Aston Villa at Manchester City

Updated

Aston Villa

6.7%12.6%80.7%
WinDrawManchester City Win
0.70Projected Goals 2.78
2Final Score 3

Manchester City

Last 5 Games

Aston Villa
Money Line
T 1-1 vs Burnley+110
T 1-1 vs Crystal Palace-110
L 2-1 vs Liverpool+650
W 3-1 at Burnley+145
W 0-2 vs Norwich City-238
Manchester City
Money Line
T 2-2 at West Ham United-275
W 5-1 at Wolverhampton-425
W 0-5 vs Newcastle United-600
W 4-0 at Leeds United-320
W 1-5 vs Watford-840

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
2.3%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
4.8%
 Open LineBovadaBetOnline5DimesGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Aston Villa+1496+1300+1500+1615+1647+1500+1647+1633.8
Manchester City-630-595-600-576-784-600-576-471.4
Draw+645+650+775+743+731+775+775+752.3
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Aston Villa+1400-+1575--+1600+1600+1633.8
Manchester City-605--650---650-650-471.4
Draw+650-+690--+700+700+752.3

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Aston Villa: 30.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Manchester City: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Aston Villa: 20.0%
Manchester City: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Aston Villa: 10.0%
Manchester City: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Aston Villa ML moved from +1790 to +1647
Manchester City ML moved from -566 to -576

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Aston Villa: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Manchester City: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Aston Villa: 10.0%
Manchester City: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Aston Villa: 0.0%
Manchester City: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Aston Villa ML moved from +1800 to +1600
Manchester City ML moved from -750 to -765

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
0.6%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
1.2%
 Open LineBovadaBetOnline5DimesGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3¼-115o3¾-102-o3½-116--o3½-116o3½-109
Underu3¼-105u3¾-118-u3½+101--u3¾-118u3½+109
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3½+100o3½-110o3½-118-o3½-105o3½-120o3½-105o3½-109
Underu3½-120u3½-110u3½-102-u3½-125u3½+100u3½+100u3½+109

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 20.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 10.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 10.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 10.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes46.9%
 
No53.1%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 03.09%
Exactly 218.67%
Exactly 418.82%
Exactly 67.59%
Exactly 81.64%
Exactly 100.22%
 
Exactly 110.74%
Exactly 321.65%
Exactly 513.09%
Exactly 73.77%
Exactly 90.63%
Exact Goals Scored - Aston Villa
Exactly 050.00%
Exactly 134.66%
Exactly 212.01%
Exactly 32.77%
Exactly 40.48%
Exact Goals Scored - Manchester City
Exactly 06.18%
Exactly 117.20%
Exactly 223.94%
Exactly 322.22%
Exactly 415.47%
Exactly 58.62%
Exactly 64.00%
Exactly 71.59%
Exactly 80.55%
Exactly 90.17%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 019.99%
Exactly 225.91%
Exactly 45.60%
Exactly 60.48%
 
Exactly 132.18%
Exactly 313.91%
Exactly 51.80%
Exactly 70.11%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Aston Villa
Exactly 072.55%
Exactly 123.28%
Exactly 23.74%
Exactly 30.40%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Manchester City
Exactly 027.55%
Exactly 135.52%
Exactly 222.89%
Exactly 39.84%
Exactly 43.17%
Exactly 50.82%
Exactly 60.18%

Alternate Props

Spread

Aston Villa
Wins by 2+ goals1.62%
Wins by 3+ goals0.28%
Manchester City
Wins by 2+ goals60.62%
Wins by 3+ goals38.83%
Wins by 4+ goals21.20%
Wins by 5+ goals9.95%
Wins by 6+ goals4.05%
Wins by 7+ goals1.43%
Wins by 8+ goals0.42%

Exact Winning Margin

Aston Villa
Manchester City
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Aston Villa
Wins by 1 goal4.98%
Wins by 2 goals1.33%
Wins by 3 goals0.25%
Manchester City
Wins by 1 goal20.04%
Wins by 2 goals21.79%
Wins by 3 goals17.63%
Wins by 4 goals11.25%
Wins by 5 goals5.90%
Wins by 6 goals2.62%
Wins by 7 goals1.01%
Wins by 8 goals0.34%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.596.91%3.09%
1.586.17%13.83%
2.567.50%32.50%
3.545.85%54.15%
4.527.04%72.96%
5.513.95%86.05%
6.56.36%93.64%
7.52.59%97.41%

Total Goals Aston Villa Over/Under

OverUnder
0.550.00%50.00%
1.515.34%84.66%
2.53.33%96.67%

Total Goals Manchester City Over/Under

OverUnder
0.593.82%6.18%
1.576.63%23.37%
2.552.69%47.31%
3.530.46%69.54%
4.514.99%85.01%
5.56.38%93.62%
6.52.38%97.62%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.580.01%19.99%
1.547.83%52.17%
2.521.93%78.07%
3.58.02%91.98%
4.52.42%97.58%

Score Props

Correct Score

Aston Villa
Manchester City
Score012345
0
3.09%
8.60%
11.97%
11.11%
7.74%
4.31%
1
2.14%
5.96%
8.30%
7.70%
5.36%
2.99%
2
0.74%
2.07%
2.88%
2.67%
1.86%
1.03%
3
0.17%
0.48%
0.66%
0.62%
0.43%
0.24%
Aston Villa
1-02.14%
2-00.74%
2-12.07%
3-00.17%
3-10.48%
3-20.66%
Draw
0-03.09%
1-15.96%
2-22.88%
3-30.62%
Manchester City
0-18.60%
0-211.97%
1-28.30%
0-311.11%
1-37.70%
2-32.67%
0-47.74%
1-45.36%
2-41.86%
3-40.43%
0-54.31%
1-52.99%
2-51.03%
3-50.24%

Correct Score - First Half

Aston Villa
Manchester City
Score0123456
0
19.99%
25.77%
16.61%
7.14%
2.30%
0.59%
0.13%
1
6.41%
8.27%
5.33%
2.29%
0.74%
0.19%
0.04%
2
1.03%
1.33%
0.86%
0.37%
0.12%
0.03%
0.01%
3
0.11%
0.14%
0.09%
0.04%
0.01%
0.00%
0.00%
Aston Villa
1-06.41%
2-01.03%
2-11.33%
3-00.11%
3-10.14%
Draw
0-019.99%
1-18.27%
2-20.86%
Manchester City
0-125.77%
0-216.61%
1-25.33%
0-37.14%
1-32.29%
2-30.37%
0-42.30%
1-40.74%
2-40.12%
0-50.59%
1-50.19%
0-60.13%