Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for December 8, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Gil Vicente FC
Vitoria 		19.4%
56.0%		24.5%
+176
+178
+170
+185
0.86
1.64		2.50
o2-122
u2+102

Games for Dec 7, 2025
Games for Dec 9, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Estoril
Rio Ave		30.0%
40.2%		29.9%
+235
+131
+230
+130
4
0		-1.23843-1.24303-1.20484
Famalicao
Nacional		34.2%
38.2%		27.7%
+134
+215
+125
+220
1
0		-0.88751-0.86074-1.07376
Alverca
Sporting CP		3.1%
88.3%		8.6%
+2174
-865
+2000
-975
0
2		-0.14438-0.14628-0.12485
Porto
Moreirense		68.2%
12.3%		19.4%
-343
+1000
-400
+1050
2
1		-0.29361-0.27278-0.38242
Casa Pia AC
Braga		8.3%
76.4%		15.3%
+675
-218
+720
-250
0
4		-0.41133-0.38649-0.26957
Sporting CP
Tondela		69.7%
11.8%		18.5%
-405
+1040
-425
+1025
3
0		-0.25996-0.26004-0.36123
Vitoria
Famalicao		31.4%
41.0%		27.6%
+375
-121
+375
-125
0
2		-0.63316-0.63828-0.89057
Nacional
Estoril		26.4%
46.5%		27.1%
+206
+149
+200
+145
1
1		-1.23340-1.22670-1.30678
Arouca
Benfica		4.6%
84.2%		11.1%
+1242
-530
+1400
-650
0
5		-0.21193-0.19283-0.17148
Rio Ave
Estrela		29.6%
41.2%		29.2%
+144
+200
+195
+155
2
1		-0.95566-1.12927-1.21794
AVS
Santa Clara		12.1%
68.3%		19.6%
+632
-189
+650
-205
0
2		-0.46150-0.44549-0.38067
Gil Vicente FC
Alverca		41.6%
29.7%		28.7%
+143
+235
+140
+225
4
0		-0.91799-0.92637-0.87794
Benfica
Porto		28.9%
44.4%		26.7%
+293
+103
+290
+100
0
0		-1.26833-1.27307-1.32189
Braga
Sporting CP		11.0%
71.6%		17.4%
+563
-208
+500
-200
1
1		-1.58406-1.57552-1.74985
Tondela
Rio Ave		31.3%
39.5%		29.2%
+184
+162
+185
+150
0
3		-0.99155-0.96451-0.92821
Famalicao
Arouca		34.9%
35.8%		29.3%
-105
+317
-115
+320
1
1		-1.29598-1.33044-1.22915
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks43-0-1 (0.875)0-0.76374 
Sportsbooks43-0-1 (0.875)0-0.74823 
DRatings43-0-1 (0.875)0-0.90296
-0.13922
-0.15473

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).