2022 NFL Season Preview


Welcome to our 2022 NFL Season Preview! For the first time, we bring you our projected win totals for every team! Our preview is based on a simulation of our ratings and data. We ran 10,000 iterations of the season to hopefully cover every scenario that could be encountered.

We’ll start with the favorites and work our way down to the team least likely to win the Super Bowl.

1. Buffalo Bills

The Bills are the current favorite to win the Super Bowl in 2022. We also give them about a 19.4% chance to win the AFC Championship.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
<0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 1% 2.2% 3.9% 6.5% 9.9% 12% 15.3% 15.4% 14.1% 10.3% 5.9% 2.2% 0.5%

Projected Record: 11.3-5.7
Projected Odds to Win Division: 61.3%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 79.6%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 11.7%

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

How good can the Bucs be with a 45 year old, Tom Brady at the helm? His health and commitment are the biggest concerns going into the season.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
<0.1% <0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 1.5% 2.5% 4.5% 7% 10.1% 13.1% 14.4% 15.1% 13.6% 9.3% 5.4% 2.2% 0.4%

Projected Record: 11.2-5.8
Projected Odds to Win Division: 67.1%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 82.5%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 10.5%

3. Green Bay Packers

The biggest question for Green Bay is their young and inexperienced recieving core. Besides that, this team is rock solid.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
<0.1% <0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 1.6% 3.1% 5.4% 8.6% 11.7% 14.3% 14.9% 13.9% 11.6% 7.8% 4.3% 1.6% 0.3%

Projected Record: 10.7-6.3
Projected Odds to Win Division: 57.2%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 76.1%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 8.4%

4. Los Angeles Rams

The Rams have become a perennial Super Bowl contender and this year is no different.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
<0.1% <0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 1.2% 2.3% 4.3% 6.8% 10% 12.5% 14.7% 15.2% 12.9% 9.9% 6% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2%

Projected Record: 10.5-6.5
Projected Odds to Win Division: 46.9%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 73.1%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 8%

5. Kansas City Chiefs

With Mahomes running the show, the Chiefs seemingly have a shot at the Super Bowl every year.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
<0.1% <0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 1.1% 2.6% 4.5% 6.8% 10.5% 12.5% 13.9% 14.7% 12.8% 9.6% 6.1% 3.3% 0.9% 0.1%

Projected Record: 10.2-6.8
Projected Odds to Win Division: 33.4%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 62.9%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 7.8%

6. Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert has thrived in this Chargers offense and that puts the Chargers up there with the Chiefs as the top teams in the AFC West.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
<0.1% <0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 1.2% 2.7% 4.9% 7.2% 10.5% 13.6% 14.2% 14.4% 12.4% 8.9% 5.7% 2.6% 1% 0.2%

Projected Record: 10.1-6.9
Projected Odds to Win Division: 30.7%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 61.8%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 6.3%

7. Cincinnati Bengals

They were the surprise team in the Super Bowl last year, but the Bengals will be on everyone’s radar this year.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
<0.1% <0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 1.7% 2.9% 5% 8.3% 10.7% 13.5% 14.9% 13.7% 11.3% 9.1% 4.9% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2%

Projected Record: 9.9-7.1
Projected Odds to Win Division: 38%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 60.4%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 5.1%

8. Indianapolis Colts

Being the best team in the very weak AFC South could help slingshot the Colts into a good playoff position.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
<0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.9% 1.6% 3.5% 5.8% 8.7% 10.7% 13.3% 14.6% 14.5% 10.9% 7.9% 4.5% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2%

Projected Record: 9.7-7.3
Projected Odds to Win Division: 53%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 63.8%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 4.7%

9. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys have been chasing the Super Bowl dream for years now and they have a good opportunity this year as the best team in the NFC East.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
<0.1% <0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 1.5% 2.7% 5.3% 8.5% 11% 13.7% 15% 13.6% 11.6% 8.2% 4.9% 2.4% 0.8% 0.1%

Projected Record: 10-7
Projected Odds to Win Division: 38.3%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 64.2%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 4.6%

10. San Francisco 49ers

The big question surrounding the 49ers is what they will do with their quarterback situation. Looks like Garoppolo for now, but the situation is strange.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
<0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.8% 1.5% 3.4% 5.6% 8.7% 11.5% 13.7% 13.6% 13.4% 11.3% 8.4% 4.8% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%

Projected Record: 9.7-7.3
Projected Odds to Win Division: 32.1%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 60%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 4.3%

11. Minnesota Vikings

It’ll be a tough go in the NFC North with Green Bay in the division, but the Vikings could surprise and have a better than 50-50 chance to make the playoffs.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
<0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 1.1% 2.2% 4.9% 7.2% 11.1% 13.1% 14% 14.2% 12.1% 8.9% 5.6% 3.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%

Projected Record: 9.1-7.9
Projected Odds to Win Division: 27.6%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 52%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 4%

12. Baltimore Ravens

We give the Ravens just over a 50% chance to make the playoffs in a very competitive AFC North division.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
<0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 1% 2.3% 4% 6.8% 9.5% 12.1% 13.3% 13.6% 12.5% 10.8% 7.1% 4.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%

Projected Record: 9.4-7.6
Projected Odds to Win Division: 30.9%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 51.5%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 3.1%

13. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles look like the 2nd best team in the NFC East, but have just over a 32% chance to win the division.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
<0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 1.2% 2.3% 3.9% 6.9% 9.7% 12.9% 13.6% 14.5% 12.1% 9.7% 6.8% 3.9% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2%

Projected Record: 9.4-7.6
Projected Odds to Win Division: 32.3%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 58.2%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 2.9%

14. Miami Dolphins

The word from camp is that Tua has looked very good at quarterback. They’ll need him to be perfect to have a shot at the Super Bowl.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
<0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 1.2% 2.7% 5.2% 7.7% 11.4% 13.4% 14.4% 13.8% 11.9% 8.4% 5.5% 2.7% 1% 0.2% <0.1%

Projected Record: 9-8
Projected Odds to Win Division: 20%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 45.7%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 2.8%

15. Tennessee Titans

The AFC South is pretty weak so the Titans have a decent path, but the odds are a little stacked against them.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
<0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 1.4% 3.4% 5.6% 8.6% 11.3% 14.2% 14.4% 13.9% 10.7% 8.1% 4.5% 2.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%

Projected Record: 9-8
Projected Odds to Win Division: 20%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 45.7%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 2.8%

16. Denver Broncos

The Broncos are in our preseason top-10, but the AFC West is stacked. They are likely the third best team in the division.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
<0.1% <0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 1.9% 4% 6.4% 9% 12.5% 13.9% 15.4% 12.9% 9.9% 6.8% 4.2% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1%

Projected Record: 9.6-7.4
Projected Odds to Win Division: 22.6%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 55.8%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 1.7%

17. New Orleans Saints

Jameis Winston is very unpredictable. If he is good, then the Saints could be a very good team.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
<0.1% 0.2% 0.8% 1.8% 3.6% 6.8% 9.3% 11.8% 13.5% 14.8% 12.5% 10.1% 7.2% 4.4% 2.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Projected Record: 8.7-8.3
Projected Odds to Win Division: 23.4%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 45.5%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 1.7%

18. Las Vegas Raiders

The worst team in the very formidable AFC West, and they are still projected to have as many wins as losses.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
<0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 2.2% 4.1% 6% 9.9% 12.1% 14.3% 14% 13% 10.2% 7% 3.9% 1.7% 0.8% 0.1% <0.1%

Projected Record: 8.5-8.5
Projected Odds to Win Division: 13.3%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 37.3%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 1.6%

19. New England Patriots

We are still waiting to see just how good Mac Jones is. It will be an interesting year for the Patriots.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
<0.1% 0.2% 0.8% 2.2% 4.7% 6.8% 10.3% 12.2% 14.6% 14% 12.3% 9.5% 6.2% 3.7% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% <0.1%

Projected Record: 8.4-8.6
Projected Odds to Win Division: 14.9%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 37.2%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 1.6%

20. Arizona Cardinals

Making the NFL Playoffs would be a good year for this Cardinal team.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
0.1% 0.2% 0.8% 1.9% 4.5% 6.5% 9.9% 12.1% 14% 13.8% 12% 10% 6.9% 4% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% <0.1%

Projected Record: 8.5-8.5
Projected Odds to Win Division: 18.2%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 41.2%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 1.5%

21. Cleveland Browns

Deshaun Watson will miss eleven games. It will be interesting to see what the Browns do at QB until then.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
<0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 2.4% 4.6% 7% 10.8% 13.3% 14.6% 13.2% 12.1% 8.8% 6.2% 3.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% <0.1%

Projected Record: 8.4-8.6
Projected Odds to Win Division: 19.2%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 36%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 1.2%

22. Pittsburgh Steelers

A little bit of a rebuilding year as the Steelers move on from long time starter Ben Roethlisberger.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
0.1% 0.7% 1.7% 4.6% 7.5% 11% 13.2% 14.2% 13.6% 11.4% 8.8% 6.1% 3.7% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% <0.1% <0.1%

Projected Record: 7.4-9.6
Projected Odds to Win Division: 11.9%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 26.9%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 1%

23. New York Giants

Seems like another year with little excitement surrounding the chances of the Giants making any sort of meaningful run.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
0.1% 0.6% 2.2% 4.3% 7.7% 11.2% 14.7% 14.3% 12.8% 11.6% 8.7% 5.6% 3.2% 2% 0.7% 0.2% <0.1% <0.1%

Projected Record: 7.4-9.6
Projected Odds to Win Division: 10.9%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 29.9%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 0.8%

24. Washington Commanders

The Commanders could be a team to watch if Carson Wentz can return to his peak form.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
0.1% 0.2% 1% 2.2% 4.6% 7.9% 11.1% 12.8% 14.7% 13.9% 11.5% 8.6% 5.5% 3.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%

Projected Record: 8.3-8.7
Projected Odds to Win Division: 18.5%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 39.7%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 0.7%

25. Detroit Lions

The Lions are on this season of Hard Knocks, so basically, their season is doomed.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
0.2% 1% 2.8% 5.5% 10.3% 13.3% 14.3% 14% 12.8% 10.2% 7% 4.3% 2.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% <0.1% <0.1%

Projected Record: 6.8-10.2
Projected Odds to Win Division: 7.5%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 19.6%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 0.5%

26. Carolina Panthers

There is some excitement about Baker Mayfield coming to town, but it’s very unlikely he makes the Panthers a better team.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
0.2% 0.9% 3% 5.5% 9.1% 12.9% 14.3% 14% 12.9% 10.4% 7.5% 5% 2.4% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% <0.1% <0.1%

Projected Record: 6.8-10.2
Projected Odds to Win Division: 7.4%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 21.4%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 0.3%

27. Jacksonville Jaguars

It will be interesting to see the progression of Trevor Lawrence, or more importantly, the offensive line protecting him.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
0.1% 0.9% 3.2% 6.9% 10.3% 13% 14.5% 14.6% 13.3% 9.5% 6.3% 3.8% 2.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% <0.1% <0.1%

Projected Record: 6.6-10.4
Projected Odds to Win Division: 10.2%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 17.4%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 0.2%

28. Chicago Bears

This year will be about seeing if Justin Fields is the quarterback of the future.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
0.2% 1.2% 3.3% 6.8% 10.9% 13.1% 14.7% 14.3% 12.4% 9.3% 6.5% 3.9% 2.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% <0.1% <0.1%

Projected Record: 6.4-10.6
Projected Odds to Win Division: 7.7%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 17.8%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 0.2%

29. New York Jets

It looks like this will be another rebuilding year for the Jets.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
0.6% 2.8% 5.9% 10.9% 13.9% 15.3% 15.3% 12.3% 9.6% 6.3% 3.9% 1.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1%

Projected Record: 5.7-11.3
Projected Odds to Win Division: 3.8%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 9.6%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 0.1%

30. Atlanta Falcons

By October, it’s likely the most Atlanta fans will be looking forward to Hawks games.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
0.6% 3.4% 7.6% 11.9% 14.8% 16.4% 14.4% 11.9% 8.1% 5.3% 3.1% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1%

Projected Record: 5.3-11.7
Projected Odds to Win Division: 2.1%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 7.8%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 0.1%

31. Houston Texans

Projected to be the worst team in arguably the worst divisions in the NFL.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
1.4% 5.3% 10.4% 15.7% 16.4% 15.6% 13.3% 9% 5.6% 3.6% 2.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1%

Projected Record: 4.9-12.1
Projected Odds to Win Division: 4.6%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 7.5%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%

32. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are this year’s odds on favorite to get the first pick of the draft.

Projected Win Totals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
0.4% 2.4% 5.4% 9.8% 13.9% 15.4% 15.8% 12.5% 9.6% 6.9% 4% 2.3% 1% 0.4% 0.2% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1%

Projected Record: 5.7-11.3
Projected Odds to Win Division: 2.8%
Projected Odds to Make the Playoffs: 11%
Projected Odds to Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%