Half Point Values for College Football Spreads

 in Betting / College Football by (updated 627 days ago)

With college football season on the horizon, it is time to excited about the best few months of betting all year. Early in the season, there are a ton of wild lines that can be picked off at sportsbooks across the land. Like having an understanding of college football totals, knowing the values of points for a spread is also very important. Different sportsbooks will offer different lines at different prices and it’s important to know what the difference in these values are to be a sharp bettor.

We’ve broken down this data a little differently than we have handled similar analyses. The general values are broken up into three tables below – tight games, games with slight favorites, and games with heavy favorites. We have also added some alternate tables at the bottom of this blog that will give more accurate values for games with a higher and lower total expectation. Consequently, this is crucial because the distribution of the spread changes as the over/under changes.

Close Game Half Point Spread Values for CFB

The following table lists the estimated half point values for the average college football game. Here we list the spreads for projected “close games” with expected spreads from 0.5 points to 8.5 points…

Total Push Prob 0.5 Point Down 0.5 Point Up 1 Point Down 1 Point Up
0.5 0% 0 5.49 0 10.97
1 2.6% 5.34 5.34 5.34 9.45
1.5 0% 5.49 4.17 10.97 8.33
2 2% 4.08 4.08 9.39 18.37
2.5 0% 4.17 16.28 8.33 32.56
3 7% 15.05 15.05 19.35 21.51
3.5 0% 16.28 6.38 32.56 12.77
4 3% 6.19 6.19 20.62 10.52
4.5 0% 6.38 4.38 12.77 8.77
5 2.1% 4.29 4.29 10.42 8.99
5.5 0% 4.38 4.82 8.77 9.64
6 2.3% 4.71 4.71 9.01 18.83
6.5 0% 4.82 16.01 9.64 32.02
7 6.9% 14.82 14.82 19.76 18.05
7.5 0% 16.01 3.09 32.02 6.19
8 1.5% 3.05 3.05 17.06 5.08
8.5 0% 3.09 2.04 6.19 4.08

Slight Favorite Half Point Spread Values for CFB

This table covers the point spreads from 9 points to 17.5 points…

Total Push Prob 0.5 Point Down 0.5 Point Up 1 Point Down 1 Point Up
9 1% 2.02 2.02 5.05 9.49
9.5 0% 2.04 7.99 4.08 15.98
10 3.7% 7.68 7.68 9.76 11.21
10.5 0% 7.99 3.52 15.98 7.04
11 1.7% 3.46 3.46 10.99 6.51
11.5 0% 3.52 3.09 7.04 6.19
12 1.5% 3.05 3.05 6.5 6.7
12.5 0% 3.09 3.73 6.19 7.47
13 1.8% 3.67 3.67 6.72 11.41
13.5 0% 3.73 8.23 7.47 16.45
14 3.8% 7.9 7.9 11.64 10.81
14.5 0% 8.23 2.88 16.45 5.76
15 1.4% 2.84 2.84 10.55 5.48
15.5 0% 2.88 2.67 5.76 5.34
16 1.3% 2.63 2.63 5.47 9.73
16.5 0% 2.67 7.53 5.34 15.05
17 3.5% 7.25 7.25 9.95 12.85
17.5 0% 7.53 5.71 15.05 11.42

Heavy Favorite Half Point Spread Values for CFB

Finally, here is the table for half-point values for games with heavy favorites…

Total Push Prob 0.5 Point Down 0.5 Point Up 1 Point Down 1 Point Up
18 2.7% 5.55 5.55 12.74 8.63
18.5 0% 5.71 3.09 11.42 6.19
19 1.5% 3.05 3.05 8.53 6.7
19.5 0% 3.09 3.73 6.19 7.47
20 1.8% 3.67 3.67 6.72 12.02
20.5 0% 3.73 8.93 7.47 17.86
21 4.1% 8.55 8.55 12.3 12.1
21.5 0% 8.93 3.52 17.86 7.04
22 1.7% 3.46 3.46 11.8 7.12
22.5 0% 3.52 3.73 7.04 7.47
23 1.8% 3.67 3.67 7.13 11.81
23.5 0% 3.73 8.7 7.47 17.39
24 4% 8.33 8.33 12.08 13.33
24.5 0% 8.7 5.04 17.39 10.08
25 2.4% 4.92 4.92 13.11 6.97
25.5 0% 5.04 2.04 10.08 4.08
26 1% 2.02 2.02 6.87 7.27
26.5 0% 2.04 5.49 4.08 10.97
27 2.6% 5.34 5.34 7.39 16.02
27.5 0% 5.49 11.61 10.97 23.21
28 5.2% 10.97 10.97 16.46 13.5
28.5 0% 11.61 2.46 23.21 4.92
29 1.2% 2.43 2.43 12.96 5.26
29.5 0% 2.46 2.88 4.92 5.76
30 1.4% 2.84 2.84 5.27 9.74
30.5 0% 2.88 7.3 5.76 14.59
31 3.4% 7.04 7.04 9.94 12.42
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Half Point Values for Games With a Low Scoring Expectation

As noted above, the distribution of scores changes depending on how many points are expected to be scored. For instance, sevens and fourteens are much more likely to be found in low scoring games versus high scoring games. Why is this? Football essentially is a combination of 2’s, 3’s, 6’s and 7’s. With touchdowns and field goals being the most common, there is simply more ways to hit those combinations if there is, say, 5 total scores in a game. Now, imagine a Big 12 shootout where there are, maybe, 15 scores in a game. One can easily see how there are a lot more ways to hit other spreads.

Here is the table that should be used for games with a total up to 45 or so…

Total Push Prob 0.5 Point Down 0.5 Point Up 1 Point Down 1 Point Up
0.5 0% 0 5.49 0 10.97
1 2.6% 5.34 5.34 5.34 9.65
1.5 0% 5.49 4.38 10.97 8.77
2 2.1% 4.29 4.29 9.6 17.98
2.5 0% 4.38 15.47 8.77 30.95
3 6.7% 14.36 14.36 18.86 21.01
3.5 0% 15.47 6.61 30.95 13.22
4 3.1% 6.4 6.4 20.23 9.91
4.5 0% 6.61 3.52 13.22 7.04
5 1.7% 3.46 3.46 9.77 8.55
5.5 0% 3.52 5.26 7.04 10.53
6 2.5% 5.13 5.13 8.62 19.9
6.5 0% 5.26 16.82 10.53 33.64
7 7.2% 15.52 15.52 20.91 18.75
7.5 0% 16.82 3.09 33.64 6.19
8 1.5% 3.05 3.05 17.66 5.08
8.5 0% 3.09 2.04 6.19 4.08
9 1% 2.02 2.02 5.05 10.3
9.5 0% 2.04 8.93 4.08 17.86
10 4.1% 8.55 8.55 10.64 12.72
10.5 0% 8.93 4.17 17.86 8.33
11 2% 4.08 4.08 12.45 6.94
11.5 0% 4.17 2.88 8.33 5.76
12 1.4% 2.84 2.84 6.9 6.29
12.5 0% 2.88 3.52 5.76 7.04
13 1.7% 3.46 3.46 6.31 12.82
13.5 0% 3.52 10.13 7.04 20.26
14 4.6% 9.64 9.64 13.21 12.58
14.5 0% 10.13 2.88 20.26 5.76
15 1.4% 2.84 2.84 12.17 5.48
15.5 0% 2.88 2.67 5.76 5.34
16 1.3% 2.63 2.63 5.47 10.13
16.5 0% 2.67 7.99 5.34 15.98
17 3.7% 7.68 7.68 10.38 13.71
17.5 0% 7.99 6.16 15.98 12.31
18 2.9% 5.97 5.97 13.59 8.03
18.5 0% 6.16 2.04 12.31 4.08
19 1% 2.02 2.02 7.88 5.86
19.5 0% 2.04 3.95 4.08 7.9
20 1.9% 3.87 3.87 5.91 12.44
20.5 0% 3.95 9.17 7.9 18.34
21 4.2% 8.77 8.77 12.73 11.48
21.5 0% 9.17 2.67 18.34 5.34
22 1.3% 2.63 2.63 11.14 6.69
22.5 0% 2.67 4.17 5.34 8.33
23 2% 4.08 4.08 6.73 13.88
23.5 0% 4.17 10.62 8.33 21.24
24 4.8% 10.08 10.08 14.29 14.29
24.5 0% 10.62 4.17 21.24 8.33
25 2% 4.08 4.08 13.88 5.92
25.5 0% 4.17 1.83 8.33 3.67
26 0.9% 1.82 1.82 5.85 7.27
26.5 0% 1.83 5.71 3.67 11.42
27 2.7% 5.55 5.55 7.4 16.44
27.5 0% 5.71 11.86 11.42 23.71
28 5.3% 11.19 11.19 16.9 13.73
28.5 0% 11.86 2.46 23.71 4.92
29 1.2% 2.43 2.43 13.16 5.26
29.5 0% 2.46 2.88 4.92 5.76
30 1.4% 2.84 2.84 5.27 9.74
30.5 0% 2.88 7.3 5.76 14.59
31 3.4% 7.04 7.04 9.94 12.22

Half Point Values for Games With a High Scoring Expectation

Lastly, here is the table that should be used for games with a total that is higher than 66 points…

Total Push Prob 0.5 Point Down 0.5 Point Up 1 Point Down 1 Point Up
0.5 0% 0 5.49 0 10.97
1 2.6% 5.34 5.34 5.34 9.24
1.5 0% 5.49 3.95 10.97 7.9
2 1.9% 3.87 3.87 9.17 18.76
2.5 0% 3.95 17.1 7.9 34.19
3 7.3% 15.75 15.75 19.85 22.01
3.5 0% 17.1 6.16 34.19 12.31
4 2.9% 5.97 5.97 21.01 11.12
4.5 0% 6.16 5.26 12.31 10.53
5 2.5% 5.13 5.13 11.08 9.44
5.5 0% 5.26 4.38 10.53 8.77
6 2.1% 4.29 4.29 9.4 17.77
6.5 0% 4.38 15.21 8.77 30.41
7 6.6% 14.13 14.13 18.63 17.56
7.5 0% 15.21 3.31 30.41 6.61
8 1.6% 3.25 3.25 16.67 5.28
8.5 0% 3.31 2.04 6.61 4.08
9 1% 2.02 2.02 5.25 8.48
9.5 0% 2.04 6.84 4.08 13.68
10 3.2% 6.61 6.61 8.68 10.12
10.5 0% 6.84 3.52 13.68 7.04
11 1.7% 3.46 3.46 9.97 6.51
11.5 0% 3.52 3.09 7.04 6.19
12 1.5% 3.05 3.05 6.5 6.7
12.5 0% 3.09 3.73 6.19 7.47
13 1.8% 3.67 3.67 6.72 10.39
13.5 0% 3.73 7.07 7.47 14.13
14 3.3% 6.83 6.83 10.55 9.72
14.5 0% 7.07 2.88 14.13 5.76
15 1.4% 2.84 2.84 9.53 5.68
15.5 0% 2.88 2.88 5.76 5.76
16 1.4% 2.84 2.84 5.68 9.53
16.5 0% 2.88 7.07 5.76 14.13
17 3.3% 6.83 6.83 9.72 12
17.5 0% 7.07 5.26 14.13 10.53
18 2.5% 5.13 5.13 11.9 8.82
18.5 0% 5.26 3.73 10.53 7.47
19 1.8% 3.67 3.67 8.76 7.13
19.5 0% 3.73 3.52 7.47 7.04
20 1.7% 3.46 3.46 7.12 11.6
20.5 0% 3.52 8.7 7.04 17.39
21 4% 8.33 8.33 11.88 12.08
21.5 0% 8.7 3.73 17.39 7.47
22 1.8% 3.67 3.67 11.81 7.13
22.5 0% 3.73 3.52 7.47 7.04
23 1.7% 3.46 3.46 7.12 9.97
23.5 0% 3.52 6.84 7.04 13.68
24 3.2% 6.61 6.61 10.12 12.4
24.5 0% 6.84 5.93 13.68 11.86
25 2.8% 5.76 5.76 12.35 8.02
25.5 0% 5.93 2.25 11.86 4.5
26 1.1% 2.22 2.22 7.89 7.28
26.5 0% 2.25 5.26 4.5 10.53
27 2.5% 5.13 5.13 7.38 15.59
27.5 0% 5.26 11.36 10.53 22.72
28 5.1% 10.75 10.75 16.02 13.28
28.5 0% 11.36 2.46 22.72 4.92
29 1.2% 2.43 2.43 12.75 5.26
29.5 0% 2.46 2.88 4.92 5.76
30 1.4% 2.84 2.84 5.27 9.74
30.5 0% 2.88 7.3 5.76 14.59
31 3.4% 7.04 7.04 9.94 12.63