35.0%
35.7%		29.3%
+150
+181
+140
+180
1.08
1.09		2.17
o3-122
u3+112
o3-125
u3+105
Nantes
Monaco 		17.0%
61.9%		21.1%
+635
-243
+560
-250
0.93
1.99		2.92
o3½-110
u3½-102
o3½-115
u3½-105
Strasbourg
Lyon 		18.6%
59.9%		21.6%
+655
-237
+600
-250
0.99
1.96		2.95
o3¼-108
u3½-125
o3½+115
u3½-135
Volatility Bet Value Active
Nice
Lille 		15.4%
63.3%		21.4%
+585
-192
+555
-205
0.82
1.92		2.74
o2¾-111
u2¾-102
o3+115
u3-135
Games for May 18, 2024
Games for May 20, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Rennes
Strasbourg		35.8%
36.1%		28.1%
+134
+223
+130
+215
0
2		-1.20141-1.19690-1.01771
Montpellier
Le Havre		44.6%
28.1%		27.4%
+170
+185
+175
+175
2
0		-1.01724-1.05535-0.80831
Toulouse
Clermont Foot		33.4%
38.5%		28.1%
+105
+290
+105
+275
3
0		-0.74343-0.76529-1.09628
Reims
Lyon		18.7%
58.4%		22.9%
+267
+108
+250
+105
1
1		-1.33750-1.33094-1.47517
Monaco
Metz		55.7%
21.0%		23.3%
-154
+450
-160
+415
5
2		-0.51565-0.53479-0.58557
Lens
Lille		20.1%
56.4%		23.5%
+267
+118
+265
+105
1
2		-0.80860-0.76819-0.57252
Paris Saint-Germain
Montpellier		66.1%
14.6%		19.2%
-222
+590
-220
+550
6
2		-0.39821-0.42528-0.41346
Marseille
Rennes		33.4%
38.7%		27.8%
+168
+171
+160
+170
0
2		-1.01666-1.04120-0.94835
Metz
Reims		16.5%
60.5%		23.0%
+400
-127
+380
-130
1
2		-0.60314-0.60996-0.50274
Lorient
Monaco		12.1%
70.6%		17.4%
+689
-259
+650
-275
2
2		-1.75655-1.73693-1.75117
Le Havre
Clermont Foot		22.6%
50.1%		27.3%
+175
+185
+170
+180
1
2		-1.06927-1.07852-0.69099
Nice
Lens		20.5%
55.9%		23.5%
+336
+100
+280
+105
3
1		-1.48347-1.38326-1.58246
Strasbourg
Nantes		23.5%
51.6%		25.0%
+305
+111
+275
+110
3
1		-1.41358-1.37105-1.44932
Lyon
Toulouse		38.6%
34.7%		26.8%
+170
+184
+155
+185
3
2		-1.01401-0.98556-0.95231
Nantes
Marseille		14.9%
64.3%		20.7%
+626
-197
+610
-215
0
2		-0.43844-0.43135-0.44132
Rennes
Lille		21.3%
54.5%		24.2%
+350
-104
+315
-105
2
2		-1.27239-1.25931-1.41969
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/13/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (20-2-10, 70 pts)21.62.210.374.9100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Monaco (19-7-7, 64 pts)19.47.37.365.40.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Lille (16-7-10, 58 pts)16.47.310.359.50.0%63.8%36.2%0.0%
4Brest (16-7-10, 58 pts)16.57.310.359.60.0%34.8%65.2%0.0%
5Nice (15-8-9, 54 pts)15.49.19.555.70.0%1.4%98.6%0.0%
6Lens (14-11-8, 50 pts)14.311.48.351.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Lyon (15-13-5, 50 pts)15.413.45.351.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Marseille (12-9-11, 47 pts)13.29.311.551.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Rennes (12-11-10, 46 pts)12.511.210.347.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Toulouse (11-12-10, 43 pts)11.312.510.344.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Montpellier (10-12-11, 41 pts)10.412.311.342.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Reims (11-13-8, 41 pts)11.414.18.542.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Strasbourg (10-14-9, 39 pts)10.414.49.340.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Nantes (9-18-6, 33 pts)9.318.46.334.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Le Havre (7-15-11, 32 pts)7.115.711.232.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Metz (8-20-5, 29 pts)8.120.85.129.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17Lorient (6-19-8, 26 pts)6.319.48.327.30.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
18Clermont Foot (5-18-10, 25 pts)5.418.310.326.40.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.