Ajax at Heerenveen

Updated

Ajax

61.6%20.5%17.8%
Ajax WinDrawWin
2.08Projected Goals 1.02
2Final Score 0

Heerenveen

Last 5 Games

Ajax
Money Line
W 1-2 vs RKC Waalwijk
W 2-0 at Sparta Rotterdam-160
W 0-3 vs Almere City-700
L 1-2 at AZ Alkmaar+160
T 2-2 vs Utrecht-225
Heerenveen
Money Line
W 4-2 at NAC Breda
L 0-3 at Almere City+125
W 0-1 vs PSV Eindhoven+850
W 2-1 at Willem II+250
T 1-1 vs RKC Waalwijk-150

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
3.8%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Ajax-170-159-170-164-172-164-159-134.8
Heerenveen+420+437+420+355+432+355+437+392.3
Draw+310+317+300+315+317+315+317+349.0
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Ajax------134.8
Heerenveen-----+392.3
Draw-----+349.0

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Ajax: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Heerenveen: 30.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Ajax: 0.0%
Heerenveen: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Ajax: 0.0%
Heerenveen: 30.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Ajax ML moved from -165 to -172
Heerenveen ML moved from +427 to +412

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
0.4%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3-102o3+104o3+105o2¾-114o3+102o2¾-114o2¾-114o2¾-104
Underu3-118u3-122u3-125u2¾-106u3-124u2¾-106u3-122u2¾+104
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o2¾-104
Under-----u2¾+104

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 10.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 10.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 10.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
The Under moved from u2¾+105 to u2¾-122

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes56.1%
 
No43.9%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 04.49%
Exactly 221.62%
Exactly 417.35%
Exactly 65.57%
Exactly 80.96%
Exactly 100.10%
 
Exactly 113.93%
Exactly 322.37%
Exactly 510.77%
Exactly 72.47%
Exactly 90.33%
Exact Goals Scored - Ajax
Exactly 012.51%
Exactly 126.01%
Exactly 227.03%
Exactly 318.72%
Exactly 49.73%
Exactly 54.04%
Exactly 61.40%
Exactly 70.42%
Exactly 80.11%
Exact Goals Scored - Heerenveen
Exactly 035.88%
Exactly 136.78%
Exactly 218.85%
Exactly 36.44%
Exactly 41.65%
Exactly 50.34%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 023.77%
Exactly 224.53%
Exactly 44.22%
Exactly 60.29%
 
Exactly 134.15%
Exactly 311.75%
Exactly 51.21%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Ajax
Exactly 038.20%
Exactly 136.76%
Exactly 217.69%
Exactly 35.67%
Exactly 41.37%
Exactly 50.26%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Heerenveen
Exactly 062.22%
Exactly 129.52%
Exactly 27.00%
Exactly 31.11%
Exactly 40.13%

Alternate Props

Spread

Ajax
Wins by 2+ goals38.09%
Wins by 3+ goals19.38%
Wins by 4+ goals8.23%
Wins by 5+ goals2.96%
Heerenveen
Wins by 2+ goals6.20%
Wins by 3+ goals1.66%
Wins by 4+ goals0.34%

Exact Winning Margin

Ajax
Heerenveen
5
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
Ajax
Wins by 1 goal23.50%
Wins by 2 goals18.70%
Wins by 3 goals11.16%
Wins by 4 goals5.27%
Wins by 5 goals2.05%
Heerenveen
Wins by 1 goal11.58%
Wins by 2 goals4.54%
Wins by 3 goals1.33%
Wins by 4 goals0.29%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.595.51%4.49%
1.581.58%18.42%
2.559.96%40.04%
3.537.59%62.41%
4.520.24%79.76%
5.59.47%90.53%
6.53.90%96.10%
7.51.43%98.57%

Total Goals Ajax Over/Under

OverUnder
0.587.49%12.51%
1.561.48%38.52%
2.534.45%65.55%
3.515.73%84.27%
4.56.00%94.00%
5.51.96%98.04%

Total Goals Heerenveen Over/Under

OverUnder
0.564.12%35.88%
1.527.34%72.66%
2.58.49%91.51%
3.52.06%97.94%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.576.23%23.77%
1.542.08%57.92%
2.517.55%82.45%
3.55.80%94.20%
4.51.58%98.42%

Score Props

Correct Score

Ajax
Heerenveen
Score01234
0
4.49%
4.60%
2.36%
0.81%
0.21%
1
9.33%
9.56%
4.90%
1.67%
0.43%
2
9.70%
9.94%
5.09%
1.74%
0.45%
3
6.72%
6.89%
3.53%
1.21%
0.31%
4
3.49%
3.58%
1.83%
0.63%
0.16%
5
1.45%
1.49%
0.76%
0.26%
0.07%
Ajax
1-09.33%
2-09.70%
2-19.94%
3-06.72%
3-16.89%
3-23.53%
4-03.49%
4-13.58%
4-21.83%
4-30.63%
5-01.45%
5-11.49%
5-20.76%
5-30.26%
Draw
0-04.49%
1-19.56%
2-25.09%
3-31.21%
4-40.16%
Heerenveen
0-14.60%
0-22.36%
1-24.90%
0-30.81%
1-31.67%
2-31.74%
0-40.21%
1-40.43%
2-40.45%
3-40.31%

Correct Score - First Half

Ajax
Heerenveen
Score0123
0
23.77%
11.28%
2.68%
0.42%
1
22.87%
10.85%
2.57%
0.41%
2
11.01%
5.22%
1.24%
0.20%
3
3.53%
1.68%
0.40%
0.06%
4
0.85%
0.40%
0.10%
0.02%
5
0.16%
0.08%
0.02%
0.00%
Ajax
1-022.87%
2-011.01%
2-15.22%
3-03.53%
3-11.68%
3-20.40%
4-00.85%
4-10.40%
5-00.16%
Draw
0-023.77%
1-110.85%
2-21.24%
Heerenveen
0-111.28%
0-22.68%
1-22.57%
0-30.42%
1-30.41%
2-30.20%