College Football season is upon us and, in early August, there may not be a more debated topic than who is going to win the Heisman trophy. This Heisman list is littered with quarterbacks and running backs as can be expected. Being that eight of the last ten Heisman winners were quarterbacks (the other two being running backs) this should be no surprise.
Our methodology is simple…Vegas knows best. If they didn’t know best then Las Vegas would look like a ghost town and it would be all the gamblers that were rich with their mansions and such. Anyways, we took three top sportsbooks in 5Dimes, Top Bet, and Bovada and turned their odds into probabilities. We averaged out all of the probabilities on each of the players in every sports book, then further went on to remove the “juice” so as to give accurate odds.
Below, you can see the results and the probabilities to win the Heisman. Last year’s winner, Jameis Winston, comes in first with a 12.9% probability of winning, followed by Marcus Mariota in the spread offense at Oregon, and Braxton Miller, who is poised for another breakout season at Ohio State.
What makes the Heisman so interesting is that there is actually almost a 25% chance that someone on our list of 24 doesn’t win it. You only have to look back to last year to remember that Jameis Winston wasn’t on anyone’s radar as a freshman and he went on to win it.