Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 21, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
Line
GoalsTotal
Goals
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Sassuolo
Milan
23.4%
58.6%
18.0%
+485
-169
+480
-180
0.92
2.31
3.23
o3-120
u3+105
o3-125
u3+105
Benevento
Genoa
32.2%
41.2%
26.6%
+260
+125
+260
+120
1.09
1.41
2.50
o2½-101
u2½-112
o2½-105
u2½-115
Cagliari
Udinese
30.5%
43.2%
26.3%
+200
+154
+200
+145
1.03
1.46
2.49
o2½+105
u2½-125
o2½+105
u2½-125
Inter
Spezia
72.5%
15.7%
11.7%
-250
+710
-260
+700
2.82
0.61
3.43
o3-114
u3-105
o3-115
u3-105
Parma
Juventus
11.5%
79.8%
8.7%
+1085
-357
+1050
-400
0.45
3.06
3.51
o3-125
u3+105
o3-125
u3+105
Sampdoria
Crotone
47.8%
28.9%
23.3%
+100
+275
-105
+270
1.78
1.07
2.85
o3+110
u3-130
o3+105
u3-125
Torino
Bologna
33.4%
41.5%
25.0%
+185
+155
+185
+155
1.25
1.54
2.79
o2½-114
u2½+100
o2½-120
u2½+105

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
Line
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Inter
Napoli
41.4%
32.4%
26.2%
+140
+210
+140
+205
1
1
-1.03212-1.04178-1.00460
Roma
Torino
58.7%
23.7%
17.7%
+146
+190
+150
+205
1
3
-1.09796-1.13271-1.44033
Spezia
Bologna
31.0%
44.4%
24.6%
+290
-108
+260
-105
1
4
-0.69017-0.71756-0.81144
Juventus
Atalanta
39.3%
34.9%
25.8%
+220
+130
+200
+130
0
1
-0.86538-0.88150-1.05374
Benevento
Lazio
18.0%
66.9%
15.1%
+825
-290
+725
-255
3
5
-0.32640-0.37970-0.40188
Genoa
Milan
18.0%
68.4%
13.6%
+700
-230
+575
-220
1
2
-0.39255-0.42414-0.38047
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/18/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Inter (23-2-6, 75 pts)26.83.47.788.297.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Milan (20-5-6, 66 pts)23.26.87.977.61.0%87.3%12.4%0.0%
3Atalanta (19-5-7, 64 pts)22.86.58.777.11.2%85.7%13.9%0.0%
4Juventus (18-5-8, 62 pts)22.06.49.675.60.1%76.2%23.2%0.0%
5Napoli (19-9-3, 60 pts)22.410.74.972.20.0%31.8%63.0%0.0%
6Lazio (18-8-4, 58 pts)21.710.16.271.20.0%18.4%67.1%0.0%
7Roma (16-9-6, 54 pts)19.310.97.865.70.0%0.6%20.3%0.0%
8Sassuolo (12-9-10, 46 pts)14.212.011.854.30.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
9Hellas Verona (11-12-8, 41 pts)13.514.510.050.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Sampdoria (11-14-6, 39 pts)13.416.77.948.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Bologna (10-14-7, 37 pts)11.917.28.944.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Udinese (9-13-9, 36 pts)11.016.011.043.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%
13Genoa (7-13-11, 32 pts)9.116.012.940.20.0%0.0%0.0%4.4%
14Spezia (8-15-8, 32 pts)9.718.69.738.80.0%0.0%0.0%6.1%
15Torino (6-12-12, 30 pts)8.415.514.139.20.0%0.0%0.0%4.3%
16Fiorentina (7-15-9, 30 pts)9.617.610.839.60.0%0.0%0.0%3.1%
17Benevento (7-15-9, 30 pts)9.217.911.038.50.0%0.0%0.0%9.0%
18Cagliari (6-18-7, 25 pts)8.021.28.932.70.0%0.0%0.0%73.7%
19Parma (3-17-11, 20 pts)4.820.412.827.20.0%0.0%0.0%99.1%
20Crotone (4-24-3, 15 pts)5.527.84.721.20.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.