Derby County at Swansea City

Updated

Derby County

17.4%22.5%60.2%
WinDrawSwansea City Win
0.87Projected Goals 1.83
0Final Score 1

Swansea City

Last 5 Games

Derby County
Money Line
W 0-2 vs Preston North End+115
W 3-2 at Plymouth Argyle+170
W 0-2 vs Coventry City+260
W 1-2 vs Blackburn+185
L 0-1 at Middlesbrough+425
Swansea City
Money Line
T 2-2 at Leeds United+1200
L 2-0 vs Burnley+285
L 0-1 at Watford+225
W 0-1 vs Middlesbrough+170
T 0-0 at Preston North End+225

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:3.3%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:4.8%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Derby County+275+292+290+275+301+275+301+304.9
Swansea City+100+122+120+120+112+120+122+137.5
Draw+225+199+180+179+195+179+199+201.2
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Derby County+270---+285+315+315+304.9
Swansea City+105----110+115+115+137.5
Draw+240---+190+190+190+201.2

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Swansea City: 40.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Derby County: 0.0%
Swansea City: 50.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Derby County: 10.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Derby County: 0.0%
Swansea City: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Derby County ML moved from +301 to +292
Swansea City ML moved from +102 to -101

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Swansea City: 10.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Derby County: 0.0%
Swansea City: 50.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Derby County: 10.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Derby County: 30.0%
Swansea City: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Derby County ML
No Steam Moves On Swansea City ML

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:3.0%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo2½+105o1½-142o1¾-110o1¾-109o1¾-110o1¾-109o1½-142o1¾+101
Underu2½-125u1½+120u1¾-110u1¾-111u1¾-110u1¾-111u1¾-110u1¾-101
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o1¾+101
Under-----u1¾-101

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 10.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 20.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Over: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes48.8%
 
No51.2%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 06.70%
Exactly 224.48%
Exactly 414.91%
Exactly 63.63%
Exactly 80.47%
 
Exactly 118.11%
Exactly 322.05%
Exactly 58.06%
Exactly 71.40%
Exactly 90.14%
Exact Goals Scored - Derby County
Exactly 041.93%
Exactly 136.44%
Exactly 215.84%
Exactly 34.59%
Exactly 41.00%
Exactly 50.17%
Exact Goals Scored - Swansea City
Exactly 015.97%
Exactly 129.30%
Exactly 226.87%
Exactly 316.43%
Exactly 47.53%
Exactly 52.76%
Exactly 60.84%
Exactly 70.22%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 028.60%
Exactly 222.41%
Exactly 42.93%
Exactly 60.15%
 
Exactly 135.80%
Exactly 39.35%
Exactly 50.73%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Derby County
Exactly 066.87%
Exactly 126.91%
Exactly 25.41%
Exactly 30.73%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Swansea City
Exactly 042.77%
Exactly 136.33%
Exactly 215.42%
Exactly 34.37%
Exactly 40.93%
Exactly 50.16%

Alternate Props

Spread

Derby County
Wins by 2+ goals5.48%
Wins by 3+ goals1.31%
Wins by 4+ goals0.24%
Swansea City
Wins by 2+ goals35.04%
Wins by 3+ goals16.45%
Wins by 4+ goals6.34%
Wins by 5+ goals2.03%
Wins by 6+ goals0.53%

Exact Winning Margin

Derby County
Swansea City
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
6
Derby County
Wins by 1 goal11.87%
Wins by 2 goals4.17%
Wins by 3 goals1.07%
Wins by 4 goals0.21%
Swansea City
Wins by 1 goal25.06%
Wins by 2 goals18.58%
Wins by 3 goals10.11%
Wins by 4 goals4.31%
Wins by 5 goals1.50%
Wins by 6 goals0.43%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.593.30%6.70%
1.575.19%24.81%
2.550.72%49.28%
3.528.66%71.34%
4.513.76%86.24%
5.55.70%94.30%
6.52.07%97.93%

Total Goals Derby County Over/Under

OverUnder
0.558.07%41.93%
1.521.62%78.38%
2.55.79%94.21%
3.51.20%98.80%

Total Goals Swansea City Over/Under

OverUnder
0.584.03%15.97%
1.554.73%45.27%
2.527.86%72.14%
3.511.43%88.57%
4.53.89%96.11%
5.51.13%98.87%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.571.40%28.60%
1.535.60%64.40%
2.513.19%86.81%
3.53.84%96.16%

Score Props

Correct Score

Derby County
Swansea City
Score012345
0
6.70%
12.29%
11.27%
6.89%
3.16%
1.16%
1
5.82%
10.68%
9.79%
5.99%
2.75%
1.01%
2
2.53%
4.64%
4.26%
2.60%
1.19%
0.44%
3
0.73%
1.34%
1.23%
0.75%
0.35%
0.13%
4
0.16%
0.29%
0.27%
0.16%
0.08%
0.03%
Derby County
1-05.82%
2-02.53%
2-14.64%
3-00.73%
3-11.34%
3-21.23%
4-00.16%
4-10.29%
4-20.27%
4-30.16%
Draw
0-06.70%
1-110.68%
2-24.26%
3-30.75%
Swansea City
0-112.29%
0-211.27%
1-29.79%
0-36.89%
1-35.99%
2-32.60%
0-43.16%
1-42.75%
2-41.19%
3-40.35%
0-51.16%
1-51.01%
2-50.44%
3-50.13%

Correct Score - First Half

Derby County
Swansea City
Score012345
0
28.60%
24.29%
10.31%
2.92%
0.62%
0.11%
1
11.51%
9.77%
4.15%
1.17%
0.25%
0.04%
2
2.32%
1.97%
0.84%
0.24%
0.05%
0.01%
3
0.31%
0.26%
0.11%
0.03%
0.01%
0.00%
Derby County
1-011.51%
2-02.32%
2-11.97%
3-00.31%
3-10.26%
3-20.11%
Draw
0-028.60%
1-19.77%
2-20.84%
Swansea City
0-124.29%
0-210.31%
1-24.15%
0-32.92%
1-31.17%
2-30.24%
0-40.62%
1-40.25%
0-50.11%
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