UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for July 11, 2026

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Max Holloway
Conor McGregor 		65.9%
34.1%
-235
+210
-245
+230
Overall Bet Value Active
Paddy Pimblett
Benoit Saint Denis 		44.0%
56.0%
+150
-172
+155
-165
Mario Bautista
Cory Sandhagen 		35.8%
64.2%
+133
-145
+130
-150
Lone'er Kavanagh
Brandon Royval 		58.3%
41.7%
-185
+170
-200
+170
Fights for Jun 27, 2026
Fights for Aug 15, 2026

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Kyoji Horiguchi
Manel Kape		35.8%
64.2%
+160
-150
+155
-170
Loss
Win		-0.49533-0.48418-0.44247
Ion Cutelaba
Navajo Stirling		35.4%
64.6%
+310
-310
+325
-360
Loss
Win		-0.27958-0.26286-0.43748
Christian Rodriguez
Hyder Amil		69.9%
30.1%
-195
+205
-220
+200
Win
Loss		-0.40279-0.39531-0.35826
Murtazali Magomedov
Melsik Baghdasaryan		74.3%
25.7%
-340
+430
-480
+400
Win
Loss		-0.21847-0.21645-0.29643
Vinicius Oliveira
Andre Fili		65.7%
34.3%
-240
+210
-250
+230
Win
Loss		-0.37637-0.35364-0.41937
Kevin Borjas
Andre Lima		27.7%
72.3%
+575
-650
+625
-900
Win
Loss		-1.92422-2.01823-1.28417
Mellisa Dixon
Bia Mesquita		17.7%
82.3%
+650
-750
+650
-900
Loss
Win		-0.14072-0.13815-0.19494
Mitch Raposo
Allan Nascimento		26.5%
73.5%
+160
-159
+135
-145
Win
Loss		-0.95402-0.87165-1.32791
Michael Aswell
Gaston Bolanos		76.8%
23.2%
-360
+340
-370
+320
Loss
Win		-1.49143-1.46007-1.46085
Levan Chokheli
Leon Shahbazyan		79.3%
20.7%
-365
+300
-380
+340
Win
Loss		-0.27649-0.25238-0.23154
Luana Santos
Karol Rosa		46.2%
53.8%
+108
+100
-115
+105
Win
Loss		-0.71294-0.64814-0.77204
Otari Tanzilovi
Shane Collins		39.5%
60.5%
+170
-200
+180
-195
Loss
Win		-0.44183-0.43197-0.50306
Justin Gaethje
Ilia Topuria		25.4%
74.6%
+375
-450
+380
-400
Win
Loss		-1.58645-1.57692-1.37160
Ciryl Gane
Alex Pereira		45.5%
54.5%
-101
-108
+100
-115
Win
Loss		-0.70966-0.72743-0.78779
Aiemann Zahabi
Sean O'Malley		27.9%
72.1%
+350
-415
+370
-405
Loss
Win		-0.24355-0.23532-0.32760
Josh Hokit
Derrick Lewis		72.3%
27.7%
-440
+410
-410
+375
Win
Loss		-0.21563-0.23260-0.32418
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks1913-6 (0.684)0-0.60347 
Sportsbooks1914-5 (0.737)0-0.59619 
DRatings1913-6 (0.684)0-0.60964
-0.00617
-0.01345

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.