Heracles Almelo at Ajax

Updated

Heracles Almelo

5.4%10.6%84.1%
WinDrawAjax Win
0.70Projected Goals 3.08
0Final Score 4

Ajax

Last 5 Games

Heracles Almelo
Money Line
W 2-4 vs Go Ahead Eagles
T 1-1 at NAC Breda
T 1-1 vs Groningen
T 1-1 vs Utrecht
W 2-0 at Almere City
Ajax
Money Line
W 2-0 at Fortuna Sittard
W 1-2 vs Feyenoord
W 2-0 at Heerenveen
W 1-2 vs RKC Waalwijk
W 2-0 at Sparta Rotterdam-160

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
3.2%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Heracles Almelo+1200+767+750+670+772+670+772+733.2
Ajax-600-302-360-323-352-323-302-239.7
Draw+650+478+500+430+467+430+500+473.5
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Heracles Almelo-----+733.2
Ajax------239.7
Draw-----+473.5

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Heracles Almelo: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Ajax: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Heracles Almelo: 0.0%
Ajax: 40.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Heracles Almelo: 20.0%
Ajax: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Heracles Almelo ML moved from +675 to +650
Ajax ML moved from -296 to -302

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
2.8%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3½-115o3-128o3¼-102o3¼+102o3¼+102o3¼+102o3-128o3¼+111
Underu3½-105u3+109u3¼-118u3¼-122u3¼-124u3¼-122u3¼-118u3¼-111
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o3¼+111
Under-----u3¼-111

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 20.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes47.9%
 
No52.1%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 02.29%
Exactly 216.32%
Exactly 419.41%
Exactly 69.24%
Exactly 82.35%
Exactly 100.37%
 
Exactly 18.64%
Exactly 320.55%
Exactly 514.67%
Exactly 74.98%
Exactly 90.99%
Exactly 110.13%
Exact Goals Scored - Heracles Almelo
Exactly 049.79%
Exactly 134.72%
Exactly 212.11%
Exactly 32.81%
Exactly 40.49%
Exact Goals Scored - Ajax
Exactly 04.59%
Exactly 114.15%
Exactly 221.79%
Exactly 322.38%
Exactly 417.24%
Exactly 510.62%
Exactly 65.45%
Exactly 72.40%
Exactly 80.92%
Exactly 90.32%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 017.39%
Exactly 226.61%
Exactly 46.78%
Exactly 60.69%
 
Exactly 130.42%
Exactly 315.51%
Exactly 52.37%
Exactly 70.17%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Heracles Almelo
Exactly 072.41%
Exactly 123.38%
Exactly 23.77%
Exactly 30.41%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Ajax
Exactly 024.02%
Exactly 134.26%
Exactly 224.43%
Exactly 311.62%
Exactly 44.14%
Exactly 51.18%
Exactly 60.28%

Alternate Props

Spread

Heracles Almelo
Wins by 2+ goals1.28%
Wins by 3+ goals0.22%
Ajax
Wins by 2+ goals66.07%
Wins by 3+ goals45.03%
Wins by 4+ goals26.45%
Wins by 5+ goals13.45%
Wins by 6+ goals5.95%
Wins by 7+ goals2.28%
Wins by 8+ goals0.73%
Wins by 9+ goals0.16%

Exact Winning Margin

Heracles Almelo
Ajax
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Heracles Almelo
Wins by 1 goal4.03%
Wins by 2 goals1.06%
Wins by 3 goals0.20%
Ajax
Wins by 1 goal17.86%
Wins by 2 goals21.03%
Wins by 3 goals18.58%
Wins by 4 goals13.00%
Wins by 5 goals7.50%
Wins by 6 goals3.67%
Wins by 7 goals1.55%
Wins by 8 goals0.57%
Wins by 9 goals0.16%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.597.71%2.29%
1.589.07%10.93%
2.572.75%27.25%
3.552.20%47.80%
4.532.79%67.21%
5.518.12%81.88%
6.58.88%91.12%
7.53.90%96.10%
8.51.55%98.45%

Total Goals Heracles Almelo Over/Under

OverUnder
0.550.21%49.79%
1.515.49%84.51%
2.53.38%96.62%

Total Goals Ajax Over/Under

OverUnder
0.595.41%4.59%
1.581.26%18.74%
2.559.46%40.54%
3.537.08%62.92%
4.519.85%80.15%
5.59.23%90.77%
6.53.77%96.23%
7.51.37%98.63%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.582.61%17.39%
1.552.19%47.81%
2.525.58%74.42%
3.510.07%89.93%
4.53.28%96.72%

Score Props

Correct Score

Heracles Almelo
Ajax
Score012345
0
2.29%
7.05%
10.85%
11.14%
8.58%
5.29%
1
1.59%
4.91%
7.57%
7.77%
5.98%
3.69%
2
0.56%
1.71%
2.64%
2.71%
2.09%
1.29%
3
0.13%
0.40%
0.61%
0.63%
0.48%
0.30%
Heracles Almelo
1-01.59%
2-00.56%
2-11.71%
3-00.13%
3-10.40%
3-20.61%
Draw
0-02.29%
1-14.91%
2-22.64%
3-30.63%
Ajax
0-17.05%
0-210.85%
1-27.57%
0-311.14%
1-37.77%
2-32.71%
0-48.58%
1-45.98%
2-42.09%
3-40.48%
0-55.29%
1-53.69%
2-51.29%
3-50.30%

Correct Score - First Half

Heracles Almelo
Ajax
Score0123456
0
17.39%
24.81%
17.69%
8.41%
3.00%
0.86%
0.20%
1
5.61%
8.01%
5.71%
2.72%
0.97%
0.28%
0.07%
2
0.91%
1.29%
0.92%
0.44%
0.16%
0.04%
0.01%
Heracles Almelo
1-05.61%
2-00.91%
2-11.29%
Draw
0-017.39%
1-18.01%
2-20.92%
Ajax
0-124.81%
0-217.69%
1-25.71%
0-38.41%
1-32.72%
2-30.44%
0-43.00%
1-40.97%
2-40.16%
0-50.86%
1-50.28%
0-60.20%