Brighton at Aston Villa

Updated

Brighton and Hove Albion

36.9%28.6%34.5%
Brighton WinDrawAston Villa Win
1.16Projected Goals 1.11
1Final Score 2

Aston Villa

Last 5 Games

Brighton and Hove Albion
Money Line
T 1-1 vs Manchester City+285
W 1-3 vs Southampton-470
L 1-4 at Newcastle United+311
W 3-0 at Arsenal+335
L 5-1 vs Everton-305
Aston Villa
Money Line
T 1-1 at Liverpool+540
W 1-2 vs Tottenham+130
L 0-1 at Wolverhampton+134
L 0-1 at Manchester United+365
W 0-1 vs Fulham-140

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
1.7%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
4.5%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnline5DimesSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Brighton+200+284+265+293+289+293+293+306.7
Aston Villa+130-114-115-113-108-113-108-105.2
Draw+255+305+310+300+299+300+310+314.0
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Brighton+195-+275-+215+275+275+306.7
Aston Villa-110--120--115-115-115-105.2
Draw+275-+307-+260+300+307+314.0

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Brighton: 30.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Brighton: 50.0%
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Brighton: 0.0%
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Brighton ML moved from +297 to +288
Aston Villa ML moved from -105 to -115

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Brighton: 50.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Brighton: 50.0%
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Brighton: 0.0%
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Brighton ML moved from +305 to +270
Aston Villa ML moved from -115 to -135

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
1.2%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
2.9%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnline5DimesSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo2¾-118o3-134o3¼-102o3¼+104o3-121o3¼+104o3-121o3¼+111
Underu2¾-102u3+114u3¼-118u3¼-120u3+106u3¼-120u3¼-118u3¼-111
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3-125o3-130o3-130-o3-135o3-135o3-130o3¼+111
Underu3-105u3+110u3+110-u3+105u3+115u3+115u3¼-111

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 20.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 20.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 30.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 20.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 10.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

The Over moved from o3-115 to o3-135
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes46.0%
 
No54.0%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 010.33%
Exactly 226.62%
Exactly 411.43%
Exactly 61.96%
Exactly 80.18%
 
Exactly 123.45%
Exactly 320.14%
Exactly 55.19%
Exactly 70.64%
Exact Goals Scored - Brighton and Hove Albion
Exactly 031.38%
Exactly 136.37%
Exactly 221.08%
Exactly 38.14%
Exactly 42.36%
Exactly 50.55%
Exactly 60.11%
Exact Goals Scored - Aston Villa
Exactly 032.91%
Exactly 136.58%
Exactly 220.33%
Exactly 37.53%
Exactly 42.09%
Exactly 50.47%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 034.95%
Exactly 219.31%
Exactly 41.78%
 
Exactly 136.74%
Exactly 36.77%
Exactly 50.37%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Brighton and Hove Albion
Exactly 058.47%
Exactly 131.38%
Exactly 28.42%
Exactly 31.51%
Exactly 40.20%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Aston Villa
Exactly 059.77%
Exactly 130.76%
Exactly 27.91%
Exactly 31.36%
Exactly 40.17%

Alternate Props

Spread

Brighton and Hove Albion
Wins by 2+ goals15.35%
Wins by 3+ goals4.91%
Wins by 4+ goals1.25%
Wins by 5+ goals0.25%
Aston Villa
Wins by 2+ goals13.79%
Wins by 3+ goals4.19%
Wins by 4+ goals0.97%
Wins by 5+ goals0.15%

Exact Winning Margin

Brighton and Hove Albion
Aston Villa
5
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
Brighton and Hove Albion
Wins by 1 goal21.52%
Wins by 2 goals10.44%
Wins by 3 goals3.66%
Wins by 4 goals1.00%
Wins by 5 goals0.22%
Aston Villa
Wins by 1 goal20.64%
Wins by 2 goals9.60%
Wins by 3 goals3.22%
Wins by 4 goals0.83%
Wins by 5 goals0.15%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.589.67%10.33%
1.566.23%33.77%
2.539.61%60.39%
3.519.47%80.53%
4.58.03%91.97%
5.52.84%97.16%

Total Goals Brighton and Hove Albion Over/Under

OverUnder
0.568.62%31.38%
1.532.25%67.75%
2.511.17%88.83%
3.53.03%96.97%

Total Goals Aston Villa Over/Under

OverUnder
0.567.09%32.91%
1.530.52%69.48%
2.510.19%89.81%
3.52.66%97.34%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.565.05%34.95%
1.528.31%71.69%
2.59.00%91.00%
3.52.23%97.77%

Score Props

Correct Score

Brighton
Aston Villa
Score012345
0
10.33%
11.48%
6.38%
2.36%
0.66%
0.15%
1
11.97%
13.30%
7.39%
2.74%
0.76%
0.17%
2
6.94%
7.71%
4.28%
1.59%
0.44%
0.10%
3
2.68%
2.98%
1.65%
0.61%
0.17%
0.04%
4
0.78%
0.86%
0.48%
0.18%
0.05%
0.01%
5
0.18%
0.20%
0.11%
0.04%
0.01%
0.00%
Brighton and Hove Albion
1-011.97%
2-06.94%
2-17.71%
3-02.68%
3-12.98%
3-21.65%
4-00.78%
4-10.86%
4-20.48%
4-30.18%
5-00.18%
5-10.20%
5-20.11%
Draw
0-010.33%
1-113.30%
2-24.28%
3-30.61%
Aston Villa
0-111.48%
0-26.38%
1-27.39%
0-32.36%
1-32.74%
2-31.59%
0-40.66%
1-40.76%
2-40.44%
3-40.17%
0-50.15%
1-50.17%

Correct Score - First Half

Brighton
Aston Villa
Score01234
0
34.95%
17.99%
4.63%
0.79%
0.10%
1
18.75%
9.65%
2.48%
0.43%
0.05%
2
5.03%
2.59%
0.67%
0.11%
0.01%
3
0.90%
0.46%
0.12%
0.02%
0.00%
4
0.12%
0.06%
0.02%
0.00%
0.00%
Brighton and Hove Albion
1-018.75%
2-05.03%
2-12.59%
3-00.90%
3-10.46%
3-20.12%
4-00.12%
Draw
0-034.95%
1-19.65%
2-20.67%
Aston Villa
0-117.99%
0-24.63%
1-22.48%
0-30.79%
1-30.43%
2-30.11%
0-40.10%