2025-2026 NFL Season Preview

 in General / Pro Football by

As the 2025-26 NFL season approaches, DRatings projections are in. We’ve run the numbers across all 32 franchises, simulating the season thousands of times to provide projected records, playoff probabilities, and Super Bowl chances.

The results highlight a league that looks top-heavy with Buffalo and Baltimore separating from the pack. However, there is plenty of parity in the middle tiers where playoff races could come down to December.

Here’s how the league is shaping up division by division.

NFC East: Philadelphia on Top, Giants in Rebuild

  • Philadelphia Eagles (10.9-6.1 | 57.6% Division | 76.6% Playoffs | 10.4% SB)
    The Eagles enter the season as clear favorites in the NFC East, with the only double-digit win projection and a dominant playoff outlook.

  • Washington Commanders (9-8 | 23.6% Division | 46.3% Playoffs | 2% SB)
    Washington projects as a fringe playoff team—competitive, but mostly reliant on wild-card positioning.

  • Dallas Cowboys (8.1-8.9 | 16.5% Division | 36.1% Playoffs | 1.1% SB)
    Dallas hovers right around .500, typical of a team with upside but plenty of variances depending on injuries and divisional play.

  • New York Giants (5-12 | 2.3% Division | 6.4% Playoffs | 0% SB)
    The Giants are firmly in rebuilding territory. Their low playoff odds suggest 2025-26 may be about developing young talent.

NFC North: A Three-Team Race, Bears Lag Behind

  • Detroit Lions (10.6-6.4 | 38.8% Division | 68.1% Playoffs | 8.8% SB)

  • Green Bay Packers (10.5-6.5 | 39.3% Division | 69.4% Playoffs | 7.4% SB)

  • Minnesota Vikings (8.8-8.2 | 16.4% Division | 45% Playoffs | 2.2% SB)
    Detroit and Green Bay are neck-and-neck as North favorites, both projected for 10+ wins and strong postseason chances. Minnesota lurks as a dangerous wild-card team.

  • Chicago Bears (7.2-9.8 | 5.5% Division | 21% Playoffs | 0.3% SB)
    The Bears project at the bottom, still trailing their division’s balance of talent.

NFC South: Tampa Leads, Wide-Open Behind Them

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9.9-7.1 | 56% Division | 68.3% Playoffs | 3.7% SB)
    Tampa claims the inside path to the South crown, but at under 10 projected wins, the race isn’t locked up.

  • Atlanta Falcons (8.5-8.5 | 31.1% Division | 43.3% Playoffs | 1.1% SB)
    Most likely to push Tampa, but more wild-card than division favorite.

  • Carolina Panthers (5.5-11.5 | 6.2% Division | 10.6% Playoffs | 0.1% SB)

  • New Orleans Saints (5.4-11.6 | 6.7% Division | 10% Playoffs | 0.2% SB)
    Both project as rebuilders, though Carolina’s younger roster has some long-term intrigue.

NFC West: 49ers Still Strong, Rams in the Mix

  • San Francisco 49ers (11.1-5.9 | 48.7% Division | 75.8% Playoffs | 5.8% SB)
    San Francisco enters as the favorite yet again, with one of the NFC’s best rosters and high playoff security.

  • Los Angeles Rams (9.4-7.6 | 21.5% Division | 50.2% Playoffs | 2.3% SB)

  • Arizona Cardinals (8.6-8.4 | 15.6% Division | 38.6% Playoffs | 0.7% SB)

  • Seattle Seahawks (8.3-8.7 | 14.2% Division | 34.3% Playoffs | 0.7% SB)
    The wild-card battle looks fierce. Rams hold a slight edge, but Seattle/Arizona are right in the bubble spots.

AFC East: Buffalo’s Division to Lose

  • Buffalo Bills (12.7-4.3 | 86.3% Division | 95.2% Playoffs | 16.6% SB)
    Perhaps the most dominant projection in football. Buffalo has nearly a 1-in-6 shot at winning the Super Bowl and controls the AFC East outright.

  • Miami Dolphins (7.4-9.6 | 6.1% Division | 25.8% Playoffs | 0.2% SB)

  • New England Patriots (7.2-9.8 | 4.9% Division | 23.7% Playoffs | 0.2% SB)

  • New York Jets (6.4-10.6 | 2.7% Division | 16% Playoffs | 0.1% SB)
    All hover in the lower playoff-likelihood range. Legitimate long-shots unless Buffalo suffers major setbacks.

AFC North: Baltimore & Cincinnati Lead the Race

  • Baltimore Ravens (12.1-4.9 | 70.9% Division | 89.9% Playoffs | 16.5% SB)
    Baltimore trails only Buffalo for the highest Super Bowl probability league-wide. Their 71% division chance underscores dominance.

  • Cincinnati Bengals (9.2-7.8 | 17.9% Division | 54.1% Playoffs | 1.5% SB)
    A strong enough wildcard candidate, though Ravens’ control limits their divisional upside.

  • Pittsburgh Steelers (8-9 | 9.1% Division | 34.1% Playoffs | 0.6% SB)

  • Cleveland Browns (5.5-11.5 | 2.1% Division | 9.4% Playoffs | 0.1% SB)
    Pittsburgh projects to linger near .500, while Cleveland stays near the bottom.

AFC South: Houston on the Rise

  • Houston Texans (8.9-8.1 | 42.2% Division | 53.8% Playoffs | 1.6% SB)
    The Texans emerge as a slight favorite thanks to improved roster balance.

  • Indianapolis Colts (7.6-9.4 | 27.3% Division | 36.2% Playoffs | 0.5% SB)

  • Tennessee Titans (7.2-9.8 | 20.3% Division | 29.8% Playoffs | 0.3% SB)

  • Jacksonville Jaguars (5.9-11.1 | 10.2% Division | 14.8% Playoffs | 0% SB)
    A wide-open race, but Texans hold the best edge.

AFC West: KC Faces Pressure

  • Kansas City Chiefs (11.3-5.7 | 47.3% Division | 82.3% Playoffs | 10.7% SB)
    Still elite, but no longer the overwhelming favorite they once were—lots of company in this division.

  • Los Angeles Chargers (10.1-6.9 | 27.3% Division | 65.9% Playoffs | 2.5% SB)

  • Denver Broncos (9.7-7.3 | 23.8% Division | 60.3% Playoffs | 2% SB)
    Both challengers legitimate playoff teams capable of stealing the division.

  • Las Vegas Raiders (5.7-11.3 | 1.6% Division | 8.7% Playoffs | 0.1% SB)
    The lone outlier, Raiders remain a step behind.

Biggest Storylines

  1. The Favorites Are Clear: Buffalo (16.6% SB odds) and Baltimore (16.5%) project as the league’s most likely Super Bowl entrants. Philadelphia, Kansas City, and San Francisco sit in the next tier.

  2. Wide-Open Wildcards: About 12 teams fall between 35–55% playoff odds, making the battle for wild-card spots one of the season’s defining dramas.

  3. Tight Divisions: The NFC North and AFC West stand out with no overwhelming favorite, promising exciting December title races.

  4. Rebuilders in Trouble: Giants, Panthers, Browns, Raiders, and Saints headline teams projected to struggle through 2025.

Final Take

The 2025-2026 NFL season forecasts a two-team showdown at the top (Bills, Ravens), plenty of volatility in the middle, and a handful of franchises firmly in reset mode. Still, as history shows, surprise playoff runs happen every season, and some of those 40% wild-card teams could wind up playing deep into January.

The projections give us probabilities. The season will give us the chaos.