NEC Nijmegen at Excelsior

Updated

NEC Nijmegen

40.1%28.5%31.4%
NEC Nijmegen WinDrawExcelsior Win
1.21Projected Goals 1.05
3Final Score 0

Excelsior

Last 5 Games

NEC Nijmegen
Money Line
L 3-0 vs AZ Alkmaar+220
T 2-2 vs Zwolle-180
W 3-0 at Vitesse+130
T 1-1 at Fortuna Sittard+215
W 1-3 vs PSV Eindhoven+625
Excelsior
Money Line
T 2-2 at Ajax+700
W 0-4 vs Volendam-140
L 1-2 at Zwolle+275
L 2-0 vs PSV Eindhoven+1500
L 0-3 at Go Ahead Eagles+520

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
3.1%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
5.0%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
NEC Nijmegen+130+202+210+200+205+200+210+216.7
Excelsior+185+129+120+125+127+125+129+137.5
Draw+255+267+245+260+266+260+267+280.0
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
NEC Nijmegen+125----+190+190+216.7
Excelsior+190----+125+125+137.5
Draw+280----+280+280+280.0

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
NEC Nijmegen: 20.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Excelsior: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

NEC Nijmegen: 40.0%
Excelsior: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%
Excelsior: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

NEC Nijmegen ML moved from +165 to +153
Excelsior ML moved from +135 to +125

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
NEC Nijmegen: 20.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Excelsior: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

NEC Nijmegen: 40.0%
Excelsior: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%
Excelsior: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On NEC Nijmegen ML
Excelsior ML moved from +135 to +125

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
1.7%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3¼-115o3-116o3-105o3-112o3-111o3-112o3-105o3-102
Underu3¼-105u3-102u3-115u3-108u3-107u3-108u3-102u3+102
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o3-102
Under-----u3+102

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 20.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 20.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes45.7%
 
No54.3%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 010.38%
Exactly 226.63%
Exactly 411.39%
Exactly 61.95%
Exactly 80.18%
 
Exactly 123.52%
Exactly 320.11%
Exactly 55.16%
Exactly 70.63%
Exact Goals Scored - NEC Nijmegen
Exactly 029.53%
Exactly 136.02%
Exactly 221.97%
Exactly 38.93%
Exactly 42.72%
Exactly 50.66%
Exactly 60.14%
Exact Goals Scored - Excelsior
Exactly 035.16%
Exactly 136.75%
Exactly 219.21%
Exactly 36.69%
Exactly 41.75%
Exactly 50.37%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 035.04%
Exactly 219.27%
Exactly 41.77%
 
Exactly 136.75%
Exactly 36.74%
Exactly 50.37%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - NEC Nijmegen
Exactly 056.85%
Exactly 132.11%
Exactly 29.07%
Exactly 31.71%
Exactly 40.24%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Excelsior
Exactly 061.64%
Exactly 129.83%
Exactly 27.22%
Exactly 31.16%
Exactly 40.14%

Alternate Props

Spread

NEC Nijmegen
Wins by 2+ goals17.42%
Wins by 3+ goals5.84%
Wins by 4+ goals1.56%
Wins by 5+ goals0.33%
Excelsior
Wins by 2+ goals11.94%
Wins by 3+ goals3.44%
Wins by 4+ goals0.76%
Wins by 5+ goals0.11%

Exact Winning Margin

NEC Nijmegen
Excelsior
5
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
NEC Nijmegen
Wins by 1 goal22.65%
Wins by 2 goals11.58%
Wins by 3 goals4.28%
Wins by 4 goals1.23%
Wins by 5 goals0.28%
Excelsior
Wins by 1 goal19.41%
Wins by 2 goals8.50%
Wins by 3 goals2.69%
Wins by 4 goals0.65%
Wins by 5 goals0.11%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.589.62%10.38%
1.566.10%33.90%
2.539.47%60.53%
3.519.36%80.64%
4.57.97%92.03%
5.52.81%97.19%

Total Goals NEC Nijmegen Over/Under

OverUnder
0.570.47%29.53%
1.534.45%65.55%
2.512.48%87.52%
3.53.55%96.45%

Total Goals Excelsior Over/Under

OverUnder
0.564.84%35.16%
1.528.08%71.92%
2.58.88%91.12%
3.52.19%97.81%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.564.96%35.04%
1.528.21%71.79%
2.58.95%91.05%
3.52.21%97.79%

Score Props

Correct Score

NEC Nijmegen
Excelsior
Score012345
0
10.38%
10.85%
5.67%
1.98%
0.52%
0.11%
1
12.67%
13.24%
6.92%
2.41%
0.63%
0.13%
2
7.72%
8.07%
4.22%
1.47%
0.38%
0.08%
3
3.14%
3.28%
1.72%
0.60%
0.16%
0.03%
4
0.96%
1.00%
0.52%
0.18%
0.05%
0.01%
5
0.23%
0.24%
0.13%
0.04%
0.01%
0.00%
NEC Nijmegen
1-012.67%
2-07.72%
2-18.07%
3-03.14%
3-13.28%
3-21.72%
4-00.96%
4-11.00%
4-20.52%
4-30.18%
5-00.23%
5-10.24%
5-20.13%
Draw
0-010.38%
1-113.24%
2-24.22%
3-30.60%
Excelsior
0-110.85%
0-25.67%
1-26.92%
0-31.98%
1-32.41%
2-31.47%
0-40.52%
1-40.63%
2-40.38%
3-40.16%
0-50.11%
1-50.13%

Correct Score - First Half

NEC Nijmegen
Excelsior
Score0123
0
35.04%
16.96%
4.10%
0.66%
1
19.79%
9.58%
2.32%
0.37%
2
5.59%
2.70%
0.65%
0.11%
3
1.05%
0.51%
0.12%
0.02%
4
0.15%
0.07%
0.02%
0.00%
NEC Nijmegen
1-019.79%
2-05.59%
2-12.70%
3-01.05%
3-10.51%
3-20.12%
4-00.15%
Draw
0-035.04%
1-19.58%
2-20.65%
Excelsior
0-116.96%
0-24.10%
1-22.32%
0-30.66%
1-30.37%
2-30.11%