Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 27, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Rio Ave
FC Vizela 		28.4%
42.8%		28.8%
+167
+192
+175
+170
0.95
1.24		2.19
o2¼-113
u2½-132

Volatility Bet Value Active
Chaves
Casa Pia AC 		22.2%
52.1%		25.7%
+305
+106
+290
+105
0.91
1.54		2.45
o2¼+103
u2¼-120

Braga
Benfica 		12.9%
68.7%		18.4%
+458
-170
+435
-175
0.85
2.24		3.09
o3-122
u3¼-120

Boavista
Vitoria 		12.8%
67.4%		19.8%
+468
-160
+475
-170
0.76
2.04		2.80
o2½-103
u2½-115

Games for Apr 26, 2024
Games for Apr 28, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Rio Ave
Boavista		30.9%
39.8%		29.2%
+155
+206
+145
+215
0
0		-1.17655-1.17847-1.22929
SC Farense
Arouca		18.8%
55.7%		25.5%
+393
-131
+375
-135
1
2		-0.59517-0.60468-0.58471
Moreirense
Vitoria		16.3%
61.0%		22.6%
+325
-102
+335
-110
0
1		-0.71541-0.69752-0.49384
Sporting CP
Estrela		74.7%
9.0%		16.3%
-400
+1184
-425
+1100
2
1		-0.25837-0.26282-0.29111
Chaves
Benfica		3.0%
89.0%		8.0%
+1989
-950
+2000
-1000
0
1		-0.15574-0.14595-0.11655
Famalicao
Gil Vicente FC		27.3%
45.8%		26.9%
+220
+158
+220
+140
2
1		-1.18055-1.21362-1.29905
Boavista
Sporting CP		4.2%
85.5%		10.3%
+1800
-715
+1700
-650
1
6		-0.17739-0.19309-0.15716
Benfica
Casa Pia AC		79.1%
7.1%		13.8%
-321
+1200
-350
+1050
1
0		-0.29447-0.30004-0.23415
Vitoria
Chaves		51.9%
22.5%		25.7%
+100
+322
-110
+310
2
1		-0.71478-0.69485-0.65662
Arouca
Moreirense		27.8%
43.5%		28.7%
+260
+121
+230
+125
0
1		-0.82050-0.86022-0.83266
FC Vizela
Porto		5.3%
82.6%		12.1%
+1800
-636
+1600
-700
1
4		-0.16782-0.18372-0.19091
Gil Vicente FC
Braga		8.3%
76.2%		15.5%
+639
-235
+600
-235
1
2		-0.39070-0.40386-0.27194
Rio Ave
SC Farense		31.0%
38.5%		30.5%
+188
+177
+175
+175
1
1		-1.16616-1.18006-1.18718
Estrela
Famalicao		21.5%
54.3%		24.3%
+330
+105
+340
-105
0
0		-1.22974-1.21382-1.41671
Portimonense
Estoril		23.4%
48.7%		27.9%
+414
-144
+440
-160
0
1		-0.56208-0.53485-0.72031
Chaves
Gil Vicente FC		19.1%
56.3%		24.5%
+326
-102
+325
-105
0
0		-1.26121-1.24320-1.40560
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.32246 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.32931 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.20597
0.11649
0.12334

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).