UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for March 21, 2026

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lerone Murphy
Movsar Evloev 		27.6%
72.4%
+225
-260

Michael Aswell
Luke Riley 		32.5%
67.5%
+170
-200

Sam Patterson
Michael Page 		20.3%
79.7%
+195
-230

Austen Lane
Iwo Baraniewski 		19.8%
80.2%
+300
-400

Roman Dolidze
Christian Duncan 		55.0%
45.0%
+285
-350

Axel Sola
Mason Jones 		28.3%
71.7%
+100
-120

Losene Keita
Nathaniel Wood 		65.8%
34.2%
-170
+145

Brando Pericic
Louie Southerland 		38.2%
61.8%
-200
+170

Shem Rock
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady 		33.9%
66.1%
+105
-125

Luana Carolina
Mellisa Dixon 		36.4%
63.6%
-120
+100

Fights for Mar 14, 2026
Fights for Mar 22, 2026

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lone'er Kavanagh
Brandon Moreno		37.7%
62.3%
+176
-190
+170
-190
Win
Loss		-1.03257-1.01846-0.97593
Marlon Vera
David Martinez		26.8%
73.2%
+255
-300
+290
-325
Loss
Win		-0.31888-0.28916-0.31203
Bobby Green
Daniel Zellhuber		27.0%
73.0%
+325
-350
+330
-340
Win
Loss		-1.45994-1.46387-1.30959
Felipe Bunes
Edgar Chairez		26.9%
73.1%
+240
-255
+240
-250
Loss
Win		-0.34321-0.34485-0.31326
Kevin Borjas
Imanol Rodriguez		24.4%
75.6%
+400
-450
+350
-400
Loss
Win		-0.21869-0.24512-0.27993
Angel Pacheco
Santiago Luna		25.0%
75.0%
+750
-810
+650
-750
Loss
Win		-0.12414-0.14072-0.28759
Jose Medina
Ryan Gandra		21.2%
78.8%
+650
-950
+650
-800
Loss
Win		-0.13747-0.13976-0.23869
Macy Chiasson
Ailin Perez		42.6%
57.4%
+165
-182
+165
-180
Loss
Win		-0.46040-0.46185-0.55542
Kris Moutinho
Cristian Quinonez		16.4%
83.6%
+500
-625
+475
-600
Loss
Win		-0.17675-0.18473-0.17892
Javier Reyez
Douglas Silva de Andrade		63.2%
36.8%
-260
+225
-230
+225
Win
Loss		-0.35489-0.36566-0.45842
Regina Tarin
Ernesta Kareckaite		40.1%
59.9%
+125
-145
+115
-127
Win
Loss		-0.84658-0.78975-0.91494
Francis Marshall
Erik Silva		82.9%
17.1%
-1100
+750
-800
+700
Win
Loss		-0.12076-0.13158-0.18811
Wes Schultz
Damian Pinas		35.2%
64.8%
+195
-225
+210
-225
Loss
Win		-0.39854-0.38251-0.43325
Sean Strickland
Anthony Hernandez		32.1%
67.9%
+222
-255
+230
-255
Win
Loss		-1.19783-1.21503-1.13482
Uros Medic
Geoff Neal		41.4%
58.6%
+182
-200
+180
-200
Win
Loss		-1.05780-1.05317-0.88068
Dan Ige
Melquizael Costa		39.1%
60.9%
+205
-240
+210
-240
Loss
Win		-0.38151-0.37637-0.49610
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks1310-3 (0.769)0-0.46099 
Sportsbooks1310-3 (0.769)0-0.45831 
DRatings1310-3 (0.769)0-0.49585
-0.03487
-0.03754

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.