MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 30, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
New York Yankees (19-11)
Baltimore Orioles (18-10)
Nestor Cortes
Dean Kremer
47.7%
52.3%
-114
+110
-115
+108
-1½+137
+1½-152
-1½+140
+1½-155
4.63
4.87
9.50
o9+105
u9-115
o9+100
u9-115
Colorado Rockies (7-21)
Miami Marlins (6-24)
Ryan Feltner
Sixto Sánchez
44.0%
56.0%
+123
-132
+126
-132
+1½-173
-1½+157
+1½-175
-1½+160
3.98
4.61
8.59
o8-108
u8-108
o8-105
u8-105
St. Louis Cardinals (13-15)
Detroit Tigers (16-12)
Steven Matz
Matt Manning
41.8%
58.2%
+104
-111
+104
-110
+1½-185
-1½+178
+1½-200
-1½+190
4.32
5.19
9.51
o8½-118
u8½+103
o8½-115
u9-120
Kansas City Royals (17-13)
Toronto Blue Jays (15-15)
Cole Ragans
José Berríos
42.1%
57.9%
+121
-130
+121
-127
+1½-180
-1½+162
+1½-175
-1½+170
3.66
4.49
8.15
o7½-108
u7½-105
o7½-110
u7½+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
Chicago Cubs (18-11)
New York Mets (14-14)
Javier Assad
Sean Manaea
49.4%
50.6%
+115
-120
+114
-119
+1½-193
-1½+175
+1½-190
-1½+175
4.08
4.15
8.23
o7-113
u7+105
o7-115
u7+100
San Francisco Giants (14-15)
Boston Red Sox (16-13)
Logan Webb
Cooper Criswell
50.5%
49.5%
-123
+118
-124
+120
-1½+130
+1½-143
-1½+135
+1½-145
4.15
4.10
8.25
o8-110
u8-103
o8-110
u8-105
Minnesota Twins (15-13)
Chicago White Sox (6-23)
Simeon Woods Richardson
Michael Soroka
63.3%
36.7%
-166
+159
-162
+158
-1½-108
+1½-105
-1½-111
+1½-105
5.30
3.91
9.21
o8½-113
u8½+100
o8½-110
u8½-105
Volatility Bet Value Active
Tampa Bay Rays (14-16)
Milwaukee Brewers (17-11)
Tyler Alexander
Freddy Peralta
36.8%
63.2%
+160
-165
+159
-170
+1½-143
-1½+130
+1½-140
-1½+130
3.53
4.92
8.45
o7½-103
u7½-113
o7½+100
u7½-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Washington Nationals (14-14)
Texas Rangers (15-14)
MacKenzie Gore
Jon Gray
39.5%
60.5%
+136
-142
+135
-145
+1½-153
-1½+140
+1½-155
-1½+137
3.72
4.81
8.53
o8+102
u8-115
o8+100
u8-110
Cleveland Guardians (19-9)
Houston Astros (9-19)
Carlos Carrasco
Hunter Brown
48.5%
51.5%
+154
-162
+151
-163
+1½-142
-1½+127
+1½-140
-1½+125
4.83
5.00
9.83
o9-103
u9-113
o9+100
u9-110
Philadelphia Phillies (19-11)
Los Angeles Angels (11-18)
Spencer Turnbull
Tyler Anderson
53.1%
46.9%
-136
+128
-137
+132
-1½+120
+1½-133
-1½+115
+1½-133
4.26
3.93
8.19
o8½-113
u8½+100
o8½-115
u9-120
Los Angeles Dodgers (19-12)
Arizona Diamondbacks (13-17)
Landon Knack
Jordan Montgomery
52.4%
47.6%
-109
-101
-107
+100
-1½+145
+1½-157
-1½+145
+1½-160
4.58
4.33
8.91
o9½-108
u9½-105
o9½-105
u9½-105
Overall Bet Value Active
Cincinnati Reds (16-13)
San Diego Padres (14-18)
Nick Martinez
Yu Darvish
41.8%
58.2%
+156
-162
+155
-165
+1½-143
-1½+130
+1½-143
-1½+130
3.99
4.84
8.83
o7½-113
u7½+100
o7½-110
u7½-105
Atlanta Braves (19-8)
Seattle Mariners (16-13)
Reynaldo López
Luis Castillo
51.4%
48.6%
-118
+112
-118
+110
-1½+150
+1½-163
-1½+150
+1½-160
4.02
3.88
7.90
o7+105
u7-118
o7+100
u7-120
Pittsburgh Pirates (14-16)
Oakland Athletics (13-17)
Mitch Keller
Alex Wood
56.2%
43.8%
-126
+121
-129
+120
-1½+132
+1½-148
-1½+131
+1½-150
4.30
3.65
7.95
o7½+107
u7½-118
o7½+100
u7½-115
Games for Apr 29, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
St. Louis Cardinals (13-15)
Detroit Tigers (16-12)
47.7%
52.3%
+111
-119
+114
-117
+1½-188
-1½+170
+1½-189
-1½+175
8.38
o8½-115
u9-118
o9+100
u9-120
7th
BOT
0
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Cleveland Guardians
Atlanta Braves
35.7%
64.3%
+232
-245
+235
-260
+1½+115
-1½-128
+1½+110
-1½-128
2
6
-0.35357-0.34595-0.44234
Chicago Cubs
Boston Red Sox
55.5%
44.5%
-105
-102
-103
-105

+1½-220
-1½+192
7
1
-0.68605-0.69788-0.58927
St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets
42.5%
57.5%
+113
-120
+116
-122
+1½-188
-1½+172
+1½-180
-1½+165
4
2
-0.77096-0.78255-0.85461
Washington Nationals
Miami Marlins
40.6%
59.4%
+112
-120
+114
-122
+1½-188
-1½+167
+1½-180
-1½+170
3
1
-0.76841-0.77751-0.90254
Los Angeles Dodgers
Toronto Blue Jays
49.6%
50.4%
-118
+109
-117
+113
-1½+134
+1½-148
-1½+135
+1½-150
12
2
-0.63337-0.62633-0.70124
Oakland Athletics
Baltimore Orioles
26.2%
73.8%
+244
-270
+263
-280
+1½+147
-1½-135
+1½+130
-1½-140
3
2
-1.25569-1.30148-1.33869
Kansas City Royals
Detroit Tigers
47.3%
52.7%
+114
-122
+119
-124
+1½-183
-1½+170
+1½-185
-1½+170
8
0
-0.77751-0.79405-0.74940
Oakland Athletics
New York Yankees
31.0%
69.0%
+243
-264
+235
-260
+1½+120
-1½-133
+1½+125
-1½-128
3
1
-1.24921-1.22946-1.17260
Los Angeles Dodgers
Washington Nationals
62.2%
37.8%
-164
+154
-169
+156
-1½-102
+1½-108
-1½-104
+1½-110
2
1
-0.49089-0.48352-0.47480
San Diego Padres
Colorado Rockies
58.9%
41.1%
-139
+130
-137
+134
-1½+107
+1½-123
-1½+108
+1½-125
9
10
-0.84915-0.85555-0.89016
Seattle Mariners
Texas Rangers
50.4%
49.6%
-114
+107
-114
+106
-1½+137
+1½-153
-1½+135
+1½-150
4
3
-0.64546-0.64777-0.68423
Houston Astros
Chicago Cubs
49.4%
50.6%
-141
+134
-141
+133
-1½+125
+1½-138
-1½+120
+1½-135
1
3
-0.86249-0.86003-0.68169
Toronto Blue Jays
Kansas City Royals
48.3%
51.7%
-112
+105
-107
+101


1
2
-0.73382-0.71245-0.65888
Chicago White Sox
Minnesota Twins
31.0%
69.0%
+178
-188
+175
-190
+1½+122
-1½-101
+1½-110
-1½+100
3
6
-0.43892-0.44150-0.37163
Boston Red Sox
Cleveland Guardians
44.1%
55.9%
+115
-124
+117
-125
+1½-185
-1½+172
+1½-180
-1½+170
4
6
-0.60989-0.60404-0.58093
Philadelphia Phillies
Cincinnati Reds
58.6%
41.4%
-162
+156
-163
+158
-1½-103
+1½-113
-1½-103
+1½-105
5
0
-0.48965-0.48574-0.53426
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks114-7 (0.364)0-0.71236 
Sportsbooks114-7 (0.364)0-0.71434 
DRatings115-6 (0.455)0-0.67566
0.03670
0.03869

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.