Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 3, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Bologna
Torino 		24.2%
51.2%		24.6%
+190
+188

1.05
1.64		2.69
o2+100
u2-113

Games for May 2, 2024
Games for May 4, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Roma
Fiorentina		31.7%
41.6%		26.7%
+193
+161
+195
+155
2
2		-1.22953-1.22751-1.32006
Atalanta
Juventus		28.9%
45.4%		25.7%
+250
+128
+240
+127
2
2		-1.21449-1.20922-1.36016
Empoli
Milan		6.5%
80.7%		12.8%
+730
-225
+730
-250
0
1		-0.38820-0.37662-0.21498
Hellas Verona
Lecce		31.8%
41.5%		26.7%
+295
+123
+257
+125
1
0		-1.39259-1.31371-1.14693
Monza
Genoa		23.9%
50.7%		25.5%
+299
+113
+286
+120
3
2		-1.41120-1.38127-1.43318
Inter
Bologna		64.0%
15.7%		20.2%
+119
+310
+110
+289
1
0		-0.78117-0.77759-0.44554
Frosinone
Sassuolo		21.6%
55.5%		23.0%
+205
+140
+205
+137
0
1		-0.89754-0.89011-0.58956
Salernitana
Cagliari		28.3%
44.7%		27.0%
+375
-117
+365
-120
2
4		-0.63966-0.64747-0.80544
Torino
Napoli		14.2%
66.2%		19.6%
+460
-140
+420
-130
1
1		-1.35189-1.31561-1.63092
Genoa
Inter		7.7%
77.8%		14.5%
+1225
-367
+1200
-410
1
2		-0.26592-0.25928-0.25153
Juventus
Napoli		29.6%
43.4%		27.0%
+258
+131
+240
+130
1
2		-0.85885-0.87347-0.83499
Bologna
Atalanta		9.5%
76.0%		14.5%
+295
+105
+280
+105
2
1		-1.39691-1.37500-2.35377
Lecce
Frosinone		24.8%
49.5%		25.6%
+235
+131
+223
+130
1
1		-1.24897-1.24026-1.36117
Cagliari
Empoli		24.6%
50.2%		25.2%
+241
+133
+250
+123
1
0		-1.24744-1.29375-1.40271
Sassuolo
Hellas Verona		27.8%
47.6%		24.6%
+217
+139
+209
+135
0
1		-0.89392-0.89678-0.74303
Fiorentina
Torino		32.7%
39.8%		27.5%
+214
+162
+215
+155
0
0		-1.14725-1.14069-1.29018
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.74953 
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.74447 
DRatings32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.69271
0.05682
0.05176

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.