Athletico Paranaense at Gremio

Updated 15 days ago

10:00 PM • Apr 17, 2024

Athletico Paranaense

20.3%25.3%54.4%

Athletico Paranaense WinDrawGremio Win

0.85Projected Goals 1.58

0Final Score 2

Gremio

Last 5 Games

Athletico Paranaense		Money Line
W 0-4	4/14 vs Cuiaba
L 0-3	12/07 at Cuiaba
W 0-3	12/03 vs Santos
T 1-1	11/30 at Cruzeiro
T 0-0	11/25 vs Vasco da Gama

Gremio		Money Line
L 1-2	4/14 at Vasco da Gama
W 3-2	12/07 at Fluminense
W 0-1	12/03 vs Vasco da Gama
W 1-2	11/30 vs Goias
L 0-3	11/26 at Atletico Mineiro

Money Line Analysis

:3.0%

	Open Line	Heritage	Bovada	BetOnline	YouWager	SportsBetting	Best Line	No-Vig Odds Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price. More on No-Vig Odds
Athletico Paranaense	+270	-	+210	+175	+178	+175	+178	+188.5
Gremio	+105	-	+135	+168	+159	+168	+168	+181.2
Draw	+245	-	+235	+220	+226	+220	+235	+235.8

	South Point	Circa	Wynn	Stations	Westgate	No-Vig Odds Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price. More on No-Vig Odds
Athletico Paranaense	-	-	-	-	-	+188.5
Gremio	-	-	-	-	-	+181.2
Draw	-	-	-	-	-	+235.8

Overall

Bet Value Inactive

Athletico Paranaense: 0.0%

Bet Value Inactive

Gremio: 20.0%

Base Rating
Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.
More on Base Rating

Athletico Paranaense: 0.0%

Gremio: 50.0%

Bet Trends
Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.
More on Bet Trends

Athletico Paranaense: 30.0%

Gremio: 0.0%

Sharp Line
Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.
More on Sharp Line

Athletico Paranaense: 0.0%

Gremio: 0.0%

Latest ML
Steam Move
A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.
More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Athletico Paranaense ML

No Steam Moves On Gremio ML

Over/Under Analysis

:3.4%

	Open Line	Heritage	Bovada	BetOnline	YouWager	SportsBetting	Best Line	No-Vig Odds Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price. More on No-Vig Odds
Over	o2¼-115	-	o2¼-115	o2¼-120	o2¼-117	o2¼-120	o2¼-115	o2¼-109
Under	u2¼-105	-	u2¼-105	u2¼+100	u2¼-103	u2¼+100	u2¼+100	u2¼+109

	Open Line	South Point	Circa	Wynn	Stations	Westgate	Best Line	No-Vig Odds Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price. More on No-Vig Odds
Over		-	-	-	-	-		o2¼-109
Under		-	-	-	-	-		u2¼+109

Overall

Bet Value Inactive

Over: 10.0%

Bet Value Inactive

Under: 0.0%

Base Rating
Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.
More on Base Rating

Over: 10.0%

Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends
Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.
More on Bet Trends

Over: 0.0%

Under: 0.0%

Sharp Line
Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.
More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%

Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U
Steam Move
A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.
More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over

No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes	45.6%


No	54.4%

Total Goals

Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 0	8.77%
Exactly 2	25.98%
Exactly 4	12.82%
Exactly 6	2.53%
Exactly 8	0.27%


Exactly 1	21.35%
Exactly 3	21.07%
Exactly 5	6.24%
Exactly 7	0.88%

Exact Goals Scored - Athletico Paranaense
Exactly 0	42.54%
Exactly 1	36.36%
Exactly 2	15.54%
Exactly 3	4.43%
Exactly 4	0.95%
Exactly 5	0.16%

Exact Goals Scored - Gremio
Exactly 0	20.62%
Exactly 1	32.56%
Exactly 2	25.70%
Exactly 3	13.53%
Exactly 4	5.34%
Exactly 5	1.69%
Exactly 6	0.44%
Exactly 7	0.10%

Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 0	32.41%
Exactly 2	20.57%
Exactly 4	2.18%


Exactly 1	36.52%
Exactly 3	7.73%
Exactly 5	0.49%

Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Athletico Paranaense
Exactly 0	67.32%
Exactly 1	26.64%
Exactly 2	5.27%
Exactly 3	0.70%

Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Gremio
Exactly 0	48.14%
Exactly 1	35.19%
Exactly 2	12.86%
Exactly 3	3.13%
Exactly 4	0.57%

Alternate Props

Spread

Athletico Paranaense
Wins by 2+ goals	6.45%
Wins by 3+ goals	1.54%
Wins by 4+ goals	0.28%

Gremio
Wins by 2+ goals	28.86%
Wins by 3+ goals	12.10%
Wins by 4+ goals	4.12%
Wins by 5+ goals	1.16%
Wins by 6+ goals	0.27%

Exact Winning Margin

Athletico Paranaense

Gremio

Athletico Paranaense
Wins by 1 goal	13.83%
Wins by 2 goals	4.91%
Wins by 3 goals	1.26%
Wins by 4 goals	0.25%

Gremio
Wins by 1 goal	25.55%
Wins by 2 goals	16.76%
Wins by 3 goals	7.98%
Wins by 4 goals	2.96%
Wins by 5 goals	0.89%
Wins by 6 goals	0.23%

Total Goals Over/Under

	Over	Under
0.5	91.23%	8.77%
1.5	69.88%	30.12%
2.5	43.90%	56.10%
3.5	22.83%	77.17%
4.5	10.01%	89.99%
5.5	3.77%	96.23%
6.5	1.24%	98.76%

Total Goals Athletico Paranaense Over/Under

	Over	Under
0.5	57.46%	42.54%
1.5	21.10%	78.90%
2.5	5.56%	94.44%
3.5	1.13%	98.87%

Total Goals Gremio Over/Under

	Over	Under
0.5	79.38%	20.62%
1.5	46.82%	53.18%
2.5	21.12%	78.88%
3.5	7.59%	92.41%
4.5	2.25%	97.75%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

	Over	Under
0.5	67.59%	32.41%
1.5	31.07%	68.93%
2.5	10.50%	89.50%
3.5	2.78%	97.22%

Score Props

Correct Score

Athletico Paranaense

Gremio

Score	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8.77%	13.85%	10.93%	5.75%	2.27%	0.72%
1	7.50%	11.84%	9.35%	4.92%	1.94%	0.61%
2	3.20%	5.06%	3.99%	2.10%	0.83%	0.26%
3	0.91%	1.44%	1.14%	0.60%	0.24%	0.07%
4	0.20%	0.31%	0.24%	0.13%	0.05%	0.02%

Athletico Paranaense
1-0	7.50%
2-0	3.20%
2-1	5.06%
3-0	0.91%
3-1	1.44%
3-2	1.14%
4-0	0.20%
4-1	0.31%
4-2	0.24%
4-3	0.13%

Draw
0-0	8.77%
1-1	11.84%
2-2	3.99%
3-3	0.60%

Gremio
0-1	13.85%
0-2	10.93%
1-2	9.35%
0-3	5.75%
1-3	4.92%
2-3	2.10%
0-4	2.27%
1-4	1.94%
2-4	0.83%
3-4	0.24%
0-5	0.72%
1-5	0.61%
2-5	0.26%

Correct Score - First Half

Athletico Paranaense

Gremio

Score	0	1	2	3	4
0	32.41%	23.69%	8.66%	2.11%	0.39%
1	12.82%	9.37%	3.43%	0.83%	0.15%
2	2.54%	1.85%	0.68%	0.17%	0.03%
3	0.33%	0.24%	0.09%	0.02%	0.00%

Athletico Paranaense
1-0	12.82%
2-0	2.54%
2-1	1.85%
3-0	0.33%
3-1	0.24%

Draw
0-0	32.41%
1-1	9.37%
2-2	0.68%

Gremio
0-1	23.69%
0-2	8.66%
1-2	3.43%
0-3	2.11%
1-3	0.83%
2-3	0.17%
0-4	0.39%
1-4	0.15%

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